A Dance with Dragons Release Discussion

[Ran]

Remember, this thread is about sharing the latest information and related to the release of ADWD, and speculating on the release date. A discussion of the proofreading process should be taken to another thread.

[Innominandum]

Remember, this thread is about sharing the latest information and related to the release of ADWD, and speculating on the release date. A discussion of the proofreading process should be taken to another thread.

Wasn't it supposed to be on information and not speculation ? I don't see the point of having it stickied if it's spammed with random speculations...

[Werthead]

I would say that yes, this thread was originally designed for the sharing of what hard info we have at the moment. The thread has ballooned up to this size before and I've just waited for things to die down before pruning it back down to just the first post and re-update the first post with the latest info. However, not much has changed since I last updated the first post a couple of months back.

[Analog_Filter_2011]

Amazon UK, in their infinite wisdom, have now shifted back the UK release from February to October 2007. Well aware of the fact that Amazon is not that reliable when it comes to these matters ( but nevertheless often has more info than the standard joe schmoe), I will note that a Martin book has never come out before the projected Amazon UK date.

Personally I am disappointed to see that GRRM is only now really starting to get going again with ADWD, he's pretty frank about the fact that he's hardly written something at all in the last few months, which is bound to have effect. On the other hand he does feel he can finish it by year's end. In any case he has room for a good long writing spell now, and may finish by the end of February perhaps.

Calibandor:

Just like you, I'm really disappointed too. GRRM probably has in my estimation, probably completed no more than 600 manuscript pages. When AFFC came out, didn't he have something like 550 pages? All that he realy did was rewrite some Jon chapters, for the most part..though he may have completed a Tyrion chapter or two. Hardly wat I'd call progress. But, I still have faith in George.

As disappointing as the wait will have to be, I suspect ADWD will be WAYYYYYY better than AFFC, especially if he still has room to resolve the story arcs of Brienne, Cersei, Jaime, and Sansa.

Finally, a message to The Fat Man: Calling people a "dumbass" is kinda rude, don't you think? People have a right to be disappointed.

[mormont]

For information, I think it's worth pointing out that Cali has a track record (which I know TFM is aware of) of being highly critical of GRRM re: writing rate (he once went so far as to accuse George of deliberately lying about release dates) and I suspect this explains the comment above.

It is an excessive reaction to the one post above, though, undoubtedly: still, he has been warned by a mod. So let's drop that subject because it's cluttering up the thread. No more comments on that please.

On topic, I suspect George is being optimistic about finishing by year's end: but then again, his writing rate prior to AFFC was considerably faster. If he has no major plotting problems to resolve I can see him returning to that rate.

And frankly I'd rather see him setting optimistic targets for several reasons: for example, it indicates that he is feeling optimistic about the work, which suggests it's going well.

[Padraig]

And frankly I'd rather see him setting optimistic targets for several reasons: for example, it indicates that he is feeling optimistic about the work, which suggests it's going well.

Yup. I think so too.

Its weird about aFfC, I know people keep mentioning that GRRM underestimated when he would finish it, but I don't remember any estimate from GRRM until he was nearly finished. The only thing clear before hand was that he was having problems.

With aDwD, he has been a lot more relaxed about giving estimates. While the end of the year might be the best case scenario, its close enough for me to think he shouldn't overshoot it too much. So good news.

GRRM probably has in my estimation, probably completed no more than 600 manuscript pages

This is more speculation though. I think you are basing it on something he said back in March. While he hoped to have finished the book by now back then, saying he hasn't written anything nearly is surprising.

[Calibandar]

Its weird about aFfC,weird about aFfC, I know people keep mentioning that GRRM underestimated when he would finish it, but I don't remember any estimate from GRRM until he was nearly finished. The only thing clear before hand was that he was having problems.

I'm sorry, I wasn't going to reply to this anymore at this point in time, however this is simply factually incorrect. The first projected release for Feast for Crows was Fall 2002, two years after ASOS. In April 2002 I was at the Elf Fantasy convention in Holland where Martin was an honoured guest and he announced the book was "significantly delayed and would not make that date" ( which is proof in itself of the fact that Fall was in fact a projected release date). That was the first time it became clear to the fanbase at large that GRRM was having issues with AFFC, although it only later became clear how massive those issues actually were.

