Aegon is real v2

[Ser Leftwich]

What do the people who will find Kevan have to do with the things that are being said to Kevan right before he get's killed? It's not like Varys' words will float in the air for several hours after.

The scene that Varys has set: Pycelle and Kevan dead by crossbow. Varys is always deliberate in his actions. Possibly trying to implicate Tyrion, which is a little out there. And even more speculative that the stab wounds were from a short and/or weak person (not sure how good forensics are in KL) also potentially implicating Tyrion.

yes, there's the little birds, but I cautiously posit that there's someone else there who was intended to hear this exposition. If you look at the full passage, it's pretty much a political address advocating for Enlightened Monarchism. I am not sure who this might have been intended for; Qyburn has replaced Varys and we know he knows of the secret passages, so he'd be an easy guess, especially if there's someone other than Cersei he's reporting to (personally, I believe he sends reports to Roose as well, but I'd hazard the guess there's a third party Varys is trying to get this political address to.)

I always took Qyburn's taking over the spy network as the more obvious spies; servants and whores in the city that came to Qyburn for money, saying "I worked for Varys, here is a tidbit." But there is no reason to believe the LittleBirds wouldn't jsut work for whomever.

But Varys could be speaking to Qyburn through the little birds. How much does Varys trust the Little Birds? Are they saying what Varys wants to Qyburn? Why then give the speech? If Varys does not trust them, why arm them to finish off Kevan?

Something is fishy about the Epilogue. I am almost afraid to speculate when Varys is involved.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

The scene that Varys has set: Pycelle and Kevan dead by crossbow. Varys is always deliberate in his actions. Possibly trying to implicate Tyrion, which is a little out there. And even more speculative that the stab wounds were from a short and/or weak person (not sure how good forensics are in KL) also potentially implicating Tyrion.

I always took Qyburn's taking over the spy network as the more obvious spies; servants and whores in the city that came to Qyburn for money, saying "I worked for Varys, here is a tidbit." But there is no reason to believe the LittleBirds wouldn't jsut work for whomever.

But Varys could be speaking to Qyburn through the little birds. How much does Varys trust the Little Birds? Are they saying what Varys wants to Qyburn? Why then give the speech? If Varys does not trust them, why arm them to finish off Kevan?

Something is fishy about the Epilogue. I am almost afraid to speculate when Varys is involved.

Actually, only Kevan died by crossbow. Pycelle had his head bashed in.

Implicating Tyrion would work, since Cersei would become suspicious, With both Kevan and Pycelle death, the Tyrells hold the majority on the Small Council, so she would obviously suspect them as well. The Tyrells will suspect Cersei, since with Kevan death, she might believe she'd have a chance to gain power again. And, as Varys put's it "someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen". The involvement of Tyrion is only to raise Cersei's suspisions.

[Ragnorak]

For those who want to see a case made for Aegon as a Blackfyre I made one here.

It has citations from the text and posits a motivation for Varys that can explain his actions in a consistent way including why he came to Kings Landing to begin with, what he did under Aerys, and what he's done over the course of the series.

There is other support not mentioned like the parallels between Varys and Bloodraven given Bloodraven's role in the Blackfyre rebellions.

This thread is called Aegon is Real. What I would expect to see in this thread is evidence supporting Aegon being real given the chosen title.

One of my earliest speculations was that Varys was, station-wise, a nobody. I pondered the idea that a lowborn slave who had been castrated was plotting to put a random lowborn nobody onto a hereditary throne. It was a fun notion to play with but I quickly abandoned the idea because there isn't really much evidence for it and an ample amount against it. It could be true though. No one can categorically 100% prove it wrong. That doesn't in any way amount to any kind of positive support for its credibility. I could obstinately argue that alternative ideas fail to meet some perfect standard of evidence that I would refuse to apply to my own idea. That wouldn't do anything to make my own theory more believable or more likely to be true. To do that I would need to make a case grounded in the text that could stand on its own. That case is not being made for a real Aegon. The "evidence" being set forth is not evidence or proof. The reasoning is all "not impossible" or anti-alternative and not pro-authentic Aegon. All of it could easily apply to any theory about Aegon that can't be 100% impossible (and some of it wouldn't be dissuaded by the 100% impossible angle.)

There are plenty of theories on this forum. Any of them, even the discredited ones, can offer a template on how to make a positive case for an idea.

Hint-- anyone in Westeros alive in the False Spring and remotely capable of jousting could be the Knight of the Laughing Tree. Could be and not impossible do not make for a theory.

