R+L=J v.40

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

R+L=J v.40

^can't seem to add that & have it in the bottom! :bang: :tantrum:

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[Jon Icefyre]

If Ashara informed Ned about Lyanna's location, she would think that Arthur's death is her fault. Daynes shouldn't blame Ned, in opposite way they would appreciate that he brought Moning Star to Starfall. He is not obligated to do it because he won the sword in the battle.

If she thinks Arthur's death is her fault that would explain her reasoning behind a suicide.

[Ser Creighton]

I think his point was that while your theory might not have gone against facts, it isn't supported by any, either. So if we are both arguing from a position of not having any real facts, it's just destiny that our discussion won't be fruitful. We'll go round and round in circles forever, spinning more and more speculation, because if neither side is armed with facts, no one will ever accept that the other side's argument is conclusive.

We've all been guilty of this to some degree, I think. But it is best to build our cases around what is certain -- or at least around what is very likely, given the facts.

What theory? I asked about some possible match ups on 39 so I could get caught up on the thread which I was new to. Not to mention if a person does not like a theory, don't read it. Nobody is making anyone read anything. The only theories I have really gotten into are timeline related events, and maping the distance to support timelines.

What are you trying to figure out if you are not trying to figure out how LS and RT are JS parents? That's the name of thread. I am just trying to make sense out it. If I go strictly by the book, then everyone went retarded in the books and nothing makes sense. That would be the literal translation the everything starting at the abduction. I am just trying to prove they are his parents. If you figured it out why is this version 40?

If you don't want people to post there ideas about it, then either don't read them, don't look at the thread or end the thread. You may have gone over this a hundred times, I just finished the books. I don't even use forums. You're the first people I have ever spoken to about these books, nobody I know reads this stuff. I have not been here five years going over this stuff like some people. By the way progess seems a little stunted.

You seem nice enough but you really should not be telliing me what to focus on or how to post. Their are few substantiated facts here, the whole thread is based off speculation. "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable must be the truth." That's all I am doing. Does that quote sound familer. Just because you think an idea may be out there does not mean it didn't happen or it's wrong.

A lot of the stuff I use is anecdotal evidence, while not a strong form of evidence it's better than assumption. It's just my observations of that world. What you are calling an assumption I am calling a working hypothesis. If it differs from what you believe I am sorry but I have just as much right to my opinion. It's version 40 man, clearly there are still some questions.

[Roza Ahai]

If she thinks Arthur's death is her fault that would explain her reasoning behind a suicide.

A combination of reasons: her fault of Arthur's death, loss of her child and maybe betrayal and death of child's father (if the father is Brandon).

Arya heard that Ashara have died because someone killed her brother, and she thought that this is stupid, she'd rather kill that someone. GRRM just almost directly says whose fault is Arthur's death. It is not Ned, he only defended himself and his companions. Ashara would think it is her fault.

[Techelles]

It is my belief that the most likely candidate for revealing to Ned Lyanna's location is Ashara Dayne

If the source is someone that we've actually heard of and not some random southerner(s), I agree that Ashara is the most likely candidate. I have been starting to think more and more, though, that Ned did not actually visit Starfall in person before arriving at the ToJ.

If he was already in contact with Ashara via raven from Storm's End and she told him about the ToJ, it could help explain why Ned didn't travel in force. This would be doubly true if she told him that Lyanna was pregnant; in that case, taking only a select few whom he knew he could trust absolutely would be the obvious thing to do (because, of course, he would have known from the minute he heard about it that Robert would want the child dead). I don't think it's entirely necessary that Ashara knew about the baby, mind you. It just adds a little additional oomph.

Now, from a military perspective, his apparent lack of concern with running into a superior force is slightly mystifying to me. I know the war was all but over save for on Dragonstone, but if I were in Ned's place -- that is, if I were at Storm's End preparing to embark on a little expedition south without having any solid information about what to expect -- I would have taken more men. But the small size of his party seems to suggest that he knew just where he was going and just what to expect when he got there. And of course if the ravens were flying, he would have known the exact number and identity of the men holding his sister. So he outfitted his expedition accordingly.

