US Politics: What's a couple hundred billion between friends?

[Mlle. Zabzie]

8 minutes ago, Fez said:

That's the part that's getting me. How would that be different from a provision just exempting all Trump-owned properties from any tax liability at all?

Well, it's actually not clear that it does what it is intended to do (meaning, the description doesn't seem to actually do what I think it needs to do to give the Schwartzmans of the world their deduction, but since they probably signed off on the legislative language proposed by the lobbyist, it probably does).  But that aside, it applies to anyone who has this structure.  It applies to anyone in this space, which potentially includes so-called Master Limited Partnerships or MLPs in the resources/commodities area.

7 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

In which I have to say I'm doubtful. Republicans always seem to manage to fuck up but then come out on top.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/1/16725506/republicans-may-regret-tax-bill

 

Well, hang on, that's not entirely fair.  Taking the longer view both parties have flip flopped on top. And both f*ck up.  The problem is taking the longer view we are all dead, to paraphrase.

[OldGimletEye]

Comeys reaction to Flynn:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/1/16725184/james-comey-response-flynns-indictment

Quote

Former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI, including about his conversations with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. He is reportedly now cooperating with special counsel Robert Mueller and his team on their investigation into possible ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.

There are many ways to process this news. Some might celebrate. Some might try to temper such celebration as premature. Some might point out the irony of those “lock her up” chants.

And some — such as former FBI Director James Comey — might Instagram a scenic picture of a stream and caption it with a not-so-subtle Bible verse:

 

[Darth Richard II]

21 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

To be fair it's 515 pages long pre amendment.  And btw, there are all kinds of things in there that do not do what they think they do......

Plus some of them probably can't read.

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Well, hang on, that's not entirely fair.  Taking the longer view both parties have flip flopped on top. And both f*ck up.  The problem is taking the longer view we are all dead, to paraphrase.

Yes, you are right, in the long run we are all dead, so that is a bit of problem.

And it would seem to me that one party has been fuckin' up a lot more as of late and has yet to pay the price and in fact is holding more power than it probably has since the 1920s.

[Sivin]

2 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said:

Plus some of them probably can't read.

There's no call for making fun of illiteracy. Even though it's more like: 

Plus none of them don't do no readin' no gudz. 

[Mudguard]

Maybe Russia tipped off, or worse, collaborated with Trump on the release of the hacked emails.  The timing of some of Trumps announcements regarding email revelations by the Russians through wikileaks was very suspicious, but there wasn't any solid evidence that Trump knew in advance.  Maybe Flynn can confirm that Trump was collaborating with Russia on the release of the emails.  I think that would be enough to sink Trump.  They better have good security protecting Flynn.  If Flynn really does know enough to sink Trump by proving collaboration with Russia, he could be in serious danger from Putin.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 minute ago, OldGimletEye said:

Yes, you are right, in the long run we are all dead, so that is a bit of problem.

And it would seem to me that one party has been fuckin' up a lot more as of late and has yet to pay the price and in fact is holding more power than it probably has since the 1920s.

Which they lost spectacularly and painfully for the country for two generations (or maybe three?).  And then the Democrats succumbed to hubris, and were summarily booted, and it's been a generation, so I'll give it another or so before it flips.

[DMC]

30 minutes ago, Mexal said:

This is the problem with no one actually reading the fucking bill before voting on it. No one knows what is actually in it.

As @Frog Eater said, this was the logroll to get Murkowski and has been reported for weeks. Harris' description is exaggerating, to put it nicely.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Say it ain't so, Kush:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/01/politics/jared-kushner-michael-flynn-russia/index.html

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Which they lost spectacularly and painfully for the country for two generations (or maybe three?).  And then the Democrats succumbed to hubris, and were summarily booted, and it's been a generation, so I'll give it another or so before it flips.

Well you are right about this of course historically speaking, though I'm really sure about the Democrats succumbing to hubris part. It's more like the New Deal coalition came flying apart for various reasons.

