Fragile Bird

US Politics: Russian Roulette Republican Style

421 posts in this topic

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/06/tax-plan-glitches-mistakes-republicans-208049

'Holy crap': Experts find tax plan riddled with glitches
Some of the provisions could be easily gamed, tax lawyers say.

Gottheimer and Lance make last-ditch effort to save SALT deduction

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/12/05/gottheimer-and-lance-make-last-ditch-effort-to-save-salt-deduction-133711

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23 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

What does that mean in terms of gay weddings? If a gay couple wants to get married in a place of worship which is owned by a religious organisation that opposes gay marriage, is it illegal to refuse to let the couple use that place of worship for the wedding ceremony? I guess this is a private property thing, and I suppose you can deny entry onto private property for any reason, or even no reason, and the law can't say otherwise. The organisation could deny a black couple, or white couple access I suppose.

I’m not a lawyer, but I did stay at a Holiday Express Inn last night.

Anyway, I don’t think the public/private distinction is dis-positive here of a case like this, unless were talking about a federal law, which would implicate the commerce clause, then the distinction might be important.

But, as far as I know, states are held to have general police powers and can regulate private property without restraint, unless there is some 5th Amendment takings thingy.

I think the main issue here would be about 1st Amendment concerns and not really the public/private property distinction. And further the issue would be about “compelled speech” - if the government requires a private party to do an act is the party being forced to make statements it does not agree with. And, I’m inclined to think, this type of argument shouldn’t be allowed to run too far and wide as it seems to me it could gut all types of civil rights laws and other laws. And I think conservatives might want to be careful here as perhaps the same rationale could be used to gut laws they favor.

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6 hours ago, dmc515 said:

So while @Fez noted earlier today that Trump hadn't technically done anything about the embassy move to Jerusalem, it's now being widely reported that Trump will indeed officially recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel tomorrow.  Also, it's the main story on HuffPo right now and they totally took my description of this as a "Powder Keg."  Buncha pinko thieves.

Yeah, it's bad.

4 hours ago, dmc515 said:

This will probably all be worked out, but leave it to the House Freedom Caucus to remind us that the GOP isn't really a governing majority.

On a related note, I've now seen that it's being estimated that the senate tax bill's corporate AMT provisions are going to cause businesses to lose $300 billion in deductions, not $40 billion as first estimated. Which almost certainly kills any chance of the House just passing the Senate bill. There will be a conference and the Senate will have to vote again, meaning those assurances to Collins are looming large.

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On 12/5/2017 at 11:07 PM, Altherion said:

There are very few revolts that succeed without having at least part of the well-off on their side. For example, Saint-Just was of the minor nobility and Trotsky was the son of a wealthy (though not noble) landowner. That said, the election of Trump wasn't the revolt -- at best, it was a warning.

Yes, I can see it now, the peasants storming the Bastille led by Stephen Moore and Larry Kudlow.

Now, I know certain sorts of people believed that Trump was going to be a hero of the proletariat. I’d hope though that certain sorts of people would have figured out by now (though really they should have gotten the hint before he got elected) that Trump wasn’t the hero of the working class they were looking for.

If the peasants can’t figure out who is acting in their interest, then they are going to be truly screwed. And I’d hope they wouldn’t just play dice and say to themselves,”let’s just roll em’ and see what happens cause cause anything could happen!”, particuarly when there is a lot of downside risk and little upside gain.

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Tax Reform to Own the Libs
The GOP’s overhaul of the tax system reveals one of the party’s top political priorities: punishing Democrats.

https://newrepublic.com/article/146123/tax-reform-libs

Trump Has Privately Decided the Sexual-Assault Allegations Against Roy Moore Are Bunk
‘This is not something he’s struggling with,’ one senior White House official told The Daily Beast of Trump.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-has-privately-decided-the-sexual-assault-allegations-against-roy-moore-are-bunk

Edited by Martell Spy

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23 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

Tax Reform to Own the Libs
The GOP’s overhaul of the tax system reveals one of the party’s top political priorities: punishing Democrats.

https://newrepublic.com/article/146123/tax-reform-libs

And lets hope the Democratic Party remembers that old Klingon proverb that "revenge is a dish best served cold."

