UK Politics - police blackmail edition

[SeanF]

If Scotland did vote for independence, it's hard to see how any government could be formed that depended on Scottish MPs to remain in office.

But, if Yes wins, I imagine that the SNP would sweep the board in Scotland in May's general election. What would be the point of voting for MPs from ghost parties that would disappear shortly?

[The Marquis de Leech]

If Scotland did vote for independence, it's hard to see how any government could be formed that depended on Scottish MPs to remain in office.

But, if Yes wins, I imagine that the SNP would sweep the board in Scotland in May's general election. What would be the point of voting for MPs from ghost parties that would disappear shortly?

The SNP don't do well at Westminster because they have minimal chance of influence (unless you're dealing with a Jim Callaghan situation). So Labour dominates, because your choices for who governs at Westminster are basically binary.

If Scotland votes for independence, they are still part of the UK until the mechanics have been sorted and approved (i.e. there's a Parliamentary statute repealing the Act of Union 1707). So they should be able to vote until then. Once independence has been achieved, the statute would presumably end the right of Scottish MPs to sit in Westminster, and the government of the day would have to deal with that. Perhaps via another election. No reason to panic, and certainly no reason to invoke wartime-style measures to delay a general election.

[SeanF]

I think that an SNP that had just won a referendum would perform vastly better in 2015 than it did in 2010. The government in Edinburgh would be, de facto, the government of an independent country. Both Scots, and rUK would want governments and MPs that would negotiate the best possible deal for their respective countries. A rUK government that depended on Scottish MPs would be very conflicted.

[The Iceman of the North]

From the "Scotland's independence will DOOM us all" file:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/calls-to-postpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence

Um, surely the easiest way is for the terms of the hypothetical Scottish Independence Act 2016 to simply specify that Scottish MPs are no longer eligible to sit at Westminster? If that brings down a hypothetical Milliband Governmen mid-term, then Labour can always try to negotiate confidence and supply for the rest of its term, or just call another election

Yeah, this is one of the more stupid concerns I've seen raised, not that there are a lack of these in this campaign.

[SeanF]

It's horrible to think that in two weeks' time, my country might have ceased to exist.

[mormont]

It's horrible to think that in two weeks' time, my country might have ceased to exist.

No country is going to cease to exist.

The UK is not a country, and never has been. Neither is Great Britain. In any case, the UK will still exist: it'll simply be a smaller union of countries than it was before, having one fewer member.

ETA - or is that one less member? Grammar nerds?

[Slurms McKenzie]

No country is going to cease to exist.

The UK is not a country, and never has been. Neither is Great Britain. In any case, the UK will still exist: it'll simply be a smaller union of countries than it was before, having one fewer member.

ETA - or is that one less member? Grammar nerds?

I don't know, I've always identified with Great Britain first. I've always called myself British. Welsh has always been a secondary identity to me.

[ljkeane]

No country is going to cease to exist.

The UK is not a country, and never has been. Neither is Great Britain. In any case, the UK will still exist: it'll simply be a smaller union of countries than it was before, having one fewer member.

ETA - or is that one less member? Grammar nerds?

Sovereign State as currently constituted then but everyone knows what he meant.

Plus of course 'country' is not a particularly well defined term and the UK meets a number of the different definitions better than Scotland, or England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

[Maltaran]

No country is going to cease to exist.

The UK is not a country, and never has been. Neither is Great Britain. In any case, the UK will still exist: it'll simply be a smaller union of countries than it was before, having one fewer member.

ETA - or is that one less member? Grammar nerds?

It's a discrete rather than continuous quantity, so fewer is the correct term.

And on topic, the Lib Dems have voted with Labour to reform the bedroom tax

[mormont]

*shrugs*

It's still a pretty melodramatic way to put things, although that was the intention, perhaps.

Nobody will wind up without a country. What will cease to exist (in the still-somewhat-unlikely event of a Yes vote) is a political union. The cultural and historical bonds will still be there. Things will change, but if they do change, it's because there was a democratic vote for change. I can understand why that might make people sad, but there it is: if the UK and Great Britain was really working as it should, there wouldn't be a referendum at all.

[Maltaran]

There's been some interesting articles on the BBC website recently about what a Scottish Yes vote would mean for Northern Ireland, given that a lot of Unionists there have strong Scottish connections.

[Slurms McKenzie]

I can't see their unionist predilections changing with a yes vote in Scotland, or I wouldn't have thought it would dilute such sentiments..

What did the articles say?

[Slurms McKenzie]

Saw this on sky news, Cameron singing about the referendum:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQPEMf3j6AY

I know its bad but it made me laugh.

[SeanF]

*shrugs*

It's still a pretty melodramatic way to put things, although that was the intention, perhaps.

Nobody will wind up without a country. What will cease to exist (in the still-somewhat-unlikely event of a Yes vote) is a political union. The cultural and historical

bonds will still be there. Things will change, but if they do change, it's because there was a democratic vote for change. I can understand why that might make people sad, but there it is: if the UK and Great Britain was really working as it should, there wouldn't be a referendum at all.

I hope it won't go.

But, if Yes wins, Scotland will have become a foreign country. And, that will be a wrench.

[Alex.]

I don't want Scotland to leave, but if I was Scottish I would absolutely be voting to leave. Good luck to then either way. The Scots are a good bunch

[northernwarg]

I am Scottish and have lived for a lot of my life in Northern England. I feel both Scots and English And when abroad, British. I'm very conflicted by the vote. I understand the Scots disillusionment with Westminster because many northern English feel the same but politically and emotionally I'm a federalist and internationalist. United we stand, divided we fall.

[Commodore]

https://twitter.com/alanroden/status/508315555385065473

@AlanRoden

So, we're expecting the YouGov poll to show a (very) narrow lead for Yes later. Prepare for Twitter meltdown. #indyref

[Slurms McKenzie]

I'm sad now :(

Any idea when the poll's coming out?

[Free Northman Reborn]

Why is the referendum treated as if the result is anything other than a foregone conclusion anymore?

The Yes camp has never been even close to the 50% mark. Heck, even now they are barely at 40%. Sadly, the chance of Scotland finally gettting their independence after all these centuries has died an unfortunate death before the long awaited vote even took place.

Is anyone actually thinking there could be a dramatic turnaround in the week or two that remains?

[The BlackBear]

Why is the referendum treated as if the result is anything other than a foregone conclusion anymore?

The Yes camp has never been even close to the 50% mark. Heck, even now they are barely at 40%.

According to YouGov: there are only 6% between the two. As someone who lives in Scotland it seems like anything but a forgone conclusion. No is more likely but it could all change depending on what is said between now and 18th or what the turnout is.