[TWOW Spoilers] Alayne I, v. 2

[James Arryn]

You know, I've been thinking about this since we debated this a couple of days ago, and I think I agree with you on this now. If Harry was so hard to manipulate, then Harry would be the main character in the Vale storyline, not Sansa.

?

King's Landing was filled with people harder to manipulate than Ned or Sansa.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

?

King's Landing was filled with people harder to manipulate than Ned or Sansa.

What I mean is, it's pretty obvious that Sansa is going to come into her own (like Arya, and Bran) and affect the story in a major way. If Harry is hard to manipulate, and Sansa's only hold on power is through a marriage to Harry, then Harry is the important character and we've been wasting our time following Sansa because she'll just be there to Harry's left unable to do much of interest. Since I don't think that GRRM would fall into that trap, I think Sansa will find a way to steer him in the right direction.

[John Doe]

Doing it when meeting someone you may be betrothed to, in front of a lot of people, is a douchy move.

Granted, but by the standards of noblemen we encountered he seems to be one of the nicer guys out there.

[James Arryn]

What I mean is, it's pretty obvious that Sansa is going to come into her own (like Arya, and Bran) and affect the story in a major way. If Harry is hard to manipulate, and Sansa's only hold on power is through a marriage to Harry, then Harry is the important character and we've been wasting our time following Sansa because she'll just be there to Harry's left unable to do much of interest. Since I don't think that GRRM would fall into that trap, I think Sansa will find a way to steer him in the right direction.

I agree HTH has a much lower probable shelf life than Sansa, but I don't think it's based on gullibility. I think I get what you're saying, but our interest is primarily focused by w/e GRRM chooses to look at. For example Oberyn Martell was, briefly, imo as interesting as we've seen, but that's not where george decided to go, so he's pushing up sunflowers.

Iow, i don't think the internal logic hinges on anything objective like you seem to. If it did the books would be more predictable and imo less interesting than they are.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I agree HTH has a much lower probable shelf life than Sansa, but I don't think it's based on gullibility. I think I get what you're saying, but our interest is primarily focused by w/e GRRM chooses to look at. For example Oberyn Martell was, briefly, imo as interesting as we've seen, but that's not where george decided to go, so he's pushing up sunflowers.

Iow, i don't think the internal logic hinges on anything objective like you seem to. If it did the books would be more predictable and imo less interesting than they are.

I think the books are 'predictable' in broad strokes, in the sense that George doesn't seem to like anti-climax, doesn't throw in twists without setting them up extensively in advance, and otherwise is generally trying to use the basic rules of storytelling. And almost every big plot 'twist' was predicted by a large percentage of the fan community before it happened. That includes the rise of Aegon Targaryen, Ned and Robb dying, and much else. This is because George plays fair and doesn't just throw in surprises for no reason.

[juanml82]

What I mean is, it's pretty obvious that Sansa is going to come into her own (like Arya, and Bran) and affect the story in a major way. If Harry is hard to manipulate, and Sansa's only hold on power is through a marriage to Harry, then Harry is the important character and we've been wasting our time following Sansa because she'll just be there to Harry's left unable to do much of interest. Since I don't think that GRRM would fall into that trap, I think Sansa will find a way to steer him in the right direction.

Well, Sansa can do things to make Harry happier with her and thus easier to manipulate which Littlefinger can't. But in any case, the idea of Littlefinger actually backing Robert Arryn means the marriage of Sansa and Harry is a red herring and might never happen. If Littlefinger supports Robert, whatever way Sansa finds to reach a position of power doesn't include a marriage to HtH.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Well, Sansa can do things to make Harry happier with her and thus easier to manipulate which Littlefinger can't. But in any case, the idea of Littlefinger actually backing Robert Arryn means the marriage of Sansa and Harry is a red herring and might never happen. If Littlefinger supports Robert, whatever way Sansa finds to reach a position of power doesn't include a marriage to HtH.

I can't imagine that Littlefinger is actually supporting Robert Arryn _and_ slowly poisoning him at the same time.

[juanml82]

I can't imagine that Littlefinger is actually supporting Robert Arryn _and_ slowly poisoning him at the same time.

And how much is Littlefinger - as opposed to Sansa - actually poisoning him?

[Colonel Green]

Well, Sansa can do things to make Harry happier with her and thus easier to manipulate which Littlefinger can't. But in any case, the idea of Littlefinger actually backing Robert Arryn means the marriage of Sansa and Harry is a red herring and might never happen. If Littlefinger supports Robert, whatever way Sansa finds to reach a position of power doesn't include a marriage to HtH.

