Jon's mistakes - and why he shouldn't be King

[Chaircat Meow]

I don’t necessarily disagree that Jon’s desire to save everyone can be detrimental. However, from this the idea he’s unsuited to be king does not follow. In story he’d still make a very good king when set against the likes of Aerys/Robert/Joffrey/Tommen/Balon, maybe Aegon and Renly and even Stannis.

I agree with the idea Jon’s dilemma at QueensCrown is a straight up ‘good of the many over the few(one)’ problem. It is incredible to me people think Styr would have let Jon live if he failed to kill the old man. Styr is just about to risk all in a sneak attack on Castle Black, and on his mission rests Mance’s best hope of breaking through the wall. Styr is not going to trust Jon to kill his own former brothers if he can’t kill the old man. No way. The logic on this one is elementary. It is borderline miraculous Styr put up with Jon for as long as he did, and frankly silly Mance sent him in the first place. The old man would certainly push Styr over the edge.

The book poses the old man question as a ‘greater good’ question too. Jon is told his honour counts for nothing if the realm is safe. He has to do whatever is asked of him, no matter what. No baulking. If he doesn’t kill the old man the overwhelming probability is he loses all chance of warning his brothers and saving the wall. Result = wildling invasion of the north. Jon won’t do it. I honestly don’t see the difference here with the typical hostage dilemma, and Jon sets himself up for that in DwD. Both require an innocent to die for the GG. Ned was willing to take the plunge on this one, so the idea the author thinks 'utilitarian' (a much misused term, but nvm) arguments are horrible, as one poster argued, isn’t going to stand, sorry.

Anyway, after all this I don’t see Jon’s decision here as a mistake. There are no clear answers to these problems. Some of us think violating one individual to save many can be right in certain circumstances, and some of us don’t. Some of us probably don’t really know what we think, and won’t until we face a situation like this. As was mentioned, Jon didn’t think through all the consequences in a clear way. He just knew he couldn’t commit murder so he refused Styr’s request, knowing he’d probably die for it. I don’t see anything wrong with this. Would not dream of criticizing someone for doing this. In most circumstances this is an incredibly brave and admirable decision.

Hardhome. Here I think Jon’s compassion and military sense were in perfect accord until all the ships got wrecked and Jon heard the Others were surrounding Hardhome. Then, noticeably, Jon never uses his more dead wildlings = more wights argument again, despite it being necessary to do so to convince his officers. I always saw this as happening because Jon knew the risks of an overland rescue had started to balance with the advantages to be had by saving the wildlings.

Lets look at this.

First point is that failure is actually a big risk here, not a small one.

If Jon sends a big force, say 300 men, he’s now sent 2/3 of the watch beyond the wall (100 are with Cotter Pyke). A bigger force makes more sense, as there is less chance of failure that way, and a wildling column 4-6,000 strong will need a lot of protection. The cost of failure is actually very high therefore, because a loss really means the end of the nw. They are not going to survive with only 200 men remaining, and bereft of their leaders and their best rangers. Morale would collapse totally.

Also, in normal military operations you can assess risks by thinking through what your enemy is going to do. However, the Others are so mysterious Jon has no way of knowing how likely they are to intercept and destroy his relief column. They were capable of clearing 300 of the nw’s best from a fortified position, so there seems no reason they couldn’t beat Jon’s force with ease. On the other hand, they tend to refrain from attacking wildling groups. They allowed Tormund and the Weeper to continue operating behind the wall in DwD. So, its sort of up to the Others what happens. As they are utterly unpredictable there is no real way to weight risk.

For these two reasons I think Jon dropped his military reasons for helping the wildlings and focused on the humanitarian argument, because it was the only one he was certain about.

Anyway, we’d only really know how terrible a mistake this was if he actually sent the mission, and if we knew how many men he sent. As these things did not happen, its hard to judge.

Moving on, I know what I would call the big mistake Jon made. It happens in Jon xiii, DwD. He gets trolled by Ramsay and decides to lead 500 poorly armed and disciplined wildlings through hundreds of miles of snow, against an army of approx. 5,000 men-at-arms, who possess a vast fortress with 100 foot high walls and who have just trashed the army that trashed 20,000 wildlings (or, so Jon thought). Something’s not right about that …

[Ramsay Gimp]

Moving on, I know what I would call the big mistake Jon made. It happens in Jon xiii, DwD. He gets trolled by Ramsay and decides to lead 500 poorly armed and disciplined wildlings through hundreds of miles of snow, against an army of approx. 5,000 men-at-arms, who possess a vast fortress with 100 foot high walls and who have just trashed the army that trashed 20,000 wildlings. Something’s not right about that …

:agree: Even leaving aside the "was it breaking his vows/justifiable" argument, the plan made very little military sense unless there was some aspect of it we aren't made aware of. A trap or ambush against Ramsay, for instance

[Addam of Hull]

:agree: Even leaving aside the "was it breaking his vows/justifiable" argument, the plan made very little military sense unless there was some aspect of it we aren't made aware of. A trap or ambush against Ramsay, for instance

I suspect that there likely was. Martin skips over Jon's dialogue with Tormund, for good reason, and then we're never privy to what his actual plan is besides meeting Ramsay in the field. Likely, it's one of those details he intends to reveal in Winds.

