Jon's mistakes - and why he shouldn't be King

[RK Rajagopal]

I'm not sure what being reluctant to sign a paper shield has to do with whether he considered the possibility of a Bolton victory. He might have considered it and decided that his problems with the Thenns and the rest of the Wildlings took precedent over the eventual possibility that the Boltons would kill Stannis. Jon's view seems to be that he needs to fix pressing problems first and deal with the consequences later. For instance, he's not certain that the Watch will ever be capable of paying back the loan he's taking out with the Iron Bank... but, when faced with starvation, it's better to borrow now and deal with the debt after winter has passed. Likewise, the Bolton's victory is a possibility, but settling the gift, manning the Wall, and forging a peace with the Wildlings are all more pressing concerns. If Bolton wins, then yes, there might be problems if he weds Alys to Styr... but there still would likely be problems even if he didn't because the Lannisters have it out for him and you can bet that the Boltons do as well. After all, Jon is the person best suited to identify whether "Arya" is real or not. Is it really in Ramsay's best interest to let Jon Snow live? Not bloody likely.

I agree. He was probably screwed no matter what, in case of a Bolton victory.

[Dicer]

Let's assume the Mance mission hasn't happened. For now, they didn't care. Don't you think they will eventually take Karhold from the wildlings? What will happen to Jon then?

But the Mance mission happened. Jon had already send Mance and his team to Winterfell to extract Arya before the wedding. Why the hell should he be worried about how the Boltons would react to Alys having a wedding when there's bigger fish to fry here. If there should be problems here it should be from Mance's undercover operation.

And you expect too much of Jon. He is not superman. He is a 17 year old Lord commander. He can't see into the future and plan that ahead. You want him to sit and look at all the possibilities and what he should do if Stannis wins, if Bolton wins, if Boltons attack Karhold, if Stannis attack Karhold, if Lannisters attack the wall, how to integrate Wildlings with the North, how to deal with North-Wildling enemity, how to deal with NW resentment towards the Wildlings, how to deal with Selyse and Queen's men and maintain neutrality etc.

He has to make some decisions and whichever way he chooses, he loses something. By Alys' marriage he makes an effort to link Wildlings to the North. The repercussions could be that he angers the Boltons. He gains something, he loses something. And as we saw he did even lose anything because the Boltons did not care.

[Queen‍‍‍‍‍‍ Alysanne‍‍™]

Fanyboy(girl)ism.

Its rather sad :frown5:

[Addam of Hull]

But the Mance mission happened. Jon had already send Mance and his team to Winterfell to extract Arya before the wedding. Why the hell should he be worried about how the Boltons would react to Alys having a wedding when there's bigger fish to fry here. If there should be problems here it should be from Mance's undercover operation.

And you expect too much of Jon. He is not superman. He is a 17 year old Lord commander. He can't see into the future and plan that ahead. You want him to sit and look at all the possibilities and what he should do if Stannis wins, if Bolton wins, if Boltons attack Karhold, if Stannis attack Karhold, if Lannisters attack the wall, how to integrate Wildlings with the North, how to deal with North-Wildling enemity, how to deal with NW resentment towards the Wildlings, how to deal with Selyse and Queen's men and maintain neutrality etc.

He has to make some decisions and whichever way he chooses, he loses something. By Alys' marriage he makes an effort to link Wildlings to the North. The repercussions could be that he angers the Boltons. He gains something, he loses something. And as we saw he did even lose anything because the Boltons did not care.

I want to correct something. I don't think Jon knowingly sent Mance to Winterfell. The specific vision that Melisandre has is of a grey girl on horseback. She isn't inside of a castle and when Mel and Mance discuss it, he thinks that she's near Long Lake, riding off of the Kingsroad. We don't really see much discussion of the mission itself beyond that, certainly not from Jon's perspective, but unless I'm missing something, it seems likely to me that Jon sent Mance out to meet "Arya" and escort her back to Castle Black.

[jet199]

Well, I think Jon's still learning. I think most of the main characters are going to under go huge change over the next two books so I don't think you can write Jon off as useless when actually he has learnt a lot so far and is moving into the place where he actually has to decide what he wants to do rather than just go along with being a good watch member or a good son of Ned Stark. This is where he should be at this point in the story. Most stories have heroes who try to get what they want using same tactics over and over, with some good and some bad results, until they really get in the shit and realise that there is a better way of doing things. I have a feeling a lot of people are going to be upset when Jon goes off in a different direction but the point of the ides of Marsh was to show Jon cannot continue on the course he has plotted for himself of being the good guy.

