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How is Westeros going to pay off their massive debts?


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8 hours ago, BanzaiZ said:

Payment plans. A decent chunk of debt was waved thanks to a monumentally stupid decision on Cersei's part, but I'd try my damnedest to make sure that forgiveness was still binding.

If Aegon/Dany takes the throne, I highly doubt the Lannisters will ever see a single copper star of the debt owed to them. They'll be lucky to keep their heads and Casterly Rock with the way things are going for them. 

So with that in mind, I owe 2-3 million dragons to the Iron Bank and associated other debtors. Set up a payment plan as best I can that will take a heavier share from less war torn lands in the beginning, and then drop to a lower percent for them while transitioning the the higher rate for the North, Riverlands, etc. as they rebuild to balance out the taxes and also allow for said lands to recover. Then settle on a centralized method of taxation that doesn't overwhelmingly favor the three largest cities in Westeros and leave many of the minor lands on the borderline. That's going to mean hauling every maester that has a yellow gold or copper link to King's Landing for a council to hammer it out.

you know what will happen they will call you a Tyrant-Obam.... I mean Aegon V Sympathetic ass! 

I added modern-day terms, my bad, but I hope it gets my point across. The high lords hated Aegon V's policies that helped the low and middle class families. 

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6 hours ago, Merengues said:

Has anyone thought that apparently the IB wants no Targaryen king with dragons to sit the IT ever. Even if it's an abolitionist girl. Otherwise a certain banker would have traveled to Mereen instead of The Wall...

Not really, no. Braavos was fine with the Targs, it was fine with Robert, it was fine with Joffrey, and the only reason the IB is not fine with Tommen is because Cersei stopped payments. Golden dragons are the only dragons they care about.

And the reason why they didn't support Dany's claim to the throne... couldn't it have something to do with the fact that Dany doesn't bother to press her claim, tied in Meereen? Would be daft to support a claimant who doesn't support herself.

So the real choice (before Illyrio ass-pulled Aegon VI) was between Stannis Baratheon and Euron Greyjoy, and Euron is in dire need of a straitjacket.

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In a pinch, they could sack Lys, Myr or Tyrosh. Those cities have enough money to wage wars exclusively by bribing sellswords.

Alternately, they could tap into some of Westeros' natural resources. Hides and pelt from the North are said to be valuable trading goods. Arbor Gold is also a commodity that sells for hundreds of dragons per cask. They've also got vast amounts of timber with all the forests (which Braavos lacks), and probably mines enough to excavate enough ore to pay the debts.

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16 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:
19 hours ago, The Wolves said:

As far as we know Westeros was not in debt while Aerys was king Tywin made sure of that. Plus Aerys had a lot of money when Robert say his disgusting self on that ugly throne. 

Robert and his dumb band of counsel members are defiantly to blame for Westeros being in debt. 

I think Lannister gold will pay off the Iron Bank debt. As for the Lannister getting paid back nope that ain't happening at all. 

Ned implies the opposite when he says, "Aerys Targaryen left a treasury flowing with gold."

That he had treasuries flowing with gold does not exclude that the realm was indebted. Aerys might as well have loaned the money. I mean, it is extremely unlikely that Robert and his council bankrupted an entire continent by staging tourneys and feasting...

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23 hours ago, Starfell said:

Well, leaving aside the impending Fimbulwinter and ice demon/zombie apocalypse I'm sure that the new King/Queen will agree to repay the Throne's debtsarrow-10x10.png, to do otherwise risks the IB sponsoring pretenders, rebels, and assassins until they restart payments, which is quite frankly more trouble than it's worth. It would grate horribly on Aegon or Dany to pay usurpers' debtsarrow-10x10.png, but at the end of the day, the pragmatic course of action is to accept they're part of the Kingdom and pay them. Even leaving aside the Bank'sarrow-10x10.png own punitive measures, pissing off a major trading partner like Braavos would be stupid and refusing pay up would put people off dooing further business with the Westerosi Crown (and with the combination of civil war and Winter, they might even need more loansarrow-10x10.png for rebuilding)

Whether Casterly Rock gets its moneyarrow-10x10.png back is a different kettle of fish, I think that depends much more on who gets the Throne and who gets the Rock, and what the circumstances of their ascentionarrow-10x10.png are. Anyone who has to fight a war against the West for the throne will likely demand that the debtarrow-10x10.png be cancelled when the West surrenders

Bittersweet ending?

The new King/Queen is a fan favourite (Jon, Dany, Tyrion, Sansa...maybe even a combination of two of them).

Takes the throne after the great war with the Others to find the coffers are empty and the realm needs rebuilding.

