Doran Martell's Friend at Court

[BryndenBFish]

Intro

By the end of ADWD, Doran Martell begins to move Dorne decisively towards war against the Iron Throne. Motivated by a desire for vengeance against the Lannisters for the deaths of Elia Martell and her children, Doran focused his internal political efforts on uniting his family behind his efforts. However, Doran Martell needed a clearer casus belli than a 18 year old crime. While Dorne was eager to avenge Elia and Oberyn by the start of AFFC, Doran Martell was cautious of war, especially as war would threaten the children.

Fortunately for Doran Martell, Cersei Lannister provided him a casus belli. But the nature of how the information got to Doran Martell is a mystery, but I think it might be solvable.

As I've started doing research for Parts 7 and 8 of the Blood of the Conqueror series (dealing with Aegon/Jon Connington/Varys/Illyrio's conspiracy/plot), I tend to find other off-topic things worth writing about. In this case, while reading through Dornish POV chapters in AFFC, ADWD and TWOW (as well as having a eureka moment while recording a Q/A video for Part 6 of the series), I think I might have stumbled on the answer to the question of who Doran Martells "friends at court" are or at least one of them. Varys.

How Varys Operates

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"Nothing happens in this city without Varys knowing. Ofttimes he knows about it before it happens. He has informants everywhere. His little birds, he calls them." (AGOT, Catelyn IV)

Varys' primary method of intelligence collection revolves around the use of muted literary children that he calls "little birds." These little birds are inserted into the tunnels that Maegor the Cruel built into the Red Keep.

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"Little birds fly through many a dark tunnel. Careful, the steps are steep." (ACOK, Tyrion III)

Many of the rooms in the Red Keep have tunnels running in and around them that make conversations audible to Varys' little birds. As Tyrion climbed through the tunnel to his father's chamber in the Hand's tower, he was able to hear every bit of conversation transpiring below:

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For the space of a few feet, Tyrion could hear every word of their haggling, but when he moved on, the voices faded quickly. Small wonder Varys did not want me to climb the bloody ladder, Tyrion thought, smiling in the dark. Little birds indeed. (ASOS, Tyrion XI)

When Tyrion absconded from King's Landing and Varys disappeared, it's likely that Varys stuck around King's Landing. Moreover, Varys' little birds were still listening into every conversation in the Red Keep. As Cersei talked with Qyburn, she thought of the sounds she heard at night.

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At night Cersei sometimes heard soft sounds, even in her own apartments. Mice in the walls, she would tell herself, no more than that. (AFFC, Cersei VII)

Likely, these soft sounds are the movements of Varys' little birds as they listened in on Cersei. This also meant that Varys' intelligence operation in the Red Keep was still in full-swing during the timeline of AFFC. More to the point of this theory, it plays into Cersei's Dornish plots in AFFC.

The Spider and the Viper

We're introduced to the Dornish in AFFC, and we immediately find Dorne seething with anger over the death of Oberyn Martell. For much of AFFC, Doran Martell seems like the only man stopping Dorne from plunging into war. However, at the end of AFFC, we come to find out that Doran Martell has been secretly working towards "Vengeance. Justice. Fire and Blood."

Before all that though, we need to backtrack to ASOS and Oberyn Martell's entry into King's Landing. The Lannisters expected Doran Martell to arrive in King's Landing to take a small council seat. To their chagrin, Oberyn Martell arrived instead to fulfill the Dornish council seat. Many fans have wondered why Doran Martell dispatched his angry and impetuous brother to King's Landing. Here's Doran Martell's explanation from AFFC:

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'Take the measure of this boy king and his council, and make note of their strengths and weaknesses,' I told him, on the terrace. We were eating oranges. 'Find us friends, if there are any to be found. Learn what you can of Elia's end, but see that you do not provoke Lord Tywin unduly.' (AFFC, The Captain of the Guards)

On the surface, the Red Viper did nothing of the sort. He antagonized Tywin Lannister and Mace Tyrell and ended up fighting as Tyrion's champion against Gregor Clegane. However, Oberyn might have made one friend at court: Varys.