He might also have been informed that Dorne had no forces deployed in the vicinity. As far as I know, Ned would not, on his own, have had any certain knowledge of the extent to which Dorne's military had been exhausted in the battles up north. (If Dorne had already bent the knee to Robert in KL, I can't find any evidence. Anyone?) Also, he may have secured Starfall's assurance that no forces would be sent out to oppose him. There are a few reasons why Starfall/Ashara might have agreed to cooperate:

1) There's the possibility of a romantic connection between Ned and Ashara.

2) Ned could probably have made a convincing case that the war was over and resistance futile.

3) He could have openly threatened to invade Dorne with the army at Storm's End.

So how about it? Did Ned actually ride to Starfall before the ToJ?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

<snip>

As someone who believes Ashara tipped Ned off, I don't think he visited Starfall first. I just figured that they were using ravens or extremely trusted riders to convey information. Ashara herself may even had gone to meet Ned to speak with him in person. I think Ned knew exactly what was there and that's why he brought so few men — only the ones he absolutely knew he could trust. While he had a numerical advantage, given who they were fighting, it absolutely wasn't a guarantee that Ned's men would win (and they almost didn't). I think it was worth the very real risk of losing to Ned in order to keep the secret. It's also possible that Ned went to the Tower under the assumption that the Kingsguard would give Jon (and Lyanna) up; Ashara might have thought so too and it just worked out that they were still taking their oaths more seriously than anticipated. However it came to be, I do not doubt that:

1. Someone told Ned explicitly where to find Lyanna and that she had given birth.

2. Ned knew exactly what he would find at the Tower and his dialogue with the Kingsguard is to confirm it.

3. The Kingsguard in turn knew that Ned was coming.

[Ser Creighton]

I also think Ashara makes the most sense for who would have told him. And I think he had to be told by someone &mdash; he goes from not knowing where Lyanna is to knowing precisely where she is. The "he followed Gerold Hightower" thing doesn't quite fit for me, given that Hightower would've probably gone there long before Ned would've been in a position to follow him. Ashara is plausible as someone who both would probably have known about the Tower and who was there, and as someone who, from what we know, was at least congenial with Ned. I'm guessing that at that time she knew the Targaryen cause was lost but thought Ned at least deserved to know where to find his sister. On the other end of the spectrum, I also think she told Dayne and the other Kingsguard that Ned was coming &mdash; notice how neither party seems terribly surprised to see the other.

I prefer your other end of the spectrum, if Ned was going to get his sister against a unknown force he would have taken more men. But how would Ashara contact Ned? The War was going all over the map, Ned was not at the Red Keep Long enough for her to send a Raven, and he was not at Storms End long enough to get a Raven. She would not even know when he got to either place. She would not find out for several days at best where Ned was and by then he would be gone. She was in Starfall, even with Ravens she did not have the time to get him a letter. Ned was mobile after the Trident Ravens fly to places, they would not be able to locate Ned while mobile in the field. RT could of told Ned at the Trident, RT did not die right away, maybe he told Ned where she was before he died. Ned would of asked, a caved in chest is not instant death.

Oh wait sorry that's speculation. Ummm Ned just new to go to the tower.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I prefer your other end of the spectrum, if Ned was going to get his sister against a unknown force he would have taken more men.

But it wasn't an "unknown force." It was three Kingsguard and Ned knew that's who would be there. And we've explained why Ned wouldn't take an entire army — he knew what he'd find and the fewer people who knew, the better. As for Ashara:

As to your speculations about Catelyn and Ashara Dayne... sigh... needless to say, All Will Be Revealed in Good Time. I will give you this much, however; Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own).

From GRRM.