[Dicer]

Moving on, I know what I would call the big mistake Jon made. It happens in Jon xiii, DwD. He gets trolled by Ramsay and decides to lead 500 poorly armed and disciplined wildlings through hundreds of miles of snow, against an army of approx. 5,000 men-at-arms, who possess a vast fortress with 100 foot high walls and who have just trashed the army that trashed 20,000 wildlings (or, so Jon thought). Something’s not right about that …

True. But I loved the part where Jon tries to get support for his fight:

"The Night's Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms," Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. "It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words ... but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows.

"The Night's Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless ..." Jon paused. "... is there any man here who will come stand with me?"

The roar was all he could have hoped for, the tumult so loud that the two old shields tumbled from the walls. Soren Shieldbreaker was on his feet, the Wanderer as well. Toregg the Tall, Brogg, Harle the Huntsman and Harle the Handsome both, Ygon Oldfather, Blind Doss, even the Great Walrus. I have my swords, thought Jon Snow, and we are coming for you, Bastard.

At that point I wanted Jon to march on Winterfell, no matter how foolhardy it was :D. And then it all went to hell.

[kissdbyfire]

OK. He did the right thing in your opinion. Is that what a King should do? A King who is responsible for all people, and not just for the one he kills with his own hand? Doesn't Jon have a responsibility towards his brothers at the watch?

Course he does! And that's why trying to save the 6,000+ wildlings at Hardhome is important. Not just because they'd all die, but because they'd die and they'd become wights. Wights that would eventually strike against the NW and the realms of men.

[Maia]

There is enough food, she doesn't know this, but Jon does.

Nope, there is not enough food, Jon just chooses to delusionally ignore it, whenever it is brought up. Yes, he got a loan from the Iron Bank, but it is not a blank check _and_ he has no clue how much it would cost to buy and transport the food or how long it would take, given that there is none to have in the North, as the northerners themselves are already short.

But instead of sending Marsh to secure the money and start buying supplies ASAP, while navigation is still possible and the prices aren't so high yet, Jon chose to sit on the news of the loan and sent all his ships to Hardhome. So, yea, Marsh, Selyse, etc. have a very strong argument, however unimpressive they might otherwise be.

Yarwyck was no more helpful. “If the wildlings at Hardhome need saving, let the wildlings here go save them. Tormund knows the way to Hard-home.

And how is this wrong? Even though Yarwick clearly doesn't care about the fate of the wildlings at Hardhome, that doesn't make what he says automatically dismissible.

Most surviving NW members are stewards and builders, with no ranging experience and the wildlings won't trust them anyway. Why even send them, when they are likely to be more hindrance than help? Nor can NW afford to send all of their few surviving rangers, because then they'd be utterly dependent on the wildlings for information about what is happening beyond the Wall. So, send maybe a dozen NW brothers, choosing those who feel most comfortable with the wildlings and let Tormund do this thing, if Jon refuses to see cold, hard reasons as to why this is a bad idea.

Jon's place was clearly on the Wall, holding the new fragile alliance together, as he was the only one who could do it. Intending to lead the ranging was rank idiocy.

I am with the OP, mostly - except that I don't think that Jon is actually hopeless. Sure, he makes mistakes, but then because of privileged treatment he received from the story, his naive idealistic impulses never yet had wide-reaching consequences, as those of other characters did, when they were badly thought through from the practical PoV.

If this one actually results in dozens/hundreds of corpses and some wildlings use the confusion to escape the Wall and go raid the northerners, then Jon might actually learn a valuable lesson from it.

But if the murder attempt is just a rough form of "Joning" - i.e. a plot device designed to let Jon do whatever he likes, but shield him not just from death, but from the dire consequences his actions ought to have for other people, then I would have to agree completely.

And LOL at the people who somehow argue that killing innocent child hostages is somehow more moral than killing a doomed old man and saving NW and the North from a large-scale invasion. From morality and human decency PoV killing children is clearly much worse.

Jon knowingly entered the same trap as Dany, except that in his case he knew beyond the shadow of doubt, after Ygritte and the old man, that he'd be unable to execute the hostages even if they were adults.

