Battle of Blackwater

[Coolbeard the Exile]

If Melisandre was present at the battle of Blackwater Stannis would have won but what would Melisandre have done to win Stannis the battle?

[Canon Claude]

Mel wouldn't have been able to do anything that would have given Stannis the victory. His cause was pretty much doomed thanks to Edmure and Littlefinger.

[Tucu]

She already had the vision of Stannis defeat by "Renly". That future was probably a fixed point.

[Sword of Mutilation]

I don't think he would have won. She just says that as an escape of why she couldn't give him the victory he so wanted and to be able to keep him closer to her.

[Byfort of Corfe]

Well, since the "Lord of Light" seems to be some sort of fire god/creature and since Melisandre seems to draw power from burning people perhaps she would have derived some benefit from all those soldiers and sailors who were burned to death.

[dariopatke]

Well, the only way he could have won is to march on Bitterbridge. He could have done huge damage to KL if Tyrion never came and wildfire was poured on attackers, then one flaming arrow could destroy walls and perhaps cause defenders to desert which would put Stannis in Ceasar's position in Alesia.

[BalerionTheCat]

It was a good opportunity to tell Stannis, he needed her.

But maybe she could. She could have detected the wildfire and changed the plan. Maybe kill Tywin with a shadow baby ...

[Trigger Warning]

All his scouts would still be dead with a huge relief force converging on him whilst he's vulnerable. Wildfire or not the hammer's coming entirely unannounced whilst he sits on the anvil, most of his men would probably switch sides again. 

Also not sure to what extent Mel could have changed anything even with the wildfire, I mean she obviously has some magical abilities but I don't know if she'd be able to go full bright wizard and prevent the destruction of the fleet. 

Of course she's gonna say it would have been different if she was there even if it wouldn't have been. 

[Byfort of Corfe]

I think this raises the question of just what Melisandre's powers are.  I know that by inference she really can't "give birth to" any more of Stannis' "shadows" but is Stannis the only one that she can do it with?  Because if she could and then sent one in to kill Joffrey...or perhaps the shadow figure could do something else like open the gates one dark night? 

[GallowsKnight]

I don't know if she could have won it. But she might have been able to soften the losses. Put her in the lead ship and she might predict the wildfire and the chain, then stop the fleet assaulting. Which may delay Stannis engaging the city and let him discover the Tyrell/Lannister host. He's still wildly outnumber but he could then withdrawn with more men then he did (either by land or sea depending on what is possible) to fight another day. With his fleet entirely intact.

[cgrav]

I guess it's possible that some previously indecipherable fire vision would have become relevant during the battle, but no such visions are presented to the reader, so there's no clear answer there.

[GallowsKnight]

4 minutes ago, cgrav said:

I guess it's possible that some previously indecipherable fire vision would have become relevant during the battle, but no such visions are presented to the reader, so there's no clear answer there.

Melissandre says the visions she is best at picking up are those were she is in peril. Like Davos coming to stab her. So if you put her in the Vanguard or the first ship of the fleet she might see something she otherwise wouldn't. Whereas sitting on her butt in dragonstone she is in no danger.

[Tucu]

2 minutes ago, GallowsKnight said:

Melissandre says the visions she is best at picking up are those were she is in peril. Like Davos coming to stab her. So if you put her in the Vanguard or the first ship of the fleet she might see something she otherwise wouldn't. Whereas sitting on her butt in dragonstone she is in no danger.

Melisandre had a vision of the defeat in KL. She tried to change it by killing Renly but misunderstood the vision; it was not Renly in the vision, it was Garlan Tyrell in Renly's armor.

Melisandre saw another day in her flames as well. A morrow where Renly rode out of the south in his green armor to smash my host beneath the walls of King's Landing

[GallowsKnight]

20 minutes ago, Tucu said:

Melisandre had a vision of the defeat in KL. She tried to change it by killing Renly but misunderstood the vision; it was not Renly in the vision, it was Garlan Tyrell in Renly's armor.

Melisandre saw another day in her flames as well. A morrow where Renly rode out of the south in his green armor to smash my host beneath the walls of King's Landing

Yes she does, that could still however play exactly how she saw it out with Stannis in a better position then what happened. For example if his fleet didn't get destroyed and only a small portion of his army managed to cross on rafts because he was impatient, to get attack by Garlan Tyrell. Then he might still have >10,000 men in the field and an intact fleet.

Also her visions are likely malleable to some degree, because she was able to survive Cressen and Davos' assassination attempts. So that vision might have been preventable by accident. The biggest mistake she made was thinking she had already prevented it.

[cgrav]

The overarching theme with prophecy - going back to Ancient Greek stories - is that it is fulfilled ironically by trying to avoid it. If Mel "avoids" a prophecy, it's because she has misinterpreted it. Cressen was never going to succeed, and I'd say that if the murder attempt was foreseen, it was his failure she saw.

[GallowsKnight]

3 hours ago, cgrav said:

The overarching theme with prophecy - going back to Ancient Greek stories - is that it is fulfilled ironically by trying to avoid it. If Mel "avoids" a prophecy, it's because she has misinterpreted it. Cressen was never going to succeed, and I'd say that if the murder attempt was foreseen, it was his failure she saw.

I agree that it is certainly a classic trope going back for millennia and it may be the case with AIOSAF. But we've never been told for certain whether it's all the time, or just when it's particularly ironic.

But what I also said above could happen. Stannis avoids having his fleet destroyed but still gets attacked in the Rear by Renly's ghost and loses. But he escapes with more ships and men. That would change things a little.

[cgrav]

Yeah, the flip side is that we don't know whether prophecy is avoided or just wrong. Can something be prophetic if it's avoidable?