Varys' plan for the Tyrells

[devilish]

The Tyrells can’t take it. None of the Reach can. Surely they have the numbers but they staying away from conflict and for good reason. Unlike the Lannisters whose wealth is dug deep underground, the Tyrells wealth is on the ground ie the field. Wars and crops do not mix well with one another. 

So here’s Varys plan for the Tyrells. Viserys comes at the back of a Dothraki horde and the Dothraki will do what the Dothraki will always do, ie pillage, rape and burn anything that doesn’t have feet. Mace will quickly bend the knee to avoid this scourge from lasting long in his land and his 70k army will join Viserys/Danny army. 

Things got messy when Viserys and Drogo died. Danny lost her khalasar and unlike her big brother she doesn’t seem so keen to go to Westeros either. The Golden Company got impatient, Aegon was at the right place at the right time and voila he’s in Westeros with a ridiculous amount of soldiers while trying to beat an enemy who can raise 10 times his numbers
 

[John Suburbs]

My guess is that Illyrio, Varys and JonCon would all prefer to have the Tyrells on their side, since that would allow them to hold the IT, and the south, in the inevitable conflict with Stannis. But if Mace doesn't play ball, then they would cut deals with whichever Reach lords they can.

So I think it's going to play out this way: Mace and JonCon will parley in the Kingswood and JonCon will pitch the following plan:

Mace will march on Storm's End, and after a perfunctory siege, he will "take" the castle. JC and the Golden Co would then march in cognito with Mace to help him rid the Reach of ironmen. Then, Mace returns to KL as the conquering hero he's always imagined himself to be while the GC slips into the city undercover. From there, it's only a small matter of overwhelming the meager Lannister forces left to Cersei and then executing her and Tommen so Aegon could claim the throne, with Margy as queen.

Mace will pretty much have to take this deal because the Lannister alliance is practically finished anyway considering nearly all the top Lannisters are dead or missing, and also because his only other choice is to park his arse at Storm's End for years while the ironmen run rampant through the Reach. But like I said, if he doesn't, other Reach lords would probably prefer to defend their own lands than do Cersei's bidding, and this would be a good way to get out from under both the Lannister and Tyrell yolks.

Consider also that the idea that JonCon is marching north to defeat Mace in the field is just about the dumbest thing he could do. Even if he does win, his forces will take heavy losses and he still does not know if he can count on Dorne. And even if Dorne does join him, they'll have to hold KL surrounded by hostile lords in the Reach, the Stormlands and the Crownlands.

[chrisdaw]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Olenna does not falsely talk down Mace as an oaf. She might very well think her son isn't very smart. However, that doesn't mean she does not share his ambitions. She is later as crucial in the Tommen-Margaery marriage as Mace is. If her only concern was her family she would have decided that Margaery should not marry King Tommen after Joff's death, and that she would return home with her to marry some other guy.

Keep in mind that it is Olenna and her poisoning plot that ensures the success of Tyrell ambition, nothing else.

Basically you're just denying the text. It's made clear by Olenna herself that she does not decide where Marge marries, Mace does. She specifically derides Mace's ambition, lord Pufferfish. She's no fan of the Lannister match, she fears Mace riding the lion will lead to them all plunging off a cliff together, but lord Pufferfish wants his daughter on the throne and she can't stop it, no-one listens to her, the realm would be better off if the lords all listened to their mothers, tut tut. The plot to poison Joffrey ensures, in Olenna's mind, Marge's safety in an inevitability she can not stop lest she try assassinating every king Mace would marry Marge to, obviously not a sustainable plan.

[Lord Varys]

12 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

Basically you're just denying the text. It's made clear by Olenna herself that she does not decide where Marge marries, Mace does. She specifically derides Mace's ambition, lord Pufferfish. She's no fan of the Lannister match, she fears Mace riding the lion will lead to them all plunging off a cliff together, but lord Pufferfish wants his daughter on the throne and she can't stop it, no-one listens to her, the realm would be better off if the lords all listened to their mothers, tut tut. The plot to poison Joffrey ensures, in Olenna's mind, Marge's safety in an inevitability she can not stop lest she try assassinating every king Mace would marry Marge to, obviously not a sustainable plan.

