Makk

9 minutes ago, Ser Rodrigo Belmonte II said:

I have a quick, dummy question guys, Ukraines population is almost 40 Mn, Russias total army size  is around 1.3Mn. Why can’t Ukraine use emergency wartime conscription and field 5Mn of its population to overwhelm the Russians with sheer numbers alone ? Since it’s their own land under attack they have a valid reason for drafting to convince their people. And they can atleast fit them with basic rifles if not all the fancy gear for millions.

If Ukraine was a jungle that might work with extreme loss of life. But it's not. The vast majority of the terrain Russia still holds is open fields and even Russian artillery couldn't miss a mass infantry charge. Machine guns and tanks do not help either. 

13 minutes ago, Bironic said:

The Gepards are a short range system. Russia tends to keep its airplanes within its own controlled air space and fire medium to long range weaponry into Ukrainian territory, so they won't be shot down by Gepards...

For the Jets to be used effectively against a moving force they do have to get a lot closer though right? Hypothetically if the Ukranians did start to drive some heavy equipment across the Dnipro, the real big danger in my mind would be aviation strikes which Ukraine can't match. Can the Gepards help protect against this at all? I presume they can at least shoot down some surveillance drones but if the jets can just eliminate any significant target Ukraine sends across I cant see an attack from this direction working at all.

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

While I'm sure Ukraine could use more equipment - especially in certain types - as far as I can tell the limiting factor is not equipment right now. I guess if we sent a VERY large amount of HIMARS and ATACMS and whatnot so Ukraine could obliterate all artillery at long, long range it might help some, but from what I've read the issue is simply it is limited by manpower and by the battlefield itself. 

When Bakhmut fell the Ukrainians ran out of mortars which is one of the most important tools to stop mass infantry charges. I'm not sure if that was just logistical or they were short across the entire front. We don't really know what is happening in Avdiika, obviously Ukraine doesn't want to reveal how much ammunition they have, but I hope it isn't a similar situation. This is a really great opportunity for Ukraine as the Russians are attacking the city relentlessly for political rather than strategic reasons in a seemingly crazy manner that doesn't care about losses. The longer this can continue the more Russia's forces will be degraded. Ukraine doesn't want to be forced to conserve ammo at this time.

I don't personally think sending more tanks is the highest priority. Ukraine needs much more of the cost effective stuff (drones) or the things they absolutely can't do without (ammunition, air defense, mine clearing equipment). It will be good to get F-16s but Russia will still have air superiority which is a real sticking point. I'm not sure what the most effective way of dealing with that is, can Gepards reliably shoot down the better Russian fighter jets? Those and the Patriot system seem to be overperforming and will be really important. But Ukraine doesn't get to choose their stuff, they mostly get what other countries have in storage/surplus with a little input. 

6 hours ago, baxus said:

Today in our semi-regular "explaining shit to a newb", I'd like to ask a question. Why was New Zealand player shown a red card for his hit on opponent's head and South African captain (Kolisy, was it?) got a yellow for head-butting an opponent in the face? I am aware of the difference between hitting with the shoulder and head-butting, but I didn't get the impression either was deliberate, and luckily there were no serious consequences to either hit.

People who have been playing the game for years don't understand it. They have a flowchart and checklist they go through which can be found here.

https://resources.world.rugby/worldrugby/document/2021/03/10/e597c9c8-e852-4e19-875f-18e02e7f7e24/Head_Contact_Process_EN_v1.pdf

For Canes card it was considered 1) Head contact - yes  2 ) Foul play - yes(Reckless, possibly intentional) 3)High danger (swinging arm, upright and dynamic) 4) No mitigation which upgrades to a red card.

Kolisi's was 1) Head Contact - yes, 2) Foul Play (Reckless) 3) High danger (Direct contact, lack of control, high speed, probably upright and dynamic, possibly leading head) 4) Mitigation - yes (a late change in dynamics due to another player involved in the tackle) - card not upgraded to red because of extra player in the tackle.

3 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

This is just a bad take on the red card.
He had him in his line of site for a few seconds then clotheslined his head. It was a blatant red card.

I did say it would be a red based on the rulings this tournament, but just to be clear it was less than half a "seconds" between Kriel starting to completely change direction and contact. The referee seeing it in real time right in front of him didn't even stop play for a penalty.

A frustrating game to end a frustrating period of rugby for All Blacks fans. South Africa were very impressive and were generally winning the collisions even when the numbers were even, I feel they could have gone up a gear if they needed to.

It was a brave effort from NZ but I do not want to see games ruined by red cards. I think having the red card be twenty minutes with a player down and then a replacement can come on, which was trialed in various places around the world, is the much better way to do it. At a time when the authorities changed the rules around any contact to the head and increased video influence it is going to continue to ruin games. Canes tackle was probably a red card by the rules, but it wasn't egregious. The player turned into him and he tackled instinctively rather than changing his body position and it wasn't a high speed collision. At least the rulings were mostly consistent at this world cup, over the last couple of years they have been all over the place.

