Nevets

As a Lannister man (in Lorch's company), he could have heard that the Lannisters were searching for Arya Stark, the former Hand's daughter. He already has the other pieces he needs: she used the name Arry (very similar to Arya); she thought the goldcloaks were after her, not Gendry; she has a castle forged sword she insists is hers; and Yoren was willing to take her along, despite her age and sex, which he clearly knew about. Simple deduction, if he's observant and intelligent, which he clearly is. It's also possible, that as a fellow expat, he could have known Syrio in KL and heard about his new gig teaching the Hand's daughter. That would also give him the information he needed.

Getting put in the Black Cells and subsequently riding all the way from Kings Landing chained in a wagon is hardly a reliable or efficient method of joining the Nights Watch. If secret agent guy can't come up with a convincing story of running from a vengeful lord intent on his execution or something like that, or arrange to get arrested in White Harbor for rape, robbery, theft, what have you, then I have to question his effectiveness as a secret agent. Being able to tell a good story is practically the first requirement for being one. I suspect that whatever happened before he met Arya has no relevance for the story and we therefore won't find out why he was in the Black Cells.

We have no real idea of how big an organization the Faceless Men is. I don't think it is huge, with tentacles everywhere, nor do I think it has much presence in Westeros. Having someone in a position of power who can help them could be quite useful. And her training seems more aimed at being an undercover agent than being an assassin. What talent she has is really nothing special. Her martial training is limited; I think her sword skills are basic at best. She is fearless, resourceful, and can be ruthless, all of which is useful, though hardly rare. However, she lacks the sort of sociopathic personality that would likely be necessary to be successful as an assassin for hire. She cares too much and asks too many questions.

So what if it looks like a hit. If anybody gets blamed, it would be the Lannisters, which would suit Baelish just fine. He's been pitting the two families against one another for some time. And I still fall to see how being locked in a wagon helps. The Wall is at the end of the world. Nobody would be able to hear Ned if he did say anything. And he doesn't know about Lysa's letter being arranged by Baelish, or who gave the initial tip to Stannis.

@StarkTullies interesting stuff here. I tend to agree with much of it, although I didn't see the last four seasons, only read about them. A few quibbles and comments. Jon: I am one of those who think he's still alive, albeit seriously injured and comatose, like Bran was. I don't think he will have a chance to meet with Jeyne. Theon told her she needs to continue being Arya, so I think Martin is going to let that story line run for awhile. Anyway, Jeyne's story is more connected to Arya and Sansa than it is to Jon. Even if he dies and is resurrected, I don't see him leaving the NW through a loophole. It seems very out of character. In any event, as Lord Commander and Ned's son, he is in a good position to be the de facto leader of the North, with a figurehead monarch (probably another Stark). Sansa: I pretty much agree with your take on Sansa. I think she takes down Baelish, but I'm unsure of what the trigger will be. I expect Baelish's mistreatment of Jeyne Poole will play a role somehow. The marks on her back need to pay off somehow. Her marriage isn't getting annulled with a snap of the fingers. Martin has her married, sans sex, for a reason. It's probably to make any remarriage very difficult, albeit still possible. Arya: I think the Faceless Men will let her go, but with a price. I think they will require her to provide assistance for them in Westeros if they need it. As scion of a great family, she is in a good position for that. I'm skeptical they ever intended for her to be an assassin. She's not really suited for it (too much of a conscience, for one thing). I doubt she will kill many people on her list. It's getting awfully short. Gregor and Cersei will be killed by others, Dunsen hasn't been seen lately, and Meryn is a nobody. That leaves Ilyn Payne, who has gotten a character build up and is in the Riverlands, a logical destination for Arya. It could be a necessary wakeup call. She's gotten by on surprise and luck and that won't last forever. I can see Arya getting interested in sex and maybe targeting Gendry, but I see Gendry turning her down flat. A young noble girl? Forget it. If she browbeats anyone into bed with her, I see it being Podrick. He's eminently browbeatable. That's all for now.

If Jaqen was planning to kill Ned en route to the Wall, being locked in a wagon is not the way to go about it. Simply join up - they'll take anybody. Then either poison Ned and make it look natural, or stab him, slip away, and change faces. Or kill him secretly, hang around, and leave Yoren with a mystery. And why would Baelish care what Ned might say in the distant North, as opposed to everyone else on the scene, some of whom, like Barristan and the Hound, may not like him much.

