US Politics: What's a couple hundred billion between friends?

[DMC]

12 minutes ago, Mexal said:

No, I don't think so. It's early. To assume the only thing to come out of Flynn flipping is a bit of information on one specific situation (Russia sanctions call) seems naive. I just don't see any way that Mueller allows Flynn to agree to a light plea deal to give them nothing that's really considered criminal and I highly doubt that they agreed to a deal to get KT McFarland. This is just beginning, not over.

Yup.  I understand everyone wants to rush to understand all the implications for Flynn flipping, but just have patience and let Mueller do his thing.  As far as special investigations go, he's actually producing results at a very quick rate.

[Mudguard]

It's too bad that the FBI or Mueller hasn't interviewed Trump yet.  It would have been nice to get Trump on the record and then have him contradicted by Flynn.  Of course, Trump would probably just claim that Flynn's lying, since Flynn is now an admitted liar.

Has Kushner already been interviewed by the FBI or Mueller?  In the past, his excuse was that he forgot to mention his Russian contacts.  If he talked to the FBI or Mueller and lied, I don't think that he can get away with his "I forgot" excuse.  If Flynn testifies that Kushner instructed him to talk with Russia, I wonder if Kushner will also end up denying it and claim that Flynn is lying.  If there isn't any hard evidence (like emails or recorded conversations), it's going to come down to he said/he said situation.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

54 minutes ago, Fez said:

I don't fully understand this, but it seems shady as fuck.

 

I can sort of explain.

• In general, partnerships do not pay tax on their income, their investors pay tax on a pass through basis.
• There is, in general, an exception for so-called "publicly traded" partnerships, which are taxable as corporations.
• There is, of course, an exception to the exception - certain publicly traded partnerships in favored industries (including oil and gas, other resources, and, in fact, passive investment type companies) can continue to achieve flow through treatment.
• Several extremely large private equity funds including Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle and Silverlake, took a portion of their businesses public in the last 10 years.  What they basically did was to give public investors an interest in their management companies.  The funds remain in flow through form underneath.
• I believe what this is saying is that these interests will get the deduction for passthrough income, even though other financial services firms will not.
• ETA - this was the subject of an intense lobbying effort by those specific funds. So, you know, you get what you can pay for.
• Also, Claire McCaskill is saying that she is getting the amendments from lobbyists, not her colleagues (par for the course).  They are basically treating the Democrats as irrelevant to the process because they are.

[Mexal]

The section of the plea agreement that spells out the cooperation. He has to fully cooperate with Mueller, federal, state and local authorities, testify in front of Grand Juries, turn over all evidence of any crimes he's aware of and answer any/all questions without the presence of a lawyer. 

[Mexal]

2 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

It's too bad that the FBI or Mueller hasn't interviewed Trump yet.  It would have been nice to get Trump on the record and then have him contradicted by Flynn.  Of course, Trump would probably just claim that Flynn's lying, since Flynn is now an admitted liar.

Has Kushner already been interviewed by the FBI or Mueller?  In the past, his excuse was that he forgot to mention his Russian contacts.  If he talked to the FBI or Mueller and lied, I don't think that he can get away with his "I forgot" excuse.  If Flynn testifies that Kushner instructed him to talk with Russia, I wonder if Kushner will also end up denying it and claim that Flynn is lying.  If there isn't any hard evidence (like emails or recorded conversations), it's going to come down to he said/he said situation.

They don't interview the main targets until they have enough on them so Trump will be last. As for Kushner, the only interview that has been reported was Kushner being interviewed about Flynn a month or so ago. Logic says they were building a case on Flynn but knew things that they wanted to see if Kushner would volunteer without him feeling like the pressure was on him. If not, they have him lying and can start building leverage there.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

The Congressional Black Caucus is accusing Pelosi of applying a double standard by calling for Conyers to resign while not doing the same for Franken (who now has 5 accusers). Meanwhile, accused rapist President Trump is signaling that he’s open to backing accused child molester Roy Moore.