It will be interesting to see if NZ can step back up once the most successful ever super rugby coach replaces the least ever successful super rugby coach. Fozzie has done my head in at times. The one team his short kicking game plan can actually be good against is South Africa, to break their blitz defense, and its the one time the team decides to play possession rugby. In theory the only player Robertson should be missing is Mo'unga but the other notable feature of Fozzies period in charge (aside from the lower win percentage) is the fact that so few new players coming from super rugby were unable to excel on the world stage. This could be a problem with Fozzies selections and general game plan, but it could also point to the fact that super rugby is becoming less competitive with the South Africans gone. I guess we will see over the next couple of years.

Quote

We already knew the 40-year-old worked as an army firearms instructor, according to an internal police notice, and has 20 years of military experience. 

The notice said Card had been committed to a mental health facility for two weeks this summer.

It also said Card had reported hearing voices and had threatened to carry out a shooting at the military training base in Saco, Maine.

It did not provide specific details about his treatment or condition.

I don't know how accurate these details are but I have read them in two places now. It seems staggering that this guy was in a mental health facility recently for a couple of weeks, threatened to carry out a shooting, but they didn't take away his guns. Are you allowed to own a gun in the US if you have been checked in for mental health issues?

Keep giving Ukraine more, more and even more drones. They are cheap and effective (even the low tech ones), can be manufactured everywhere, and can be used safely from a distance by less physically capable soldiers. This last month was the first time Ukraine has actually shot more artillery rounds than Russia, I'm not sure if those numbers have held since Russia have started getting their North Korean shipment, but given the disparity at the start of the war it is remarkable. Drones played a huge part in that identifying the artillery location and also destroying them. As the electronic warfare systems continue too get degraded in numbers drones should become even more important.

I think/hope there will be a steady stream of missiles, mortars, and all sorts of other ammunition coming in. I feel the situation in Bahkmut deteriorated and now Avdiika might, simply because they are running low on ammunition and have to be conservative with it. These assaults are gifts from the Russians to Ukraine, they are politically rather than strategically motivated stupidity which could, if defended fully, deliver real killing blows to the Russian war effort.

The other big thing is air defense. Ukraine's biggest weakness is the Russian airforce and as Russia becomes more desperate they will start using their jets more. Ukraine needs more systems so they can risk them closer to the frontlines.

8 hours ago, baxus said:

Once again, a total newbie here when it comes to rugby, and I might be talking utter nonsense but I must admit that I didn't like the way England played. TV pundits that covered the match and people online gave me the impression that that's the way England usually played, and I could see that it was tactically sound but I think they are the only team I've seen in this World Cup not going for tries as plan A. While it was fun to watch the match itself, the athleticism and intensity were top level but England seemed to me like they were too afraid to risk anything. It seemed to me like when in football a team is going for a draw away, parking the bus and hoping for an occasional counterattack.

To reiterate, I'm a rugby newb so I'm willing to listen to what I missed and why I'm wrong.

You're not wrong. England frequently play that way, especially when they are not in good form, although not usually to quite the same degree. This time it was amplified due to the weather and the fact that the Springboks greatest strength is probably their aggressive defense in the backline. So by not ever passing the ball they don't play into one of South Africa's strengths. It's very dour to watch but you do have to hand it to them, it was their best chance, they almost won, and I think they would be competitive against any team in those conditions so long as they can keep the score tight.

I don't think there is a good football analogy. It's a bit like being very direct with long balls and crossing into the box for tall players rather than passing, but they are still trying to contest possession rather than giving it away as easily.

On 10/16/2023 at 4:50 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

I see a bit of a parallel to one of the narratives that affected the election on this side of the ditch. In out case it was co-governance, i.e. the role of Maori tribes in decision-making. The push, at this point, for co-governance has not sought in any way to remove the absolute sovereignty of parliament, nor to set up a parallel legislative or regulatory system.

I have read through the entire report (assuming you are talking about the 68 page report commissioned about 5 years ago) and I don't believe that is correct. The idea of co-governance and how it was to be implemented was defined as...

"Arrangements in which ultimate decision-making authority resides with a collaborative body exercising devolved power – where power and responsibility are shared between government and local stakeholders."

The report itself was not a framework, it was more a bunch of discussion points that started by examining existing co-management and co-governance situations and how they currently work and then just a lot of conjecture and brainstorming how and mainly why they should be developed. But if you are to meet the spirit of the definition in any way, it is absolutely going to require multiple new regulatory systems. I don't actually think co-governance was an election issue at all. There may have been a little scare-mongering but there is not any policy developed and no way Labour could have brought this in on any scale if they got another 3 years.