No, I'm not. I'm thinking about what we get from Olenna in AFfC where she is crucial in arranging the Tommen-Margaery Tywin and Cersei did not want.

There is no reason to take Olenna's frank talk all that seriously. The way she poisoned Joffrey shows that this is, at least, partially an act. She is playing a role and hiding her true persona behind the mask of the Queen of Thorns. That woman is lying through her teeth both to Sansa and Tyrion shortly before she frames them for Joff's murder.

And Mace, well, the idea that Mace has no idea about that murder can be challenged. While we have no Tyrell POV we can't be sure. Mace took a seat among the judges and was pushing Tywin to execute his own son. A brilliant strategy to humiliate the old man in front of the entire Realm. 'The monstrosity you fathered killed your own grandson and nearly killed by beloved daughter. Now you will give me his head on a plate or this alliance is over.'

In any case, there has to be source for Mace's ambition. If Olenna did not fed it to him then perhaps Luthor did. We don't really know that.

But keep in mind that Olenna only goes on record as having not liked the Renly plan and was skeptical about the Joffrey plan. We have no reason to believe she does not like the Tommen plan - or wouldn't have liked a less risky plan in the first place.

We actually have proof that Olenna influences Mace to a great deal. The man actually agreed to the Willas-Cersei match when talking to Tywin, and after talking to his mother he changed his opinion and embarrassed himself by actually weaseling out of a done deal. He wouldn't have done that if he weren't partially under the thumb of his mother.

[Scorpion92]

Tyrells ate more than they could chew. There is just no way they would give up power and throne without a fight. Their alliance with Lannisters will cost them everything.

After Mace and Tyrell army are defeated in Stormlands by Jon Connington and Golden Company, Arianne Martell will bring Dornish spears and her hand in marriage to Aegon.

Stormlands lords of Dornish Marches, who are militaristic by their nature, will flock to Aegon's side after his victory. This will allow a safe passage through Boneway's Pass for one of two Dornish armies.

Second Dornish army in Prince's Pass, led by Lord Fowler, will attack Nightsong and kill Lord Philip Foote, a Lannister agent and the only Stormlands marcher lord who did not join Aegon. 

With Mace and big Tyrell host dead, and Golden Company, stormlanders and Dornish backing his claim, no doubt Jon Connington and Aegon will decide to march onto King's Landing and take Iron Throne. 

In order to take the throne the most bloodless way possible, there will be several cards on the deck for Aegon's faction:

1) I think Tyene Sand will be a big link between Aegon and High Sparrow, who is basically the most powerful player in the city and who holds the keys to hearts and souls of the capital's population

2) Nymeria Sand will be a part of small council, and I am pretty sure she will do some damage to political power of Tyrells and Lannisters, maybe even poison King Tommen, which will bring uncertainty to the line of succession

3) I am a big believer that Varys holds Tyrek Lannister in secrecy, who used to be King Robert's squire and has big insight to Cersei's secrets, and will present him to Aegon. I think in order to peacefully bring Westerlands along to his side, I believe Jon Connington (who hates Tywin for what he did to Rhaegar's kids) will advise Aegon to award lordship of Casterly Rock and Warden of the West title to Tyrek.

4) Randyll Tarly is the only obstacle standing in Jon Connington and Aegon's way to take capital without unnecessary losses. To avoid that, I believe Aegon will award lordship of Highgarden and Reach and Warden of the South title to Randyll.

His wife Melessa is a Florent who are known throughout the books to have a high claim on Highgarden. Therefore, Randyll's heir, Dickon Tarly, has a big claim on the castle thanks to his mother. It is the same situation like with Roose and Ramsay, where one is still lord of his lands, but gets regional overlordship and his son inherits the lordship of region's capital.

With Mace gone, ironborn ravaging the Reach and Tyrell strength waning with every day (Loras is nowhere to be found, Margaery will be dead thanks to Cersei's schemes, Garlan will take back Shield Islands but lose his life to Harras Harlaw and Nightfall foreshadowed in TWOIAF), I believe Randyll will accept.