Varys and Oberyn share only one scene in ASOS (Varys' testimony at Tyrion's trial), but there's an oddity at work in the narrative. When Oberyn told Tyrion that he would fight as his champion, the way he phrased it was completely damning:

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"Your father," said Prince Oberyn, "may not live forever."

Something about the way he said it made the hairs on the back of Tyrion's neck bristle. Suddenly he was mindful of Elia again, and all that Oberyn had said as they crossed the field of ashes. He wants the head that spoke the words, not just the hand that swung the sword. "It is not wise to speak such treasons in the Red Keep, my prince. The little birds are listening."

"Let them." (ASOS, Tyrion IX)

 

Why would Oberyn not give a fig about implicating himself when Varys' little birds may have been listening? This is probably the most speculative piece of this theory, but is it possible that Oberyn had already made a friend in the Spider and that what Varys knew about his plot did not threaten Oberyn? Cersei Lannister spoke to Varys' methods of worming his way into people's confidences back in ACOK:

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"You think you're the only one he whispers secrets to? He gives each of us just enough to convince us that we'd be helpless without him. He played the same game with me, when I first wed Robert. For years, I was convinced I had no truer friend at court, but now . . ." (ACOK, Tyrion XII)

However, Varys may have actually been a true friend to Oberyn insomuch as Varys knew that his dragon (Aegon) would need Dorne to take the Iron Throne. Though unconnected directly to Varys' scheming and plotting, Jon Connington spoke to Aegon's need for Dorne much later in the story:

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Lesser lords might join their cause for fear of harm or hope of gain, but only the Prince of Dorne had the power to defy House Lannister and its allies. "Above all else, we must have Doran Martell." (ADWD, The Griffin Reborn)

Varys was well-aware of Aegon's need for friends and allies to seize the Iron Throne from the Lannisters and Tyrells. In the ADWD Epilogue, he told Kevan as much:

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"Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather round him." (ADWD, Epilogue)

Though Oberyn would die fighting as Tyrion's champion, it's possible that the potential friendship he created with Varys paid dividends down the road, especially as it came to the plots of a certain queen regent.

Cersei Lannister's Ambiguous Dornish Plot

By the middle of AFFC, Cersei's reign as queen regent was picking up steam. Unfortunately for her (and for Westeros), this reign was one of folly and conspiracy-mindedness. Amidst all of the conspiratorial plotting against the Tyrells, Cersei hinted at a Dornish plot.

Gregor Clegane was dying, and Cersei decided to continue her father's attempts to placate the Dornish with Gregor's head whenever he ended up dying for real:

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"The Mountain is yours. Do what you will with him, but confine your studies to the black cells. When he dies, bring me his head. My father promised it to Dorne. Prince Doran would no doubt prefer to kill Gregor himself, but we all must suffer disappointments in this life." (AFFC, Cersei II)

Meanwhile, Cersei Lannister received constant reports from Arys Oakheart (Myrcella's kingsguard) on Myrcella's status:

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"If you return to Sunspear, you will need to give audience to Princess Myrcella," Caleotte said. "Her white knight will be with her . . . and you know he sends letters to his queen." (AFFC, The Captain of the Guards)

When Gregor died, Cersei told the small council of her plan to send Gregor's head to Doran Martell to appease the Dornish and prevent them from rebelling:

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"Prince Doran has taken his brother's unruly bastards into custody, yet Sunspear still seethes. The prince writes that he cannot hope to calm the waters until he receives the justice that was promised him." (AFFC, Cersei IV)

However, she had an ulterior motive in mind. Accompanying Gregor's head down to Sunspear would be Ser Balon Swann of the Kingsguard. His stated task was to bring Myrcella back to King's Landing:

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"Her Grace informed me that I might be called upon to escort her daughter back to King's Landing. King Tommen has been pining for his sister and would like Princess Myrcella to return to court for a short visit." (ADWD, The Watcher)

However, Cersei Lannister issued Ser Balon Swann another, more conspiratorial task in Dorne:

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"I am sending Balon Swann to Sunspear, to deliver him the head of Gregor Clegane." Ser Balon would have another task as well, but that part was best left unsaid. (AFFC, Cersei IV)

Cersei's plot was left ambiguous, but it's worth noting here that Cersei did not bring up whatever plot she had in mind for Ser Balon in front of the small council. It was "best left unsaid." However, it's somewhat clear that Cersei had already discussed the other task with Balon Swann before she dispatched him. (Keep this in mind for a little later)

But the question remains: what exactly was Cersei's plot? Bringing Myrcella back from Sunspear was probably not worth keeping a secret from the small council (especially as Ser Balon Swann immediately petitioned Doran Martell for this when he arrived at the Water Gardens.) More to the point of this theory, how did Doran Martell find out about the plot?