[Alty732]

Hard Home was a good call. All the wights that those dead people would make? Jon himself points this out.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

Nope, there is not enough food, Jon just chooses to delusionally ignore it, whenever it is brought up. Yes, he got a loan from the Iron Bank, but it is not a blank check _and_ he has no clue how much it would cost to buy and transport the food or how long it would take, given that there is none to have in the North, as the northerners themselves are already short.

But instead of sending Marsh to secure the money and start buying supplies ASAP, while navigation is still possible and the prices aren't so high yet, Jon chose to sit on the news of the loan and sent all his ships to Hardhome. So, yea, Marsh, Selyse, etc. have a very strong argument, however unimpressive they might otherwise be.

And how is this wrong? Even though Yarwick clearly doesn't care about the fate of the wildlings at Hardhome, that doesn't make what he says automatically dismissible.

Most surviving NW members are stewards and builders, with no ranging experience and the wildlings won't trust them anyway. Why even send them, when they are likely to be more hindrance than help? Nor can NW afford to send all of their few surviving rangers, because then they'd be utterly dependent on the wildlings for information about what is happening beyond the Wall. So, send maybe a dozen NW brothers, choosing those who feel most comfortable with the wildlings and let Tormund do this thing, if Jon refuses to see cold, hard reasons as to why this is a bad idea.

Jon's place was clearly on the Wall, holding the new fragile alliance together, as he was the only one who could do it. Intending to lead the ranging was rank idiocy.

snip

Sorry, but you're wrong.

Jon asks the Iron Bank for a loan “to keep us fed till spring. To buy food and hire ships to bring it to us.” Tycho said “It is not possible, my lord.” but as far as we know, "It took the better part of an hour before the impossible became possible, and another hour before they could agree on terms."

afterwards Jon thinks:

It gave him an uneasy feeling. Braavosi coin would allow the Night’s Watch to buy food from the south when their own stores ran short, food enough to see them through the winter, however long it might prove to be. A long hard winter will leave the Watch so deep in debt that we will never climb out, Jon reminded himself, but when the choice is debt or death, best borrow.

The logistics may be complicated but that doesn't make the task insurmountable. Jon even lists off all the possible sources of food.

Bowen Marsh sighed. “If they do not slay us with their swords, they will do so with their mouths. Pray, how does the lord commander propose to feed Tormund and his thousands?”

Jon had anticipated that question. “Through Eastwatch. We will bring in food by ship, as much as might be required. From the riverlands and the stormlands and the Vale of Arryn, from Dorne and the Reach, across the narrow sea from the Free Cities.”

It's still possible to get food, the price can be met whatever the cost. The text is pretty clear on this.

You think Selyse has a "strong argument" when she argues that the kids at HH should be left to die because there isn't enough food, when in fact there is; and because they're too young to serve in Stan's army and win him the IT; and because they'll be reborn in the light, which of course they won't be...because that was her argument.

You've made some assertions as to why the ranging was a bad idea based on stuff that doesn't appear in the text (ie Jon didn't get a loan to feed the watch through the winter, that Jon planned to send the Stewards or Builders, or that Jon planned to send all of the remaining rangers, neither of which were discussed) while ignoring clearly stated facts from the text (Jon has borrowed enough gold from the IB to see the watch through winter. In the end Jon sent Tormund with as many men as he need, "to do his thing") so i don't see how you can say Jon's ignoring cold hard reasons why the ranging was bad idea. Those reasons either weren't argued by people in the text or if they were it was irrelevant.

[bemused]

:agree: Even leaving aside the "was it breaking his vows/justifiable" argument, the plan made very little military sense unless there was some aspect of it we aren't made aware of. A trap or ambush against Ramsay, for instance.

Which is the way I think Jon's mind would run. In ASoS , when considering the impending attack by Styr , we see Jon musing...

The thing to do would be to take the attack to them, he thought. With fifty rangers well mounted, we could cut them apart on the road. They did not have fifty rangers, though, nor half as many horses.

The best way to defend CB from the south is to not let the attack reach it.

It wouldn't take much to adapt the general idea to the resources he now has and the new situation. Now he has wildlings ..used to snow and skirmish fighting, while the snow is a disadvantage to Ramsay. The road won't be much different than open country.

I think it's obvious that Jon thinks Ramsay is on his way. He doesn't go into a lengthy tactical explanation to the crowd in the sheildhall. His purpose there is to win the wildlings to him, then he can lead them where he will... But he can't think Ramsay is in Winterfell, or we wouldn't read,

I should talk with Melisandre after I see the queen, he thought. If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me.

[Lummel]

Serious question: Can the Others or wights pass through or scale the Wall? If not, then it doesn't matter whether a few more thousand wights are created at Hardhomme or for even from the wildings that eventually were integrated into the NW...it will be the magic within the Wall that will prevent an invasion, not the men manning it.