So that's 2002, Padraig, rather than "just before he was finished" in 2005 As Mormont has so helpfully indicated, I have a woeful track record of keeping track of these things, so should you really have missed all of that, you may take my word on this one.

When pressed about a renewed release date at that time , he indicated Spring or Summer 2003. Again, he did not make that date, for reasons we now know everything about. When that date came and went, we got a new estimate, and then in 2004 another and then finally a book release in the autumn of 2005. GRRM kept running into new problems which kept preventing him from actually finishing the book when he thought and said it would likely be finished.

I'm not interested in judging that one way or the other. I'm only noting ( with great surprise I might add) that you simply cannot have been posting on these boards for the many years that you have and not have noticed the many discussions we have had about the new projected release estimates. There is a clear and present pattern of GRRM continiously misjudging his AFFC work timeline and it is clearly happening again with ADWD, which if GRRM was to be believed this time last year, would be finished by now....( see the author's note in AFFC).

It seems most peculiar to suggest that it is "weird" for people to believe GRRM underestimates his own work timeline based on all that has gone before.

BTW for what it is worth, Crimsonking's speculation that since the completion of AFFC , GRRM only seems to have finished another 100 or so manuscript pages doesn't seem to be that far off the mark, since the info we *have* actually had from GRRM about his writing about ADWD consists of him telling us about re-writing already written chapters to make them stronger. A worthy aim which one no one should quibble with, but nevertheless it still means that GRRM is going to have to hit one hell of a writing streak in the next 5 months for this book to be out somewhere in the Summer or Fall of 2007. I eagerly look forward to it and really hope he can get into his groove.

[Padraig]

Hmmm...as you said yourself, I have definitely been around these past years but I have no recollection of those projections you mentioned. So i'm rather bemused now although I can explain most of what you wrote. For example, after the release of aSoS in Autumn 2000, it was assumed by everyone that the next book would come out in around Autumn 2002. That would have been his original deadline. In Aug/Sept 2001 at Worldcon, he made his dramatic announcement that he had got rid of the 5 year gap, binned a lot of his written material and started over. Thus you are wrong when you say April 2002 was the first time time it became clear that he was having issues. At this Worldcon, it was clear that the book would be seriously delayed. But I don't recall him saying when he expected to finish it. So now I know you are wrong about something, and you think I am wrong about something.

I can't explain the Spring/Summer 2003 estimate. Except I can say Amazon were making all sorts of guesses around this time. I can just about buy the fact that he did give one estimate (which happened to slip under the radar with everything else going on) but there is no way there was a sequence of estimates. (Except via the omniscient Amazon).

I remember many discussions about estimates but I don't recall any based on what GRRM actually said. Except his point that we should ignore all these guesses from Amazon and wait for him to announce completion on his website.

That's why I was so surprised when he gave an estimate in aFfC itself. After seemingly been so careful over the last 5 years not to tie himself down, he was doing that now. And I admit, it always seemed a very optimistic projection.

And as I said, Crimsonking's speculation is based on rather old entries. (Except if I am missing something which says he is still revising chapters). Never mind that his second point about Jon was that he now could add further chapters to that segment of the story to bring it to a better conclusion. So he wasn't doing merely rewrites.

[Calibandar]

As it happens there's a new update by GRRM today:

http://www.georgerrmartin.com/if-update.html

Nothing new here, just further confirmation by GRRM that he hasn't really got any writing done in "the last few months", which means that yes, Crimsonking's estimation that GRRM may only have written a further 100 pages of ADWD since he completed AFFC may definitly be on the mark, because the last real updates we had about what Martin was actually writing, concerned his rewriting already written chapters.

As for his estimate being based on rather old entries, that's not true either. At the end of March this year GRRM was still talking about how he was going to revise the Jon chapters. After that we have only had updates about Martin being prevented from writing one way or another so you should rather say it's based on the latest actual info.

As for GRRM's updates about AFFC , they are all over the place on the old board. There were many threads about them which may have been deleted, or if you search for them you may find them. The same goes for the SSM collection, in which estimates could be found given at conventions, e-mails with fans, interviews even. This is not just related to a release date found on Amazon. But in all honesty I think we should drop this line of argumentation now because it ceases to be relevant, we've both said our piece on that matter now.

