Kitten of the Canals

What will happen to Stannis in TWOW?

184 posts in this topic

Difficult to say.

I have several theories on how the initial stages of events will play out in the North but nothing comprehensive. 

  1. The way Martin has sequenced events, it looks like Justin Massey will arrive at Castle Black only to be told that Stannis has been killed and his army defeated, Jon has been assassinated, and Selyse, Shireen, Melisandre and the Queen's Men have fled to the Nightfort.
  2. Massey will then proceed to Braavos to hire the sellsword army on behalf of Shireen, with 'Arya Stark' in tow (which is how the real Arya Stark will filter back into the main storyline).
  3. Melisandre, knowing something is up with Jon and Ghost, because of her visions and her connection with Ghost, will prevent Jon's body from being burned and will abscond with the body and Ghost to the Nightfort. How? Glamoring someone else's body in much the same fashion as she pulled off the Mance Rayder switcheroo. 
  4. My conjecture on the Pink Letter is a little complicated. I think Stannis is in the middle of playing a ruse on the Boltons. The forces of Stannis and Manderly combined to slaughter the Freys. However, Manderly's men report back to Ramsay, who is bringing up the rear of the forces sent from Winterfell, that Stannis is dead and provide his sword as proof. The men returning to Winterfell in Frey armor are really Stannis men playing Freys. Tensions are high in the castle and, at the time the letter is written, Ramsay has already killed Roose and Fat Walda. 
  5. At some point, Shireen will be burned alive, which will resurrect Jon Snow. The timing, however, remains a mystery to me. I still think it makes more sense that Melisandre does it after convincing Selyse that it will resurrect Stannis, even if Melisandre herself knows differently, then Stannis ordering it. 

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19 hours ago, Faint said:

Difficult to say.

I have several theories on how the initial stages of events will play out in the North but nothing comprehensive. 

  1. The way Martin has sequenced events, it looks like Justin Massey will arrive at Castle Black only to be told that Stannis has been killed and his army defeated, Jon has been assassinated, and Selyse, Shireen, Melisandre and the Queen's Men have fled to the Nightfort.
  2. Massey will then proceed to Braavos to hire the sellsword army on behalf of Shireen, with 'Arya Stark' in tow (which is how the real Arya Stark will filter back into the main storyline).
  3. Melisandre, knowing something is up with Jon and Ghost, because of her visions and her connection with Ghost, will prevent Jon's body from being burned and will abscond with the body and Ghost to the Nightfort. How? Glamoring someone else's body in much the same fashion as she pulled off the Mance Rayder switcheroo. 
  4. My conjecture on the Pink Letter is a little complicated. I think Stannis is in the middle of playing a ruse on the Boltons. The forces of Stannis and Manderly combined to slaughter the Freys. However, Manderly's men report back to Ramsay, who is bringing up the rear of the forces sent from Winterfell, that Stannis is dead and provide his sword as proof. The men returning to Winterfell in Frey armor are really Stannis men playing Freys. Tensions are high in the castle and, at the time the letter is written, Ramsay has already killed Roose and Fat Walda. 
  5. At some point, Shireen will be burned alive, which will resurrect Jon Snow. The timing, however, remains a mystery to me. I still think it makes more sense that Melisandre does it after convincing Selyse that it will resurrect Stannis, even if Melisandre herself knows differently, then Stannis ordering it. 

I've seen the Massey travelling to Braavosi speculation beforehand but i have often wondered how likely it actually is to happen, since Jon "borrowed" Tycho Nestoris' ships for the Hardhome mission along with all of the other available ships from Eastwatch. I feel like that may end up being significant but maybe not. I suppose by the time Massey makes it to the Wall the survivors of Hardhome could have made it back to Eastwatch already. I do actually think it's a likely outcome by the way, just pondering the logistics of it.

As for the rest, it all sounds pretty reasonable. I do wonder where the Wildlings fit into all of the goings on at the Wall though. Very likely to want revenge for Jon's death so there could be lots of infighting between the various castles along the Wall. In terms of named Wildlings, I suspect Val will end up with Melisandre and Selyse (not necessarily by choice of course, though it could be if she thinks it is best for her and Monster's safety). She could add a voice to advocating or supporting the burning of Shireen (thinking Shireen's greyscale poses a risk to them). 

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2 hours ago, HelenaExMachina said:

I've seen the Massey travelling to Braavosi speculation beforehand but i have often wondered how likely it actually is to happen, since Jon "borrowed" Tycho Nestoris' ships for the Hardhome mission along with all of the other available ships from Eastwatch. I feel like that may end up being significant but maybe not. I suppose by the time Massey makes it to the Wall the survivors of Hardhome could have made it back to Eastwatch already. I do actually think it's a likely outcome by the way, just pondering the logistics of it.