Pretty much sums up the state of the two parties.

[Mexal]

This is the problem with no one actually reading the fucking bill before voting on it. No one knows what is actually in it.

 

[Sivin]

15 minutes ago, Mexal said:

The section of the plea agreement that spells out the cooperation. He has to fully cooperate with Mueller, federal, state and local authorities, testify in front of Grand Juries, turn over all evidence of any crimes he's aware of and answer any/all questions without the presence of a lawyer. 

Ooh, that sounds kinda sexy! Do we know what kind of sentence he's bargained for? 

BTW, am I the only one who was lucky enough to witness a brief excerpt, released by the wretch himself I assume, of 'admission' in which the man who has plead guilty to willfully betraying democracy cites his thirty-three years of 'service' as a commissioned officer? 

Quite interesting was the referenced 'five years' spent in combat away from his family. Personally, I've never known of a senior commissioned officer who's stories of 'combat' included much more than idle participation in operations carried out by better men and women. Not to mention that 1/6th (less, actually) of his career spent on deployment (which is what one must assume is meant by 'combat') is a pretty relaxed ride all things considered. Most of my older friends spent on the order of five years deployed out of eight enlisted. 

Forgive me, I was distracted by my thoughts of an ignoble end to the life of a witless spider left bound and blinded in its own web of petty deceits. 

 

ETA: Forgot to add an 'S' at the end of 'operationS'. Unforgivable, really. Like betraying the state and then citing prolonged vampirism of said state as an impromptu character reference.

[Mexal]

2 minutes ago, WinterFox said:

Ooh, that sounds kinda sexy! Do we know what kind of sentence he's bargained for? 

BTW, am I the only one who was lucky enough to witness a brief excerpt, released by the wretch himself I assume, of 'admission' in which the man who has plead guilty to willfully betraying democracy cites his thirty-three years of 'service' as a commissioned officer? 

Quite interesting was the referenced 'five years' spent in combat away from his family. Personally, I've never known of a senior commissioned officer who's stories of 'combat' included much more than idle participation in operation carried out by better men and women. Not to mention that 1/6th (less, actually) of his career spent on deployment (which is what one must assume is meant by 'combat') is a pretty relaxed ride all things considered. Most of my older friends spent on the order of five years deployed out of eight enlisted. 

Forgive me, I was distracted by my thoughts of an ignoble end to the life of a witless spider left bound and blinded in its own web of petty deceits. 

Yea, see these tweets. It's a sweetheart deal.

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

4 minutes ago, Mexal said:

This is the problem with no one actually reading the fucking bill before voting on it. No one knows what is actually in it.

 

To be fair it's 515 pages long pre amendment.  And btw, there are all kinds of things in there that do not do what they think they do......

[S John]

25 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Yup.  I understand everyone wants to rush to understand all the implications for Flynn flipping, but just have patience and let Mueller do his thing.  As far as special investigations go, he's actually producing results at a very quick rate.

As to the quick rate, there was a guy on NPR this morning talking about the Tillerson situation who mentioned that Trump doesn't exactly inspire loyalty (not referring to his base, but government folks).  People want to get close to him to manipulate his actions to the extent that manipulating him suits their agenda, taking advantage of the chaos so to speak, but not exactly out of personal loyalty.  Only a fool would think Trump wouldn't throw them under the bus in a heartbeat.  Anyway once closeness to Trump becomes a liability rather than a potential advantage, I don't think folks outside of the royal family itself will be lining up to fall on their sword for the Trumpster.  

[Mudguard]

From what's publicly known right now, there's a good case that at least Flynn and Kushner violated the Logan Act.  Unfortunately, the Logan Act is a law passed in 1799 that has never in 200+ years resulted in prosecution of a single person.  I'm skeptical that Mueller is planning on using the Logan Act to try and take down Kushner and Trump.  There's got to be something more.