We get their POV telling the IB that they will be paid but it will have to delayed significantly.

The Iron Bankarrow-10x10.png refuses to accept the delay and hires the Faceless Men to do a job.

A girl with no name is chosen to be the assassin to kill the King/Queen.  She carries out the order even though it is someone she used to love...

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34 minutes ago, DasallmaechtigeJ said:

That he had treasuries flowing with gold does not exclude that the realm was indebted. Aerys might as well have loanedarrow-10x10.png the moneyarrow-10x10.png. I mean, it is extremely unlikely that Robert and his council bankrupted an entire continent by staging tourneys and feasting...

The crown was in debt, not necessarily the realm.  We know a lot of the crown's debt is to the Lannister's.  I have a sneaky suspicion that the Lannister's will no longer exist after the series is done so the crown can just seize Lannister holdings.

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If Stannis gets the throne I have a feeling that he will unleash a massive wave of proscriptions on the nobility in order to raise the funds needed to to pay off the Crown's debts as well as replenishing the now depleted royal treasury. His talk with Davos about making massive overhauls towards the Westerosi elites and wanting a more socialist system means he might start confiscating wealth and persecuting people who have large bank accounts just as Sulla had done in Rome. And frankly I think he will have no other option but to do this if he wants to make good on his commitments to the Iron Bank. I mean the economy is in tatters, much of the kingdom (especially the Riverlands) are in ruins. Raising taxes and trade tariffs may not be enough given the shape the realm is in. He will have no choice but to forcefully take from others in order to rebuild his kingdom and keep the IB happy.

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44 minutes ago, DasallmaechtigeJ said:

That he had treasuries flowing with gold does not exclude that the realm was indebted. Aerys might as well have loaned the money. I mean, it is extremely unlikely that Robert and his council bankrupted an entire continent by staging tourneys and feasting...

I think we are supposed to just accept is as an axiom: the realm's finances were in good condition after Aerys, and plummeted with Robert.

You are right that it's unbelievable that Robert's personal spending, however extravagant, was the sole reason of that state of the treasury. Likely, some sinister influence (which rhymes with "middle linger") was the real cause. But when Ned mentioned that treasury "flowing with gold", nobody said anything like "no, it wasn't exactly like that", and those present were Varys, Littlefinger, Pycelle and Renly - those could be duplicitous, of course, but wouldn't be duplicitous together.

So, in the absence of a single voice in-universe questioning that, I'm accepting Aerys' chest flowing with gold as a fact.

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1 hour ago, DasallmaechtigeJ said:

That he had treasuries flowing with gold does not exclude that the realm was indebted. Aerys might as well have loaned the money. I mean, it is extremely unlikely that Robert and his council bankrupted an entire continent by staging tourneys and feasting...

I don't recall any indication that the realm was in debt. There's no reason for Robert's council to throw him under the bus for the debt if it could be blamed on the debt being inherited from Aerys. I am almost positive that Littlefinger has been robbing the realm. But I see no reason to doubt that the debt belongs to Robert's reign. I don't think Ned's statement was based on ignorance of debt. As far as I can tell there is no statement or implication that Robert inherited a realm that was in debt. 

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3 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't recall any indication that the realm was in debt. There's no reason for Robert's council to throw him under the bus for the debt if it could be blamed on the debt being inherited from Aerys. I am almost positive that Littlefinger has been robbing the realm. But I see no reason to doubt that the debt belongs to Robert's reign. I don't think Ned's statement was based on ignorance of debt. As far as I can tell there is no statement or implication that Robert inherited a realm that was in debt. 

 

49 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

I think we are supposed to just accept is as an axiom: the realm's finances were in good condition after Aerys, and plummeted with Robert.

You are right that it's unbelievable that Robert's personal spending, however extravagant, was the sole reason of that state of the treasury. Likely, some sinister influence (which rhymes with "middle linger") was the real cause. But when Ned mentioned that treasury "flowing with gold", nobody said anything like "no, it wasn't exactly like that", and those present were Varys, Littlefinger, Pycelle and Renly - those could be duplicitous, of course, but wouldn't be duplicitous together.

So, in the absence of a single voice in-universe questioning that, I'm accepting Aerys' chest flowing with gold as a fact.

 

Yeah, I also strongly assume that LF has something to do with it and has "treasuries flowing with gold" of his own parked in some offshore venture in Essos...

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2 hours ago, Ser Gareth said:

Bittersweet ending?

The new King/Queen is a fan favourite (Jon, Dany, Tyrion, Sansa...maybe even a combination of two of them).

Takes the throne after the great war with the Others to find the coffers are empty and the realm needs rebuilding.