Dorne's Friend at Court

All right, you've probably already guessed where this theory is going, right? Well, let me continue rambling a little longer to wrap this up. In the middle of ADWD, we re-enter the Dornish plotline. In a single Areo Hotah chapter, a lot happens, here's a few of the highlights:

• The Dornish and Myrcella move from Sunspear to the Water Gardens
• Ser Balon Swann arrives in the Water Gardens, and the Dornish throw a feast "in his honor."
• The White Knight presents Gregor Clegane's skull to Doran Martell
• Ser Balon requests that Myrcella come back to KL "for a visit."

After the feast is complete, we come to the crux of the chapter. Doran Martell reveals startling information on what Balon Swann is truly in Dorne to do:

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Prince Doran took a jagged breath. "Dorne still has friends at court. Friends who tell us things we were not meant to know. This invitation Cersei sent us is a ruse. Trystane is never meant to reach King's Landing. On the road back, somewhere in the kingswood, Ser Balon's party will be attacked by outlaws, and my son will die. I am asked to court only so that I may witness this attack with my own eyes and thereby absolve the queen of any blame. Oh, and these outlaws? They will be shouting, 'Halfman, Halfman,' as they attack. Ser Balon may even catch a quick glimpse of the Imp, though no one else will." (ADWD, The Watcher)

With that information in hand, Doran Martell unveils his plot: he'll send the Sand Snakes to King's Landing and await the return of Quentyn Martell and "Daenerys." Doran now had a clear casus belli to usher Dorne into war with the Iron Throne, and he had "Daenerys" coming to Westeros.

However, if we back up for a moment, we should examine who Doran Martell's "friend at court" is. First, notice the similarity in language from Doran's initial instruction to Oberyn from AFFC, The Captain of the Guards and how he relays his bombshell in ADWD, The Watcher:

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"Find us friends, if there are any to be found." (AFFC, The Captain of the Guards)

"Dorne still has friends at court." (ADWD, The Watcher)

 

The similarity in language leads me to believe that Oberyn Martell was the one who made "friends at court" that later informed Doran Martell of Cersei's plot during his brief stay in King's Landing.

Next, we return to Cersei's conspiracy. We know that she was hatching some sort of conspiracy that was between herself and Ser Balon Swann that the small council knew nothing about. However, it's very likely that someone else knew about it. Varys. His little birds were within the walls of the Red Keep and were recording all conversations within the castle. His little birds were still in action during the timeline of AFFC, and we can suppose that Varys himself was in the Red Keep as well -- given that he doesn't take ship with Tyrion at the end of ASOS and murders Kevan Lannister in the ADWD Epilogue.

In short, Varys is the only other person besides Cersei Lannister and Ser Balon Swann who would know of Cersei's "Halfman" plot. Unless Ser Balon Swann was Varys' agent (unlikely given his discomfort at being around the Dornish), it's my estimation that Varys is Doran Martell's friend at court.

Conclusion

At a Q/A in Spain in 2012, GRRM was asked about the Dornish secret marriage pact and whether Varys/Illyrio knew about it:

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Were Varys and Illyrio aware of the betrothal contract that Prince Doran and Ser Willem Darry had made? And why didn't Darry or someone tell Viserys about this agreement before his death?

GRRM: To the first question: no. - SSM, 7/28/2012

 

Given that Varys and Illyrio knew nothing about the secret marriage plot, I don't think that Varys was always Doran Martell's friend at court. However, he seemed to have become one during the timeline of ASOS. It fits thematically with how Varys is operating to put Aegon onto the throne. It fits the narrative of Varys manipulating Westeros to embrace his dragon. In short, it simply fits for Varys to have been a "friend" of Oberyn's and to continue that "friendship" into the narrative to bring Dorne to Aegon.

