Heresy 102 of Ice and Fire

[JNR]

I'm really cringing that this thread is turning into another R + L = J, isn't that what the General thread is for?

Agreed, which is why I just chuckled at the idea that only ten pages in one iteration of Heresy could possibly suffice for this topic, and warned that opening this can of worms could instead get way out of hand.

[JNR]

In a world where people can change faces & a 'mad king' element; it seems clear to me that not all of the details have been revealed regarding L's disappearance… knowing the way that GRRM writes, there is more to the story… something that will likely change everything.

Could not agree more.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

Notice that (as I demonstrated in the long post), the same three Kingsguard evidently chose not to attend the previous legitimate king, Aerys.

They did this even though they knew him to be in peril of his life because Rhaegar had lost at the Trident and Robert's forces were marching south.

Again though, Jaime was with Aerys, fulfilling such requirement that at least one Kingsguard must be with the king, if there was such a requrement.

Agreed. And as it happens... I do think she was pregnant, with Jon, and that Jon was at the Tower of Joy when Ned showed up.

But the point is this: despite fan perception on this board, the premise that Jon is the legit son of Rhaegar is very far from being proven. The case for it is actually rather weak.

If you want to say the theory of Jon Targaryen, First of His Name, is on the same footing as some Heretical interpretations of the Night's King -- which I also consider weak -- then I would have to agree!

I think it's slightly more likely that Jon was legitimate than some of the Night's King theories which appear to have zero basis in the text, at least the Kingsguard presence is a possible explanation for his potential legitimacy. Unlike with the Nights' King where we have a few shreds of text even mentioning him, and those don't tell the story of whom he might be other than what line he may have come from (Stark).

But yes, I agree that Jon's legitimacy (and even parentage for that matter) are still very much in question, just I think we have a plausible answer supported by text that seems to fit, though certainly is not fact.

[MtnLion]

If Jon were Rhaegar's son, then yes, at the time Ned showed up, he would be the legitimate king.

However, that still wouldn't necessarily require attendance by the KG.

Notice that (as I demonstrated in the long post), the same three Kingsguard evidently chose not to attend the previous legitimate king, Aerys.

A point, here, you demonstrated the obvious, that they were not in King's Landing when it fell. The dialog points out

1. That they were loyal to Aerys to the degree that they would have slain Jaime.

That they certainly would have stayed to protect Aerys instead of fleeeing with Viserys to Dragonstone, then.

They go on that they will not flee to Dragonstone to protect Viserys, now.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

I'm really cringing that this thread is turning into another R + L = J, isn't that what the General thread is for? Along with, Jon is AA, Dawn is lightbringer, Ashara Dayne is insert mystery female here, and let me tell you how much I love character x. And oh yes, don't let me forget one of the thousand is Illyrio or Varys a Blackfyre? threads.

I think at least every Heresy topic should assume that Jon is not going to be put on the Iron Throne at the end of the series. ETA no matter who his parents really are.

I was invited to participate in the Heresy threads because of some of my thoughts on the White Walkers (Others) and where I think they originated, however I do think that Jon will eventually be "King" or "Ruler" of whatever is left of Westeros. Now I don't think it will be a happy ending, and I personally don't think he'll sit on the Iron Throne, because I think it will be destroyed in the war.

So I'm not sure how to take it that I'm participating in threads that are supposed to allow the free interchange of ideas, but would be making unequivocal statements about the ending of the series that happen to differ from my own.

[JNR]

Again though, Jaime was with Aerys, fulfilling such requirement that at least one Kingsguard must be with the king, if there was such a requrement.

And again, that peacetime requirement during KG meetings doesn't seem likely to have been sufficient at the end of a civil war... when Robert, victorious at the Trident, was marching on King's Landing and Aerys was about to die.

GRRM hints the KG weren't thrilled with their orders. I think they would much rather have gone to Aerys at this time.

But yes, I agree that Jon's legitimacy (and even parentage for that matter) are still very much in question, just I think we have a plausible answer supported by text that seems to fit, though certainly is not fact.

The problem with calling it plausible is that it overlooks this reality: Targaryen polygamy was very far removed from being the norm at that time.

It would have been a freakish event, unprecedented in Westeros' history in hundreds of years. Further back in time than the American Revolution is to us.

Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. Without that evidence, there's no reason to call the theory "plausible."

[Yield.]

As the person who rather started all this business by complaining that everyone takes R+L=J for granted I have unfortunately neglected the thread. This was not by choice. Shortly after posting with Dagda and Feather I had an accident. I fell down the cellar stairs and damaged my calf, shoulder, some ribs and twisted my wrist in a disparate attempt to hold on to the banister while falling and breaking my arse -- literally. So my sitting time is limited and I can only post and read in short doses.