If the wights or white walkers can climb the Wall then everybody have best either kill themselves or flee to Dorne. While we know that magic is involved in the Wall we only know that Coldhands can't use the Black Gate at the Nightfort, we don't know if wights or White Walkers can get through the normal gates. With increased wight power there is a threat that they could attempt to open many of the sealed gates at once. They feel no pain and work through the nights. If the magic alone was sufficient to stop the white walkers and the wights then there wouldn't need to be a Night's Watch. Nor would you put gates in the Wall. You'd just have a Wall as an impermeable barrier and leave the area beyond the Wall well alone.

[Lummel]

How are wights a threat if the wall is manned and standing? Even if they are, don't you think every man on the wall is worth far more than on the ground? Eddard said 500 men on Winterfell could hold an army of 100,000, if my memory serves me right. There would be 6,000 extra wights, and Jon is risking the lives of around 1,000 men - definitely not strategically sound, in my opinion

EDIT: Especially when sending the other half of your forces to fight South.

Winterfell is a castle, not a Wall stretching from sea to shining sea. Winterfell is easily defensible, even by a small army. An army of 100,000 besieging Winterfell would need food for 100,000. Wights don't need feeding which makes them strategically much more dangerous. Nor will they be daunted by harsh weather conditions - unlike the human defenders. Nor can they be easily be stopped from opening up the sealed gates.

Increasing the numbers available to an enemy of unknown power is a huge risk.

One could make a case for the move against Winterfell as being strategically sound - securing the rear against the Bolton threat, but Jon is not thinking strategically when he reads the Pink Letter. We are with him as his mind plays back over his memories of his childhood and of his siblings. Its a purely emotional response - but then, that is his character, we see that on several tense occasions - the Old Man is another classic example.

[David Selig]

I am not a Jon fan at all, to put it mildly, but if making mistakes like this at 16 makes you unsuitable for king, there won't be many suitable candidates, if any.

[RK Rajagopal]

Winterfell is a castle, not a Wall stretching from sea to shining sea. Winterfell is easily defensible, even by a small army. An army of 100,000 besieging Winterfell would need food for 100,000. Wights don't need feeding which makes them strategically much more dangerous. Nor will they be daunted by harsh weather conditions - unlike the human defenders. Nor can they be easily be stopped from opening up the sealed gates.

Increasing the numbers available to an enemy of unknown power is a huge risk.

One could make a case for the move against Winterfell as being strategically sound - securing the rear against the Bolton threat, but Jon is not thinking strategically when he reads the Pink Letter. We are with him as his mind plays back over his memories of his childhood and of his siblings. Its a purely emotional response - but then, that is his character, we see that on several tense occasions - the Old Man is another classic example.

Jon mentions this strategic advantage of preventing more wights from being formed exactly once in the text - and that is when Marsh says that it would be enemies which are dead. As you say - we have his POV, and we are privy to his thoughts. I argue that, much like the old man situation, his decision is an emotional one, and not a strategic one. He thinks about women and children suffering and dying. He thinks about the logistics and planning for the mission. He thinks about food, the number of men, animals, etc. But he doesn't weigh this against the cost of the mission. To me, this is because it doesn't matter to Jon. This is not a strategic decision on his part.

I do agree that defending Winterfell might be easier than defending the Wall, but I think that the defense multiplier for the wall should still count for something - don't you think?

EDIT: The fact that he wanted to send the HH mission at a time when he also leads a force down South makes it clear to me that it is clearly not a strategic decision on Jon's part

[Maia]

Sorry, but you're wrong.

Jon asks the Iron Bank for a loan “to keep us fed till spring. To buy food and hire ships to bring it to us.” Tycho said “It is not possible, my lord.” but as far as we know, "It took the better part of an hour before the impossible became possible, and another hour before they could agree on terms."

So, your contention is what? That Jon got a blank check from the Iron Bank? Despite the fact that NW would be clearly unable to repay such a debt? Because Jon doesn't even know how many people he would have to feed, nor for how long, since the length of winter is, you know, variable.

If Jon got a blank check, that would be yet another instance where he gets a very special treatment from the story indeed, compared to other characters and general logic of ASOIAF world.

Braavosi coin would allow the Night’s Watch to buy food from the south when their own stores ran short

This demonstrates that Jon really has no clue, since he intends to only begin buying food once their own stores start running short... completely ignoring the fact that with a huge war in the south, other people would be running out sooner and/or be unwilling to part with what they have. Not to mention that navigation should become exponentially more dangerous as winter deepens.

Bowen Marsh sighed. “If they do not slay us with their swords, they will do so with their mouths. Pray, how does the lord commander propose to feed Tormund and his thousands?”