I don't think he was interested in Arya because of her talent. He was probably more interested in her name. As a member of a great family she's in an excellent position to help them in Westeros. And as a child, she is easier to manipulate into doing so.

Even master criminals get caught from time to time. And given what we've seen in Arya's story in Braavos, I'm having doubts about the whole master criminal thing. Good, but hardly super men. If he has a mission at the Wall, there are easier and more reliable ways to get there than chained in a wagon. Like simply joining. It's not like they do background checks. They'll take anyone - literally. I suspect Martin put him into the story without worrying about how he got there. It was early, and he didn't have hordes of readers going through the story with a fine-tooth comb and sharing their theories with the whole world like he does now.

Without the ax, Jaqen would have died. I have no doubt about that. I also do not believe he was on any kind of mission. He simply got caught doing something. I think the three deaths thing is legit. He has no reason to be interested in Arya, certainly not at that point (I don't think he'd yet figured out who she was). And his reaction to Arya naming him was quite real. He basically shit a brick. I read a medieval fantasy once where manacles were hammered on and needed to be removed with a hammer and chisel. If that is the case, there would be no lock to pick. It also means no key to lose. I think we're in danger of overthinking this. He is there to help move Arya's story along, and it works nicely.

So, he manipulated Jon by making arguments against joining and suggesting Jon wait a few years, after he has experienced more of life? Reverse psychology, perhaps? And Jon's joining spites Ned by getting him out of a jam, since Ned no longer has to find a place for Jon since he can't stay at Winterfell and Ned doesn't want him in KL. And of course Benjen is bitter and resentful about the fact that he has made it all the way up to being First Ranger, one of the top jobs in the NW. Definitely a winning theory. I think he is either in the Far North or Skagos, doing something important for the Nights Watch. I expect we will meet up with him in the next book.

Sansa is seated next to Tyrion, who is her husband. As such, she is likely to be noticed if anything happens, and leaving could be difficult. Besides, what do you think her reaction will be if she sees her husband choking next to her? Run screaming from the room? Not if she's the same person we saw at the Blackwater, when she assisted a visibly injured Lancel, tending his wounds and seeing he got medical help. She'd probably be kneeling next to Tyrion trying to help him And even if she isn't, leaving unaccompanied is likely to be difficult. It certainly isn't something a sensible planner would count on. At least with Joffrey, there is likely going to be a commotion, and she has no connection to him so slipping out is a reasonable possibility. Olenna doesn't have to put the poison in the chalice herself. I have always suspected Garlan, who is family, at the table, and tall enough to slip the poison into the chalice.

@CamiloRP

Theories I have come up with, but have serious doubts are actually true. 1. Roose Bolton knew who Arya was at Harrenhal, or at least had a pretty good idea. She talks like a noble, has clear Northern sympathies, and matches the description of Robb's younger sister. Making her his page means he can keep an eye on her, and it somewhat protects her, and it puts her with Elmar Frey, Arya's betrothed. By the time he refuses to take her with him to Riverrun, he has changed sides and would lose her to Robb. It's a weak case, though. Everything has alternate explanations and nothing has come of it so far, except for Roose's discourse to Theon about how nobles talk. I think Martin was keeping his options open, but abandoned the idea. Still, if it happens that Roose knew, I won't be too surprised. 2. Arya's murder of the insurance guy was faked. It was a test, and only a test. The poison was fake, and he is alive and well, and hanging out where Arya doesn't. We never see his body, and if I recall correctly, the FM never say directly that he is dead. Also, the coin was not recovered. A gold coin that kills anyone who bites it could leave a trail of bodies; not the FM way. Again, a weak case. We know the poison itself exists (Oldtown Pate), and there was the possibility of Arya killing him without notifying the FM. And the poison could wear off or not last long. Also, I don't know where it would lead story wise. 3. The savage giant Sansa slays is Whoresbane Umber. Didn't see that coming, did you? The Ghost of High Heart often refers to people by their sigil, and Umer sigil is a giant with broken chains. And Whoresbane is currently supporting the Boltons, an act of treason. Still, slaying implies active participation, and I can't see Sansa doing it herself. Also, it's going to be quite some time before she makes her way north, and any ramifications of his support for Bolton will likely play out before then, if in fact he really is supporting him. In any case, I think the giant is Littlefinger, whose ancestral sigil is the Titan of Braavos. It's obvious that Sansa will have to deal with him at some point.