TL;DR: Varys is one of Doran Martell's "friend at court."

Special thanks to /u/a4187021 or providing a backdrop and some quotes to help with this theory. Thanks!

[DarkSister1001]

Very nice!    I absolutely agree that it was Varys.  I think the Martell hatred of the Lannisters was so well known Varys must have been beside himself with joy when Oberyn showed up. 

Varys birds are so much like BRs "eyes" when he was in KL. 

There is one location I am a little confused on...was the tunnel used by Varys and Tyrion the same one that Aryra was in when she overheard Varys & Illyrio?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

A nice read. While I completely agree that it appears that Oberyn made a friend at court during his time at KL, who later informed Doran about Cersei's plot, I'm not entirely certain it if Varys, though. For Varys, it would be of an essence that Doran accepts that Aegon is truly Aegon. No matter whether the boy truly is Rhaegar's son by Elia or not, if Doran is seen to believe that Aegon is not really Elia's son by Rhaegar, chances of other Westerosi believing he's Rhaegar's son by Elia become much smaller. (that won't stop several from taking an oppertunity, but still..)

 

So if Varys is the friend, it would be important for him to share the fact that Elia's son is still alive. Yet, if he befriended Oberyn, he kept silent about it for more than half a year since befriending him, and in total, for some seventeen years. That doesn't really inspire trustworthiness, and thus might make Doran more inclined to believe that Varys is lying.

 

5 hours ago, BryndenBFish said:

All right, you've probably already guessed where this theory is going, right? Well, let me continue rambling a little longer to wrap this up. In the middle of ADWD, we re-enter the Dornish plotline. In a single Areo Hotah chapter, a lot happens, here's a few of the highlights:

• The Dornish and Myrcella move from Sunspear to the Water Gardens
• Ser Balon Swann arrives in the Water Gardens, and the Dornish throw a feast "in his honor."
• The White Knight presents Gregor Clegane's skull to Doran Martell
• Ser Balon requests that Myrcella come back to KL "for a visit."

Small thing, but The Watcher takes place at Sunspear. They discuss going to the Water Gardens, where Ser Balon will see Myrcella (as Myrcella is already there). Doesn't change anything, but I figured I'd mention it

[Ran]

Don't think it's Varys. Quentyn is concerned about Varys's informants, and thinks of the fact that his father warned him about such men discovering his true purpose.

I think Oberyn was being Oberyn when he didn't give a damn about the "little birds", more than anything.

 

 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

I always thought that it was either Taena or Lewyn's paramour.

[Ruhail]

Im thinking Qyburn.

[sarah.jenice]

@BryndenBFish I think you make a great argument for it being Varys and him being secured by Oberyn during ASOS. I'm sold.

[BryndenBFish]

27 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

So if Varys is the friend, it would be important for him to share the fact that Elia's son is still alive. Yet, if he befriended Oberyn, he kept silent about it for more than half a year since befriending him, and in total, for some seventeen years. That doesn't really inspire trustworthiness, and thus might make Doran more inclined to believe that Varys is lying.

So the interesting thing about this is that Varys keeping Aegon's identity a secret falls in line with how the plan was supposed to unfold:

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"The plan was to reveal Prince Aegon only when we reached Queen Daenerys," Lemore was saying.

"That was when we believed the girl was coming west. Our dragon queen has burned that plan to ash, and thanks to that fat fool in Pentos, we have grasped the she-dragon by the tail and burned our fingers to the bone." (ADWD, The Lost Lord)

 

I think they were trying to keep it a secret until Aegon hit the shores of Westeros. Varys might have been keeping that portion of the plan in play, especially as it's likely by AFFC, Cersei IV or just before (When Varys' little birds may have overheard Balon Swann's "Halfman" plot), the Dany-Aegon marriage plan was still in play.

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Small thing, but The Watcher takes place at Sunspear. They discuss going to the Water Gardens, where Ser Balon will see Myrcella (as Myrcella is already there). Doesn't change anything, but I figured I'd mention it

Rats. Always the small details that get me! On a personal note, it's nice to finally interact with the famous @Rhaenys_Targaryen who is referenced as the source of all things timeline-wise on History of Westeros!