But Littlefinger supporting Robert doesn't really make much sense, given his actual actions.

[juanml82]

But Littlefinger supporting Robert doesn't really make much sense, given his actual actions.

Don't they?

He colludes with Lysa in avoiding to have him fostered outside his reach.

He burns the Seven Kingdoms, except Robert's dominions.

He kills his mother, yes, but she was saying too much and, after all, was grooming Robert into becoming decoration atop a pike.

The sweetsleep thing is tricky, but the only time he did it for sure was when he needed him presentable because he was trying to avoid being executed for his mother's assassination and, even more, setting the bases to continue raising him and rule in his behalf. We don't know if Littlefinger had him drugged for the feast of the TWOW chapter.

We have seen Robert become more aware, perhaps even too much, of the political situation in the Vale in this chapter.

He's being led to genuinely like a great match for an arranged marriage.

It's Sansa's idea, but the Winged Knights can give him an example so he can grow into the martial lord Westerosi nobles like

His support of Harry might be a red herring, made to confound everyone regarding his true intentions and keep his hands clean when/if he has him killed, removing any potential rival Robert's enemies might rally around and helping secure his rule of the Vale. Harrold Hardying does parade with the Arryn sigil, after all.

The plan he presents to Sansa by the end of AFFC makes no sense for him

[Lord Varys]

Well, in the Robert plot there is the fact of the possible antidote thing to consider. Back from the last Alayne chapter of AFfC about Robert complaining that his drink is not sweet at all.

If Littlefinger wanted to test Sansa's loyalities it could be interesting to make her believe he'd poisoning Robert while he is not, in fact, doing that to see what she is going to do about that.

But regardless of his motivation Robert's death should not be planned for a while. It only makes sense to kill him after the marriage. Only then can Harry no longer change him mind. But even in such scenario Littlefinger would lose his office as Lord Protector and this would inevitably diminish his power. The guys in KL had to suffer Littlefinger because they needed him or could not fire him. That's how he could influence and manipulate them. Harry would not necessarily need Littlefinger

As to Harry's age:

Wasn't eighteen given back in AFfC?

[Colonel Green]

The plan he presents to Sansa by the end of AFFC makes no sense for him

What about it doesn't make sense?

Littlefinger hasn't done anything to make Robert a remotely credible lord. Indeed, he basically ignores him, from what we've seen.

The idea that Harry needs to be killed to secure Robert's inheritance really doesn't make sense. There's never been the slightest hint of a threat to Robert's lordship, nor that anyone would back Harry against Robert.

[Ghosts Lunch]

Well, Littlefinger uses men and women both, actually. And he is not really involved in this whole brothel business the way he is in the show. He is no pimp but rather a shareholder of some brothels.

In the long run I'd actually like him to see Catelyn again. If there is somebody who deserves to deal with him she is. And she is also the only one who can take what is most precious to him - the illusion that she actually did love and slept with him once.

Yes this is a fair point

From an intelligence POV he is a "Master of Spies", basically a Master of Spies needs to operate out of a public place where many people/officials of varying ranks (including spies in his network reporting information) come and go without suspicion

Varys obviously operates differently, via the Red Keep network and his disguises he moves around everywhere and his spy network of poor impoverished "little birds" who don't attract much attention are omnipresent

Yeah the show is playing it up (where is is basically merged with Chatalaya [ah spelling]) , but as we heard from Tyrion LF has his hand in a lot of Businesses, eg quite notably he climbed the ladder as a customs official, customs official basically means Ports and Trade with lots of people coming and going and unlike what the show portrays this is probably much much more significant than his brothel interests (sometimes they are one and the same, as we learn from Sams POV sailors frequent these with tales/information on Dragons and such)

Back to Ports though, obviously this is important firstly in being able to sneak in on a ship to KL, steal Sansa out all "undetected" which but also as we see in the Chapter he can realistically order all shipments out of Gulltown in food to be stopped despite having major authority issues as LP of the Vale and other orders would be undermined and there's probably some others, eg the presence of that Braavosi IB ship in White Harbour in the Davos POV and its implications whcih I won't go into now

[Ghosts Lunch]

Don't they?

He colludes with Lysa in avoiding to have him fostered outside his reach.

He burns the Seven Kingdoms, except Robert's dominions.