We get their POV telling the IB that they will be paid but it will have to delayed significantly.

The Iron Bankarrow-10x10.png refuses to accept the delay and hires the Faceless Men to do a job.

A girl with no name is chosen to be the assassin to kill the King/Queen.  She carries out the order even though it is someone she used to love...

That's not bittersweet that's tragic.

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14 hours ago, Merengues said:

I believe Ned explicitly says that the Targaryen treasury had an amount of golden coins in the seven figures.

I don´t believe this.

14 hours ago, Merengues said:

(I still wonder how anyone could blow away that much money,

Even if the specie balance was specifically "seven figures", that´s the same order of magnitude as the debt Robert wound up with.

14 hours ago, Merengues said:

even taking into account the swindling from LF). I don't think GRRM gave a real thought on how money worked to reflect a real-life example, but yet, that levels of spending are just ridiculous.... Jon Arryn and Littlefinger are to blame for this given how they failed to put in place a monetary policy that balanced the spending (and they had 13 years to think about it.)

Not Petyr. He was for several years first tax collector at Gulltown and then some lower posts at court.

His predecessor already was "embattled". The problems were not doing of Petyr, but of Robert and Jon.

 

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A Targaryen or Baratheon King/Queen would consider the Lannister debt null and void due to their "treason and deception". So that's 3 million that you don't have to worry about.

If I recall, the Church forgave the Crown's debt to them in exchange for rearming the Faith Militant. so that's 900 thousand taken care of.

Make whomever becomes Warden of the West pay off the Tyrells as part of the terms for assuming lordship of Casterly Rock.

The rest of the 2.1 million is divided in unspecified amounts to the Tyrells, Iron Bank and Tyrosh trading clans. One could organize a 10-20% income tax on every noble house (except for the Tyrells) under the Iron Throne to collect enough gold to at least pay off the Iron Bank. The Tyrosh can be paid back with annual payments+interest. Somehow I get the sense that the Iron Bank debt is heavier and more pressing than that of Tyrosh.

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15 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Not really, no. Braavos was fine with the Targs, it was fine with Robert, it was fine with Joffrey, and the only reason the IB is not fine with Tommen is because Cersei stopped payments. Golden dragons are the only dragons they care about.

And the reason why they didn't support Dany's claim to the throne... couldn't it have something to do with the fact that Dany doesn't bother to press her claim, tied in Meereen? Would be daft to support a claimant who doesn't support herself.

So the real choice (before Illyrio ass-pulled Aegon VI) was between Stannis Baratheon and Euron Greyjoy, and Euron is in dire need of a straitjacket.

There is also the fact that with Stannis claiming to be Robert's heir he would be obliged to pay Robert's debts. While, Dany would be more justified in telling that shes owes them nothing.  

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I'm not a Daenerys fan but she will trade Slaves bay for westeros. A former slave area that has been neutralized would be a great installment for the bravosi. And it's much closer than westeros.  Plus she won't even need help in conquering it, seeing as she has 3 dragons and an increasing army.

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16 minutes ago, Trogdor Targaryen said:

I'm not a Daenerys fan but she will trade Slaves bay for westeros. A former slave area that has been neutralized would be a great installment for the bravosi. And it's much closer than westeros.  Plus she won't even need help in conquering it, seeing as she has 3 dragons and an increasing army.

Slavers bay isn't closer then westeros....

 

Slavers Bay

Bravos

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It will happen the same thing that hapened to the Bardi (for the size, influence and power, they seem the inspiration to the Iron Bank) and the Peruzzi: a king couldn't pay his massive debts, and both banks go  bankrupt.

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9 hours ago, Trogdor Targaryen said:

I'm not a Daenerys fan but she will trade Slaves bay for westeros. A former slave area that has been neutralized would be a great installment for the bravosi. And it's much closer than westeros.  Plus she won't even need help in conquering it, seeing as she has 3 dragons and an increasing army.

Braavos is actually further away by sea from Slavers' Bay than the Red Keep, Dragonstone, and the Arbor (the three areas that would be most important for this scenario) despite being marginally closer as the crow raven flies.

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The source of the debt is a little unclear.  There was really only the one war, and I don't know that there was evidence of a huge naval build-up or anything that could quickly bankrupt a kingdom.  I don't recall Robert building any new castles or monuments to his own greatness.  They certainly didn't spend much improving infrastructure.  We know that Robert was generous.  I think he (and Jon) tried to keep the peace by spending gold and reducing tax burdens on potentially rebellious regions.  I think the court was pretty wasteful too, but not wasteful enough to run up that kind of debt.

Whatever the cause, Ned's conclusion that Jon was mismanaging things is probably accurate.

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