What if Vale declared for Joffrey?

[UFT]

early on. lysa and robert believe stannis made everything up and rush to defend their king from robb's uprising.

what happens?

[Philokles]

It would never have happened, but Robb gets defeated pretty quickly or, if he is sensible, retreats back to Moat Cailin.

[dariopatke]

First Lysa would never abandon Eyrie.

Next we can assume some bannerman abandon her cause, Royces fe.

But if she somehow decides to lead army against Robb and manages to defeat disloyal bannermen she will totally crush Robb.

[CJ McLannister]

By doing nothing, they kind of did declare for Joffrey.  They just didn't commit any troops.  If they had (and the troops didn't immediately follow The Blackfish), they would have taken Tywins spot holding the Trident and allowed the main Lannister army to march West to Riverrun much faster.  

Now, depending on timing, that could have prevented Whispering Wood, but if it was later it could have put Tywin too far from King's Landing.  So then the question would be whether the Vale army would march south to fight off Stannis theoretically leaving the Vale undefended.

[Lion of the West]

16 minutes ago, CJ McLannister said:

By doing nothing, they kind of did declare for Joffrey.  They just didn't commit any troops.  If they had (and the troops didn't immediately follow The Blackfish), they would have taken Tywins spot holding the Trident and allowed the main Lannister army to march West to Riverrun much faster.  

Now, depending on timing, that could have prevented Whispering Wood, but if it was later it could have put Tywin too far from King's Landing.  So then the question would be whether the Vale army would march south to fight off Stannis theoretically leaving the Vale undefended.

Defending the Vale and marching to relieve King's Landing are not mutually exclusive options. It would be entirely possible to leave a force strong enough to hold the Bloody Gate and march an army south that would have been a match for Stannis' attacking King's Landing.

But as you said it would depend a great deal on the time of the declaration but would most likely involve a faster victory for Joffrey and leave his and later Tommen on much more stable grounds. On another level it would, I think, make the situation at court a bit more complicated as the Valemen would expect recognition for their support and it would not just be the West and the Reach.

[CJ McLannister]

24 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

Defending the Vale and marching to relieve King's Landing are not mutually exclusive options. It would be entirely possible to leave a force strong enough to hold the Bloody Gate and march an army south that would have been a match for Stannis' attacking King's Landing.

But as you said it would depend a great deal on the time of the declaration but would most likely involve a faster victory for Joffrey and leave his and later Tommen on much more stable grounds. On another level it would, I think, make the situation at court a bit more complicated as the Valemen would expect recognition for their support and it would not just be the West and the Reach.

Yeah, the Vale doesn't seem that hard to defend, and, beyond the mountain clans (which would not have been armed by Tywin in this scenario), it was not under attack at any point.  It's more the issue of the level of commitment ramping up from defending the doorstep of the Vale to actively engage in other people's conflicts.

The Vale being involved would greatly alter the Tyrell-Lannister dynamics.  Somehow I'm sure Littlefinger would still come out on top of it all.

 

[John Doe]

The Vale could muster 20k soldiers at least without leaving the Vale undefended. The Lords Declarant alone could easily send 12k, with that force behind his back Robb would be crushed. 

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Lysa would be put under guard and declared unfit to rule, with Bronze Yohn Royce serving as Robert Arryn's legal guardian and allying with Robb. The knights of the Vale were damn close to ignoring Lysa's wishes and joining Robb's army anyway, barely, just barely, kept in check by her declared neutrality.

They knew that Lannisters had murdered Jon Arryn. They admired Ned Stark and knew his execution to be a Lannister power play. They had close familial ties to Riverlanders and Northmen (and at least three centuries of constant allying).

Outright allying with the Lannisters would have cost Lysa the last shreds of the tenuous hold she still had over her son's bannermen.

[norwaywolf123]

if Tywin had killed all the mountain clans taht Tyrion brought maybe. Arming them was probably a factor on why so many Valemen wanted to join Robb.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Please remember that the Wot5K was originally a cloak&dagger affair solely between Lannisters and Arryns, turning into a hot war with Tyrion Lannister's trial for murdering Jon Arryn.

Every single Lord of the Vale knew that. Lysa Tully started the war, got the support of her relatives in Winterfell and Riverrun - and bailed on them because she was too much of a coward to fight a war. That's the public story in the Vale and the shame of abandoning their allies in a war not of their own doing cut deep.

[Dorian Martell]

9 hours ago, UFT said:

early on. lysa and robert believe stannis made everything up and rush to defend their king from robb's uprising.

what happens?

Well, they would declare for a time and then go neutral fast so the rest of the story works as it is written. How's that?

 

[tugela]

1 hour ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Lysa would be put under guard and declared unfit to rule, with Bronze Yohn Royce serving as Robert Arryn's legal guardian and allying with Robb. The knights of the Vale were damn close to ignoring Lysa's wishes and joining Robb's army anyway, barely, just barely, kept in check by her declared neutrality.