He kills his mother, yes, but she was saying too much and, after all, was grooming Robert into becoming decoration atop a pike.

The sweetsleep thing is tricky, but the only time he did it for sure was when he needed him presentable because he was trying to avoid being executed for his mother's assassination and, even more, setting the bases to continue raising him and rule in his behalf. We don't know if Littlefinger had him drugged for the feast of the TWOW chapter.

We have seen Robert become more aware, perhaps even too much, of the political situation in the Vale in this chapter.

He's being led to genuinely like a great match for an arranged marriage.

It's Sansa's idea, but the Winged Knights can give him an example so he can grow into the martial lord Westerosi nobles like

His support of Harry might be a red herring, made to confound everyone regarding his true intentions and keep his hands clean when/if he has him killed, removing any potential rival Robert's enemies might rally around and helping secure his rule of the Vale. Harrold Hardying does parade with the Arryn sigil, after all.

The plan he presents to Sansa by the end of AFFC makes no sense for him

Yeah LF is always saying one thing and doing something else

As we can see HtH doesen't trust him, which is the point of the rudeness to Sansa not the fact he is "a jerk", it is to show HtH is not entirely controllable even though he is being prodded by Waynwood and he is going along with it reluctantly (initially - though I reckon Sansa is legitimately winning him over to herself specifically)

Sweetrobin meanwhile is controllable through a combination of being drugged by Coleman and firstly through Lysa and as we have seen Alayne is now the person who can "control" him

Makes more sense for LF to be wanting to kill HtH who is a candidate for his enemies to rally around - he is after all a close resemblance to Jon Arryn in his youth and strong, he can sell the idea of the marriage meaning Sansa can get WF back as Sansa Stark to get her comfortable and settled

Ultimately though with only Sweetrobin and the 8 winged hostages from prominent families he's be able to shore up his position

For mine HtH looks more and more like going the way of Ser Hugh of the Vale at any moment, another nod back to AGoT in a Sansa WoW chapter as this has all felt like those early chapters at Castle Darry, the Hands Tourney and that Feast with Septa Mordane, Joffrey and the Hound breaking down which is probably the point (but this is something of an inverse/polarised form).

Going by the Tapestries being in reverse though means HtH may end up surviving perhaps, and Lyn Corbray unlike the Mountain won't outright kill HtH out of revenge for the merchant marriage robbing him of his perceived inheritance. The Lyn Corbray anger thing is interesting, might be the first signs of LF over-reach...

I've thought about it more and IMO LF plan in conjunction with the IB IMO involves Stannis at the head, Rickon as Liege Lord in the North (I reckon the Purple Braavosi ship in WH was the IB pressuring Manderly to support Stannis) and then Sansa Tully/Stark will shore up the RL with a controlled Sweetrobin the Vale

Sansa opting to "giver her favour to someone else" is a sign to me she is slowly going to be going her own way as she is breaking from LF's instructions (although it ironically probably makes HtH actually like her), between this which reminds me of Rhaegar giving his favour to Lyanna instead of Elia (a big moment in kicking off Roberts Rebellion), the "hair by the fire" (Blackfyre) remark and the Tapestries in reverse (Targ in one case, Roberts in another) makes me wonder about the Aegon arc (which is about reversing Roberts rebellion)

Personally I am wondering if Alayne is going to turn out to be a inverse Lysa and break away from him in due course and choose to go over to Varys (via the Mad Mouse who I reckon she will give her favour to, Mad Mouse is like an inverse Ser Dontos)?

There's a larger LF vs Varys battle looming which will take place within a Stannis versus Aegon/Baratheon vs Targaryen (or rather Blackfyre)/Stag vs the Dragon

The fact that Sweetrobin showed signs of self awareness without him repeating who said it is highly important, eg he is an anti-Tommen who we all know rubber stamps everything, so I reckon he may ironically be the one who ends up undermining LF as he is an anti-Bran Greenseer/Warg IMO and he will come into power in his own right (Maestar Colemans days are numbered lol), but his possessiveness of Alayne means he may follow her into aligning with Aegon for a time.

[Hos the Hostage]

I think Sansa would give her favor to someone other than these people:

Lothar Brune: Is her father's right hand man, unattractive and is a better match for Mya than Alayne. And not a knight fighting for the wings.

Mad mouse: Mice are small creatures, and Shadrich is only a hedge knight.

Wallace Waynwood: Harry will see right through that. The Alayne he just met is too fiesty to favor a boy like Wallace. Though I like the possibility.

