Jojen Dayne-Reed

(f)Aegon consensus ?

72 posts in this topic

Quick question guys.  Is there a consensus on (f)Aegon.  From my time on this forum I had thought the majority opinion was that R+L=J and that Aegon is Illyrio's son and Vary's nephew and a Brightflame/Blackfire.  

But I just read a sight that referred to him as R&L's son definitively.  Is this still an up in the air thing? Did I miss a change of opinion or was it more divided than I thought?

 

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I would say there is much controversy over both of those claims. But it is hard to gauge the level of consensus. For instance, most people who don't subscribe to R+L=J (like me) don't bother bringing it up in the main forum, because lots of people are super irrational about their level of certainty and just go off the walls bananas.

There is certainly more of a consensus around R+L=J than Aegon being Illyrio's son. But I think a lot of people subscribe to the theory you described because of this wonderful thread from a few years ago:

LOL I just read my own response from back then. Here was my take on the theory at the time:

Quote

from OP:

  On 2/24/2014 at 11:03 AM, Veltigar said:
 
 

_ The Dragon sign in AFFC

 
_Faegon being supported by the GC
 
_Illyrio’s “BF have died out in the male line” comment (implying that there are still descendants from the female line).
 
_ He clearly loves the boy, which is strange since he was really indifferent about the two other Targs
 
_ The boy clothes in his manse
 
_ Varys shaves his head, just like Egg does in the D&E tales. Best explanation is that he’s trying to hide some Valyrian traits there
 
_ Varys castration (power of kingsblood)
 
_ Illyrio was a warrior in his youth. We know martial prowess is one of the most important parts of House Blackfyre
 
_ Illyrio’s description matches nicely with that of Aegon IV the Unworthy (he’s fat, corrupt, etc.) when you lay them side by side. Just like Faegon seems to have a striking resemblance to the original Daemon Blackfyre.
 
_ In THK, the first time we are really introduced to Aerion’s madness is when we see him abuse his power to manhandle a bunch of mummers because the dragon in their puppet show died. Therefore there is a lot of irony in Aerion’s descendant being a mummer himself (Varys) and is about to bring his own mummer’s dragon into the game
 
_ It ties up loose ends. It is often (and quite correctly) stated that due to the Blackfyre’s enormous impact on the D&E tales they are bound to return in some form during ASOIAF. The same could be said of Aerion, who’s threatening presence still looms large over Egg, even after he’s banished.
 
_ Thematically, a marriage alliance between the Scions of House BF (Illyrio) and House Brightflame makes a lot more sense than “two buddies teaming up to take down the system and then one buddy falls for the other ones sister” (which sounds like the premise of a bad heist movie). We have seen that alliances sealed by marriage are hugely important and an integral part of the fabric of this series (e.g. Rickard’s Southron ambitions, Ned and Jon marrying Cat and Lysa, Bobby B marrying Cersei, Dany marrying Drogo, etc.) and it would make a lot more sense if the Illyrio-Serra union happened along this line as well.
 
_ It better explains Illyrio’s trust in the GC and his motivation in general. We know he doesn’t really think highly of Westerosi and that he seems to symbolize the greedy free city merchant class. So, it really seems strange that he’s as convinced of the GC support as he seems to be. If he was just a merchant he would be a lot less certain of himself. I also highly doubt that he would risk his only son (whom he clearly loves) in order to claim the IT. If Illyrio wants a lot of power he would be better off trying to take over a Free City.

 

Veltigar, these are the main points you made in your OP that have me 99% convinced. I was already in the BF camp, but I really like how you tied in Brightflame.

Going a bit further into the general descended through female line thing: I always found it odd that the Dornish had different laws concerning female succession. It does serve as a nice GM touch of realistic politics resulting from the complex history of Dorne and the 7 Kingdoms, but I always figured it would be important to the story in tWoW. Back in my ignorant days (had only read asoiaf once, ha) I assumed that this would simply be important because Dorne would try to crown Myrcella (cuz why not?). This will still probably happen (gold crowns, gold shrouds), but I think the potential of fAegon to have a legitimate, unbroken succession to the throne through the female line works even better if Dorne takes over and changes the law throughout the kingdoms. And how could Doran not win, he's the grass. ^_^

Of course, this was before PJ made his video series The Genetics of War and Dragons (a theory that I fully subscribe to):

 

So, now I still think Veltigar was probably right, but I also think that Aegon, while "fake", will actually be able to ride a dragon and will fight Dany (and probably lose), because he may have inherited the necessary genes from his mother.

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13 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

(f)Aegon was born as Quentyn Martell.  Doran did a baby swap.  Doran used another boy (guess who) to pay his blood price to the Yronwoods, and sent his wife Mellario (alias Septa Lemore) to hang out with their son in Essos.  Doran and Mellario are plotting to put their own son on the Iron Throne as "Aegon".

Spoiler

If that's true it would be odd if Arianne seduces (f)Aegon in the next book.