They knew that Lannisters had murdered Jon Arryn. They admired Ned Stark and knew his execution to be a Lannister power play. They had close familial ties to Riverlanders and Northmen (and at least three centuries of constant allying).

Outright allying with the Lannisters would have cost Lysa the last shreds of the tenuous hold she still had over her son's bannermen.

Except that the Lannisters didn't. It was Lysa who did it, at the behest of Littlefinger. She would have done anything he wanted, and since he wanted power, there was no way the Vale was going to intervene and waste soldiers. His grand plan was probably to let the other houses slug it out, and then ride in the settle the manner when they were all weakened.

[tugela]

45 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

if Tywin had killed all the mountain clans taht Tyrion brought maybe. Arming them was probably a factor on why so many Valemen wanted to join Robb.

Arming them was a factor in keeping the Vale OUT of the conflict, lol. It gave the Vale houses something closer to home to be more worried about than what was going on elsewhere in Westeros.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

33 minutes ago, tugela said:

Except that the Lannisters didn't. It was Lysa who did it, at the behest of Littlefinger. She would have done anything he wanted, and since he wanted power, there was no way the Vale was going to intervene and waste soldiers. His grand plan was probably to let the other houses slug it out, and then ride in the settle the manner when they were all weakened.

You know, I know, the rest of the readers know - but the Lords of the Vale don't and they were damn close to teeling Lysa where to stick her orders and kick Lannister ass anyway while she was simply abandoning her alles.

Outright allying with the Vale's enemies against their allies would have been too much to stomach for them.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

6 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

You know, I know, the rest of the readers know - but the Lords of the Vale don't and they were damn close to teeling Lysa where to stick her orders and kick Lannister ass anyway while she was simply abandoning her alles.

They were not as close as you think.

GeoRR: The lords of the Vale are numerous. As with any large group, their views vary.

GeoRR: "Brothers" overstates the case, but certainly Ned made friends during his years in the Eyrie... so did Robert, however, so some of the Vale houses would be just as well disposed toward Baratheon as toward Stark.

GeoRR: Do some of the them want to join Robb? Certainly. Most notably Bronze Yohn Royce. Others, however, want no part of the war, and some may even favor the other contenders.

It is kind of notable that the only real contribution to the war of the five kings, apart from Littlefinger, was Yohn Royces second oldest son who sided with Renly rather than Robb.

 

6 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Outright allying with the Vale's enemies against their allies would have been too much to stomach for them.

Robert's son is not their enemy. If Lysa had commanded the Vale Lords to fight for Joffrey they would have.

[Lee-Sensei]

Just now, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Lysa would be put under guard and declared unfit to rule, with Bronze Yohn Royce serving as Robert Arryn's legal guardian and allying with Robb. The knights of the Vale were damn close to ignoring Lysa's wishes and joining Robb's army anyway, barely, just barely, kept in check by her declared neutrality.

They knew that Lannisters had murdered Jon Arryn. They admired Ned Stark and knew his execution to be a Lannister power play. They had close familial ties to Riverlanders and Northmen (and at least three centuries of constant allying).

Outright allying with the Lannisters would have cost Lysa the last shreds of the tenuous hold she still had over her son's bannermen.

Not at all. Robert grew up in the Vale to and made friends a lot easier. If Lysa decied to go to war against the North for Roberts son and their King, they would. As Littedragon said they weren't close to ignoring Lysa and going to war for Robb at all. Feelings were mixed.

[norwaywolf123]

On 27.5.2016 at 1:34 AM, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Please remember that the Wot5K was originally a cloak&dagger affair solely between Lannisters and Arryns, turning into a hot war with Tyrion Lannister's trial for murdering Jon Arryn.

Every single Lord of the Vale knew that. Lysa Tully started the war, got the support of her relatives in Winterfell and Riverrun - and bailed on them because she was too much of a coward to fight a war. That's the public story in the Vale and the shame of abandoning their allies in a war not of their own doing cut deep.

Tyrion was innocent according to the gods since he won the trial by combat, so that was her way out

[Bright Blue Eyes]

20 hours ago, Lee-Sensei said:

Not at all. Robert grew up in the Vale to and made friends a lot easier. If Lysa decied to go to war against the North for Roberts son and their King, they would. As Littedragon said they weren't close to ignoring Lysa and going to war for Robb at all. Feelings were mixed.

Would be a lot easier, if he wouldn't fly the Lion and use exclusively Lannister troops.

19 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Tyrion was innocent according to the gods since he won the trial by combat, so that was her way out

And no Lord of the Vale accepted that. "Well, apparently he didn't personally slip the poison into Jon's wine, but his sister..."

[GallowsKnight]

2 hours ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

And no Lord of the Vale accepted that. "Well, apparently he didn't personally slip the poison into Jon's wine, but his sister..."

And the the honorable Vardis Egan being so unchivalrously slain by Bronn would annoy some folk too. 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

4 minutes ago, GallowsKnight said:

And the the honorable Vardis Egan being so unchivalrously slain by Bronn would annoy some folk too. 

Who was responsible for Bronn being in the Eyrie?