Jon had anticipated that question. “Through Eastwatch. We will bring in food by ship, as much as might be required. From the riverlands and the stormlands and the Vale of Arryn, from Dorne and the Reach, across the narrow sea from the Free Cities.”

As far as we know, Jon didn't even tell Marsh about the loan, so the notion of buying food would sound clearly bogus to Marsh. But even apart from that, Jon shows that he doesn't understand what he is talking about, when he mentions getting food from Riverlands and Stormlands.

And why should the Reach, which actively supports the Lannisters, sell food to somebody hosting Stannis?! Vale and Dorne could be maybes, perhaps, but there would be very stiff competition for their produce. Ditto the Free Cities.

Factor the stormy winter sea into all of this, which really should make navigation impossible real soon and yea... Marsh has every reason to be unimpressed and consider it all an empty prattle of a boy who has no idea about political and economical realities and never lived through a real winter.

that Jon planned to send the Stewards or Builders, or that Jon planned to send all of the remaining rangers, neither of which were discussed

Jon planned to send hundreds of NW brothers to Hardhome prior to his assassination attempt. Rangers used to make up a third of NW membership and most of them were killed during Mormont's ranging, as has been mentioned in the text. So, who did Jon intend to send? You do the math.

And putting them under a command of a wildling, whom they had no reasons to trust and tons to hate and detest? Yea, that puts the cherry on top of it, really.

The whole "a few thousands more wights" argument doesn't hold water either. Wights are very vulnerable to fire and can't operate in daylight. As long as there are enough people to hold the Wall, they shouldn't be that much of a problem.

From purely strategic PoV, Jon should have payed more attention to "dead things in the water" and what it might mean concerning the Others' ability to circumvent the Wall by sea. Because thousands of wights beyond the Wall are a much lesser threat than a couple of Others managing to bypass it, from everything that we (and NW) have seen so far.

Yes, I know, that's cold. But the Hardhome expedition is the equivalent of Dany trying to help the Astapori refugees. At some point, as a ruler/leader you have to cut your costs. Except that, as always, Jon is spared that by an external agency.

I think it's obvious that Jon thinks Ramsay is on his way. He doesn't go into a lengthy tactical explanation to the crowd in the sheildhall. His purpose there is to win the wildlings to him, then he can lead them where he will... But he can't think Ramsay is in Winterfell, or we wouldn't read,

I should talk with Melisandre after I see the queen, he thought. If she could see a raven in a storm, she can find Ramsay Snow for me.

This is a very good and well supported idea... but like with the loan Jon outwits himself here by not explaining his reasoning. Obviously, to Marsh and Co the idea as publicly presented by Jon sounds utterly insane. But even if Jon's intentions were as you state, he is still denuding the Wall of it's defenders and using the wildlings as his private army. Which makes Jon look a liar concerning the reasons he let the wildlings through in the first place. Since dealing with Ramsey and helping Hardhome wildlings is clearly more important to him than having the Wall protected.

Re: Mance, I can't imagine how using him to get Arya doesn't implicate NW. He is an NW deserter and Jon should have executed him.

And that makes his meddling with the Boltons look even worse to any outside observers. Not to mention that Mance's requirement to have half a dozen young and pretty spearwives as his team only makes sense if he intended to interact with northerners, as should have been obvious to Jon.

If it had been just about picking Arya up from the road, a couple women to put her at ease would have been enough and age/appearance would have been largely irrelevant. In fact, somebody "motherly" might have been better.

So, let's not pretend that Jon had no idea that Mance planned something more than fetching Arya from the no-man's land. Jon is not that stupid.

[By the Old Gods Not theNew]

Maia, on 01 Dec 2013 - 05:29 AM, said:

So, your contention is what? That Jon got a blank check from the Iron Bank? [1]

Despite the fact that NW would be clearly unable to repay such a debt? Because Jon doesn't even know how many people he would have to feed, nor for how long, since the length of winter is, you know, variable.
 [2]

If Jon got a blank check, that would be yet another instance where he gets a very special treatment from the story indeed, compared to other characters and general logic of ASOIAF world.
 

[3] [4]

This demonstrates that Jon really has no clue, since he intends to only begin buying food once their own stores start running short... completely ignoring the fact that with a huge war in the south, other people would be running out sooner and/or be unwilling to part with what they have. Not to mention that navigation should become exponentially more dangerous as winter deepens.
 



As far as we know, Jon didn't even tell Marsh about the loan, so the notion of buying food would sound clearly bogus to Marsh [5]. But even apart from that, Jon shows that he doesn't understand what he is talking about, when he mentions getting food from Riverlands and Stormlands [6].
 And why should the Reach, which actively supports the Lannisters, sell food to somebody hosting Stannis?! Vale [7] and Dorne could be maybes, perhaps, but there would be very stiff competition for their produce. Ditto the Free Cities [8].