On Alys Karstark, I think it's interesting Jon makes the point that Arnolf Karstark has no right to make marriage pacts. It's as if GRRM is saying "look, there is someone else here who shouldn't be making marriage pacts".

Mance definitely went AWOL but that was always the risk.

[Dicer]

I want to correct something. I don't think Jon knowingly sent Mance to Winterfell. The specific vision that Melisandre has is of a grey girl on horseback. She isn't inside of a castle and when Mel and Mance discuss it, he thinks that she's near Long Lake, riding off of the Kingsroad. We don't really see much discussion of the mission itself beyond that, certainly not from Jon's perspective, but unless I'm missing something, it seems likely to me that Jon sent Mance out to meet "Arya" and escort her back to Castle Black.

My mistake. You are right. It's only after Alys gets there that Jon realizes that the girl on horseback was not Arya. So I guess Mance made the decision to go to Winterfell himself.

[Iona]

Who sent the wildling army to take it in the first place? What happened to Lord Whatshisname who was supposed to marry Alys? I don't think the Boltons are idiots - it was obvious Jon had a hand in this. If they win, they will have Jon's head for this.

Alys was supposed to marry Daryn Hornwood, but he was killed by Jamie Lannister in Whispering Woods. Then the bad Karstarks decided she should marry her cousin so they could take over Karhold instead of Alys' brother, who was being held captive.

People have asked about what Jon might have done differently, and I got to thinking - I'll give you some ammo here...

Jon was expecting that the girl on a dying horse running away from her marriage was Arya (Mel's fault/his high hopes), but even if it wasn't her I'd say that Jon was well within his rights to offer Alys the hospitality of Castle Black.

BUT, what I got to thinking was that IF there was time (checked it, there was, Cregan came a day later), Jon should have requested Selyse's help in capturing the Karstarks that came hunting after Alys. She's the queen after all, and has some knights with her that are sworn to protect young maidens. Karstarks are sworn to Stannis officially, so the queen would have been well within her rights to solve the matter. So at that point Jon could have handed over the situation to Selyse and sat back.

Though I have my doubts on Selyse. I think the Movember queen would have botched the whole thing and made Alys marry her cousin, and we'd be here discussing how hopeless Jon was as a leader for not saving poor Alys...

[Ygrain]

My mistake. You are right. It's only after Alys gets there that Jon realizes that the girl on horseback was not Arya. So I guess Mance made the decision to go to Winterfell himself.

True enough. So, guess what? Jon is getting flak for something he didn't do.

[WeirwoodTreeHugger]

The Good Queen Alysanne, on 30 Nov 2013 - 2:45 PM, said:

GRRM's reason of showing ruling through Dany, Jon, Cersei and Tyrion wasn't for competition purposes.

It was to show the difficulty of ruling and the different problems a leader must face.

I don't get why these threads always turn into competitions of who is the better ruler Jon vs Stannis vs Dany vs Tyrion etc.

Ruling doesn't work that way.

Edit: Its only a competition if both people had the same resources in the same regions and were in the same situations, that is clearly not the case in this story.

Thank you! :bowdown:

I don't know why this is so difficult for people to grasp.

I'm not going to rehash the pros and cons because it's been done exhaustively. What is clear is that his choices regarding HH, relations with Stannis, protecting Alys and marrying her off and the reaction to the explicit threat in the pink letter are all damned if you, damned if you don't situations. Jon could have made the exact opposite decisions and still had some undesirable outcomes.

I would agree that Jon's major flaw is his lack of ability to schmooze with his NW people once he got the LC position. The reason he got elected in the first place is because he did show leadership qualities. There's no reason to believe he is unable to fix this mistake.

What the OP and those that him/her haven't done is convince the rest of us that Jon's decisions have made him unqualified to be king relative to other characters. The other characters have flaws and have made mistakes too. If you are so convinced that Jon is uniquely unsuited to being king, make a better argument than "Jon made a choice I disagree with."

For example Tyrion. He did an excellent job as hand, even holding his own against Varys and LF. He put together a great strategy for the battle of Blackwater. Does that mean he could be king? No.

First of all, he doesn't have a claim. Robert got the IT by conquest, but he still clung to his Targ ancestry to make the case he should get to be king. Tyrion's got nothing.

Secondly, Westeros is narrow minded and bigoted. Tyrion is a dwarf and people hate him for it. That isn't right, but it is reality.

Thirdly, he is a convicted kingslayer and he is a kinslayer. How is he possibly going to be able to rally enough support? The best he can hope for is queen Daenerys hand. Hand is the job he is most suited for IMO.