And seriously can we really afford to wait another generation or two before this nonsense ends? I would hope that it would before I spend most of my time popping Geritol and watching re runs of Matlock.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

26 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

In which I have to say I'm doubtful. Republicans always seem to manage to fuck up but then come out on top.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/1/16725506/republicans-may-regret-tax-bill

 

He’s not entirely wrong. Tax cuts are a marginal issue for Trump supporters, so it won’t motivate them much to go out in vote in 2018. However it might cause them to stay home if their taxes go up. And non-Trump supporters will be more motivated to go out and vote if their taxes go up.

[Paladin of Ice]

48 minutes ago, Mexal said:

The section of the plea agreement that spells out the cooperation. He has to fully cooperate with Mueller, federal, state and local authorities, testify in front of Grand Juries, turn over all evidence of any crimes he's aware of and answer any/all questions without the presence of a lawyer. 

Hoooly shit. They must have had Flynn completely over a barrel with stuff implicating him in order to get him and his legal team to agree to that. Especially speaking without a lawyer present, that's walking blindfolded through a minefield.

This is going to be interesting as hell when all the backroom and behind the scenes information comes out.

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, Paladin of Ice said:

Hoooly shit. They must have had Flynn completely over a barrel with stuff implicating him in order to get him and his legal team to agree to that. Especially speaking without a lawyer present, that's walking blindfolded through a minefield.

This is going to be interesting as hell when all the backroom and behind the scenes information comes out.

I'm pretty sure it was his son, who was almost certainly going to be charged with conspiracy to commit kidnapping for Turkey. I suspect Flynn would have bitten the bullet for Trump if it was just him, but not for his son. 

[denstorebog]

Corker is a no on the bill. Still, that's too little, too late. Everyone else has weighed in in favor of a yes at this point, so it would have to be some last-minute changes of heart or some controversial last-minute additions to the bill,

[SpaceChampion]

A good thread from Seth Abramson here:

 

[Kalbear]

Just now, SpaceChampion said:

A good thread from Seth Abramson here:

 

Seth Abramson continues to be a good bullshit artist, and take his proclamations with basically no actual credit. If he says something there's a much better chance that it's not remotely close to true.

[Sivin]

Blumenthal (D, on the Senate Judiciary committee) is on CNN saying this is the la reveal magnifico for the Trump presidency.

So I would suggest putting the corks back into the bottles, everyone. The Democrats are on the case! And we all know how that ends. 

 http://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/171110103001-01-trump-putin-handshake-apec-1110-exlarge-169.jpg

[denstorebog]

23 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

A good thread from Seth Abramson here:

 

Yeah, what Kalbear said. Seth Abramson is Louise Mensch, but with more convincing jargon. Don't buy into it.

EDIT: That being said, this doesn't seem to be one of his whackjob predictions that turn out to be false down the line, more of an optimistic reading of stuff that everyone else has concluded based on today's events.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

TO the last bit, it appears we're already back to the Dubya levels of approval abroad. I guess Trump gets credit for doing it faster than Bush?:

http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/26/u-s-image-suffers-as-publics-around-world-question-trumps-leadership/

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 hour ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I can sort of explain.

• In general, partnerships do not pay tax on their income, their investors pay tax on a pass through basis.
• There is, in general, an exception for so-called "publicly traded" partnerships, which are taxable as corporations.
• There is, of course, an exception to the exception - certain publicly traded partnerships in favored industries (including oil and gas, other resources, and, in fact, passive investment type companies) can continue to achieve flow through treatment.
• Several extremely large private equity funds including Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle and Silverlake, took a portion of their businesses public in the last 10 years.  What they basically did was to give public investors an interest in their management companies.  The funds remain in flow through form underneath.
• I believe what this is saying is that these interests will get the deduction for passthrough income, even though other financial services firms will not.
• ETA - this was the subject of an intense lobbying effort by those specific funds. So, you know, you get what you can pay for.
• Also, Claire McCaskill is saying that she is getting the amendments from lobbyists, not her colleagues (par for the course).  They are basically treating the Democrats as irrelevant to the process because they are.

So, I've actually read the legislative text.  This provision has nothing to do with private equity.  It has to do with oil/gas/natural resources MLPs.  Basically the passthrough deduction is limited to 50% of wages paid.  PTPs in that space don't pay wages to anyone, and have lots of ordinary income.  This gets the investors the deduction.