Mueller deliberately had Flynn plead guilty to relatively minor charges to shake things up at the White House and get people to start to panic.  I'm guessing that there was communication with the Russians before Trump was elected that can be used to make the case of collusion, and that Flynn has spilled the beans.

There's been reports from unnamed sources in the White House that Trump is very, very, very worried about the development with Flynn.  There wouldn't be any reason to worry unless Trump knows that Flynn could reveal a whole lot more than what was publicly released today.

[OldGimletEye]

I too am a Keynesian. And I will let my Keynesian freak flag fly high.

And if that offends your conservative values, then my suggestion would be for you to go pound sand, you RBC believen’ conservative cretin.

http://www.foxandhoundsdaily.com/2017/11/tax-bill-increase-deficit-lead-recession/

Quote

I am a Keynesian.  By that I mean that John Maynard Keynes’ predictions are generally confirmed by evidence—and that the key to economic vitality is aggregate demand.  While Keynes has been dead for more than 70 years, new evidence suggests that his educated suppositions developed during the great depression were generally correct.

 

Quote

This refutes a particular view of Keynes’s critics, who argue that people tend to smooth consumption so it remains the same from one year to the next, and so that shocks to income should have little impact on consumption.

Its been known for a while that Milton Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis doesn’t hold up empirically very well.

Quote

Anti-Keynesians have argued that multipliers are “incoherent,” and so they are, but only in times of full employment. 

No what is really incoherent is the Walrasian model of general equlibrium upon which the RBC model is founded upon. The reason I gripe about this a lot is because the Walrasian model gets taught in every advanced micro course and reams of economic students end up believing it. It’s useless in the real world. And it should be relegated as an intellectual curiosity, rather than something that actually happens. Now there are some monetarist types that make some fairly decent arguments that you can stimulate aggregate demand through monetary policy only and you don’t need any of that fiscal stuff. But, the credible ones don’t argue that fiscal policy doesn’t work, particularly if the interest rate is held steady.

And when you pair Walrasian market clearing with Rational Expectations, you’ve committed a very, very deadly sin.

Quote

But capital spending is not the only thing management could use the cash for—they could use it to pay themselves more, to pay higher wages, to pay our more dividends, or to repurchase outstanding sha

Right, and this gets back to whether income or subsitution effects dominate if there are corporate tax cuts. If corporate tax cuts happen, then shareholders may want some of the extra cash because they know their income will be higher. Personally from what I know the substitution effects are not strong enough to where an new equilibrium level obtains rapidly.

Quote

Yet we are in a world where corporations have, according to S&P, a record amount of cash on their balance sheets.  This cash is earning very low rates of interest—surely investing the money would earn a higher rate of return than letting it sit.  Still, corporate leaders have decided that there is not enough future demand for their products to justify investment.  And so the money sits.  It has hard to see how advancing corporations more cash will produce more capital spending.

And this is exactly why I got annoyed with Tyler Cowen and his simplistic loanable funds theory. A higher demand for money doesn’t translate into investments, Robin Carusoe parables notwithstanding. And given it would be desirable to have a higher natural rate, corporations holding large monetary balances doesn't help matters.

 

Speaking of my Keynesian freak flag. The disaster created by not dealing with financial crises appropriately.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/12/great-recession-still-with-us/547268/

Quote

A decade after it started, the Great Recession has faded into memory. Corporate earnings and the stock market have fully recovered, with the financial sector thriving. The labor market has fully recovered, with middle-class earnings growing and the economy flirting with full employment. The government, at the state, local, and federal levels, has recovered too, and the economy is growing close to what economists think of as the fastest sustainable pace.

Yet, 10 years after the economy tipped into the deepest contraction of the post–World War II era, the Great Recession’s scars remain, as seen in academic studies and government figures, as well as the testimony of regional business experts and the families that lived through it. The country has rebounded in many ways, but is also more unequal, less vibrant, less productive, poorer, and sicker than it would have been had the crisis been less severe. And the extent of the scarring holds lessons for the politicians and policymakers who will confront the next recession, whenever it hits and however it starts.