Factor the stormy winter sea into all of this, which really should make navigation impossible real soon and yea... Marsh has every reason to be unimpressed [5] and consider it all an empty prattle of a boy who has no idea about political and economical realities and never lived through a real winter.
 



Jon planned to send hundreds of NW brothers to Hardhome prior to his assassination attempt. Rangers used to make up a third of NW membership and most of them were killed during Mormont's ranging, as has been mentioned in the text. So, who did Jon intend to send? You do the math [9]. And putting them under a command of a wildling, whom they had no reasons to trust and tons to hate and detest? Yea, that puts the cherry on top of it, really.



The whole "a few thousands more wights" [10] argument doesn't hold water either. Wights are very vulnerable to fire and can't operate in daylight. As long as there are enough people to hold the Wall, they shouldn't be that much of a problem. 
From purely strategic PoV, Jon should have payed more attention to "dead things in the water" and what it might mean concerning the Others' ability to circumvent the Wall by sea. Because thousands of wights beyond the Wall are a much lesser threat than a couple of Others managing to bypass it, from everything that we (and NW) have seen so far.

 [11]

Yes, I know, that's cold. But the Hardhome expedition is the equivalent of Dany trying to help the Astapori refugees. At some point, as a ruler/leader you have to cut your costs. Except that, as always, Jon is spared that by an external agency.

 

[12]

This is a very good and well supported idea... but like with the loan Jon outwits himself here by not explaining his reasoning. Obviously, to Marsh and Co the idea as publicly presented by Jon sounds utterly insane [13]. But even if Jon's intentions were as you state, he is still denuding the Wall of it's defenders and using the wildlings as his private army. Which makes Jon look a liar concerning the reasons he let the wildlings through in the first place [14]. Since dealing with Ramsey and helping Hardhome wildlings is clearly more important to him than having the Wall protected [15].


1. Yep. That’s my contention. The text is clear on this question. Jon got a blank check from the Iron bank.

2. Jon worries about the NW’s ability to pay the debt come spring because the length of winter is unknown:

“A long hard winter will leave the Watch so deep in debt that we will never climb out, Jon reminded himself, but when the choice is debt or death, best borrow.”

If a long winter would result in greater debt we can infer the loan is structured to account for unknown variables such as # of mouths, length of winter, cost of transport, etc.

3. Jon got a blank check. Take it up with GRRM.

4. I’m arguing that based on the text Jon got a blank check. You seem to be arguing that in spite of the text Jon shouldn’t have gotten a blank check, therefore he didn’t.

5. This isn’t a discussion about what Bowen Marsh considers “bogus” or finds “unimpressive.” This is a discussion about JON’s decision-making and whether or not he should have listened to Marsh’s advice. Give what we know (ie Jon got a blank check) Marsh’s advice to let the Free Folk die because there isn’t enough food is bad advice. Furthermore we also know, regardless of your skepticism, that even Bowen Marsh believes the Watch can get food from the south via the sea with sufficient coin:

“If we had sufficient coin, we could buy food from the south and bring it in by ship,” the Lord Steward said. (Jon IV ADwD)

6. I love the double standard Jon is expected to know things that we (the readers) know he doesn’t know (he’s not getting reports from the RL detailing the destruction of crops and livestock) but Marsh gets a pass for not knowing about the blank check from the Iron Bank, and for saying essentially the same thing when he claims food can be bought from the south.

7. The war to the south hasn’t touched the Vale. And from Littlefinger and Sansa/Alysane we learn the Vale has large winter stores and lots of poor lords (waynwoods, corbrays, cadet branches of the Arryns). We also know that Bronze Yohn Royce accompanied his third son to the wall, so there is some connection between the region and the NW. Littlefinger Lord Protector of the Vale, as well as a number of lesser lords may see the opportunity to make small fortune by taking money from the Iron Bank to feed the NW. Littlefinger also has ties to Braavos and presumably the Iron Bank as Robert’s Master of Coin.

8. The nearest Free City is Braavos, the Iron Bank hails form there and it’s a city known for its harbors and maritime trade, as well as its links to the hinterlands of Essos. Braavos could theoretically facilitate the entire process of feeding the Watch itself.

9. Jon’s plans changed when he received the Pink Letter and made new plans with Tormund for “the better part of two hours.” The new plan included putting Tormund in charge of the ranging and giving him as many men as needed. That doesn’t mean Tomrund wanted any of the builders or stewards of questionable loyalty. When Jon asked Marsh and Yarwyck for their counsel he asked about sending Free Folk (Tormund, Giants and Spearwives), not men of the NW. After revealing his plans in the Shieldhall Jon thinks to himself “Yarwyck and Marsh were slipping out, he saw, and all their men behind them. It made no matter. He did not need them now. He did not want them.” So I don’t see any textual justification to include them in the equation.

