Did Stannis honestly ever have a chance?

[LordPathera]

He started off in a bad spot since he only had Dragonstone, no popular support and the Stormlands declared for Renly.

COK- After he has Renly killed and gets the Stormlands under his control, he loses them again after Blackwater in addition to devastating damage to his fleet which was his strongest asset at the time.

SOS/AFFC- Davos convinces him to sail northward to aid the Wall against the Wildlings, but abandons his two remaining fortresses in the South with only a token defense garrison. Dragonstone falls to the Crown shortly after he departs and Storm's End appears to be easy pickings for (F)Aegon and the Golden Company.

DWD- Now Stannis is effectively trapped in the North and the only reason that any Northern House is allied to him is for revenge against the Frey-Bolton Coaltion and if we take the GNC into consideration, the best case scenario doesn't look to benefit Stannis too much. The Northmen are using Stannis for their own goals and as soon as they no longer have a common enemy, they most likely won't bend knee and pledge themselves to Stannis as King. In fact, Jon refused his offer of being legitimized as a Stark/Lord of Winterfell and denied Stannis of his best chance of uniting the North under his banner.

In hindsight, the only thing that gave him a realistic chance in the first place was that an act of god caused his brother to die which fragmented his very large army, a part of which declared for Stannis. Could Stannis have taken King's Landing with just his fleet? He could cause severe damage assuming that ships in asoiaf have canons and if the crews of the ship were trained for combat, but he wouldn't be able to take or hold the city.

Sure, he's lawfully Robert's heir. But even that's put into doubt by public opinion because there's no proof that Cercei's children aren't Robert's apart from an old genealogical book and an appearance comparison to Robert's bastards who are all either dead or in hiding. He had no real power base starting off and has yet to procure a mutually beneficial alliance.

So is he just a Red Herring? Is he even more doomed than Robb was? Sure, Robb made a few critical mistakes, but at least he still had two regions to fall back on and he can't be held accountable for the bad luck that the North suffered through the Ironborn invasion.

Stannis on the other hand, has only had a maximum of one region fully supporting him tentatively and they quickly abandoned him after Blackwater.

[Raven in Winter]

Cue the Stan Stans!

Don't underestimate the Stanman! He's managed to pull through some of the roughest times!

[grand old duke of stark]

Nothing against Stannis, but GRRM has stacked the deck in favour of Jon and Dany and maybe fAegon. I don't think Stannis ever had a chance once Ned was dead and couldn't broker his accession to the throne. His rebuff of the Seven and embrace of Mel and her darkish arts certainly would put off some would-be followers. The shame of it is he's a qualified man who would probably make a decent king. But he's neither Ice nor Fire and that's what this story is all about.

[Rhymes with Weak]

He's Stannis. Everyone who isn't was royally fucked from the get-go.

[IRON BANK]

Stannis has a legitimate shot, however as you have so well pointed out his chances are slim and becoming slimmer. Great leader, tactitian, and even lets people move through the ranks of society. which is quite a reform for westeros. Still this alone cannot refute what you have brought out as great main points. Stannis is alone and at the becking call of the northman, his house is taken and lands occupied, He has know sons, and 1 sickly child. The only woman he can procreate with is a witch who bears shadow babies. This does not look good for a society who prides themselves on inherightable rights, and expects its nobles to carry a high moral code. The one thing Stannis does do well is fight, Stannis is driven and a proven leader. When you look at the characters who come into contact with Stannis they learn how its done. Do you think Jon would have took Slynts head off as quickly before he met Stannis. What about Davos a criminal, now with Stannis guidance he tells know lies and is focused for a real cause. Theon and Asha are next Notice how Asha realizes the folly of her little romp through the north and some of the realizations of what Stannis will do and not do for success. Stannis is what the Game is played like w/o freinds just duty, honor, sweat and blood.

[Free Northman]

Stannis serves a plot purpose. He is mid series filler.

Note how he does not feature in any of the long term prophecies, other than as a lie that has to be slain.

Come now folks. Stannis never had a chance.

[FranklynFowler]

He's actually the heir to the Throne under Targaryen rule (Assuming Griff is fake) so if Dany dies, he 's the rightful Targ King along with the rightful Baratheon King.

[Sir Tan Lee]

No, Stannis never had a chance. Even now he doesn't stand a chance in a straight up fight. Against any of the usurpers. He leads a starving ragged army of 2-3 thousand soldiers who are freezing in the snow.

- The crown. The Crown's army is at least 70 thousand strong. They would mop him off the edge of the world.

- Iron Born. The Iron born army isn't as strong but we can assume they have a good 20 thousand soldiers.

- Bolton. Roose Bolton's army has at least 5 thousand but I'd put my own estimates more at 8-12 thousand. Stannis doesn't really have a chance here. If he wins then it would be an example of a good strategic move not because he has a better army.

I think Stannis will win but not because he did anything. I just think that Manderly and a few other houses will backstab Roose.

[Ours if the Fury]

I think differently, everyone who has had good luck, eventually has a streak of bad..