And, if the Democratic Party ever gets the chance to reverse this nonsense, let's hope the Republican donor base squeal like a bunch a fucking stuck pigs.

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23 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

Trump Has Privately Decided the Sexual-Assault Allegations Against Roy Moore Are Bunk
‘This is not something he’s struggling with,’ one senior White House official told The Daily Beast of Trump.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-has-privately-decided-the-sexual-assault-allegations-against-roy-moore-are-bunk

Opinions differ on the shape of the earth.

Teach the controversy.

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17 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Trump Has Privately Decided the Sexual-Assault Allegations Against Roy Moore Are Bunk
‘This is not something he’s struggling with,’ one senior White House official told The Daily Beast of Trump.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-has-privately-decided-the-sexual-assault-allegations-against-roy-moore-are-bunk

Trump's advice to Moore "Forget this dating and yearbook signing stuff.  Just go straight to grabbing them by the pussy.  Always worked for me!"

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13 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

Trump's advice to Moore "Forget this dating and yearbook signing stuff.  Just go straight to grabbing them by the pussy.  Always worked for me!"

Yeah, Trump would never be caught cruising a mall. He's way too classy for that.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/12/06/trump-europe-russia-travel-281134

Investigators probe European travel of Trump associates
Questions linger about 2016 trips by Donald Trump Jr., Carter Page, Michael Cohen and other Trump associates.

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Great News! The Republican Party has solved our long term fiscal issues. No need to talk about any cuts to social security or medicare.
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/12/thanks-to-republicans-we-no-longer-have-to-worry-about-the-national-debt/#

Quote

So everything is hunky-dory? Not quite. The Congressional Budget Office says that the good times are over. Over the next three decades, interest expenses will skyrocket:

 

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Yikes! It looks like we’re in big trouble.

Or are we? Republicans just passed a tax bill that they say will increase economic growth to 3 percent per year. Maybe more, in fact. But that means more tax revenue, lower interest rates, and higher GDP. I don’t have one of those rocket science financial models to tell me what that means, so I had to take an educated guess about how a higher growth rate would affect federal revenues, federal spending, the annual deficit, the national debt, and the interest payments needed to service it. Here it is:

 

Quote

There is a point behind this joke: Republicans can’t have it both ways. If they say their policies will produce 3 percent growth, then they also have to accept what that means for spending and debt. They can’t claim 3 percent growth when they’re pretending that their tax cut will pay for itself, but then turn around and use CBO’s growth rates when they want to raise the alarm about entitlement spending bankrupting us. It’s one or the other.

 

Okay, I know Drum did some crude modeling here. But, seriously, I think it would be interesting to see a CBO analysis using the Republican Party’s rosy assumptions about the effects of their tax cuts and policies.

Republican Party.

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

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2 hours ago, OldGimletEye said:

I'm not saying he didn't come up with his own original ideas. But his theory of value basically came from Ricardo.

Sorry--I just love talking, writing, thinking about Marx. :P

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23 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

Okay, I know Drum did some crude modeling here. But, seriously, I think it would be interesting to see a CBO analysis using the Republican Party’s rosy assumptions about the effects of their tax cuts and policies.

Republican Party.

:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Every time I hear the 'THREE PERCENT GROWTH, GUARANTEED!" spewed by some GOP hack I have to laff my ass off as it's so delusional as to be ridiculous..  

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A well I bless my soul
What’s wrong with me?
I’m a Republican confused about when to do austerity
My friends say I’m as dumb as a bug
But I want tax cuts
I’m all mixed up
Mm, mm oh, oh, yeah, yeah!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2017/12/06/tax-cuts-may-leave-washington-low-on-ammo-for-next-recession-battle/

Quote

President Trump predicts that the $1.5 trillion Republican tax cut nearing final congressional approval will jolt the U.S. economy into “high gear.”

He may be right. But despite the sunny outlook, the nine-year-old economic expansion, already the third-longest since 1854, will eventually end. And when the inevitable recession arrives, the United States may find it harder to fight than previous downturns — especially if it is severe.