As for the rest, it all sounds pretty reasonable. I do wonder where the Wildlings fit into all of the goings on at the Wall though. Very likely to want revenge for Jon's death so there could be lots of infighting between the various castles along the Wall. In terms of named Wildlings, I suspect Val will end up with Melisandre and Selyse (not necessarily by choice of course, though it could be if she thinks it is best for her and Monster's safety). She could add a voice to advocating or supporting the burning of Shireen (thinking Shireen's greyscale poses a risk to them). 

The question of the Wildings is interesting. My thinking on the issue is that Bowen Marsh and his conspirators are a relatively small faction within the Night's Watch so I am not sure what long term effects the assassination will have on relations with the Wildings. 

It is interesting that you think Val will head to the Nightfort with Selyse's retinue. How do you figure? I have a hard time seeing how she could be forced into it, there are still plenty of Wildings at the Wall (or maybe I have this wrong). From what I remember, Selyse has less than 50 men. 

I also have in mind that Selyse and Melisandre will want to depart to the Nightfort immediately. I think it might be as simple as them burning the fake Jon body the next day then departing. 

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It's not my theory, but Radio Westeros, that fake Arya will go to the House of Black and White, where Arya will see her, where she may find out that Jon was murdered which will prompt Arya to return to Westeros. I can't think of anything in Essos that would cause her to head back to Westeros other than the news about Jon or Nymeria running into Uncat and recognizing her while Arya is warging her.

As far as Stannis goes, I believe he wins the battle, but it leaves him bad shape, that he ends up at the Nightfort where he has one last tryst with Mel and ends up dying. I don't think we have time for the Night King angle, so I think he just bites it while helping to birth something horrible.

Does Shireen burn? Maybe before Stannis gets to the Wall if Mel believes the letter, remember she's not been able to find Stannis in her visions so she might believe he is dead at some point and burn Shireen trying to bring him back.

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17 hours ago, Whitering said:

It's not my theory, but Radio Westeros, that fake Arya will go to the House of Black and White, where Arya will see her, where she may find out that Jon was murdered which will prompt Arya to return to Westeros. I can't think of anything in Essos that would cause her to head back to Westeros other than the news about Jon or Nymeria running into Uncat and recognizing her while Arya is warging her.

As far as Stannis goes, I believe he wins the battle, but it leaves him bad shape, that he ends up at the Nightfort where he has one last tryst with Mel and ends up dying. I don't think we have time for the Night King angle, so I think he just bites it while helping to birth something horrible.

Does Shireen burn? Maybe before Stannis gets to the Wall if Mel believes the letter, remember she's not been able to find Stannis in her visions so she might believe he is dead at some point and burn Shireen trying to bring him back.

If Jeyne Poole travels to Braavos, Arya would likely learn that Petyr Baelish turned her into a whore, and Arya could very well begin to learn that Petyr Baelish betrayed her father. 

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Ya, I have a crackpot that Sansa will die and it's actually Arya change into Sansa that cuts off his head.

Edited by Whitering

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3 hours ago, Whitering said:

Ya, I have a crackpot that Sansa will die and it's actually Arya change into Sansa that cuts off his head.

Sansa might die, but I don't think she has to die...

Quote

"Mummers change their faces with artifice," the kindly man was saying, "and sorcerers use glamors, weaving light and shadow and desire to make illusions that trick the eye. These arts you shall learn, but what we do here goes deeper. Wise men can see through artifice, and glamors dissolve before sharp eyes, but the face you are about to don will be as true and solid as that face you were born with. Keep your eyes closed."

The Ugly Little Girl, Dance 64

Have you seen this

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I want to put a slightly different angle on the question of what will happen to Stannis by pointing at what I believe is the parallel between Stannis and Aegon in the ice arc and the fire arc.

I won't suprise anybody by pointing at how the fire and ice arcs seem to move symetrically:

In the fire arc we have Dany who has been supposed to go to King's Landing for ages but being kept in Meereen by practical difficulties and largely her sense of duty towards the slaves she rescued.

- KL is what Dany sees as her destiny but where she is stuck in is Meereen.

In the ice arc we have Jon who time and again gets tempted/pushed towards his Stark side and Winterfell but being kept back at Castle Black by his vow to the Night's Watch and wish to save the wildlings.

- Winterfell seems to be Jon's destiny but where he is stuck is Castle Black.

So in both arcs the heroes are being delayed. GRRM has found ways to move the plot without them though. He has introduced 'placeholders' that fulfill the function that the delayed heroes would have been expected to fulfill.

In the fire arc this placeholder is Aegon. Dany keeps getting delayed but Aegon begins the Targ landing and reconquest storyline without her. (Whether he is real or not does not matter in this respect. He fulfulls the function. Indeed him turning out to be false would actually make the plot work better in the end since Dany has to be fitted in later.)

In the ice arc this placeholder is Stannis. Jon keeps getting held at Castle Black but Stannis starts the reconquest of the north without him. (That Stannis is the wrong Azor Ahai fits this well and mirrors Aegon's probably turning out to be false too. Also Stannis being a fake Azor Azai is a prerequisite for Jon being fitted in later.)