[mormont]

[mod] This discussion has gone seriously off-topic. This thread is for information relating to the release date for ADWD, not speculation about progress or a historical analysis of AFFC release dates. Any more OT posts will be deleted, sorry. A (polite) discussion of these other matters may be possible in another thread. [/mod]

[Werthead]

The sticky topic was getting seriously OT, as Mormont pointed out, so I'm transferring the relevant discussion points to this new thread.

[Padraig]

As for his estimate being based on rather old entries, that's not true either.

Well, since I consider the end of March rather old, it is true. It was certainly the entry I was talking about. Before he went to WC he said that he had done little work over the last month. Since he didn't say months, this suggests that he had managed to do stuff before that. So we can assume there was progress from March to mid-July. Suggesting he has only got an extra 100 pages done in that time is rather pessimistic. And of course if he could only write 100 pages in 5 months, he would have to be ridiculously optimistic to think he could write 500 (or so) pages before the end of the year.

He didn't say he was going to revise Jon's chapters btw. He had already spent a week on it.

A comment in May...

I finished the revisions on the Jon Snow chapters that I was talking about last month, and moved on to Tyrion for a while, but just now I am working on a new viewpoint character, and a chapter set in steamy harbor of Old Volantis

But Cal, if it makes you feel better to take a really pessimistic outlook then fine with me. If the book comes out early, you will be pleasantly surprised.

As for aFfC, I am arrogantly going to decide that i'm right. I'm not going to look for something I don't expect to find.

[Calibandar]

But Cal, if it makes you feel better to take a really pessimistic outlook then fine with me.

I would suggest I tend to be realistic rather than pessimistic, simply because I take the past into account, and you don't.

As for aFfC, I am arrogantly going to decide that i'm right. I'm not going to look for something I don't expect to find.

I think they call those "suppressed memories" even in Ireland

Seriously, saying GRRM has only finished a further 100 pages since he finished AFFC is probably going to be very close to the truth at this point. Shocking though that may be, it makes perfect sense based on what we know. Finishing ADWD within the timeframe Martin now speaks off would indeed require him to really settle into things and get hundreds of pages done in a few months.

And of course if he could only write 100 pages in 5 months, he would have to be ridiculously optimistic to think he could write 500 (or so) pages before the end of the year.

My point exactly. Yet that is what he is saying nevertheless.

[mormont]

I would suggest I tend to be realistic rather than pessimistic, simply because I take the past into account, and you don't.

Not entirely true: you only take into account the writing of AFFC, as far as I can see. There's more to the past than that.

[Padraig]

Seriously, saying GRRM has only finished a further 100 pages since he finished AFFC is probably going to be very close to the truth at this point.

Yes, Mormont's point is a good one about the past been 4 books, not 1. Furthermore, if you want to ignore what he said about this book and only focus on aFfC, fine.

I can buy the suggestion that the end of the year is optimistic, but ridiculously optimistic? From what i've seen of GRRM, he doesn't seem that type of person at all. Why would he raise expectations amongst his readers when the end of the year is not much more than 2 months away and there is no reasonable chance he could finish the book by then? Seems like you have a very low opinion of him (at least in this context).

[Werthead]

This discussion bewilders me.

GRRM wrote that note that went in at the end of AFFC before he agreed to do a massive four-month signing tour for the novel, and before The Ice Dragon with its attendant one-month delay cropped up, and before he knew he'd lost a month to his renovations. Add them up and that's six months more than the one year he was talking about. Thus, if the book does indeed come out 18 months or so after AFFC (so summer 2007), his estimates will have been broadly correct all along.

One slight irony. The mass-market paperback of AFFC due in a fortnight will presumably still have the note promising ADWD in about a year's time still in the end of it, and from the point of view of someone buying the MMPB, it will turn out to be right

[HokieStone]

This discussion bewilders me.

I'm not so sure what's bewildering. I have not been checking this site or GRRMs for some time for several reason. But when I checked today and saw his update about not really getting anything done, I must admit my first reaction was here we go again.