46 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

Of course it won't, but I hold out hope for that tiny, infinitesimally small sliver of hope that Israel feeling a fraction of the daily life of the Palestinians living under the brutality of the Israeli apartheid state will wake some of them up to the realities of their homeland.

To my knowledge there has been no confirmation of the whole baby decapitation thing, but that is only relevant in the realm of media literacy because one way or another, they're dead, but the narrative that happened, which was repeated and subsequently retracted by the white house, is all part of a propaganda campaign to absolve Israel's crimes and paint Hamas' already unconscionable crimes as even more brutal to convince people like you that their bombing campaign in Gaza isn't criminal and is instead justifiable because of the inhumanity of Hamas.

The very next thing I read online after making that post was about how there was doubt and no confirmation for the baby decapitations and I did edit the post at the top pretty much straight away. I now suspect it is not true as the original sources claimed it was filmed and posted which should be pretty easy for someone to verify although I could never watch that myself. I realise dead is dead but it does make a difference to me as it points to the motivations. Deliberately glorifying the beheading of a child is probably the most evil thing I can imagine. It goes well beyond any perceived justice or vengeance, it would be pure sickness. I can't even imagine how anyone would think fabricating that story is acceptable though. I'm not going to comment on this further until there is more information, I feel bad about likely spreading such terrible misinformation.

42 minutes ago, GrimTuesday said:

This is likely delusional and naive to think, but there is part of me that thinks something good might come of this, namely the shared suffering of the Israelis and the Palestinians will wake people up to the reality that neither side can live in peace while Israel creates the conditions that cause events like this. Even the moderates in Israel support the continued apartheid and the violence that is required to maintain that system, so this would take a paradigm shift that is all but unheard of, but a small part of me holds out hope.

EDIT - I have to be careful here. I have just now read that claims made about all the beheaded babies may be a fabrication. I'll leave what I said below for now but I don't know what to make of this.

Absolutely not going to happen imo. This will only make things much worse. Throughout my life I have been placing significantly more blame on Israel. They were the participant with more power and therefore they had the responsibility to fix things since they were the only ones that could. Instead they created more oppression which, while not justifying terrorist attacks on civilians, did at least explain it and it was a predictable reaction that Israel did somewhat bring upon itself.

But these Hamas attacks far exceed that. Watching clips where they cut off babies heads while gleefully recording it is inherently abhorrent and completely unexplainable by anything Israel has done. Whereas it perhaps starts to explain the hatred that Israelis feel towards Palestine. I am really starting to question everything I thought was happening in this conflict and whether terrorist attacks around the mid 20th century, without cell phones to record everything going on, were a similar level of barbarity.

Israel is going to react by bombing Gaza to pieces. It's really depressing and I hope they show restraint, but for the first time I can actually understand why they are doing this and how they grew to be so cold and inhumane themselves. I can't see how this conflict will ever be resolved.

This is pretty funny. Ukrainian officer calls Russian tank manufacturers complaining that their tanks keep breaking down and that they need to improve the design. Eventually reveals that he is Ukrainian and that the tanks have been captured.

4 hours ago, Bironic said:

The whole boiling the frog approach was built on let’s say muddy ground to begin with. Putin escalated the war on the 24.2.2022, he didn’t say let’s just use infantry and small weapons in the invasion otherwise NATO might see it as an escalation… it was quite clear from around April to October in that year that Russia has no further means to escalate the war unless it uses some sort of WMD (which he then was strongly dissuaded to do by both „enemies“ like biden or Allies like Xi jinping).  And I think I never heard any Ukrainian say don’t give us this or that weapon because putin might nuke Kiyv… that’s mainly a western concern and Putin would certainly not use them against NATO, he didn’t invade the Baltic states even though they were/are much easier to take than Ukraine for the exact same reason… and since the Ukrainians are the ones fighting and suffering I think it’s mainly their decision to take…

I don't mind the strategy of "boiling the frog". I feel Putin would only ever use nukes when he has nothing else to lose, but I think he is psychopathic enough to do that. It isn't easy for him though, there is an entire chain of people he depends on to follow his demented orders and I imagine they would have to feel just as hopeless as him especially if they were doing so while breaking Russian law. By gradually turning up the assistance I think this has weakened him and made such a response much less likely. Of course the strategy does involve constantly turning up the heat without stopping. The frog is eventually supposed to boil.

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

What you are describing is what they have been doing for the past several weeks.  But even pushing east and west, rather than south, is slow going and challenging.  It looks like the slog south is resuming, and hopefully the Russian defenses are getting weaker, as the time for tanks/IFVs to exploit a breakthrough may be coming to a close. 