[Roza Ahai]

Rhaegar would never risk his child's life and say his location to anybody, especially to Robert's friend.

[Techelles]

What theory? I asked about some possible match ups on 39 so I could get caught up on the thread which I was new to. Not to mention if a person does not like a theory, don't read it. Nobody is making anyone read anything. The only theories I have really gotten into are timeline related events, and maping the distance to support timelines.

What are you trying to figure out if you are not trying to figure out how LS and RT are JS parents? That's the name of thread. I am just trying to make sense out it. If I go strictly by the book, then everyone went retarded in the books and nothing makes sense. That would be the literal translation the everything starting at the abduction. I am just trying to prove they are his parents. If you figured it out why is this version 40?

If you don't want people to post there ideas about it, then either don't read them, don't look at the thread or end the thread. You may have gone over this a hundred times, I just finished the books. I don't even use forums. You're the first people I have ever spoken to about these books, nobody I know reads this stuff. I have not been here five years going over this stuff like some people. By the way progess seems a little stunted.

You seem nice enough but you really should not be telliing me what to focus on or how to post. Their are few substantiated facts here, the whole thread is based off speculation. "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable must be the truth." That's all I am doing. Does that quote sound familer. Just because you think an idea may be out there does not mean it didn't happen or it's wrong.

A lot of the stuff I use is anecdotal evidence, while not a strong form of evidence it's better than assumption. It's just my observations of that world. What you are calling an assumption I am calling a working hypothesis. If it differs from what you believe I am sorry but I have just as much right to my opinion. It's version 40 man, clearly there are still some questions.

Not trying to be insulting, not trying to tell you what to do. By all means, post whatever you like. I'll probably read it anyway. Just suggesting some parameters for the discussion, because I think it makes things more productive. You might also find that they can result in more satisfactory replies. The more grounded in fact your arguments, the more willing people will be to seriously engage them.

I just finished the books for the first time a couple months ago, and I, too, haven't discussed them with anyone outside the forum. I was glad to find this place; glad you found it, too. It's loads of fun.

Incidentally, the theory I was referring to is post 17 of this thread.

[SFDanny]

No. He returns Dawn to the Daynes after the battle at the tower. That much is known for sure. So is the idea that Ned would ride all the way from Storm's End to Starfall then onto the Tower and then back to Starfall? I'm assuming this is so he can meet with Ashara and get the location of Lyanna, right?

Martin has made it clear that Ashara was not "nailed down" in Starfall, so my conjecture has always been Ned finds out at Storm's End from either Ashara or someone else who knows the location who is among the besieging forces. Ashara seems the likely candidate both because her brother is at the tower and because of her reaction following Ser Arthur's death. She can be at Storm's End for a variety of reasons but as part of a diplomatic envoy to the Tyrells seems the most likely.

Oh, and no, the Dornish had not yet bent the knee to Robert. Remember that the Red Viper, according to Tywin, is trying to stir up resistance until Jon Arryn arrives in Sunspear to effect a truce

[Techelles]

As someone who believes Ashara tipped Ned off, I don't think he visited Starfall first. I just figured that they were using ravens or extremely trusted riders to convey information. Ashara herself may even had gone to meet Ned to speak with him in person. I think Ned knew exactly what was there and that's why he brought so few men — only the ones he absolutely knew he could trust. While he had a numerical advantage, given who they were fighting, it absolutely wasn't a guarantee that Ned's men would win (and they almost didn't). I think it was worth the very real risk of losing to Ned in order to keep the secret. It's also possible that Ned went to the Tower under the assumption that the Kingsguard would give Jon (and Lyanna) up; Ashara might have thought so too and it just worked out that they were still taking their oaths more seriously than anticipated. However it came to be, I do not doubt that:

1. Someone told Ned explicitly where to find Lyanna and that she had given birth.

2. Ned knew exactly what he would find at the Tower and his dialogue with the Kingsguard is to confirm it.

3. The Kingsguard in turn knew that Ned was coming.

Good points, glad you agree. In v. 39 I ran into several theories that insisted that Ned went to Starfall first, then brought Wylla back to the ToJ, etc. So I just wanted to hear what some others thought...get a sense of how grounded my own ideas were.