I don't begrudge the man the fruits of his success. And I agree wholeheartedly that he has every right to do whatever he wants, whenever he wants - including deciding not to ever write a single word more in the ASOIF universe if he so chose. At the same time it's human nature to be decidedly dissapointed when you get the exact opposite of news you were hoping for. It just frustrating, as a fan, to be repeatedly told something along the lines of "I have only one more thing on my schedule, and then it's all ADWD", only to find out 4 months later that he schedulded umpteen other conventions/signings/beauty pageant judging/whatever in that time.

So, sorry, but I'm with Calibander on this, and all of the "he can take however long he wants, and I'll still buy it" posts make me roll my eyes a little. I understand that sentiment, but still...

In all honesty, I am becoming more and more pessimistic about seeing the end of the series, and that's frustrating.

[DrownedCrow]

It just frustrating, as a fan, to be repeatedly told something along the lines of "I have only one more thing on my schedule, and then it's all ADWD", only to find out 4 months later that he schedulded umpteen other conventions/signings/beauty pageant judging/whatever in that time.

I agree. There's a difference between a delay due to problems with the writing and a delay caused by not writing at all. It doesn't really seem like GRRM is making ADWD his top priority when he takes months off to work on other projects. I find it very strange that he would delay ADWD, which everyone is desperate to read, in order to work on The Ice Dragon, which no one gives a fuck about. I don't hold it against GRRM that AFFC was late because at least he seemed to be trying. But at this point, he just seems to have lost his enthusiasm for ASOIAF.

[Sword of the Morning]

I didn't really want to get into this again because it opens up a WHOLE can of worms that has led to thread deletion in the past but as I seem to have found a few kindred spirits on this thread I have to put my two cents in.

I absolutely agree with Callibander, Drowned Crow, Hokiestone, and the rest about the progress that Martin has made on Dance with Dragons and ESPECIALLY the frustrations of these delays.

I've followed this board as a lurker and then a poster for about 2 years. Certainly well before the release of Feast for Crows and then for years before coming to these boards I've read George's updates on his website as well as the So Spake Martin portions on the Westeros site.

My impression was always that Martin kept running into new problems and that the "estimated" release kept getting pushed farther and farther back. There were a few threads even concerned that he STOP reading so many sample chapters at Cons as it was taking him so long to finish the book, a good portion of the book may have been read aloud by the time of publishing.

In any case, my own iimpression from reading his blog, his updates, and even asking him point blank at his Ice Dragon signing is that he has a SIGNIFICANT amount to write. He is a very optimistic person and I don't begrudge him that. He's not deliberately lying or trying to mislead his fans when he says things like he thinks he's going to finish by the end of this year. But I think he is in serious need of a reality check because definitely he did NOT give the impression that he was anywhere near done and that quite frankly he was hoping for a minor miracle these next 2 months as much as Padraig, Mormont, or the rest of us.

If I see an update by the end of this year saying he's done, I will be the FIRST to eat crow so to speak on this board and admit I'm wrong. And gladly too. I just don't think that's going to happen. Obviously, none of the fans at his signings had the guts to ask him a simple question about how he was doing on Dance as there have been reports from various cons in the past that he could get snippy with that question. Didn't Parris even warn us NOT to ask him a year or so back at one of the cons?

Well, for better or worse I asked how it was going. His response?

"Definitely not as fast as I want." While shaking his head. This was at the end of the night with only 2 other people around so I think I got a pretty genuine response.

That was late September at the first stop of his Ice Dragon tour. His recent update asserts that NO writing has been done because of cons, previous commitments, the signing, etc. From a blog entry BEFORE he went on his signing, he states the entire month of August was gone because of roofing and renovation on his house.

Does all this sound like a man who is confident that he's going to be done by the end of the year? His so-called "hope to be done" is exactly that, a fanciful hope. I'd rather he not even tell us that than falsely raise expectations. Hell, I'd prefer he just take down the entire "Update" on Song of Ice and Fire as it serves no purpose. His next update won't be until January of 2007. He'll be a few months late on that as he was with the so-called update at the "end of summer" which he decided to post in Ocober and then I fully expect him to state that he is "getting there but there's still a bit of work to do." Frankly, I'd rather not waste his time or mine reading that and would personally prefer he concentrate on writing or whatever he thinks is important instead of posting useless updates that give us no info.