If Jon was even there at all... there's no evidence of that, either, and many think he wasn't. (Seems to me Ran believes he was in Starfall.)

Actually, it's not even established Lyanna was pregnant! Just, like so many things, commonly assumed.

Ask the R+L=J folks how they know she was, and they'll point out the phrase "bed of blood" was used and go on to say that phrase can only possibly have meant "baby."

If some hulking male warrior dies in the next book in a "bed of blood," I am going to die laughing right alongside him.

For the first time in Heresy history I am in complete agreement with you on this topic JNR! There is not one thing you have said so far that I take issue with. :thumbsup: [ETA: Well except that Lyanna is Jon's mother, lol]

And you may want to start laughing already because we have seen a warrior/bowman dieing feverishly in his own blood. If you go back to ASoS you will find that the man the Hound gives the gift of mercy to is described very similarly to how Lyanna died.

This archer, without his bow as felled by a mace to the shoulder:-

"And then he killed me.” His eyes were fever bright when he said that, and Arya could tell that it was true. His shoulder was swollen grotesquely, and pus and blood had stained his whole left side. There was a stink to him too...

Arya brings him water to drink from the Hound's helm:-

When she came back, the archer turned his face up and she poured the water into his mouth. He gulped it down as fast as she could pour, and what he couldn’t gulp ran down his cheeks into the brown blood that crusted his whiskers, until pale pink tears dangled from his beard...

The imagery here is reminiscent of Lyanna being in a fever and laying in her own blood. Arya, like Ned both mention the smell: blood and coruption for Arya, blood and roses for Ned. Ned has a dream in which Lyanna's statue weeps tears of blood, the archer has tears of his own blood mixed with the water. If the Church can claim subtle hints from imagery as proof than so can we heretics.

There is no proof whatsoever that Lya died in childbirth. She could have sustained an injury and was fighting for her life while Ned was battling the KG which would also explain why she was screaming and calling out for him to help her. How could he have helped her if she was having difficulty in labour? Ned is no midwife as far as we know.

As to why Lyanna would be fighting someone for her life, remember she was for all intents and purposes a hostage. Aerys had already proven to be mad and had Rickard and Brandon killed on a whim. Is it so much of a stretch to believe that Aerys would take a life for a life? Lyanna's death for Rhaegar's? He could have ordered it before he died or even had a standing order for it to happen if his son was killed. And where did the assassin go? Well where do Varys' little birds come and go? In order for Varys to know what's going on and report back to whichever king is in power they have to be in more places than just King's Landing. We have already seen they will kill on command with the death of Pycelle.

While this may sound crackpot I think it is no more so than she died in childbirth -- which IMHO is more of a stretch.

Ok I can't sit anymore. Urrax I have not forgotten your question about who I think Jon's mother is and I will answer in due course since it is not as straight forward an answer as it might seem.

[JNR]

A point, here, you demonstrated the obvious, that they were not in King's Landing when it fell. The dialog points out

1. That they were loyal to Aerys to the degree that they would have slain Jaime.

That they certainly would have stayed to protect Aerys instead of fleeeing with Viserys to Dragonstone, then.

They go on that they will not flee to Dragonstone to protect Viserys, now.

You're turning it into some sort of subjunctive case, as if Ned had asked:

"What if you had been in King's Landing when Viserys sailed -- what would you have done, in that hypothetical scenario?"

But Ned didn't ask that. He said, more simply: "I thought you might have sailed with him." Before the Sack.

Now, if R+L=J is correct, and they had no news of the Trident at that point... the KG should respond "We couldn't have sailed, because we didn't even know Rhaegar had lost at that point."

Instead they quite simple respond that they didn't sail, because they are KG. And KG don't flee.

They chose not to flee then -- before the Sack -- just as they are choosing not to flee now -- outnumbered more than two to one by Ned and his companions. Fleeing isn't what they're all about.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

And again, that peacetime requirement during KG meetings doesn't seem likely to have been sufficient at the end of a civil war... when Robert, victorious at the Trident, was marching on King's Landing and Aerys was about to die.

GRRM hints the KG weren't thrilled with their orders. I think they would much rather have gone to Aerys at this time.

Oh I agree that they would have rather been with Aerys, and I agree that Rhaegar ordered them to stay with Lyanna. The question then becomes, why did Rhaegar order them to stay there?

Given Rhaegar's apparent obsession with the PtwP prophecy, one would think that it was to protect the PtwP, ie who he believed to be the child he had given to Lyanna.

So then once Aerys and Aegon are dead (and presumably the Kingsguard don't find out about it until it's atleast too late to reach KL, or perhaps after the deed was already done), it is no longer just their orders to be there, it is also their duty, if Jon is in fact legitimate, which the comments about Viserys would seem to indicate to be true.

Again, this isn't proof, but it does seem to be the most likely reason for them to be there, and for at least one of them not go to Viserys.