The only thing that I can see stopping Aegon and Jon Connington NOT taking Iron Throne is the news of Euron destroying Iron Fleet and planning to attack Oldtown. Aegon was raised to be a perfect king, and I do not see a good king abandoning his realm in its greatest need. He and his host will march to Oldtown to save it from Euron and ironborn. Meanwhile, Randyll and a host of Dornish will sack Highgarden and kill Olenna and Willas Tyrell (foreshadowed in TWOIAF).

That is the broad scope of what I think will transpire.

 

[aryagonnakill#2]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, I'm not. I'm thinking about what we get from Olenna in AFfC where she is crucial in arranging the Tommen-Margaery Tywin and Cersei did not want.

There is no reason to take Olenna's frank talk all that seriously. The way she poisoned Joffrey shows that this is, at least, partially an act. She is playing a role and hiding her true persona behind the mask of the Queen of Thorns. That woman is lying through her teeth both to Sansa and Tyrion shortly before she frames them for Joff's murder.

And Mace, well, the idea that Mace has no idea about that murder can be challenged. While we have no Tyrell POV we can't be sure. Mace took a seat among the judges and was pushing Tywin to execute his own son. A brilliant strategy to humiliate the old man in front of the entire Realm. 'The monstrosity you fathered killed your own grandson and nearly killed by beloved daughter. Now you will give me his head on a plate or this alliance is over.'

In any case, there has to be source for Mace's ambition. If Olenna did not fed it to him then perhaps Luthor did. We don't really know that.

But keep in mind that Olenna only goes on record as having not liked the Renly plan and was skeptical about the Joffrey plan. We have no reason to believe she does not like the Tommen plan - or wouldn't have liked a less risky plan in the first place.

We actually have proof that Olenna influences Mace to a great deal. The man actually agreed to the Willas-Cersei match when talking to Tywin, and after talking to his mother he changed his opinion and embarrassed himself by actually weaseling out of a done deal. He wouldn't have done that if he weren't partially under the thumb of his mother.

While I don't have a real opinion on the issue as a whole, I would just caution against this line of thinking.  My sister and I both hate being late, because our mother is always late and it drives us crazy.  Likewise, Tytos certainly did not push ambition and strength on Tywin, he is who he is precisely because of his fathers lack of ambition and strength.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

While I don't have a real opinion on the issue as a whole, I would just caution against this line of thinking.  My sister and I both hate being late, because our mother is always late and it drives us crazy.  Likewise, Tytos certainly did not push ambition and strength on Tywin, he is who he is precisely because of his fathers lack of ambition and strength.

That certainly is correct but the point there is that both Luthor and Olenna were supposed to marry a Targaryen in their youth. The idea that this double rejection was never discussed in Highgarden after Luthor and Olenna had married each other simply doesn't make much sense. I think the core of Mace's royal marital ambitions goes back to that. Could be that Olenna eventually got over that (although I doubt that) but it might be that she wasn't over it when Mace was still a young boy and constantly complained about it.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

On 20/11/2016 at 7:04 PM, Seams said:

It's pretty clear that alienating the Tyrells from the Lannisters is one of Varys' primary goals in the Epilogue of ADwD:

...you were threatening to undo all the queen's good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen's rule. So...

I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm's End and the lords of the realm gather round him.

If people figure out that Cersei deliberately sent Ser Loras into the teeth of a tremendous battle, leading to his torturous injuries, or trumped up the evidence to put Margaery on trial; or if (when) she replaces Mace Tyrell with a new Hand of the King, the alliance will be broken. As others pointed out, Willas might lead an anti-Lannister House Tyrell, and I suspect that Ser Garlan could also take on that role. He was probably a spy for Olenna while he was in King's Landing, and could have been building alliances behind the scenes while she was having tea with Sansa or with Cersei.

Margaery will probably leave King's Landing and, when she is safely away at Highgarden, will claim that she is pregnant with Tommen's child. (I suspect she was pregnant with Joffrey's - or someone's - child before their wedding, which is why she needed the moon tea from Pycelle when Joffrey was killed before the bedding.) This creates a crisis in the succession, even if Tommen is still alive, destabilizing the Lannister hold on the Iron Throne.