 

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17 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

(f)Aegon was born as Quentyn Martell.  Doran did a baby swap.  Doran used another boy (guess who) to pay his blood price to the Yronwoods, and sent his wife Mellario (alias Septa Lemore) to hang out with their son in Essos.  Doran and Mellario are plotting to put their own son on the Iron Throne as "Aegon".

LOL evidence?

That would certainly be an interesting explanation. How exactly do you propose Doran pulled off this impossible baby swap?

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1 hour ago, Jojen Dayne-Reed said:

But I just read a sight that referred to him as R&L's son definitively.

Perhaps you could/would link the site that states this. It would be helpful to the discussion as it relates to the basic 5W's.

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Posted (edited)

29 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

LOL evidence?

That would certainly be an interesting explanation. How exactly do you propose Doran pulled off this impossible baby swap?

Pfff, evidence! Who needs evidence? :D

And btw I agree w/ you irt consensus.

Edited by kissdbyfire

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3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Pfff, evidence! Who needs evidence? :D

LOL damn you're right, I have been working way too hard collecting quotes for my next big post!

11 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

By sending the wrong baby.  Preferably one with a certain family resemblance.  Like a certain orphaned cousin, conveniently about the same age, and who's not even supposed to be alive.

The Yronwoods aren't exactly local.  How are they supposed to know the difference?  By browsing official baby pictures on facebook?

LOL that was pretty funny. :D 

But you misunderstood me. I get how Doran would pass off Aegon as Quentyn, and how his wife could potentially pose as Septa Lemore. She was even hanging out with a couple Orphans from Dorne. So that is all legitimately intriguing.

But how exactly do you propose that Doran got Aegon in the first place? Is he working with Varys? Because that I would find hard to believe.

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8 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

Exactly!  You can wait a few years.  Then you can ask me how I knew.

You read my mind, that's exactly my plan! ;)

 

5 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

LOL damn you're right, I have been working way too hard collecting quotes for my next big post!

Tell me more.

5 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

LOL that was pretty funny. :D 

But you misunderstood me. I get how Doran would pass off Aegon as Quentyn, and how his wife could potentially pose as Septa Lemore. She was even hanging out with a couple Orphans from Dorne. So that is all legitimately intriguing.

But how exactly do you propose that Doran got Aegon in the first place? Is he working with Varys? Because that I would find hard to believe.

Don't start! :spank:

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2 hours ago, Jojen Dayne-Reed said:

 Is this still an up in the air thing? Did I miss a change of opinion or was it more divided than I thought?

Oh man, you missed the release of winds where the author cleared everything up for all of us. I don't want to spoil it for you so you will just have to read the book 

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25 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Pfff, evidence! Who needs evidence? :D

My weird sense of humor kicked in.

Evidence, evidence, we don't no stinking evidence -----

 

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3 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Tell me more.

Well I am working on multiple things and doing another full reread of the main series (my 6th?). I believe my next post will be something that like 1% of people will believe: Mance stole LF's dagger from Robert's luggage, gave it to the assassin, set the WF library on fire, and planted the bag of silver.

37 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Don't start! :spank:

LOL sorry, I was just trying to be diplomatic :P 

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21 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

How did Doran get Aegon?   He's his uncle.   If you were fleeing KL with baby Aegon, who else would you smuggle the baby to?  Would you not hope Doran would keep the baby secret and safe and not hand his sister's son over to King Herod Baratheon?  

I suppose there might be other possible answers, but Doran would definitely be an obvious option.

A better question would be, how did Varys find out?  He never claimed he did the smuggling himself, though for all I know he might have done.

Are they working together?  Apparently.  At least, Doran was working with Viserys, or said he was.  Viserys was working with Illyrio.  And Illyrio is working with Varys.   That's not to say that they are all necessarily 100% on the same page.  

There are subtle indications that Doran knows more about (f)Aegon's invasion than he lets on to his subordinates.  Doran dispenses information on a need-to-know basis.

OK... I see where we are totally on different pages :P 

I doubt that Doran and Varys are working together. They are probably rivals. Doran was never working with Viserys and Viserys was never really working with Illyrio. Viserys obviously didn't know about the King Aegon plan. Additionally, Illyrio's agents (Jorah and Dany's handmaidens) basically pushed Viserys to his death. So the conclusion that Doran is working with Varys based on that line of logic doesn't make much sense.

Yes, Doran seems to know about Aegon's invasion. In fact, Yandy and Ysilla have probably been spying for him for years. And Oberyn's friend Marwyn has a glass candle (which Sarella has access to). I doubt he wants Aegon to succeed. He seems to be preparing for another big war that he will simply keep Dorne out of again.

I guess we will see in TWOW :D 

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Posted (edited)

41 minutes ago, Lew Theobald said:

Come on, don't be shy.  Say what you really think.  It will only make it all the more fun for me when you find out I was right.

I think your theory is technically possible but extremely unlikely due to lack of hints that Doran and Varys are working together, and the non-lack of hints that they are rivals.

Also, why is Illyrio helping them if Aegon is not his son?

Edited by 40 Thousand Skeletons

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3 hours ago, Jojen Dayne-Reed said:

Quick question guys.  Is there a consensus on (f)Aegon.  From my time on this forum I had thought the majority opinion was that R+L=J and that Aegon is Illyrio's son and Vary's nephew and a Brightflame/Blackfire.  