The problem with calling it plausible is that it overlooks this reality: Targaryen polygamy was very far removed from being the norm at that time.

It would have been a freakish event, unprecedented in Westeros' history in hundreds of years. Further back in time than the American Revolution is to us.

Extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. Without that evidence, there's no reason to call the theory "plausible."

I guess we have different definitions or requirements for plausible. To me it's the most likely explanation, thus my use of the word.

[Melifeather]

We know, for sure, that she disappeared first; weeks later Rickard and Brandon died; after that Aerys called for Ned and Robert, and Jon Arryn called his banners; and thus Robert's Rebellion began.

We also know Robert's Rebellion took about a year, and Jon was born around the time of the Sack.

So it's beyond any doubt that Lyanna would have to have conceived Jon months after she disappeared. It couldn't have been as early as Harrenhal, for sure.

Why not? We do not know when the tourney happened, and as for conceiving after being kidnapped, this assumes that Rhaegar is the father, and I don't think he is. I think you are being influenced by the kidnapping to peg Jon's age. I think Lyanna was kidnapped because she was pregnant.

[MtnLion]

You're turning it into some sort of subjunctive case, as if Ned had asked:

"What if you had been in King's Landing when Viserys sailed -- what would you have done, in that hypothetical scenario?"

But Ned didn't ask that. He said, more simply: "I thought you might have sailed with him." Before the Sack.

Now, if R+L=J is correct, and they had no news of the Trident at that point... the KG should respond "We couldn't have sailed, because we didn't even know Rhaegar had lost at that point."

Instead they quite simple respond that they didn't sail, because they are KG. And KG don't flee.

They chose not to flee then -- before the Sack -- just as they are choosing not to flee now -- outnumbered more than two to one by Ned and his companions. Fleeing isn't what they're all about.

No, I am trying to make sense of what GRRM wrote. GRRM had to write enough truth to pass muster at the end, while obscurring what he intends to reveal. Arthur says, "then or now". Describe what it truly means, if it doesn't refer to gurading the king then, and doing so now. For reference, there is a link in my signature.

[TheTowerOfJoy]

They chose not to flee then -- before the Sack -- just as they are choosing not to flee now -- outnumbered more than two to one by Ned and his companions. Fleeing isn't what they're all about.

And fighting and even dying to protect the legitimate King of Westeros, is what they're about, and perhaps that's what happened :)

[MtnLion]

Why not? We do not know when the tourney happened, and as for conceiving after being kidnapped, this assumes that Rhaegar is the father, and I don't think he is. I think you are being influenced by the kidnapping to peg Jon's age. I think Lyanna was kidnapped because she was pregnant.

Truly, if you study the ages, you will find that the Harrenhal Tourney was at least 21 months before the fall of King's Landings, and we know that Jon is born a fortnight before or after the fall (I prefer after, because Ned must arrive within 3.5 weeks of the fall for Daenerys to be Aerys' git). The war lasted about a year (Catelyn puts her marriage at a year, even). Aegon is a year old when slain, and Rhaenys was 2 maybe 3 (Tywin). Jaime was 15 at Harrenhal, and 17 when he slew the king. One of the SSMs even hints about the winter lifting before Robb and Catelyn's betrothal is announced, and Littlefinger's challenge.

[Black Crow]

I'm going off to prepare supper, so I think I'll pull this one now. The question of Ice and Fire has had a reasonable run and I think I'd like to sum up the Jon Snow question as I began it. There may be other theories out there, but at this stage in the game there really is no good reason to doubt that he is the son of Lya Stark.

Where he goes on from there remains to be seen, but thus far he seems quite inextricably bound up with the North and with Ice as a son of Winterfell, and quite honestly looking for solutions in the upper level of the sidhe halls under Winterfell seems more than a little lame, as does his setting up for the lost Targaryen heir. As I pointed out above, even if anybody believes him, by the time all the other pretenders have come and gone the good people of Westeros will have no interest in yet another one. It seems far more likely therefore to see him see this through to the end as the son of Winterfell which Aemon proclaimed him to be, and to leave the Fire to the dragon queen.

If anyone wants to continue dancing on the pinhead of the Tower of Joy, please feelk free to carry that discussion on in another place. For now we have Direwolves and Dragons to consider. See you in Heresy 103.

[Stark@heart]

Here's the big things that stick out for me when it comes to the TOJ story.

1) Why did the KG fight Ned & co instead of just letting him have his "bastard" nephew?

Daddys dead and mommies dying and the Targs no longer rule. Were they commanded by Rhagar to raise the child?

As we've seen & been told - the KG does not always follow orders.

I just don't see what the "final" command of Rhagar's could have been that would have called for them to fight to the death (with the uncle of the baby) to keep control of his bastard... makes more sense to me if they were fighting to keep control of a / the King.