From GRRM.

Aha.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I think it's worth noting that a big reason that we're on v.40 of this thread is that there are always new people coming on here with questions. Nothing wrong with that, but they're not particularly new questions. That is to say, it's not quite accurate to say that "clearly there are still some questions" when a huge percentage of this thread, in all of its variations, is devoted to answering the same questions that just happened to be posed at different times by different people. You can look at versions 10, 20 and 30, and I guarantee that you'll see the same questions pop up ("But Jon burned himself"/"But Jon doesn't look like a Targaryen"/"Why can't it's be Wylla/Ashara/whoever").

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Good points, glad you agree. In v. 39 I ran into several theories that insisted that Ned went to Starfall first, then brought Wylla back to the ToJ, etc. So I just wanted to hear what some others thought...get a sense of how grounded my own ideas were.

Nah, I don't see anything suggested that the Starfall trip preceded the Tower of Joy trip.

[Techelles]

I prefer your other end of the spectrum, if Ned was going to get his sister against a unknown force he would have taken more men. But how would Ashara contact Ned? The War was going all over the map, Ned was not at the Red Keep Long enough for her to send a Raven, and he was not at Storms End long enough to get a Raven. She would not even know when he got to either place. She would not find out for several days at best where Ned was and by then he would be gone. She was in Starfall, even with Ravens she did not have the time to get him a letter. Ned was mobile after the Trident Ravens fly to places, they would not be able to locate Ned while mobile in the field. RT could of told Ned at the Trident, RT did not die right away, maybe he told Ned where she was before he died. Ned would of asked, a caved in chest is not instant death.

My thought was that Ned was the one to get in touch with Ashara via raven from Storm's End. We don't know exactly how long Ned stayed there, but a raven wouldn't have taken too long. Also, GRRM's quote that Apple Martini posted suggests that Ashara may have ridden out or sailed to meet Ned in person. A highborn Lady acting as an envoy could expect not to be attacked (think Catelyn Stark). Moreover, there wasn't much (if any) actual fighting in the lands between Starfall and Storm's End at that point. When Ned broke the siege, there wasn't even a battle. As for how she knew where to find him, well, she could have set out after Ned's raven reached her. Alternatively, Ned's army moving against Storm's End wasn't exactly a secret. Word of that would have spread very quickly. She could have just headed out on that knowledge alone. An army is hard to miss. I tend to think it was a raven, though, just because it's a fairly long journey.

Oh wait sorry that's speculation. Ummm Ned just new to go to the tower.

:)

[Jon Icefyre]

As someone who believes Ashara tipped Ned off, I don't think he visited Starfall first. I just figured that they were using ravens or extremely trusted riders to convey information. Ashara herself may even had gone to meet Ned to speak with him in person. I think Ned knew exactly what was there and that's why he brought so few men — only the ones he absolutely knew he could trust. While he had a numerical advantage, given who they were fighting, it absolutely wasn't a guarantee that Ned's men would win (and they almost didn't). I think it was worth the very real risk of losing to Ned in order to keep the secret. It's also possible that Ned went to the Tower under the assumption that the Kingsguard would give Jon (and Lyanna) up; Ashara might have thought so too and it just worked out that they were still taking their oaths more seriously than anticipated. However it came to be, I do not doubt that:

1. Someone told Ned explicitly where to find Lyanna and that she had given birth.

2. Ned knew exactly what he would find at the Tower and his dialogue with the Kingsguard is to confirm it.

3. The Kingsguard in turn knew that Ned was coming.

I was literally just about to post something identical to this well said once again I couldn't agree more. :agree:

[Ser Creighton]

But it wasn't an "unknown force." It was three Kingsguard and Ned knew that's who would be there. And we've explained why Ned wouldn't take an entire army &mdash; he knew what he'd find and the fewer people who knew, the better. As for Ashara:

From GRRM.