 

[Sivin]

3 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Yea, see these tweets. It's a sweetheart deal.

 

Yeah, that seems like a pretty great deal... if Mueller did his buddy a favor by letting him off the hook in exchange for scraps of inconclusive hearsay I'm gonna... well, I will post at length on the issue! 

1 minute ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

To be fair it's 515 pages long pre amendment.  And btw, there are all kinds of things in there that do not do what they think they do......

Fucking libtard! What are they supposed to do? Ask someone what's in the bill!?! So naive.

[Fez]

24 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

 

• I believe what this is saying is that these interests will get the deduction for passthrough income, even though other financial services firms will not

That's the part that's getting me. How would that be different from a provision just exempting all Trump-owned properties from any tax liability at all?

[Frog Eater]

11 minutes ago, Mexal said:

This is the problem with no one actually reading the fucking bill before voting on it. No one knows what is actually in it.

 

That tidbit was added for Murkowski's vote. 

I have a bigger problem with drilling in the Arctic Wildlife Refuge than I do the tax bill

There will be an oil spill. There just will. And it will be catastrophic to the refuge 

[OldGimletEye]

In which I have to say I'm doubtful. Republicans always seem to manage to fuck up but then come out on top.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/1/16725506/republicans-may-regret-tax-bill

Quote

Josh Barro has an interesting piece laying out in words a thesis that so far I've only heard in whispers and tweets: In some ways, Democrats might be better off if the GOP tax bill passes.

 

[Sivin]

1 minute ago, OldGimletEye said:

I too am a Keynesian. And I will let my Keynesian freak flag fly high.

And if that offends your conservative values, then my suggestion would be for you to go pound sand, you RBC believen’ conservative cretin.

http://www.foxandhoundsdaily.com/2017/11/tax-bill-increase-deficit-lead-recession/

 

Its been known for a while that Milton Friedman’s permanent income hypothesis doesn’t hold up empirically very well.

No what is really incoherent is the Walrasian model of general equlibrium upon which the RBC model is founded upon. The reason I gripe about this a lot is because the Walrasian model gets taught in every advanced micro course and reams of economic students end up believing it. It’s useless in the real world. And it should be relegated as an intellectual curiosity, rather than something that actually happens. Now there are some monetarist types that make some fairly decent arguments that you can stimulate aggregate demand through monetary policy only and you don’t need any of that fiscal stuff. But, the credible ones don’t argue that fiscal policy doesn’t work, particularly if the interest rate is held steady.

And when you pair Walrasian market clearing with Rational Expectations, you’ve committed a very, very deadly sin.

Right, and this gets back to whether income or subsitution effects dominate if there are corporate tax cuts. If corporate tax cuts happen, then shareholders may want some of the extra cash because they know their income will be higher. Personally from what I know the substitution effects are not strong enough to where an new equilibrium level obtains rapidly.

And this is exactly why I got annoyed with Tyler Cowen and his simplistic loanable funds theory. A higher demand for money doesn’t translate into investments, Robin Carusoe parables notwithstanding. And given it would be desirable to have a higher natural rate, corporations holding large monetary balances doesn't help matters.

 

Speaking of my Keynesian freak flag. The disaster created by not dealing with financial crises appropriately.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/12/great-recession-still-with-us/547268/

 

Keynes thought that the Anglo-Franco-German-Austrian-Serbian-Russian conflict would end in short order when the financial liquidity of the Great Powers evaporated months into any potential outbreak of hostilities. 

Therefore everything he has ever said or done or thought before or after is invalid and the tax cuts will save AMERICA! 

#Republican

[Bonnot OG]

Republicans really are a bunch of disgusting sacks of shit. It's a shame more of them aren't dying of brain cancer like McCain is.

[Sivin]

1 minute ago, Sword of Doom said:

Republicans really are a bunch of disgusting sacks of shit. It's a shame more of them aren't dying of brain cancer like McCain is.

I was just saying that, minutes before I hit the refresh button!