The only post I want to read on that Update site is that it is done, anything else I don't really care about anymore.

Let's take a step back and LOOK at this situation. What is BEWILDERING isn't that we would be having this discussion Werthead. Here is what is truly BEWILDERING:

That after years of delay, we would have a triumphant "IT'S DONE" on his website. Reading that update in anticipation, what do we get? It's NOT done. In fact it is still unfinished but what we'll get in 6 months will in fact be a rearranged version of what has been written and what amounts to roughly 50% of what was initially planned. We then get some rigmarole explanation about the book being "too big" and "unpublishable" and how "this is actually all for the best."

At an author signing in NOVEMBER of 2005, he states he hopes to be signing Dance with Dragons this time next year. Frankly, he should just stop giving estimates period. I really wish he would.

Werthead, your post suggests that you may think that Martin didn't know he would have a massive 4 month signing tour for Feast. What would make you think that? We don't know when he wrote that Author's Note but I can pretty much guarantee you that he knew there was going to be a book-signing tour and a sizeable one the minute he updated his site. Probably half-way through writing Feast for Crows he knew there was going to be a booksigning. Why WOULDN'T there be, there was one for Storm of Swords. And when he told us he would be SIGNING BOOKS November 2006 (SIGNING Werthead, not finished writing, but SIGNING published books) at his first stop in So Cal last year he definitely knew then how long that tour was going to be. He was in starting it! He seemed pretty confidant anyway that he'd be signing again in one year's time. After all, the book is HALF-FINISHED. That's what he said then. How do you explain that? A misunderstanding maybe?

I really don't know what the problem is with simply accepting the fact that Martin tends to be optimistic to the point where it's simply not realistic. There's nothing wrong with that and I'm certainly not attacking him for that. I just think the evidence is strong and quite obvious that his projections of when his next book will be done are absolutely meaningless and have no correlation with reality at all.

Why is this important? Well, hell, it really isn't. Obviously, George will be done when he'll be done. Whether that's in a year or 5 years such is life. I just wish he'd stop giving us these pronunciations that have no chance of being met because like the boy who cried wolf, I've heard it all before.

HERE is the part that annoys me:

I'm NOT saying Martin doesn't have the right to do it or that he owes us anything or whatever. But what I am saying is that it seriously disappoints me.

I simply don't think he gives Dance with Dragons or this series the time and attention it deserves. Maybe I'm WAAAY off base here and I know I'll be crucified on this board by the apologists for saying it but it's my opinion and I want to get it off my chest.

He is NOT working on Dance with Dragons. He is working on the second half of a Feast for Crows and then Dance with Dragons. He's still catching up in other words. In the meantime, we have all these deals that's been going on with licensing. Testor's miniatures, the card game, the role-playing game, an old reprint of the Ice Dragon that nobody would care about were it not for his notoriety, the World of Song of Ice and Fire, comic books via Marvel, DC comic deal maybe in the works, another publisher for Wild Cards, and on and on and on and on.

Now I know that everybody has the right to make a living and when you've got a hot property you need to milk it because there may be no tomorrow.

I DO find it hypocritical that many on this board would tear Robert Jordan apart limb from limb for being a "sell-out" when it is MARTIN who has his hands in so many different licenses I can't even keep track of it. Granted many of them have been given out to companies who go out of business, or forcibly merge, or have problems delivering quality product in a timely manner . . . but still. Just who is the bigger sell-out here? And if Martin has the right to spend all this time making money, why are the fans hypocritically saying Jordan is "selling out" by making Wheel of Time longer than necesesary?

Sorry folks, but JORDAN ain't the guy who ran into writer's block for 5 years and is trying to publish and resurrect a line of comic book anthologies that we haven't cared about since the 1980s. That guy just writes 13 hours a day, hardly goes to any cons, hasn't done a license in God knows how many years, and delivers a book like clockwork every 2.5 years. If you hate his stuff, fine, but to say he is a SELL-OUT while Martin is the paragon of virtue just make me roll my eyes.

We have a word for that and that's "fan boy." I just wish we'd be a little more fair that's all.