What? who said she was nailed to a floor? Ashera died at Starfall. I said she could not have sent Ned a Raven in enough time. From the books news travels slow. Ravens are trained to fly to castles, that's from the books. Ned was not at KL very long he would have had to send her a Raven cause she would not know he was even their yet. It would get to her in about 5-8 days then she would send one back to him at KL and that would take about the same time. Ned was not at KL that long. He got in a fight with Robert and took off shortly after he got there. Same goes for Storms End, he was not there long. So it was not a Raven. A raven migrates about 100-150 miles a day at best. Even in a game of Thrones we have heard them say things like it will take a Raven about two week to get there. It's a large continent.

I don't know if she rode to him, with the information, or sent a rider to find him. She could have sent an Envoy but again he is going to have a hard time getting to Ned because he is not going to know where he is at. Ashara would not know either, buy the time she would get word he would already be gone. Horse or Raven. If she is not at Starfall, then she managed to get word to Ned and get back to starfall before him. How? That's next to impossible to know. But she would have to be within a day or two of him.

She would have to be at KL when he got there to give him that intel. Then leave for Starfall while he went to Storms End. She could then tell Arthur he is coming.

Also the Tower seemed like more of a meeting place than a secret hidout sitting the middle of the Prince's pass. Maybe it was suppose to be an exchange but something went down. To much anger or hatred at the site of the guy who helped kill your best friend.

[Ser Leftwich]

Same goes for Storms End, he was not there long.

Same does not go for Storm's End. Robert is not there. Ned left KL because of the dispute over the dead Targ children. Ned staying in SE for a bit to get the place in order is very plausible. It also gives him a time and facilities to do the only thing he has left to do: look into finding his sister.

She would have to be at KL when he got there to give him that intel. Then leave for Starfall while he went to Storms End. She could then tell Arthur he is coming.

A debunking of Ashara being in KL. http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/49066-how-did-ned-find-out-where-lyanna-was/page__st__120#entry4042277

Ashara informing Ned makes the most sense, as a tragic story element. The logistics might take us a little time to figure out.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

<snip>

The idea is that GRRM is telling people that Ashara was potentially more mobile during that period than a lot of readers believe. The SSM I quoted seems to pretty clearly say that Ashara would have been able to be on the move at some point if she wanted to be. That he specifically mentions horses and boats might be taken as a clue as to how she could've gotten around.

[Ser Creighton]

One problem with Ashara not being at Starfall is she may have been pregnant, from the books. Although Selmy said it happened at the Tourney and that happened in 281. This is 283. So she killed herself about 2 years later over her stillborn and Arthur? That makes no sense, Arthur does, just not killing yourself over your baby a 2 years later. Either she was not pregnant. Or?

Could Lyanna somehow have been pretending to be her at Starfall while Ashara was at Kings landing with Elia Martell? While the Daynes would have known, some new staff solves the problem of Lyanna is, keep her isolated in a wing Wylla is her nurse. Bring her in at night with a Hood on, most of the regulars are off at war. The main family, Wylla and the Measter would have known but that's about it. That's pretty far fetched.

I still want to know why Martin put in there that her body was never recovered. how often has that happened in the books, people are getting bones sent here and there all the time. I always think she will make a surprise return. If Howland can stay away from everyone for that amount of time so can she damn it. Proabaly not.

Also Selmy says she sought Stark aid after her childs death. But again the timeline does not support this. If the laughing night story is true then it is early 281 winter is ending and spring is breaking when she gets preggy. She kills herself in late 283 almost 284. That's almost two years after she would have had the kid. When did she seek aid from the Starks? Doesn't add up.