I have a soft spot for the idea that Jyana Reed, wife to Howland and mother to Meera and Jojen, is really Ashara Dayne in hiding. Her death is so suspicious it practically screams "fake", nobody ever visits Greywater Watch, and the story Meera tells Bran mentions her quite a bit. Still, I can't quite buy it. I don't know why Ashara would feel the need to hide, the children don't match her description as I recall, and if she is anyone we have heard of, my money is on Septa Lemore.

@CamiloRP A few comments. What does Littlefinger bring to the table? It's quite possible he provided the murder weapon. The Strangler is described as rare, difficult to make, and costly. And while maesters know how to make it, that fact isn't widely known. The Tyrells may not have had a ready source. The hairnet may be a method of getting the poison to the Tyrells as well as getting it into the feast. Who put it in the wine? Olenna doesn't have to be the one who administers it. She can pass it to someone. I've always suspected Garlan. He's family, at the table, tall, and likely not the subject of attention at least less than Margaery and Olenna. Poisoning the food. There are a huge number of courses. As such there is no assurance that your target will even eat the item you put the poison in. With wine, you can be sure that Joffrey (or Tyrion, for that matter), will drink the wine in front of them. If someone can introduce the poison into Tyrion's food, it should be even easier to poison his drink. So I seriously doubt the poison was in the pie, especially since it is described as being administered in wine. Sansa's departure. If Tyrion is dying, and she is anywhere near, it is unlikely she will be able to leave. Certainly anyone planning on exfiltrating her would need to assume that likelihood. If Littlefinger wants Sansa for himself, the logical thing is to get her out first, then deal with Tyrion, or separate them, as is the case here. I think we are better off trying to figure out how, and maybe why, Littlefinger and Olenna arranged things than in devising alternate scenarios that have no textual support.

@CamiloRP What is the purpose of the hairnet? Is it poisoned; is it the murder weapon? If it is, who handled it and how, and how did they get it into the pie without being obvious? If it's not poisoned, why bother, and what happened to the missing stone? I prefer answers from the text if possible, please.

Who would they fight? Yes, there is war going on in the main series, and there was Robert's Rebellion, but nothing really in between. You had 15 years of peace, and not much fighting even before that. Easier to have guardsmen for law enforcement, and peasant leavies as needed. If you have sellswswords, there isn't enough for them to do. Also the Crown might not appreciate their vassals having what amounts to standing armies. That's a bit too much of an alternate power base.

Two things worth mentioning: Sansa received the hairnet from Littlefinger's agent right after the Blackwater. At that time, Tyrion was not a factor for anyone. So I doubt he was the intended target. Tyrion's slice of pie was placed before him while he was in his seat at the table, next to Sansa. If he eats and chokes, Sansa is going nowhere. He wound up next to Joffrey because Joffrey was being a jerk. The dwarves were gone by then. @CamiloRP I've tried to analyze as a theory, without relying on LF's confession. Here goes: What we know: LF knew someone fiddled with Sansa's hairnet. Olenna Tyrell 'adjusted' it. No one else is mentioned touching it. One crystal was missing afterwards. The crystal matches the description we have for the Strangler. It is stated that the strangler is administered dissolved in wine. No other method has been given. Olenna was in proximity to Joffrey's chalice, as was Garlan, Margaery's brother. Either could slip it in, with a warning to Margaery not to drink. If drinking is unavoidable, she can spill it. You lose the opportunity, but are no worse off than before. Baelish visited Highgarden, giving plenty of opportunity for plotting. He tells Sansa that he had his servants spread stories about Joffrey's violence and cruelty. The Tyrells' meeting with Sansa is consistent with this. They clearly had heard stories they didn't fully trust and were looking for confirmation and more detail. The Tyrells have motive to kill Joffrey. He is violent and cruel, and was abusive to his betrothed. There is a reasonable fear Margaery could be a target of abuse. And Loras, now a kingsguard, is known to be hot tempered. A violent, and likely fatal, reaction to Margaery's mistreatment is a strong possibility. Cersei told Ned that if Jaime had known Robert had hit her, Jaime probably would have killed Robert. And Jaime is calm, cool, and collected compared to Loras. Kingslayer stew coming up. Even Sansa could see that coming. Tommen is someone they can more easily mold into being a good husband, as well as being a better ruler than his brother, who showed signs of a tyrannical nature. Nobody wants a repeat of Aerys II, which was where Joffrey seemed to be heading. While I would not care to take this case to a modern court for literary purposes, it is good enough for me to conclude that Baelish and the Tyrells conspired to murder Joffrey. The main flaw is Baelish's motive. I suspect he has one, we just aren't aware of it yet. For what it's worth, I don't think Sansa was intended as a fall guy, but a way to get the murder weapon in undetected. The two sides don't trust one another, and this is a way for the Tyrells to put some distance between themselves and the weapon, In case of betrayal. I also think the Tyrells were planning on it being passed off as accidental, while Baelish was intending on implicating Tyrion, especially after his marriage to Sansa.