Nobody here thinks it's lame that the publishers of the Ice Dragon tried to market the story as set in Westeros? Ridiculous. They're simply trying to cash in on Martin's newfound popularity and notoriety by releasing his older and in my frank opinion FAR inferior work and marketing it as part of Song of Ice and Fire. Frankly, I find it offensive to my intelligence and it should embarrass Martin. To his credit, it did and he appeared genuinely uncomfortable and apologetic when he told the audience the truth at that signing.

It's all money and since Martin obviously no longer has the ability to write and publish a new Song of Ice and Fire novel every 2 years, he's got to find some other way of establishing and increasing income and that's how we get a 40 page short story stretched out into a 130 page illustarted chlildren's book that will cost you 13.95 to buy.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Feast did not impress me. However well-written it may have been (and it'd BETTER be for a Hugo and Nebula award winning author's effort of 5 years) nothing in it touched me or swept me away and I can recall no events in it that came anywhere near even the MINOR climaxes in Clash of Storm. He has a LOT to prove with Dance with Dragons with me.

That book is delayed because the muse left him. Martin doesn't write novels for a living, he writes SHORT STORIES. That is where he became famous, THAT is where he won his Nebulas and Hugos. Before that we have the unremarkable Dying of the Light, the excellent Fevre Dream, and the lovely Armageddon Rag that effectively ended his career as a novelist for 10 years.

Martin historians, please prove me wrong on this.

The muse hit him and out came Game of Thrones, Clash of Kings, and Storm of Swords in fairly rapid succession. Then the muse left him and quite frankly I'm stilll not sure where we are with this. Certainly by his own admission and his own written notes in GRRM: RRetrospectives and his OWN PODCAST, he DOES NOT FINISH WELL. His drawer is LITTERED with the beginnings of half-started short stories and ideas. He thought he was going to write a sequel to Fevre Dream, maybe some more adventures of Haviland Tuf, and maybe a novel in the Future Earth series he wrote in his youth. All of that? Gone. In his own words, there is a graveyard littered with his ideas that went nowhere or was aborted mid stream.

He goes where his Muse takes him and that's great but when you're in the middle of a multi-thousands of pages and multi-volume epic and the Muse leaves you . . . well that's a problem. Because he can't exactly toss this baby into a desk drawer, rip out a good yarn about vampires along the Mississippi and then take a look at this story again. NO. There are mortgages to pay, obligations to meet, a LEGEND he has to live up to. He's hit it BIG now and he has to FINISH. And that's why it's sad for me to say it . . . but I think writing Song of Ice and Fire has probably lost a lot of the fun and excitement it held in the past. Now it's pressure and deadlines and expectations.

And I don't think it's necessary disrespectful or out-of-line to describe our disappointment with this current state of affairs.

I am a big fan of his. I own most of his work in lettered and numbered form, I've read most of his short stories, and I'm always up for a good GRRM collectible. Song of Ice and Fire is my favorite epic fantasy series and I've introduced it to many friends and coworkers. But this continued delay and lack of progress in the face of relentness distractions with handing out licenses and promotions that have NOTHING to do with Song of Ice and Fire . . . well I am frankly becoming very disillusioned. And I HATE that, I HATE that I'm feeling that way. But I can't help it and frankly I can no longer recommend this series (despite having spent 2000 dollars on the limited and lettered versions of it!!) to anyone I know until I read Dance with Dragons and it restores my faith and enthusiasm.

Thanks for reading this long post but I've been feeling this rant building for a LONG time . . . ever since reading that "update" when he finished Feast and then READING Feast whooo, it's good to get if off my chest in any case.

Speaking as one fan to another, I would WELCOME arguments and differences of opinion and corrections. I LOVE Song of Ice and Fire and I LOVE George Martin as an author. Please prove me wrong and make me feel better because I am so honestly depressed with the situation the series is in right now it's not even funny.

That and having Jordan freaking dying in front of us one book short of a series HE'S been working on for 20 plus years and then David Gemmell's sudden death and well . . . it's just been pretty damn sad for sci-fi/fantasy lately that's all.

Dennis

[Padraig]

I was going to argue but you brought up the whole crappy RJ v GRRM thing. The whole "who is a bigger sell-out" argument is way too ridiculous for me to bother right now. You think people would get tired of seeing who can throw the greater amount of mud at authors.