PS: Hey, if you like the real Aegon idea and it is dear to your heart despite not having a citation to prove it, God bless you! Glad the books have brought you joy. Please admit that you like it and lack a citation and then move on to why you like the idea because that might be something worth sharing-- the fProof is not (at least the 19th time around in the same thread.)

[Jon's Queen Consort]

This thread is called Aegon is Real. What I would expect to see in this thread is evidence supporting Aegon being real given the chosen title.

<snip>

PS: Hey, if you like the real Aegon idea and it is dear to your heart despite not having a citation to prove it, God bless you! Glad the books have brought you joy. Please admit that you like it and lack a citation and then move on to why you like the idea because that might be something worth sharing-- the fProof is not (at least the 19th time around in the same thread.)

:agree: 1000% with what you said. There is no, solid, evidence in this thread... Varys said that Aegon is coming but he never said which Aegon, Kevan thought that he means Rhaegar's son. Tyrion said that because FAegon was hot tempered he has to be a Targaryen, which is simply silly, to put it nicely. Targaryens aren't the only hot tempered family in the series. By the logic hot tempered =Targaryen then Brandon, Arya and Lyanna are Targaryen too.

It's a pity.

[Ser Leftwich]

Actually, only Kevan died by crossbow. Pycelle had his head bashed in.

Implicating Tyrion would work, since Cersei would become suspicious, With both Kevan and Pycelle death, the Tyrells hold the majority on the Small Council, so she would obviously suspect them as well. The Tyrells will suspect Cersei, since with Kevan death, she might believe she'd have a chance to gain power again. And, as Varys put's it "someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen". The involvement of Tyrion is only to raise Cersei's suspisions.

Pycelle does have a serious head wound. (My bad. Though he might also have a quarrel in his belly, that is not important.)

You just made me think of an interesting parallel of Pycelle with the head wound, like the baby killed in the sack and Kevan being stabbed repeatedly (presuming the half dozen Little Birds stabbed him more than once each) like the toddler, Rhaenys.

[butterbumps!]

I always took Qyburn's taking over the spy network as the more obvious spies; servants and whores in the city that came to Qyburn for money, saying "I worked for Varys, here is a tidbit." But there is no reason to believe the LittleBirds wouldn't jsut work for whomever.

But Varys could be speaking to Qyburn through the little birds. How much does Varys trust the Little Birds? Are they saying what Varys wants to Qyburn? Why then give the speech? If Varys does not trust them, why arm them to finish off Kevan?

Something is fishy about the Epilogue. I am almost afraid to speculate when Varys is involved.

oh, I actually agree with you on the issue of the mute kids. We know Qyburn is tapping into the broader spy network, but I'm not necessarily thinking the birds report back to Qyburn. The walls still have ears, was my only point; birds, Qyburn, Qyburn's spies, god only knows what other spies, etc.

I think the issue-- that we know there's spies everywhere-- takes the wind out of the "Varys would only speak truth to a dying man" argument; whether Aegon is who Varys says he is or not, Varys has to keep up the ruse no matter what because in the Red Keep, there's always ears.

What strikes me as the strangest part of the Epilogue keeps coming back to the fact that Varys' exposition says remarkably little about Aegon as Rhaegar's son. All he needed to say was that the true Targ heir was back to Kevan-- in Kevan's worldview, legitimacy is all he needs to hear to be convinced; instead, we get a massive exposition about Aegon's suitability to rule, without speaking to legitimacy at all. ETA: i.e. if concern for legitimacy was the true purpose, this is where Varys would recount his Pisswater Alley boy swap, Jon Con in hiding plan.

I know the fact that Varys doesn't correct Kevan's "He's dead," is usually taken as evidence of legitimacy, but the fact that Varys changes the conversation to one of competence and aptitude is where I think this conversation becomes really interesting. Because that's really the crux of this exposition-- Varys' interest is in creating an Enlightened Monarch, not the return of the king.

[Lummel]

... the fact that Varys changes the conversation to one of competence and aptitude is where I think this conversation becomes really interesting. Because that's really the crux of this exposition-- Varys' interest is in creating an Enlightened Monarch, not the return of the king.

Hmm, I don't know if Varys is interested in creating an Enlightened Monarch, but he certainly is interested in telling Kevan that this is what he has done, you know in spirit of you reminding us of Varys' riddle about power above. It's PR rather than reality.

[butterbumps!]

Hmm, I don't know if Varys is interested in creating an Enlightened Monarch, but he certainly is interested in telling Kevan that this is what he has done, you know in spirit of you reminding us of Varys' riddle about power above. It's PR rather than reality.

I'm using "Enlightened Monarch" as shorthand. The whole passage is about how Aegon has been trained in the principles of good governance and responsibility to his people as king, with remarkable omission of the swap explanation, and the fact that Aegon is suited for kingship simply because he's the legitimate heir.