I trust Littlefinger as far as I can throw him. But he knew about Olenna's actions with the hairnet, meaning he probably suggested it, and that the Tyrell's are involved. Olenna doesn't carry it with her for fear of betrayal and discovery. The Tyrells have no reason to want Tyrion dead; certainly not enough to go to the trouble of murdering him. They have clear reason to want Jeffrey dead, both because of domestic violence and its ramifications (i.e., Loras), and the likelihood of Joffrey becoming a tyrant. Jeffrey has bodyguards and is well protected; Tyrion is unprotected and takes no precautions. Also, part of the plan is to get Sansa out. But she is seated next to Tyrion, who is also her husband. If he is choking, all eyes are on him, and her as well. She is going nowhere. I don't know Baelish's motives, but can guess. A distraction to extricate Sansa, ingratiating himself with the Tyrells, gaining a hold over the Tyrells, or any or all of the above. Oh, and we've been told more than once that the Strangler is administered dissolved in wine. No other method has been given despite ample opportunity to do so (we even have one character who is learning about poisons). So yes, the poison is in the wine. Just tip off Margaery not to drink and let Joffrey go first. We know he likes his wine.

Harry is a red herring and a redshirt. He won't be around very long. I can see Sansa staying married to Tyrion, either as a blocking move or as a political partnership. I'm pretty sure Baelish is romantically interested in Sansa. I'm also sure the interest is not reciprocated. I can see Arya in a triangle, with Gendry possibly one point and someone like Edric Dayne or Podrick Payne the other. She and Edric seemed to get along well. Arya is awfully young, though, so I don't know how far it would progress. Though she is also precocious, curious, and reckless, so who knows?

Land of Always Winter Highgarden Tarth Greywater Watch Casterly Rock

If it's not revealed, it didn't happen. We're not in the real world. I will take this opportunity to express my utter disdain and hatred for the poison in the pie theory. Its adherents seem to be under the mistaken impression we are reading "CSI: Westeros" or The Case of the Poisoned Prince instead of A Song of Ice and Fire. Basing a theory on differences in reaction time to a poison is a bad idea. GRRM tends to be careless about such details. Other theories I hate include: Bloodraven is the 'big bad' and responsible for every bad thing that has happened. Littlefinger is the 'big bad' and is responsible for every bad thing that has happened. The guy is an opportunist, not a master planner. Robb's love potion. Two teens alone, with an aggressive female? No potion needed. Mad Mouse = Howland Reed. Mance hired the catspaw. Fake Dany. No good explanation of how or why a switch would occur. Quentyn is still alive. Arya will die and live on in her direwolf. Ugh! I'm sure I have forgotten some. And I haven't even bothered listing the huge number that are hard to take seriously. The ones I have listed are hardy perennials. Too many people take them seriously despite major flaws. They keep popping up like weeds, and are about as welcome and hard to eradicate.

The real world didn't get time zones until well into the 1800s. Before that, nothing, including information, moved fast enough for it to matter. Railroads changed that. Same thing with Planetos. Timekeeping isn't precise enough and things don't move fast enough for it to matter.

We've barely even met eight knights of the Vale. Which means either there is going to be a bunch of guys chosen we've never heard of, or the plan falls apart and the Winged Knights never take the field in the first place. My money is on door number two. I think something major happens at the tournament that upsets all the applecarts. I don't know what though. Reveal of Sansa, revelation of major news, an attack of some kind, who knows. But if it goes according to plan, I'll be surprised. It would practically be a first for this series.

Sorry, but the Vale, in and of itself, is not that important to the overall story. It's important mainly because it's where Sansa is located; it's where she will learn the arts of politics and influence and begin the process of becoming a political player in Westeros. She will have to make do with her already known connection to Sweetrobin, combined with her newly acquired talents. I see no indication that GRRM is setting up anything else unless it is to fall under LF's thrall. And that doesn't require a newfound heir either. Harry has no heir not because GRRM is hiding something, but because it really doesn't matter for the story.