Of course, Tyrells controlling a Baratheon (Lannister) heir would not be something Varys would want, but he probably knows who is the real father of Margaery's child, and can reveal that information when it serves his purpose. If she is not pregnant, he can assure the Tyrells that Margaery's marriage to Tommen can be annulled and (falsely) promise that Aegon will marry her after he has things under control in the Seven Kingdoms. First, he wants Aegon on the throne.

I'm not sure that anyone would believe Margaery to be pregnant by the 9 year old Tommen. But I do think you raise an interesting point and one I'd not heard previously

That she may have been pregnant prior to her wedding to Joffrey. And after his death had to abort. My guess would be Renly, whom obviously was gay. But Who was striving to be king non the less and as such would need heirs. And so I'd guess he closed his eyes and thought of Westeros.  Maybe the Tyrells felt they could get away with it, as they'd just proclaim how the child took after their grandfather- Robert. 

[chrisdaw]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to take Olenna's frank talk all that seriously.

Yes there is, because it runs in line with her actions, because it's information given willingly which she did not have to and which serves no purpose of hers and because we are given absolutely no reason at any point to doubt any it. It is text denial.

[Daemon The Black Dragon]

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon doesn't have a fleet. He cannot stop or defeat the Ironborn. Aegon wants the Iron Throne. He does not want to get entangled in some longterm campaign against the Ironborn while his enemies can regroup. He is way too close to KL right now to go anywhere else, especially if Dorne joins him.

Without ships even 20,000 additional Dornish spears wouldn't help him against the Ironborn. Which is why Aegon is going to ignore this whole crisis, at least until he has taken the Iron Throne. Then he might begin a campaign to help the Lords of the Reach and they will then have no other choice but to acknowledge him as their king because Cersei's children will be dead/deposed, not to mention that the Lords of the Reach are most likely going to need his (or rather: anybody's) help against the Ironborn.

What did Aegon and his men just arrive in Westeros with, if not a fleet? No, I don't think Aegon/JonCon will fight the IB at sea. More like their help push them out of the Reach on land.  Anyway Aegon needs more men and allies to even think about making a push on to KL. His best chance at getting the men he needs is in the Reach..

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Daemon The Black Dragon said:

What did Aegon and his men just arrive in Westeros with, if not a fleet? No, I don't think Aegon/JonCon will fight the IB at sea. More like their help push them out of the Reach on land.  Anyway Aegon needs more men and allies to even think about making a push on to KL. His best chance at getting the men he needs is in the Reach..

No, his best chance to get men is Dorne. The Martells have 20,000 men right now in the Red Mountains, and those are the armies Aegon needs. The only marshaled men the Reach right now has are either with Mace in KL or with Willas and Garlan in the southern reaches trying to fight the Ironborn. Even if some Reach Lords close to the Stormlands would declare for Aegon they would not likely be able to muster as many troops as Dorne already has mustered. Not to mention that most of those lords would be stupid to leave their lands undefended right now, considering the Ironborn threat.

Oh, and the Golden Company did get across the Narrow Sea aboard Volantene ships or independent ships they boarded at Volantis. We know they did not own them nor could they decide where the ships dropped them off. That's why parts of their forces stranded on Tarth and Estermont rather than the mainland of Westeros.

3 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Yes there is, because it runs in line with her actions, because it's information given willingly which she did not have to and which serves no purpose of hers and because we are given absolutely no reason at any point to doubt any it. It is text denial.

There is a discrepancy between your view that Olenna is an isolationist and the fact that Olenna actively influences Mace's marriage policy. Why is it that she can cancel the Cersei-Willas match yet not prevent the Renly-Margaery, Joffrey-Margaery, etc. deal? Don't you think she should be able to use the same arguments she used to convince Mace that Willas-Cersei was stupid to convince him that Renly-Margaery or Joffrey-Margaery was stupid?

We just don't know enough about the internal affairs of House Tyrell to make this kind of proclamations.