[Ragnorak]

:agree: 1000% with what you said. There is no, solid, evidence in this thread... Varys said that Aegon is comming but he never said which Aegon, Kevan thought that he means Rhaegar's son. Tyrion said that because FAegon was hot tempered he has to be a Targaryen, which is simply silly, to put it nicely. Targaryens aren't the only hot tempered family in the series. By the logic hot tempered =Targaryen then Brandon, Arya and Lyanna are Targaryen too.

It's a pity.

I was very serious about the sharing of why someone finds the notion of a real Aegon compelling. Martin plays with sympathy and he most probably wanted this idea to be compelling for people who were more sympathetic to certain characters and less so to others. An individual reader's experience and reaction to plot revelations is something worth sharing and a positive contribution to discussions. The author seems to frequently play with the reader to try and create a want for something to be true or for an expectation to be fulfilled. This has the potential for an interesting discussion related to a real Aegon if the passion to insist he was real were channeled into explaining why he is wanted to be real.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Pycelle does have a serious head wound. (My bad. Though he might also have a quarrel in his belly, that is not important.)

You just made me think of an interesting parallel of Pycelle with the head wound, like the baby killed in the sack and Kevan being stabbed repeatedly (presuming the half dozen Little Birds stabbed him more than once each) like the toddler, Rhaenys.

That's actually a nice parallel indeed. I hadn't noticed that.

Would there be an Elia-parallel as well at some point in KL? Sounds painfull.

[Lummel]

Oh, yes Butterbumps! that is a very striking point. One would expect that if he had a legitimate Aegon that would be all he needed to say. He's a Targaryen, they are the legitimate rulers. You are quite right there is no need for all that stuff about what a super boy he is and his fantastic upbringing. For a legitimate heir the uninterpreted blood decent is sufficient in itself.

[finger]

Of course the mummer's dragon is a fake.

Why do I say so? Because I think this series is well written and its characters are meant to act out of some logic.

Should Varys-Illyrio have Rhaegar's son, why waving some other pretenders? Were they trying to upset the Golden Company? I'd say they weren't.

I suggest you to reread the chapter when Prince fAegon claims his rights before the GC. It's laden with interesting information. Justa a pill:

"Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

They were supposed to hide Aegon for everyone but Bittersteel, but they kept buggering about with the poorer relatives. Does it make sense? The fat man's clever if he's something. He's been a bravo, why should he behave as an old cunt?

Btw, a couple things. Aegon wasn't at Kl when the sack, but that's another story.

...with lilac eyes and white-gold hair and lips that would have been the envy of a whore. Not Viserys, a Lyseni named Lysono Maar.

[raegal_targaryen]

:agree: 1000% with what you said. There is no, solid, evidence in this thread... Varys said that Aegon is coming but he never said which Aegon, Kevan thought that he means Rhaegar's son. Tyrion said that because FAegon was hot tempered he has to be a Targaryen, which is simply silly, to put it nicely. Targaryens aren't the only hot tempered family in the series. By the logic hot tempered =Targaryen then Brandon, Arya and Lyanna are Targaryen too.

It's a pity.

its not just hot tempered its th way the targaryens lash out....

[Ser Leftwich]

They were supposed to hide Aegon for everyone but Bittersteel, but they kept buggering about with the poorer relatives. Does it make sense? The fat man's clever if he's something. He's been a bravo, why should he behave as an old cunt?

Btw, a couple things. Aegon wasn't at Kl when the sack, but that's another story.

...with lilac eyes and white-gold hair and lips that would have been the envy of a whore. Not Viserys, a Lyseni named Lysono Maar.

What are you trying to say?

[Jon's Queen Consort]

its not just hot tempered its th way the targaryens lash out....

So the was that Brandon lashed out "Come out and die" is less hot tempered that FAegon throwing away the table?

Not to mention that as far as we have seen, Jon has many more "waking the dragon" moments that FAegon.

But anyway, to say that because FAegon threw the table and Tyrion, who btw knows only the stories written by maesters who can't been trusted all the time, about the Targs and has never met one, commented that he might be a Targ is at least, and this is me putting it nicely, silly.

[Mladen]

I was very serious about the sharing of why someone finds the notion of a real Aegon compelling. Martin plays with sympathy and he most probably wanted this idea to be compelling for people who were more sympathetic to certain characters and less so to others. An individual reader's experience and reaction to plot revelations is something worth sharing and a positive contribution to discussions. The author seems to frequently play with the reader to try and create a want for something to be true or for an expectation to be fulfilled. This has the potential for an interesting discussion related to a real Aegon if the passion to insist he was real were channeled into explaining why he is wanted to be real.

