Aegon is real v2

[OnionAhaiReborn]

That's complete nonsense.

Robb thinks he's Ned's son. Every character who knows him thinks he's Ned's son, or says so. Were you to come up with a theory that Robb is in fact Roose Bolton's son, I wouldn't need to search the text for clues that Rob is Ned's son to make up a "theory". I wouldn't need a theory. Disproving yours would be sufficient proof that he is, in fact, Ned's son.

And that works no matter how much evidence you believe you have, or how mysterious the circumstances. For example, disproving R+L=J would be more than enough evidence that Jon is Ned's bastard, until a more compelling theory cropped up.

Actually, no, disproving 'Robb is Roose's son' would not be sufficient proof that Robb is Eddard's son. But proving 'Robb is Eddard's son,' which could quite easily be proved by appeal to Ned and Catelyn's inner thoughts on the subject, would disprove 'Robb is Roose's son.'

[Ragnorak]

That's complete nonsense.

Robb thinks he's Ned's son. Every character who knows him thinks he's Ned's son, or says so. Were you to come up with a theory that Robb is in fact Roose Bolton's son, I wouldn't need to search the text for clues that Rob is Ned's son to make up a "theory". I wouldn't need a theory. Disproving yours would be sufficient proof that he is, in fact, Ned's son.

And that works no matter how much evidence you believe you have, or how mysterious the circumstances. For example, disproving R+L=J would be more than enough evidence that Jon is Ned's bastard, until a more compelling theory cropped up.

Yes, I completely agree. How silly of me. A thread called "Aegon is Real" clearly ought to contain absolutely nothing about Aegon being real and should only be about Aegon not being a Blackfyre but should never have a thread title of "Aegon is not a Blackfyre."

Aegon's identity is not a binary equation. It is not Real or Blackfyre. Proving Aegon is not a Blackfyre does absolutely nothing to prove that he is the authentic son of Rhaegar.

[Facebookless Man]

Actually, no, disproving 'Robb is Roose's son' would not be sufficient proof that Robb is Eddard's son.

Of course it would. You can pretend that everything must be doubted, always, even in the absence of any reasons to doubt, but that's not how telling a story works.

Are we then not quite sure that, say, Quentyn is Doran's son, because we don't get an Ellaria Sand POV confirming it?

[Lummel]

... until a more compelling theory cropped up.

But that is precisely the point. The theory that Aegon is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen is not compelling - it doesn't work to explain what see happen in the books. All the fake Aegon theories better account for Varys and Illyrio's behaviour and plans than Aegon being Rhaegar's son. As a theory legitimism makes no sense, even if one swallows the Pisswater Bend story as theoretically possible if highly unlikely within the framework of the story.

It is rather, to use your analogy, as if Robb believed he was The Ned's son, but looked completely different, acted completely differently and there were clear hints that The Ned could only have been Robb's father if he had sent his sperm on ice by ravenmail to Catelyn.

If one could disprove that L+R=J that would not imply that Jon was The Ned's bastard, that could only be the case if The Ned's bastard was the stronger, or strongest theory not disproved.

Disproving Blackfyrism does not make Aegon an iota more legitimate because the argument for legitimacy is inherently unlikely given what we know from the books so far. That's the problem. The fake theories arise and survive because they explain the information we have from the books in a more convincing way than the legitimist approach.

[FC_Lymond]

I don't agree with that at all.

No one has ever come up with a compelling reason for Illyrio raising the kid (if he's a Blackfyre) as a fake Aegon in secret. This has been brought up many times and ignored by proponents of the BL theory over and over.

If he's a Blackfyre, he easily could have been raised as one with a Blackfyre supporter as his tutor.

There have been many characters in the series in disguise, playing other roles. None of them has been as circuitous as the Aegon as Blackfyre theory supposes.

[Facebookless Man]

I was under the impression this was about fAegon theories in general, not just the BF one. Of course, my argument implies ALL opposing theories should be shown to be false.

[Mladen]

Are we then not quite sure that, say, Quentyn is Doran's son, because we don't get an Ellaria Sand POV confirming it?

How in God's name Ellaria would know that Quentyn is undoubtedly Doran's son? It is not like she has gave birth to him ;)

[Chatty Duelist]

Disproving Blackfyrism does not make Aegon an iota more legitimate because the argument for legitimacy is inherently unlikely given what we know from the books so far. That's the problem. The fake theories arise and survive because they explain the information we have from the books in a more convincing way than the legitimist approach.

It does. The legitimist approach is the default position; Blackfyrism is the attempt to disprove the legitimists. Blackfyrism is disproven. The position default back into Legitimacy.

How in God's name Ellaria would know that Quentyn is undoubtedly Doran's son? It is not like she has gave birth to him ;)

Why? Was there a PoV where she confirms she had sex with Doran? And what if the Doran she had sex with was a actually Arthur Dayne in disguise? It's not like they do it in the opein in full daylight. It could be possible.

[Mladen]

No one has ever come up with a compelling reason for Illyrio raising the kid (if he's a Blackfyre) as a fake Aegon in secret. This has been brought up many times and ignored by proponents of the BL theory over and over.

That's not truth. There is a lot of talk Illyrio might have been the boy's father.

[Mladen]

It does. The legitimist approach is the default position; Blackfyrism is the attempt to disprove the legitimists. Blackfyrism is disproven. The position default back into Legitimacy.

No, actually, because the boy can be just fake, taken from some whorehouse in Lys. So, as Rag said, it isn't binary equation. So it is not one or the other. there is also a third road.

[Facebookless Man]

If one could disprove that L+R=J that would not imply that Jon was The Ned's bastard, that could only be the case if The Ned's bastard was the stronger, or strongest theory not disproved.