 

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“The idea that because of the tax bill we won’t be able to cut taxes or increase spending during a recession is incorrect,” says economist Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute.

I actually agree with this. If you’re in a recession, and particularly if looks like the FED will hold down the Fed Rate for awhile, you likely aren’t doing yourself any favors as far as long term fiscal sustainability is concerned if you try to do austerity.

But, over the longer term, these tax cuts will end up being a drag on growth and bad for long term fiscal sustainability. And the distributional consequences are terrible.

Quote

Even those actions weren’t enough. The Fed ultimately began buying $4.5 trillion in mortgage-backed debt and U.S. Treasury securities in an unconventional effort to spur growth known as “quantitative easing.”

At this time I’d invite conservative sorts of people to admit that their inflation predictions were wrong. At this time I’d invite conservative sorts of people to admit that the demand for real balances are interest sensitive. At this time, I’d invite conservative sorts of people to admit that should have read Krugman’s 1998 liquidity trap paper.

Interestingly enough, many of the conservative sorts of people that were wrong about this stuff have recently made some mighty shady claims about the Republican tax cut.

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17 hours ago, Relic said:

Looking at the world as it is today, would you make the choice to have kids? 

Definitely. The children are our future, without them, there wouldn't be any hope.

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Quote

House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes is moving quickly to file a contempt resolution against top Trump administration officials for refusing to turn over documents related to the infamous Trump-Russia dossier.

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/363488-house-intel-chairman-planning-contempt-resolution-against-fbi-doj-officials

Not really a big deal, I'm just continually surprised by these developments. It's getting too fucking complicated to work out who's on whose side. Can't we just have a regular good vs. evil instead of this insane free-for-all?

Edited by denstorebog

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A Very Scary Number for Republicans

Quote
Just 37% of people identify as Republicans or leaning toward the Republican Party, compared with 44% who identify as either leaning toward the Democratic Party or as solid Democrats. Another 14% say they are independents and don't lean to either party.
 
What's particularly worrisome for Republicans is the trend line on the party ID question since President Donald Trump was elected in November 2016. At that point, 44% called themselves Democrats while 42% said they were Republicans. It's been all downhill for Republicans since then.
 
How do these numbers compare to the composition of past electorates, according to exit polls? In 2016, Democrats composed 36% of the electorate, as compared to 33% for Republicans and 31% for independents. In 2014, it was 36% Republican, 35% Democratic and 28% independent. In 2012, Democrats made up 38% of the electorate while Republicans were 32% and independents were 29%. In 2010, Republicans and Democrats each were 35% of voters while independents were 29%. And in 2008, it was Democrats -- 39%, Republicans -- 32%, independents -- 29%.
 
The connection is relatively clear. If Republicans are even with, or close to even with, Democrats in terms of party ID, they win elections -- like in 2016, 2014 and 2010. If the Democratic edge is mid-single digits or higher, Republicans usually lose.

 

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Megan Kelly has been floundering on NBC, and I am left wondering if the network misunderstood what it was acquiring.

She has no liberal fans, her work at Fox will forever taint her.

She has no Republican fans, they didn't care she was at Fox. They'd take their political instructions from a sock puppet, and probably remember her more for being an object of the Dear Leader's ire than a referable source.

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I've stopped taking positive notes from demographic trends. The Republicans are hell-bent on erasing all the demographic advantages that Democrats possess, and they are largely succeeding, and each success saps the electorate's ability to resist.

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2 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Megan Kelly has been floundering on NBC, and I am left wondering if the network misunderstood what it was acquiring.

She has no liberal fans, her work at Fox will forever taint her.

She has no Republican fans, they didn't care she was at Fox. They'd take their political instructions from a sock puppet, and probably remember her more for being an object of the Dear Leader's ire than a referable source.

They overestimated her appeal to non-Foxbots or at least underestimated how tainted she was by her previous career. She might have overestimated her ability to approximate human warmth.

Either way, having Megyn Kelly fall flat on her smug face and endure small humiliations from her guests was one of the things I asked for from Benevolent White Santa.

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