I think most fans actually forget the golden rules of POV chapters:

1. They are not objective.

2. People simply lie.

3. They are constricted to what one person sees, feels, knows.

So, forgetting that, people usually say: "I don't believe it until it is written in the text". The problem with this is that we, not characters have the complete picture of how the world looks like, and what in the grand scale some actions have provoked. Or the fact that none of the characters, not even LF, Varys nor Tyrion are omniscient. As smart as Tyrion is, he simply knows what he was told, or what he knows and suspects. We see it brilliantly how Sansa manages to plan with Dontos her escape. So, the evident problem is not people wanting to believe in something, but the lack of understanding for POV structure. Just as some believed that Davos was dead during AFFC, or the fact that objective truth lays between all POVs, some have problems in understanding why some of us believe that Aegon is fake. It is not that we have come up with some crazy ideas from D&E, or we want Aegon to be that way. We just have looked into the story, and were given a choice in believing whether he is real or fake. And given that the only "proof" is tainted POV testimony which we can't believe, we came to conclusion that there is nothing that actually proved he is fake. On the other side, we have narrative elements. like HotU, Quaithe, Moqorro, Blackfyre Gordian knot between GC, Illyrio's words and dragon sign on QI. So, the reasoning for Aegon to be Blackfyre is not in some fans' decision to believe so, it is actually in their objective realization there is nothing that definitely proves he is what he says he is. On the other side, the claim he is Targaryen is dependent on the contradictory belief that everything that is said in POV is set in stone.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

They were supposed to hide Aegon for everyone but Bittersteel, but they kept buggering about with the poorer relatives. Does it make sense? The fat man's clever if he's something. He's been a bravo, why should he behave as an old cunt?

Aegon had to be hidden for Bittersteel? Bittersteel is a long time death. Remember?

Btw, a couple things. Aegon wasn't at Kl when the sack, but that's another story.

...with lilac eyes and white-gold hair and lips that would have been the envy of a whore. Not Viserys, a Lyseni named Lysono Maar.

What? What are you trying to say here? That Lysono Maar is Aegon? If Aegon wasn't at KL, then where was he? Tell me that.

[Facebookless Man]

This thread is called Aegon is Real. What I would expect to see in this thread is evidence supporting Aegon being real given the chosen title.

There are plenty of theories on this forum. Any of them, even the discredited ones, can offer a template on how to make a positive case for an idea.

That's complete nonsense.

Robb thinks he's Ned's son. Every character who knows him thinks he's Ned's son, or says so. Were you to come up with a theory that Robb is in fact Roose Bolton's son, I wouldn't need to search the text for clues that Rob is Ned's son to make up a "theory". I wouldn't need a theory. Disproving yours would be sufficient proof that he is, in fact, Ned's son.

And that works no matter how much evidence you believe you have, or how mysterious the circumstances. For example, disproving R+L=J would be more than enough evidence that Jon is Ned's bastard, until a more compelling theory cropped up.

[Chatty Duelist]

That's complete nonsense.

Robb thinks he's Ned's son. Every character who knows him thinks he's Ned's son, or says so. Were you to come up with a theory that Robb is in fact Roose Bolton's son, I wouldn't need to search the text for clues that Rob is Ned's son to make up a "theory". I wouldn't need a theory. Disproving yours would be sufficient proof that he is, in fact, Ned's son.

And that works no matter how much evidence you believe you have, or how mysterious the circumstances. For example, disproving R+L=J would be more than enough evidence that Jon is Ned's bastard, until a more compelling theory cropped up.

I stand by this guy.

[Mladen]

That's complete nonsense.

Robb thinks he's Ned's son. Every character who knows him thinks he's Ned's son, or says so. Were you to come up with a theory that Robb is in fact Roose Bolton's son, I wouldn't need to search the text for clues that Rob is Ned's son to make up a "theory". I wouldn't need a theory. Disproving yours would be sufficient proof that he is, in fact, Ned's son.

And that works no matter how much evidence you believe you have, or how mysterious the circumstances. For example, disproving R+L=J would be more than enough evidence that Jon is Ned's bastard, until a more compelling theory cropped up.

What Rag said wasn't a nonsense, what you did, however is.

When it comes to any child, he is what his parents or guardians says he is. But given the fact that we have POV of his mother where she undoubtedly say to us who the father is, we are sure that Robb is Ned's son. Same can be said for all three Cersei's children, for ultimate proof didn't come from Ned, Stannis or Jon Arryn, but from her. And the best opposition is that we have Jon's case, where we are sure Ned is not his father, even though Ned himself says he is.