But I just read a sight that referred to him as R&L's son definitively.  Is this still an up in the air thing? Did I miss a change of opinion or was it more divided than I thought?

 

There is no consensus. Between 40-50% of the fandom believe he's a Blackfyre, and usually also Illyrio's son. Included in that is a subset who believe that he is also a Brightflame descendant. This is usually called Brightfyre theory. Good theory too.

Then we have the rest of the people. Some believe he is genuine. Some think he is Jon's twin. Some think he is Rhaegar and Lyanna's and that Jon is actually Ned's son with Ashara Dayne (they apparently are unacquainted with the timeline*). Some think he's a random kid from Flea Bottom, aka the Pisswater Prince.

And there are those like me who think he's either real or a Blackfyre but don't much care which and lean toward real because the drama potential is actually much higher if he's Rhaegar and Elia's son (and because honestly he makes a better smokescreen for a Blackfyre than an actual Blackfyre...who wants a pretender from an exiled line who doesn't even know he's a pretender from an exiled line?).

 

*the timeline comment is about Jon's parentage, not Aegon's, but I've found that those who think R+L=A and don't include a twin usually also think N+A=J.

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17 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I think your theory is technically possible but extremely unlikely due to lack of hints that Doran and Varys are working together, and the non-lack of hints that they are rivals.

Also, why is Illyrio helping them if Aegon is not his son?

The real flaw in the plan is that it requires that the real Aegon looks like a Martell despite the fact that the author is on record as saying he took after Rhaegar in appearance. Rhaenys looked like Elia, Aegon looked like Rhaegar. It's in an SSM. 

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4 hours ago, Jojen Dayne-Reed said:

Quick question guys.  Is there a consensus on (f)Aegon.  From my time on this forum I had thought the majority opinion was that R+L=J and that Aegon is Illyrio's son and Vary's nephew and a Brightflame/Blackfire.  

But I just read a sight that referred to him as R&L's son definitively.  Is this still an up in the air thing? Did I miss a change of opinion or was it more divided than I thought?

 

In surveys that have been done, the agreement R+L=J is about 98%. That actually is about as much of a consensus as you're likely to get on anything in these forums.

When it comes to Aegon, it is more like 50/50. Of those who think Aegon is fake, only a portion buy into the Brightflame/Blackfire theory. The reason why you may have come to the impression that more people believe in these things comes down to the answer 40 Thousand Skeletons gave for the reason people stop talking about the fact they don't believe R+L=J. When you try to point out the flaws in the Aegon is fake theories, those who believe that become quite irrational. Most people don't even try to engage in discussion about those ideas anymore.

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, Lew Theobald said:

Aegon looked "like a Targaryen" when a baby.  Specifically, he had fair hair.  But things change, as babies age.  In particular, colors often darken (eyes, hair, skin).    Happens all the time.   The world is full of brown-haired adults that were once blond babies.

They don't change for Targaryen babies. Real world genetics do not apply in a series where you have people with dragonblood. 

I just finished reading The Rogue Prince. All of Rhaenyra's children were born with the looks they kept their whole lives. The older boys were all born with brown hair, her sons with Daemon both born with silver hair and purple eyes. Those are the looks they kept. Same thing with Alicent's children, which was why a lot of people claimed Rhaenyra's older boys were fathered by Harwin Strong. Nobody's hair changes colors in this storyworld short of the natural aging process*, nor does anyone's eyes. And you may have noticed from Dany's chapters that Targaryens don't tan.

GRRM is not a geneticist and he's writing a fantasy series, not a scientific dissertation.

*I forgot about Theon but again it's an accelerated aging process brought on by extreme stress 

Edited by Lady Blizzardborn

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3 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

Oh man, you missed the release of winds where the author cleared everything up for all of us. I don't want to spoil it for you so you will just have to read the book 

:lol:

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2 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

The real flaw in the plan is that it requires that the real Aegon looks like a Martell despite the fact that the author is on record as saying he took after Rhaegar in appearance. Rhaenys looked like Elia, Aegon looked like Rhaegar. It's in an SSM. 

@Lew Theobald

I was unaware of that SSM. I think that definitely foils your theory Lew Theobald. :D

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Definitely no consensus...

 

Who is Aegon VI/Young Griff?

 
 
The son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell 1211   24.6%
A Blackfyre descendant 2545   51.7%
A Brightflame descendant 28     0.6%
A Blackfyre-Brightflame (combined Targ lines) descendant 302   6.1%
A random boy from Essos with Valyrian looks 368   7.5%
Don't Know/No Opinion 405    8.2%
Other 68   1.4%

 

From a large (5000 samples) reddit poll in 2015...

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1faJx4pvYnKHZu8Wdw9LKEHSuuf4IVnOrVRukWwv1sA4/viewanalytics#

There's a dozen different versions of the fake Aegon theory and most people supporting any version like to make posts as if the idea that he's fake is as certain/popular as R+L=J (95% in this poll) when it's actually quite significantly less.

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