[BryndenBFish]

19 minutes ago, Ran said:

Don't think it's Varys. Quentyn is concerned about Varys's informants, and thinks of the fact that his father warned him about such men discovering his true purpose.

I think Oberyn was being Oberyn when he didn't give a damn about the "little birds", more than anything.

 

 

It very well might be that Doran is unaware of who is passing along the information. The "we still have friends" bit is kind of interesting insofar as (and maybe it's just me) Doran might not know who's passing him info. 

In any case, who's your pick, Ran?

[Ran]

I have to say that Taena Merryweather always struck me as an interesting option, since I think a lot of people have assumed she's Varys's agent but it feels like it's not really his style; he has informants, and leaves it to the likes of Littlefinger to have agents to do his bidding.

[BryndenBFish]

1 minute ago, Ran said:

I have to say that Taena Merryweather always struck me as an interesting option, since I think a lot of people have assumed she's Varys's agent but it feels like it's not really his style; he has informants, and leaves it to the likes of Littlefinger to have agents to do his bidding.

He does have informants and little birds, but oh boy, do I have one from the archives for you on Taena Merryweather as Varys' agent.

[Endymion I Targaryen]

Very nice work (as always).I too believe it is Varys who passed the information.What I find difficullt to believe is his friendship with Oberyn.I believe more that he wants the Lannister-Martell alliance to end so that Martells are willing to ally with Aegon.Maybe he made up some details from Cersei's plot to enrage them (we never learn from Cersei's POV what she said to Balon).

[aryagonnakill#2]

1 hour ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

I always thought that it was either Taena or Lewyn's paramour.

Any thoughts on that?  The word "still" by Doran implies it is a long time friend so I like the thought you propose, but can't think of anyone that would fit the bill.

[Ran]

@BryndenBFish,

To be honest, all that has been hashed over on the board after AFfC and it's what I was referring to regarding the common assumption. I think Taena's move to feed the paranoia Cersei felt toward the Tyrells can be explained without needing her to be an agent of Varys.

 

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

Taena Merryweather could have familial ties to Illyrio and/or Varys. Orton spent some time in the Free Cities. Perhaps he fell in with the Golden Company, or with Illyrio more directly like Jorah.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

3 hours ago, BryndenBFish said:

So the interesting thing about this is that Varys keeping Aegon's identity a secret falls in line with how the plan was supposed to unfold:

I think they were trying to keep it a secret until Aegon hit the shores of Westeros. Varys might have been keeping that portion of the plan in play, especially as it's likely by AFFC, Cersei IV or just before (When Varys' little birds may have overheard Balon Swann's "Halfman" plot), the Dany-Aegon marriage plan was still in play.

But consider how Aegon is eventually revealed to Doran; not by Varys, but by Jon Connington. What is Doran to think, assuming Varys is his "friend at court", if he finds out that Varys has known about Aegon all along, has been involved in Aegon's survival all along, and, despite giving him secretive information, did not tell him about Aegon's survival?

 

It would pose a danger to Doran becoming convinced that Aegon is not truly Elia's son, wouldn't it? And if Doran does not accept Aegon as Elia's son, no one in Westeros has a genuine reason to do so (though, as said before, the oppertunists won't care much about that).

 

The idea that Doran might not know who is giving him the information is very interesting, but, would he trust such a source? Or, is that the reason he suggests traveling by sea to Balon, to see how the man would react?

 

3 hours ago, BryndenBFish said:

Rats. Always the small details that get me! On a personal note, it's nice to finally interact with the famous @Rhaenys_Targaryen who is referenced as the source of all things timeline-wise on History of Westeros!

Thank you for the compliment! It's also nice to finally interact with you. I've been reading your essays on the blog for a while, and while I don't always agree with every detail, I do think you raise very interesting points in each of them. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

As spy master extraordinaire Varys likely knew of or suspected Doran's desire for vengence. Surely, he cultivated Doran's trust, just like he did with the members of the small council, by giving them useful information. When the time was right, I would suspect Varys intended to tell Doran that he had kept his nephew safe by hiding him and raising him to be a great king. But Tyrion intervened and Jon and Aegon crossed the Narrow Sea with the Golden Company ahead of Illyrio's schedule.