[The Drunkard]

43 minutes ago, Daemon The Black Dragon said:

What did Aegon and his men just arrive in Westeros with, if not a fleet? No, I don't think Aegon/JonCon will fight the IB at sea. More like their help push them out of the Reach on land.  Anyway Aegon needs more men and allies to even think about making a push on to KL. His best chance at getting the men he needs is in the Reach..

 

According to the Arianne chapter, the army at King's Landing is marching south to take Storm's End and Aegon/JonCon are planning to meet them in battle, so they're not going to have time to rally many lords to their side, and if/when they've won the road to KL will likely be open to them.

Plus, Aegon's best chance at getting more men is Dorne, which has armies nearby, hates the Lannisters, has sent an envoy to treat with him, and whose Prince he is the nephew of supposedly. Men from the Stormlands are also riding off to join him.

[devilish]

Aegon currently does not have the troops to capture KL. His 5-7k army is no match even to the Lannisters who can raise around 25k-35k let alone the Tyrells. However he’s not doomed either.

What is likely to happen is of these scenarios

a-    Aegon settles at the Stormlands were his numbers increase to around 15k. Targ Loyalists will join his cause and the Stormland Lord will pledge fealty to him. At that point Cersei will notice the threat and will orders Mace to march the Reach army against them. The Tyrells will split the troops (as they are still fighting the Greyjoys + they want a strong contingency in KL just in case Margaery needs them) and would send 30k to the Stormlands. This army will be crushed by the intervention of Dorne who will hit them from the rear breaking their spine. The news will infuriate Cersei, who would probably think that Mace is planning to have Aegon on the iron throne with Margaery at his side and would therefore kill Margaery because of it. That would infuriate the Tyrells who will abandon KL and he’ll bend the knee to Aegon, paving the way to KL. 

b-    Cersei decides to get rid of the High Sparrow which would infuriate the Sparrows even further causing riots all over Westeros. Aegon will take the opportunity to declare himself defender of the faith which in turn would swell his numbers and build an army big enough to capture KL. At that point Mace abandon KL taking Margaery with him to HG and Cersei ends up having to face this horde on her own. 
 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, devilish said:

Aegon currently does not have the troops to capture KL. His 5-7k army is no match even to the Lannisters who can raise around 25k-35k let alone the Tyrells. However he’s not doomed either.

The Lannisters no longer have an army in KL. It would take months to raise a new army in the West and get it to KL in time to defend the city against the Golden Company.

Only the Tyrells have a sizable host in KL, about 30,000 men, give or take.

1 hour ago, devilish said:

a-    Aegon settles at the Stormlands were his numbers increase to around 15k. Targ Loyalists will join his cause and the Stormland Lord will pledge fealty to him. At that point Cersei will notice the threat and will orders Mace to march the Reach army against them.

Cersei is not going to order anything because she is no longer in charge. The Small Council took the Regency from her and she is not going to get it back because the Small Council is in the hands of the Tyrells now, especially with both Kevan and Pycelle dead, and Harys Swyft soon in Braavos. Mace is the Hand now, and the Hand speaks with the King's Voice. Even if Mace wouldn't appoint himself the new Lord Regent nobody could dismiss him now while Tommen is still a minor because Mace speaks with his voice now until Tommen comes of age. The Queen Dowager has nothing to do with the governance of the Realm.

Cersei could stage a coup and try to murder Mace, Tarly, and the other Tyrells in the city yet that would fail while there is a large Tyrell army in the city and the Lannisters are down to a few hundred men.

1 hour ago, devilish said:

The Tyrells will split the troops (as they are still fighting the Greyjoys + they want a strong contingency in KL just in case Margaery needs them) and would send 30k to the Stormlands. This army will be crushed by the intervention of Dorne who will hit them from the rear breaking their spine.

There is a chance that Mace will keep half his men (15,000) back in KL while sending the other half to Storm's End. The Golden Company could easily enough crush them considering that they are professional soldiers while most of the Tyrell men would be untrained levies and the like. Not to mention that Aegon has elephants. He would not necessarily need Dorne for that.