Stannis has gone against the odds, and favour and has had nothing but bad luck but now, he may just finally get the good luck... he will be there to the end... wether he wins or not... different story...

[Dagon]

He may have no chance in becoming King, but I find him incredibly bad ass nonetheless. Even his name is cool.

[Mad Monkey]

He's actually the heir to the Throne under Targaryen rule (Assuming Griff is fake) so if Dany dies, he 's the rightful Targ King along with the rightful Baratheon King.

Technically, he is Daenerys's heir right now, isn't he? He is her eldest living known relative I think. She doesn't know about Aegon and almost no one knows about Jon. So, technically, he's not just King of Westeros under the Baratheon dynasty but heir to Meereen from his queenly cousin. And technically I think that he is Myrcella's heir too, since if she wasn't a bastard he would ordinarily come after her in the succession under Andal primogeniture (of course he can't actually inherit from her because he is attainted).

So that's something he has going for him. Everyone's family tree seems to include him somehow.

[MasterJack]

He would have no chance if it was a 1vs1 war. But there are multiple enemy and he doesnt need to fight em all. He only need to fight the last battle when all the other destroyed eachother.

Simple random number exemple:

A=100 000 men
B=150 000 men
C= 75 000 men
S= 40 000 men

If B destroy A and has still 50 000 men left
Then C destroys B and has 25 000 men left
Finally S only has to fight 25 000 men to win the wars. :D

[Arya kiddin']

Stannis serves a plot purpose. He is mid series filler.

Note how he does not feature in any of the long term prophecies, other than as a lie that has to be slain.

Come now folks. Stannis never had a chance.

Just so.

But yes, he is one of those characters who are not the main character, but are vastly more interesting anyway.

[Fat Mac]

Stannis spits in the face of chance.

Currently he and his army are starving in the snow. But this isn't even the most dire situation he's been in in his life.

But as to his overall likelihood of being king, I think it's slim. I think he'll die in a grand battle against the Others. Maybe Shireen can get the throne, in which case, Stannis would have succeeded.

[FranklynFowler]

Technically, he is Daenerys's heir right now, isn't he? He is her eldest living known relative I think. She doesn't know about Aegon and almost no one knows about Jon. So, technically, he's not just King of Westeros under the Baratheon dynasty but heir to Meereen from his queenly cousin. And technically I think that he is Myrcella's heir too, since if she wasn't a bastard he would ordinarily come after her in the succession under Andal primogeniture (of course he can't actually inherit from her because he is attainted).

So that's something he has going for him. Everyone's family tree seems to include him somehow.

He's only attainted if he loses lol

[Razha]

Stanis could have had good chances if he botherd to change his personality.

1. If he showed some brotherly love and attention to Renly during his childhood (the youngest Baratheon boy practically grew orphan - Stanis could have acted as father figure or like protective older brother) this could have helped them to form stronger bodn and avoid Renly sabotaging Staniss's claims in the future.

2. Robert is manipulated and duped by everyone who justs makes slight effort to do so - Stanis could have done the same.

3. He played too safe after death of Jon Arryn - what if he bothered to inform Robert of his suspicions inseted of running away to Dragonstone? Risky - yes, but those who don't take risks....

[Florina Laufeyson]

Stannis need(ed) allies. He doesnt have many. Now, hes got a bit more than he started with but its still not much. Stannis did do a pretty good whammy in getting the North all bent out for Bolton Blood.

Stannis is the Dark Horse and this is probably why people root for him. "Guy with a 1 in a million chance? Hes got my money! Bring it!" I think he'll ultimately fail (quite hard) but not without doing something really freaking cool first. Stannis is not the sort who goes quietly into the night...

[PrinceHenryris]

Once he assassinated Renly, he had one chance, and he muffed it. He named Imry Florent commander of his fleet instead of Davos. Davos wouldn't have charged blindly at KL, and with his "smuggler's eye", sniffed out the trap even sooner.

If Stannis's fleet had arrived relatively intact, it's likely that KL would have fallen before the Tyrell/Lannister forces arrived.

[leviathan800]

His golden opportunity was the attack of blackwater. And he couldnt wait cause that was he one and only chance. Since then no one has chance of getting the IT in open battle against at least 80 000 Tyrell troops (unless Dany's drgons get big). However he has come back into the game with trying to reunite the North, I dont believe in this northern conspiracy theory. But Ageon doesnt have enough troops to keep IT, Golden Company and perhaps Dorne, is not enough to go up against the Tyrell-Lannister forces straight up. But Stannis has got a chance again since: 1) reuniting the North, next can reunite riverlands by taking out the freys, thats how you build alliances having a common enemy 2) Iron Bank of Braavos with at least 10 000 would be a boost 3) If the Vale could join him, hopefully Sansa gives LF the boot, and helps Stannis after finding her brother. So wouldnt count him out just yet.

[ninewinter]

I think if Massey comes back with an army, 20k or so before Dany arrives, Stannis could still win. The Northmen will finally rally to his cause, and others too. Who knows what will Sansa think when he learns his half brother is in league with the rightful King?

What I know is Grrm can surprise us still. You think Stannis is beaten, I say let's wait.