2) No way in hell Vary's hasn't known or suspected Jon's parentage all along.

In fact, it could have been guidance/ info they were getting from Varys that lead to the fight to the death w/ Ned. Maybe Varys told them the big scary cold Northman would kill his sisters' baby for honors sake or at the command of his bestie the Usurper.

Maybe Varys thought the infant would be more suited to being grown into a King than Viserys then when the KG lost him, he moved on to plan F for Faegon.

Anyway, that's the big sticking point for me. Why keep the "bastard" babe from his mother's family?

[aDanceWithFlagons]

If we believe; the Singers abused magic to flood and change Westeros; and Humans abused magic that led to the Doom, then why not Humans abused magic to cause the long night of Others and the undead. I believe the frozen hell in the Land of Always Winter was disturbed and abused by some First Men, setting loose the frozen hell on Westeros. Similar to Valyrians digging into the Fourteen Flames and setting lose the fiery hell locked inside.

I see we are at the end of the thread so... I will save this for another time and place.

[wolfmaid7]

Technically wights, but I believe they are driven by the Others, and why would he be wearing "black ice", ie Obsidian armor to battle only wights...

I'm sorry TOJ i got to giggle at this because they "are" Wights, we have yet to see what Obsidian does to Wights because the one incident in which it was used it was hampered by mail.So we don't know.

But what purpose is "armor of black ice" (clearly meaning obsidian armor) if not to fight the Others?

And you're seriously implying that he recognized Ygritte, but didn't recognize his own "half-brother" Robb?

I think the "Rhaegar is Jon's father" is a very tantalizing feint, but again, I cannot see the logic of making him ice and fire when he and Daenerys should be opposites and champions of each respective side. I like Mance Rayder as the Darth Vader to Jon's Luke Skywalker, but Jon's father could be just about any northerner or wildling. One thing I feel is quite likely is that Jon will meet his father.

This little tid bit by Alfie is why i'm 20% uncertain of R being Jon's father as that would mean his father is alive.

As the person who rather started all this business by complaining that everyone takes R+L=J for granted I have unfortunately neglected the thread. This was not by choice. Shortly after posting with Dagda and Feather I had an accident. I fell down the cellar stairs and damaged my calf, shoulder, some ribs and twisted my wrist in a disparate attempt to hold on to the banister while falling and breaking my arse -- literally. So my sitting time is limited and I can only post and read in short doses.

For the first time in Heresy history I am in complete agreement with you on this topic JNR! There is not one thing you have said so far that I take issue with. :thumbsup: [ETA: Well except that Lyanna is Jon's mother, lol]

And you may want to start laughing already because we have seen a warrior/bowman dieing feverishly in his own blood. If you go back to ASoS you will find that the man the Hound gives the gift of mercy to is described very similarly to how Lyanna died.

This archer, without his bow as felled by a mace to the shoulder:-

"And then he killed me.” His eyes were fever bright when he said that, and Arya could tell that it was true. His shoulder was swollen grotesquely, and pus and blood had stained his whole left side. There was a stink to him too...

Arya brings him water to drink from the Hound's helm:-

When she came back, the archer turned his face up and she poured the water into his mouth. He gulped it down as fast as she could pour, and what he couldn’t gulp ran down his cheeks into the brown blood that crusted his whiskers, until pale pink tears dangled from his beard...

The imagery here is reminiscent of Lyanna being in a fever and laying in her own blood. Arya, like Ned both mention the smell: blood and coruption for Arya, blood and roses for Ned. Ned has a dream in which Lyanna's statue weeps tears of blood, the archer has tears of his own blood mixed with the water. If the Church can claim subtle hints from imagery as proof than so can we heretics.

There is no proof whatsoever that Lya died in childbirth. She could have sustained an injury and was fighting for her life while Ned was battling the KG which would also explain why she was screaming and calling out for him to help her. How could he have helped her if she was having difficulty in labour? Ned is no midwife as far as we know.

As to why Lyanna would be fighting someone for her life, remember she was for all intents and purposes a hostage. Aerys had already proven to be mad and had Rickard and Brandon killed on a whim. Is it so much of a stretch to believe that Aerys would take a life for a life? Lyanna's death for Rhaegar's? He could have ordered it before he died or even had a standing order for it to happen if his son was killed. And where did the assassin go? Well where do Varys' little birds come and go? In order for Varys to know what's going on and report back to whichever king is in power they have to be in more places than just King's Landing. We have already seen they will kill on command with the death of Pycelle.

While this may sound crackpot I think it is no more so than she died in childbirth -- which IMHO is more of a stretch.

Ok I can't sit anymore. Urrax I have not forgotten your question about who I think Jon's mother is and I will answer in due course since it is not as straight forward an answer as it might seem.

LOL DITTO