[Ludd]

This whole Jon made mistakes stuff is weird and in may view morally ambiguous (on the part of the posters):

1. Killing the Old Man would have been a breach of everything Jon had been taught. He would have been a deserter in truth not just as an attempt to gain trust. Jon would have been a wilding. He could never go back to Castle Black.

2. Helping Hardholm was the right and sensible thing to do and also consistent with the role of the NW to protect men.

3. Letting the wildings through was far sighted and wise. Jon did not need millions of blue eyed wights attacking him. He also needed the wall forts staffed. He also realised that this was the purpose of the NW - no killing wildings which was a distortion of the purpose of the NW.

4. Sending Mance to get Arya was wise - It did not involve the watch directly and was barely meddling in the affairs of the realm - It was not a full scale attack.

5. Giving Stannis the NW was something over which he had little choice. Stannis would have taken over the whole wall if Jon had not made concessions.

6. Now marrying Alysa Karstark to a Then was perhaps starting to meddle in affairs of state, challenging the CONVENTION NOT VOW to keep out of politics. However the girl had asked for help and most LC would have provided some sort of assistance.

7. Advising Stannis about how to get clansmen on side was starting to get over the line of intervention , but recall that of the five Kings asked to help the WALL ONLY Stannis replied. In this case defending the wall and helping Stannis pretty much are one and the same.

8. Now to the last and possibly the most "interventionist" act Jon has taken. Firstly recall HE HAS NOT YET TAKEN IT. Jon was stabbed before he left Castle Black and therefore is in the same position he was when he ran to join Robb, but was saved by Sam (and ghost). I have a suspicion (Not a theory just an idea) that Jon was "stabbed" by order of Maester Aemon (or LC Mormant) to prevent just such an eventuality. Jon was young and it was known how strong his family ties are. The stewards were scared before the letter from Bolton was even opened. We know NOTHING of Bowen Marsh - why did he join the watch. Was he a Targ loyalist or is he from the Neck and close to Howland Reed (his name suggests he is from the Neck).

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Go ahead. I've been wondering if some people here have read the same books as I have. Jon doesn't see the big picture? Really? So who is seeing a bigger picture then? Marsh? Mel? Selyse? Stannis? Dany? All of them seem more short sighted to me.

If you are still interested it's here.

[Ludd]

Just looked up something

Do you realise that Bowen Marsh is the ONLY person from the Neck we have EVER met in the series, other than Jojen and Meera. I think this matters BIG TIME

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Just looked up something

Do you realise that Bowen Marsh is the ONLY person from the Neck we have EVER met in the series, other than Jojen and Meera. I think this matters BIG TIME

I had this crazy crackpot theory that Bowen had a secret mission from Howland. :ph34r:

[Ramsay Gimp]

Jon admirably looks at the big picture and sees that the Watch will have to adapt to the new threat from beyond the Wall. His problems are in communication and the nitty-gritty of politics

I agree that the Hardhome expedition was a recipe for disaster - did he not learn from the last great ranging, led by Mormont?

[Ramsay Gimp]

This whole Jon made mistakes stuff is weird and in may view morally ambiguous (on the part of the posters):

1. Killing the Old Man would have been a breach of everything Jon had been taught. He would have been a deserter in truth not just as an attempt to gain trust. Jon would have been a wilding. He could never go back to Castle Black.

2. Helping Hardholm was the right and sensible thing to do and also consistent with the role of the NW to protect men.

3. Letting the wildings through was far sighted and wise. Jon did not need millions of blue eyed wights attacking him. He also needed the wall forts staffed. He also realised that this was the purpose of the NW - no killing wildings which was a distortion of the purpose of the NW.

4. Sending Mance to get Arya was wise - It did not involve the watch directly and was barely meddling in the affairs of the realm - It was not a full scale attack.

5. Giving Stannis the NW was something over which he had little choice. Stannis would have taken over the whole wall if Jon had not made concessions.

6. Now marrying Alysa Karstark to a Then was perhaps starting to meddle in affairs of state, challenging the CONVENTION NOT VOW to keep out of politics. However the girl had asked for help and most LC would have provided some sort of assistance.

7. Advising Stannis about how to get clansmen on side was starting to get over the line of intervention , but recall that of the five Kings asked to help the WALL ONLY Stannis replied. In this case defending the wall and helping Stannis pretty much are one and the same.