Since this is so it seems likely that Aegon's and Stannis' destinies will be somewhat similar to each other in the future too.

Which - no surprise there - means: failure in each case. To make room for the guy/gal they have been placeholders for.

 

 

Edited by Amris
spelling

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On 9/22/2017 at 1:41 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Sansa might die, but I don't think she has to die...

The Ugly Little Girl, Dance 64

Have you seen this

Yes. I kind of subscribe to the theory posited by History of Westeros that Sansa will become Queen, like Elizabeth 1.

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On 6/18/2017 at 10:54 PM, Sullen said:

Defeat the Boltons for sure, I do see him burning Shireen as some point too, and he'll no doubt die against Dany.

If he takes the Throne before biting it, no clue, though I don't believe he will.

I have a feeling for some reason that there will be a point when Stannis is put to a choice between burning his daughter or allow great harm come to Westeros. I wonder if there won't be twist in the books, where Stannis will walk the pyre himself for the sake of his daughter and Westeros, fulfilling the following passage.

"I know the cost! Last night, gazing into that hearth, I saw things in the flames as well. I saw a king, a crown of fire on his brows, burning... burning, Davos. His own crown consumed his flesh and turned him into ash. Do you think I need Melisandre to tell me what that means? Or you?"

Edited by nihilsciens

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I think that Ramsay is held up in Winterfell, desperate and paranoid, having lost almost all of his host. I do think all of those ships at White Harbor are there to be filled with men and the Davos Timeline makes it feasable that he is back with Rickon and Shaggy. I think Stannis lives a bit longer but I do not think he will ever sit on the Iron Throne.

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Stannis case seems desperate. But I believe it's only an illusion. The Manderlys and Freys have another business than attacking him. And some holes in some lake could be to his advantage. He knows his betrayers. The Boltons can't say as much. The situation inside Winterfell is explosive. I doubt Lady Dustin and most Northmen are really holding to the Boltons. Even Ramsey may feel the opportunity to get rid of his father without looking the murderer.

I believe Stannis will win Winterfell. But he will be too weak to influence much thereafter. With Jon probably now obviously AAR for Melisandre. With all remaining Northmen likely behind Rickon and whoever is with him (Benjen?). My guess is Stannis will take to Black and become the next LC. Or at least to fully dedicate himself to the fight against the Others.

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I don't like the thought of Sansa coming to take the castle from Stannis though, he did nothing to her family. I think Stannis would even welcome Sansa as he would believe her claim to be valid, and if she said the proper things to him. Stannis taking the black is a decent idea, I just don't see him doing that.

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I believe his army will take Winterfell. The manderly's will probably go the Stannis' side but the karstarks might start a battle before the real battle starts.

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22 hours ago, Whitering said:

I don't like the thought of Sansa coming to take the castle from Stannis though, he did nothing to her family. I think Stannis would even welcome Sansa as he would believe her claim to be valid, and if she said the proper things to him. Stannis taking the black is a decent idea, I just don't see him doing that.

Stannis would only allow Lady Lannister to take Winterfell if her marriage were annulled, and if she wed one of his bannermen. 

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7 hours ago, Arthur Connington said:

I believe his army will take Winterfell. The manderly's will probably go the Stannis' side but the karstarks might start a battle before the real battle starts.

Have you read the Theon spoiler chapter? 

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2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Stannis would only allow Lady Lannister to take Winterfell if her marriage were annulled, and if she wed one of his bannermen. 

I don't know, if she was married to Harry and they'd brought an army up, and her marriage to Tyrion had been annulled. Heck, Mel would annul it. I don't think Sansa will stay married to Tyrion, but heck, who knows.

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On 22-11-2017 at 4:51 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

Have you read the Theon spoiler chapter? 

I have now :-)

 

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On 11/23/2017 at 0:11 PM, Arthur Connington said:

I have now :-)

 

:thumbsup:

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Quote

Viserys stood before her, screaming. "The dragon does not beg, slut. You do not command the dragon. I am the dragon, and I will be crowned." The molten gold trickled down his face like wax, burning deep channels in his flesh. "I am the dragon and I will be crowned!" he shrieked, and his fingers snapped like snakes, biting at her nipples, pinching, twisting, even as his eyes burst and ran like jelly down seared and blackened cheeks.

 

Quote

"I know the cost! Last night, gazing into that hearth, I saw things in the flames as well. I saw a king, a crown of fire on his brows, burning . . . burning, Davos. His own crown consumed his flesh and turned him into ash. Do you think I need Melisandre to tell me what that means? Or you?" The king moved, so his shadow fell upon King's Landing. "If Joffrey should die . . . what is the life of one bastard boy against a kingdom?"

 

He'll survive the battle with the Snow, but unless he sees a vision from the past... We all know Dany for the pyromaniac she is and she also wants to slay lies such as shadowless blue eyed kings wielding colorful swords.

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