10. 6000 is more than a few thousand. It would be the largest, known, standing army in the North at the end of ADwD. It out numbers the NW itself (about 5k Tormunds 3100, the mole town 1000, and the Watch had fallen bellow 1000 at the start of the series).

11. Dead things in the water most likely refer to the wights, not the Others. Because wights are the raised corpses reanimated by the Others. The Others are alive. Their movements and appearances differ from their minions who are clearly the zombie-esque. And either way if the Others are able to flank the Wall via the sea and attack from the behind taking out the Walls defenses if they come south with an additional 6000 wights that’s bad news bears.

12. Actually the real difference between the two examples is that Dany doesn’t face an immanent threat of the slaves of Astapor becoming ice-zombies and attacking her. Dany was spared having to deal w/ ice zombies for the time being.

13. And after giving his public presentation Jon thinks “He did not need them now. He did not want them”

14. Actually Jon has made the free folk swear personal oaths of fealty to him since he first enlisted their help at mole’s town, and he tells Bowen, Yarwyck, and the Nurrey and the Liddle as much about his deal w/ Tormund when he prepares to let him through.

15. Dealing with HH and Ramsey is his way of protecting the Wall. He’s trying to limit the Others access to 6000 potential wights, while making moves to defend Castle Black from an attack coming form the vulnerable southern approach.

[Dicer]

<Snip>

Well said.

If Jon got a blank check, that would be yet another instance where he gets a very special treatment from the story indeed, compared to other characters and general logic of ASOIAF world.

So I guess Stannis is getting special treatment because he gets a check from the Iron Bank to buy an army to win his war? And I guess Dany is getting special treatment since Victarion and the Iron Born are on their way to deliver her with some ships to get to Westeros? And I guess Sansa was getting special treatment because the Hound took a liking to her and decided to protect her in KL. And I guess LF gets special treatment and gets away with all the treachery despite Tyrion knowing that LF framed him with the dagger? I could go on.

Your complaints seems to stem from a dislike of the character rather than a legitimate comment on Jon's decision making. You seem to be angry that for once something is working right for Jon amongst all the problems he is facing at the wall.

[bemused]

Maia..

I don't know when people think Jon would have explained his thinking behind the shieldhall speech and to whom? Bowen Marsh was never going to agree with anything Jon said .. no matter what it was , because one of the main motivations behind Bowen's actions has always been to discredit Jon...developing into the need/desire to kill him after Bowen allies himself with Thorne / Slynt. I say always because , to judge by his objections to Satin being promoted by Jon ( that he is not "of good birth " ) , it's reasonable to assume that ( off page) Marsh must have made the same objection to Mormont in Jon's case... Whatever Jon has proposed has been met with extreme opposition, without any willingness to compromise ,or propose a reasonable alternative. If Jon says white , Bowen says black and there's no moving him to any degree of grey.

The whole business about the food is a case in point... Back when Bowen and Jon were inspecting the stores,

“If we had sufficient coin, we could buy food from the south and bring it in by ship,” the Lord Steward said.

We could, thought Jon, if we had the gold, and someone willing to sell us food. Both of those were lacking. Our best hope may be the Eyrie.

Jon agrees it's a good idea, but doesn't have a way to make it work at that juncture...But since he thinks of the Vale, we see he's working on the problem. ..Even Wick tries to offer a helpful suggestion - augmenting the stores by hunting ...“There’s still game in the woods.” .. but Bowen opines ,“And wildlings, and darker things,” ... “I would not send out hunters, my lord. I would not.” ...and Jon thinks, No. You would close our gates forever and seal them up with stone and ice... This probably is the only option that would risk no more men of the watch immediately , but it's easy to see how it would likely doom them all in the end. The Watch is in a no risk , no gain sort of situation.

Next , Tycho arrives with Selyse, and Jon immediately asks for a discussion with him. There are plenty of people about to see him approach Tycho. After two hours closeted in Jon's quarters they emerge still on friendly terms and go to eat together. Jon leaves the document of their agreement lying on his table.

At least one of Jon's guards, Mully , has pretty obviously been spying for Bowen, and Jon's guards have his leave to step into his quarters to avoid the cold when he's not there. Bowen could easily know everything that was in that document. The ships and the credit.

But let's suppose he didn't know ... Though I'm not one who thinks Bowen is terribly intelligent , he'd have to be an utter dolt to not figure it out when Jon tells him shortly afterward , atop the wall,

“Through Eastwatch. We will bring in food by ship, as much as might be required. From the riverlands and the stormlands and the Vale of Arryn, from Dorne and the Reach, across the narrow sea from the Free Cities.”