8. Now to the last and possibly the most "interventionist" act Jon has taken. Firstly recall HE HAS NOT YET TAKEN IT. Jon was stabbed before he left Castle Black and therefore is in the same position he was when he ran to join Robb, but was saved by Sam (and ghost). I have a suspicion (Not a theory just an idea) that Jon was "stabbed" by order of Maester Aemon (or LC Mormant) to prevent just such an eventuality. Jon was young and it was known how strong his family ties are. The stewards were scared before the letter from Bolton was even opened. We know NOTHING of Bowen Marsh - why did he join the watch. Was he a Targ loyalist or is he from the Neck and close to Howland Reed (his name suggests he is from the Neck).

This reminds me of the "Robb didn't do anything wrong!" posts. As if the assassinations of these leaders just came out of nowhere for no reason

[Cubicz]

Jon admirably looks at the big picture and sees that the Watch will have to adapt to the new threat from beyond the Wall. His problems are in communication and the nitty-gritty of politics

I agree that the Hardhome expedition was a recipe for disaster - did he not learn from the last great ranging, led by Mormont?

All this discussion about Jon's leadership will be for nothing if (and probably WHEN) the wall falls. It's chekhov's gun. If theres a wall, it has to fall.

If the Others ill make it south of the wall, it resets all the pieces. What Jon did beforehand will only matter to anyone who survives the Others and Jon... assuming he comes back as a good guy, and not the Great Other :)

[AemonEightstrings]

Why are so many people on this thread justifying Jon's decision to go to Hardhome? At this point in the story, from all angles that looks like a huge blunder, with little to no positive impact what so ever. It's cool if you like the character but why just blindly follow everything he does, wrong or right, like a bleating sheep?

It takes the humanity away from the character for everything he does to be right or just. Characters aren't written that way in Asoiaf and people aren't like that in the real world. How many of your favorite characters does GRRM have to kill off before his readers realize this isn't crappy, predictable, hero fiction. Bad guys win most of the time and every character has major flaws.

To address the OP's question, I do agree that both of those decisions were mistakes on Jon Snow's part, however he has proven to be a very pragmatic, strong, just, and capable leader of the NW in a tumultuous time. He'd be a good king but I doubt he'll get the chance as the realm is torn and deteriorating and a winter as cold as this one won't allow much mending or rebuilding. I can't see any King or any one character standing in the way of all that inevitable death and starvation.

[Iona]

Why are so many people on this thread justifying Jon's decision to go to Hardhome? At this point in the story, from all angles that looks like a huge blunder, with little to no positive impact what so ever.

You seem to have read the thread, I think both sides have made arguments on the matter that should at least to some degree answer your question.

It's cool if you like the character but why just blindly follow everything he does, wrong or right, like a bleating sheep?

It takes the humanity away from the character for everything he does to be right or just. Characters aren't written that way in Asoiaf and people aren't like that in the real world. How many of your favorite characters does GRRM have to kill off before his readers realize this isn't crappy, predictable, hero fiction. Bad guys win most of the time and every character has major flaws.

That's a bit unfair thing to say, especially the bleating sheep part. Plenty of people who are more inclined to side with Jon can still readily admit that not all his choices are good, as seen in this thread. I'm very proud of the many posters who have taken part in this discussion and have acknowledged that Jon is by no means one of those predictable fiction heroes.

To address the OP's question, I do agree that both of those decisions were mistakes on Jon Snow's part, however he has proven to be a very pragmatic, strong, just, and capable leader of the NW in a tumultuous time. He'd be a good king but I doubt he'll get the chance as the realm is torn and deteriorating and a winter as cold as this one won't allow much mending or rebuilding. I can't see any King or any one character standing in the way of all that inevitable death and starvation.

[Nictarion]

GRRM's reason of showing ruling through Dany, Jon, Cersei and Tyrion wasn't for competition purposes.

It was to show the difficulty of ruling and the different problems a leader must face.

I don't get why these threads always turn into competitions of who is the better ruler Jon vs Stannis vs Dany vs Tyrion etc.

Ruling doesn't work that way.

Edit: Its only a competition if both people had the same resources in the same regions and were in the same situations, that is clearly not the case in this story.

This. So much!

[AemonEightstrings]

And I would agree with those posters, just not the one's who blindly follow or back up all of Jon's decisions without admitting to his flaws and mistakes because they have a certain sense of sentimentality towards him. A lot of posters are trying to make a legitimate argument about the positive impacts of Hardhome, when their simply aren't any to be seen at this point. When Tyrion was schooling Jon Snow on their way to the wall he said "Most men would rather deny a hard truth than face it." Belligerent Jon fans should face the hard truth that he's a human being, who does on occasion make mistakes.

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