Nope, because "Jon is Ned's bastard" does not need to be a theory. If there is no reason to believe Ned is lying, or if any such reasons are rejected as misguided, then the default position is to believe him.

That's how telling a coherent story is even possible.

[raegal_targaryen]

So the was that Brandon lashed out "Come out and die" is less hot tempered that FAegon throwing away the table?

Not to mention that as far as we have seen, Jon has many more "waking the dragon" moments that FAegon.

But anyway, to say that because FAegon threw the table and Tyrion, who btw knows only the stories written by maesters who can't been trusted all the time, about the Targs and has never met one, commented that he might be a Targ is at least, and this is me putting it nicely, silly.

its a little diffrent one who thought his sister was kidnapped other was insulted and u compare that, are do u have any logic at all if somebody kidnapped my sister ofc i freaking last out i would have completely gone ballistic not the same thing sister, theres a reason jon has had many more waking the dragon moments his been there from the start, aegon hasnt. learn how make logic assessement.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Of course it would. You can pretend that everything must be doubted, always, even in the absence of any reasons to doubt, but that's not how telling a story works.

Are we then not quite sure that, say, Quentyn is Doran's son, because we don't get an Ellaria Sand POV confirming it?

First, it isn't about doubting everything always, it's about your faulty logic. It simply is not the case, logically, that disproving X proves Y, unless X and Y are the only options. And it is almost never the case that there are only two options. It is certainly not so in this case, where fAegon could be real, a Blackfyre, a Brightflame, a something else, or a nobody.

Second, you're wobbling considerably. This isn't a case, as with Robb or Quentyn, where we have considerable reason to believe their parents are who they believe them to be on face value- and we have plenty of reason to believe this is the case for both of them. The reason it isn't discussed is precisely because there is so little reason to doubt them. Thus doubts don't tend to rise on the subject of their parentage, and if anyone did raise doubts proof would be immediately offered in favor of their usually understood parentage.

Finally, fAegon shows up and we have literally no way of knowing if he is real or fake. In the absence of any evidence either way, careful readers search for clues one way or another. How anyone can have read fAegon's introduction and assumed some kind of legitimizing force from his very existence is beyond me, particularly considering that Tyrion himself suggests doubts about his authenticity almost immediately. In fact, a rather more extreme standard of doubt is applied to the Blackfyre theory than to the theory that he is real, the 'legitimate stance' has yet to provide any evidence whatsoever beyond the word of Varys. Varys, FFS!

[Facebookless Man]

How in God's name Ellaria would know that Quentyn is undoubtedly Doran's son? It is not like she has gave birth to him ;)

oh lol, brainfarted

Mellario...

[finger]

Aegon had to be hidden for Bittersteel? Bittersteel is a long time death. Remember?

What? What are you trying to say here? That Lysono Maar is Aegon? If Aegon wasn't at KL, then where was he? Tell me that.

It seems you misunderstood me. When fAegon was a child, he was known by Varys-Illyrio and Bittersteel, who was the GC's general. They signed a pact. JC and Haldon were in the GC at the time.

As for the rest, I'd suggest you to read what is wrtitten and think before writing.

Lysono Maar is Lysono Maar, as far as I know, and he looks like Viserys. Period. Everyone is allowed to guess.

I'm not sure where Aegon was when the sack, but I'd bet my money he was still at ToJ. Again, that's another story, off topic, as I told.

[Ser Leftwich]

It does. The legitimist approach is the default position; Blackfyrism is the attempt to disprove the legitimists. Blackfyrism is disproven. The position default back into Legitimacy.

The default of legitimate is a false assumption.

option A = Rhaegar +Elia = Aegon

option B = Illyrio + Serra = fAegon Blackfyre

option C = ??? + ???? = fAegon

[Facebookless Man]

How anyone can have read fAegon's introduction and assumed some kind of legitimizing force from his very existence is beyond me

I'm pretty sure every reader's reaction is to doubt him immediately. It certainly was mine.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

FAegon could be a Blackfyre, a Brightflame, a random Valyrian blood child... So many possibilities, so many proofs that he simply is fake.

its a little diffrent one who thought his sister was kidnapped other was insulted and u compare that, are do u have any logic at all if somebody kidnapped my sister ofc i freaking last out i would have completely gone ballistic not the same thing sister, theres a reason jon has had many more waking the dragon moments his been there from the start, aegon hasnt. learn how make logic assessement.

So do you really claim that the fact that FAegon threw away a table after he lost at a game, is a proof that he is a Targ?

Lyanna had lashing out moments, GreatJon, Walder, Tywin, Oberyn, Sand snakes had also lashing out moments. Are they Targaryen?

[OnionAhaiReborn]

I'm pretty sure every reader's reaction is to doubt him immediately. It certainly was mine.

Ok, good. Me too. So how, then, did you end up coming to the conclusion that him being real is the 'default position'?

[Ser Leftwich]

It seems you misunderstood me. When fAegon was a child, he was known by Varys-Illyrio and Bittersteel, who was the GC's general. They signed a pact. JC and Haldon were in the GC at the time.

As for the rest, I'd suggest you to read what is wrtitten and think before writing.

Lysono Maar is Lysono Maar, as far as I know, and he looks like Viserys. Period. Everyone is allowed to guess.

I'm not sure where Aegon was when the sack, but I'd bet my money he was still at ToJ. Again, that's another story, off topic, as I told.

Again, you got it wrong, Bittersteel was dead. You mean Ser Myles Toyne, Blackheart.

(Bad form to suggest re-reading to others in the same post you get basic facts wrong.)