In fact, the Golden Company could even beat an army 20,000 or 30,000 men strong if the enemy commander makes a mistake or the Golden Company chooses the battlefield.

1 hour ago, devilish said:

The news will infuriate Cersei, who would probably think that Mace is planning to have Aegon on the iron throne with Margaery at his side and would therefore kill Margaery because of it. That would infuriate the Tyrells who will abandon KL and he’ll bend the knee to Aegon, paving the way to KL.

Cersei is in no position to murder Margaery unless she sends out Ser Robert on a killing spree. But if she wants to do this she is more likely to do it sooner rather than later. She will fear that the Tyrells and Tyrion murdered Kevan and Pycelle, and that she and Tommen are next.

1 hour ago, devilish said:

b-    Cersei decides to get rid of the High Sparrow which would infuriate the Sparrows even further causing riots all over Westeros. Aegon will take the opportunity to declare himself defender of the faith which in turn would swell his numbers and build an army big enough to capture KL. At that point Mace abandon KL taking Margaery with him to HG and Cersei ends up having to face this horde on her own. 

Cersei also doesn't have the means to kill the High Septon. Even with Ser Robert that should be impossible. He should not be able to storm the Great Sept all by himself.

[devilish]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Lannisters no longer have an army in KL. It would take months to raise a new army in the West and get it to KL in time to defend the city against the Golden Company.

Only the Tyrells have a sizable host in KL, about 30,000 men, give or take.

Cersei is not going to order anything because she is no longer in charge. The Small Council took the Regency from her and she is not going to get it back because the Small Council is in the hands of the Tyrells now, especially with both Kevan and Pycelle dead, and Harys Swyft soon in Braavos. Mace is the Hand now, and the Hand speaks with the King's Voice. Even if Mace wouldn't appoint himself the new Lord Regent nobody could dismiss him now while Tommen is still a minor because Mace speaks with his voice now until Tommen comes of age. The Queen Dowager has nothing to do with the governance of the Realm.

Cersei could stage a coup and try to murder Mace, Tarly, and the other Tyrells in the city yet that would fail while there is a large Tyrell army in the city and the Lannisters are down to a few hundred men.

There is a chance that Mace will keep half his men (15,000) back in KL while sending the other half to Storm's End. The Golden Company could easily enough crush them considering that they are professional soldiers while most of the Tyrell men would be untrained levies and the like. Not to mention that Aegon has elephants. He would not necessarily need Dorne for that.

In fact, the Golden Company could even beat an army 20,000 or 30,000 men strong if the enemy commander makes a mistake or the Golden Company chooses the battlefield.

Cersei is in no position to murder Margaery unless she sends out Ser Robert on a killing spree. But if she wants to do this she is more likely to do it sooner rather than later. She will fear that the Tyrells and Tyrion murdered Kevan and Pycelle, and that she and Tommen are next.

Cersei also doesn't have the means to kill the High Septon. Even with Ser Robert that should be impossible. He should not be able to storm the Great Sept all by himself.

I can't really debate against that. However I still think that we haven't seen the end of Cersei

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, devilish said:

I can't really debate against that. However I still think that we haven't seen the end of Cersei

Me neither. I just don't think her future lies in KL near the Iron Throne. I think she will flee the city, fearing the Tyrells intend to kill her. It could be that she drags Tommen along and is accidentally killed in the process. That would deal her another major blow. Myrcella might stay behind to become a Tyrell puppet until Aegon takes over (assuming Lady Nym and she make it to the capital - they could also be captured by the Golden Company).

Cersei will then eventually hook up and marry Euron (after it turned out that Dany is allegedly dead or not coming to Westeros), and they will become the major antagonists of the second half of the series. If she flees KL by ship - which is the only way that makes sense considering she would have to cross the Riverlands to get to Casterly Rock overland - it is very likely she might rush into Euron while she is sailing around Westeros.

Even if Euron crushes the Redwyne fleet he will need the gold of Casterly Rock and the support of a major house if he truly wants to conquer Westeros. The Ironborn alone simply cannot do that.