The small part of the trench network I was talking about was only captured about two weeks ago. Ukraine had only initially been able to get infantry there and they hav been facing constant counter attacks, especially to the north of Verbove, as Russia heavily reinforced the area. The importance of Verbove is related to the trench network, not as a route to Tokmak, Melitipol or south in another direction. I prepared a jpeg to illustrate what I am talking about but it seems you can't upload attachments to this site? You can see it on the ISW maps

 https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

if you zoom in on Verbove.

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Very tentative, but Ukrainian armor and infantry has been spotted making a concerted attack on the Verbove axis, behind the primary Russian defensive line. Ukraine may be looking to mount a major penetration of the rear of the line in one area and try to force a breach. There's been hesitation about attacking here because Verbove is not linked to the currently-held Ukrainian highway network, meaning resupply will be a bit of a headache.

I think rather than going for a deep penetrating breakthrough to the south, capturing Verbove allows Ukraine to fortify their only break point of the second Surivikan line. After they do that they can push east and west along the trench network which is easier than attacking a trench head on. The entire main Russian defensive line will become more vulnerable once that happens. 

On 9/18/2023 at 11:33 AM, Madame deVenoge said:

But, did Sun Tzu conquer half the known world?

I should also give a shout out to Alexander the Great, conquering the western half of the known world.

If you were talking about publishers, sure Sun Tzu. But if you are talking about who is the more accomplished warmonger Ghengis Khan would be well ahead. Sun Tzu would not make a top 10 list of Chinese generals. Alexander is a good call though. 

14 hours ago, Werthead said:

Ukraine has targeted and destroyed a large fixed AA battery in Yevpatoriya, Crimea. A low-flying UAV evaded air defences - they didn't even seem to fire - and blew up the battery with a single direct hit. There's also reports of a larger swarm drone attack that took out a S400 site elsewhere in Crimea.

This is apparently very big news. That system costs over US$500 million and was the main system of air defense in Crimea. It should significantly degrade their ability to intercept things. It's location was given away by a Russian tourist taking a selfie in front of it. 

I still don't like India's tacit approval of this war. And I detest the Hindustans Times coverage although I am unsure whether that is similar to Fox in that it panders to a specific undesirable segment of the population.

5 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

I also read the the Russians are having problems with billions of rupees that are very difficult to spend. They can spend them in India if they want to but abroad is problematic for some reason. A good deal for India I guess.

I thought this sounded really odd, why couldn't they just exchange for a different foreign currency? Sure it wouldn't prop up the Ruble but it was still money. As it turns out India have strict laws about controlling the flow of capital into and out of the country (although they did relax some restrictions in 2008). I started reading about it but it was a 276 page document and I really can't be bothered but it seems so amazingly backwards and must be massively damaging for their own economy. Anyway from what I understand, the sanctions have almost nothing to do with the Rupee problem other than making India a crucial market. India is (or was back in June) negotiating with Russia about work arounds so that Russia could use it to invest in India's capital markets or buy stakes in infrastructure entities. India doesn't seem overly keen to find a solution though as I would have thought it would be quite simple to allow an exception to foreign exchange controls.

Ukraine had a pretty good last day or so. They claimed a good chunk of very important land to the west and northwest of Robotyne. That was giving the Russians direct fire control over the only supply road to Robotyne and Verbove so Ukraine was supplying the troops there via helicopter every day. The area near verbove is the only current breach of the second surivikan line. So if all goes well we could have more rapid succeses soon. 

Interview with the pilot who defected with a combat helicopter. He mentions a lot of the Russian pilots just take off, get close to where they are supposed to be, shoot their missiles as quickly as possible without caring what they are shooting at, then get out of there. Also he mentioned that the commanders often commandeer the helicopters for their personal use. He flew 125km with an MI-6 as well to transport a commanders purebred cat.  

I have a bad feeling that Ukraine might have to continue to keep the pressure up throughout winter which will be a long hard slog for them. If Putin conducts a successful mobilisation (by success I mean getting another few hundred thousand untrained troops without causing a revolt), then it is important that they don't let Russia have the time prepare another massive defensive line. They don't want to have to start again next summer. I still believe and hope that Russia could just capitulate at any moment though.

It has been claimed that at least some of the drones used in this or other recent attacks are from Australia and made out of some cardboard composite to avoid radar detection.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/aussie-cardboard-drones-used-in-attack-on-russian-airfield-20230829-p5e0bv.html

45 minutes ago, karaddin said:

I guess there's still the other larger time frame mystery of how on earth Prigozhin thought it was a good idea to be flying around Russia after half assing his coup.

The best speculation I have heard on this is that Prigozhin judged (correctly) that it would be a bad strategic move from Putin to assassinate him, so he thought he was safe. Unfortunately for Prigozhin, Putin's paranoia and vindictiveness is much higher than his intelligence.