When Bowen asks , “And this food will be paid for … how, if I may ask?” , this is not an honest question.. he's trying to get Jon to divulge the details of his agreement in front of others , notably Flint and Norrey , then try to make Jon look foolish by wailing about how can it be repaid ? ( He is trying to discredit Jon in front of them , also going so far as to accuse him of treason )

Jon knows Bowen will oppose him ,no matter what he says, and doesn't nibble. Jon himself has concerns about repayment.. but it's like the old question ...How do you make rabbit stew ?... First , you catch your rabbit.

So I think it's certain Bowen knows about the agreement , yet , when Jon speaks with Selyse in his last chapter , someone has still been filling her head with the idea that there is not / will not be enough food.

I have a few opinions about Mance too , but I'll have to come back. Life is calling me.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Hard Home was a good call. All the wights that those dead people would make? Jon himself points this out.

But there is a high likelihood that the rangers he sends out will also become Wights. The Watch needs bodies more than the Others do

[bemused]

^ ^ Not as high as it would have been previously. When Jon takes the new recruits out to swear their vows, even on such a short trip...

Jon sent Tom Barleycorn ahead to scout for them, though the way to the white grove

was oft trod and familiar. Big Liddle and Luke of Longtown slipped into the brush to east and west. They would flank the column to give warning of any approach. All were seasoned rangers, armed with obsidian as well as steel, warhorns slung across their saddles should they need to summon help.

..it's hard to imagine they wouldn't take similar precautions on the ranging, as well making provisions for fire arrows, etc ( Jon has had all NW taking mandatory daily archery practice )... and we saw the precautions taken by Tormund's people ... making sure all the dead were burned before they moved on. It's risky, but they wouldn't be unprepared ( unlike Mormont ) and at least on the way to HH , they wouldn't be encumbered with the old , very young and infirm.

Jon intends to send the NW with Tormund, but I think it's a safe bet that doesn't mean only NW.Half and half at best ,would probably be more like it , considering how few able bodied men the NW is down to. Most of those would probably be rangers , who for the most part have been more accepting of wildlings... at least recognizing their common humanity.. and most of whom seem to back Jon. So Tormund ought to be able to keep the force in line. We don't know what number Jon and Tormund settled on , but even at the highest number Jon mentioned to Leathers , 200 , that's a number worth risking compared to the potential gain.

Furthermore, I don't trust that Mel is correct in saying that all Jon's ships have been lost. She could be wrong ... and she would lie to keep Jon where she wants him. She's expended so much effort to get Jon to trust her , be grateful to her ... all in hopes of seducing him into helping her produce shadow babies ( draining his life force in the process ).These she would use to help Stannis and to go against what she sees as the agents of the Great Other. ... Of course there's the little problem that she sees Bran and Bloodraven as the great Other's champions , but that's a little side irony.

[Muggle]

I think it's very interesting that where Dany closes doors to save people, Jon opens doors to save people. In my mind, him trying to save the wildlings that were still on the worse side of the Wall is a practical move, as those tens of thousands of people could very well come knocking at the Wall later with their blue eyes shining in the moon light. So no, I don't agree that the Hardhome rescue operation was a blunder on his side.

As to not killing that old man as the wildlings requested - would you really expect a son of Eddard Stark to behead an innocent man?

There's no excusing Jon getting involved in Mance's Arya mission, that's something I think he should have never taken part of. Or, I feel Mel should have gone forth with the plan, and told Jon afterwards, so that he would not have needed to be in such a difficult situation. But it could be very well that Mel did it on purpose.

I feel Jon's biggest mistake as a Lord Commander was to keep too much of his thoughts to himself. Yes, he was sick to death of hearing Marsh and co. never agreeing with him, but I do think he should have presented his case to others in more detail, to make his brothers understand the logic behind his decision-making.

ETA: And oh, Jon becoming a king - I don't really give a damn - if it happens, it happens. :)

........

Jon decides to send a huge force on a ranging mission. Every single ranging has failed. Horribly. Jon then decides to send another force to siege Winterfell. Not once taking into consideration the biggest threat of them all. The others. Who is left to defend the wall?

Jon muses about sending a thousand warriors to Hardhome. This story has told us several time that 1 man on a wall is worth 10 on the ground. And if that wall is 700 feet high its more like 1 man is worth 50. Jon sending a force of 1000 men who potentially are an accumulative 50,000 in strength. To save the 6k at Hardhome who most are women and children.

Easily not worth it.

Jon is a Hero at hart not a Ruler. He will do anything to protect the innocent even if that means damning all of humanity to a frozen zombie death.

Im really glad Jon has died. And is going to spend time in ghost. Wolves dont care about the innocent. Perhaps some of this will rub off on Jon and he will be a better ruler because atm he is pretty bad. Undoing all the good things with his desire to protect innocent people.