Lyn Corbray: Everyone knows he is gay. He is not going to ask Sansa's favor, especially since he is posing as LF's foe.

[Mithras]

Lothor will wear the favor of Mya by promising to kick Mychel's ass.

I don't think Shadrich will participate in the joust or the melee.

Lyn cannot be seen as wearing the favor of the daughter of the man he seemingly hates.

I don't think it would be wise to give her favor to the Waynwoods and ignore Harry. Besides, Alayne said that her favor was promised but the Waynwoods came with Harry and they cannot be the ones promised for her favor. Sansa should find someone who arrived before the Waynwoods.

I think the handsome, youngest Sisterman that came the day before is the best candidate.

[Ghosts Lunch]

Shadrich isn't a handpicked minion, he's just a guy hunting for the bounty put out on her.

That's premised on the idea that Shadrich is going to succeed, which I think is dubious. I see no real value in Sansa's plot in shipping her off to yet another hostage situation, except one where she has no possible leverage or connection with the person holding her hostage.

I just had a thought on all of this

Mad Mouse/Ser Shadrich knows Brienne is hunting for Sansa, he may not be able to smuggle or steal her out himself but he might be able to do so with Briennes help at some point in the future (EDIT: Even Jaimie may assist in this process if he is made to hold true to his vows by LS)

Ironically it was the idea that Brienne and Pod snow scene in the trailers is them taking on Umbers role but in this case helping Reek and Sansa escape, in this case they are fulfilling Reeks rescue arc of Jeyne Poole on the one hand while perhaps fulfilling some rescue or kidnap arc of Sansa/Alayne out of the Vale but done from Winterfell instead on the other. Looking ahead in show terms, Jaime going to Dorne to "rescue" Myrcella on behalf of Cersei in S5 and then in S6 going to RL to help Brienne "rescue Sansa" as they come down from the north on behalf of a promise made to Cat (both of them mothers) would be fascinating plot wise and points to his toing and froing between "Kingslayer" and "Jaime" that the Cersei/Brienne conflict represents in him (we saw this conflict in S4 which people have said was bad writing but it could end up being good writing if S4 was about Jaimie being torn in two directions). In the books he seems to have already gone over to Brienne aspect

Makes sense from the perspective the Vale and North storylines are being merged in some ways

[Ivan Tsarevich]

Lonmouth, presumably. His name isn't mentioned. Only his rather bizarre sigil.

Bit late, but I just have to say; Lonmouth has best sig in the series. :box:

[Ghosts Lunch]

I think Sansa would give her favor to someone other than these people:

Lothar Brune: Is her father's right hand man, unattractive and is a better match for Mya than Alayne. And not a knight fighting for the wings.

Mad mouse: Mice are small creatures, and Shadrich is only a hedge knight.

Wallace Waynwood: Harry will see right through that. The Alayne he just met is too fiesty to favor a boy like Wallace. Though I like the possibility.

Lyn Corbray: Everyone knows he is gay. He is not going to ask Sansa's favor, especially since he is posing as LF's foe.

But as some of the Europeans on here have pointed out a Bat in German is a Mouse with wings or something, Mad Mouse is depicted with red eyes too

This is a cryptic Bat reference

One of many, from "Drewolf with Bat Wings" to the 8+1 winged companions being relevant to the 9 winged Bats on the Lothston? shield

There's also some cryptic Dragon line from Ser Shadrich and Fire references too which seem to imply she'll go over the the Blackfyres/Aegon/Varys at some point, I reckon her giving her favour to Shadrich would be a nod to this (especially if he doesen't even compete as it is a sign of Sansa/Alayne going her own way and not merely acting as a pawn within Littlefingers schemes) but it's also how Alayne differs from Sansa in that Ser Shadrich is not the traditional Prince Charming ladies give their favour to in the songs

[bent branch]

Here is one potential scenario for what LF is planning. Sweetrobin is the Lord of the Vale, Harry is Sweetrobin's heir. Marry Harry to Sansa. When Sansa is pregnant with Harry's child (or after she has given birth to Harry's child), kill Harry. Harry's child with Sansa is now Robert's heir. Kill Robert. LF now has to only worry about controlling Sansa and a little baby. LF has effectively taken over the Vale.

Is this the way it will go? :dunno: But this is LF's most probable plan.

ETA: Oh, and if LF subsequently provides evidence that Sansa is Sansa and not his bastard daughter, he could at least try to marry Sansa after she is widowed.