UK Politics - police blackmail edition

[SeanF]

Yougov have 51/49% Yes.

Panelbase have 52/48% No.

Yougov had No 22% ahead one month ago. Panelbase had Yes 1% ahead in August 2013, but otherwise placed No 2-10% ahead since then

[polishgenius]

I hope Scotland stay, because if they go, Alex Salmond would probably be Prime Minister of a country.

[SeanF]

Yougov are implying that a quarter of Scots have changed their minds in one month. If correct, then Yes will probably win by a landslide on the day. Alternatively, Yougov have completely screwed up.

[mormont]

My opinion of the accuracy of YouGov's polling is... not high. I find it's always best to check who commissioned their polls before reading them (they have an uncanny habit of finding what they wanted to find). Take their poll with a pinch of salt.

That said, I have talked to a lot of people recently who're voting yes, some of whom I'd never have expected to do so two years ago. A lot who're voting no, too, but there's definitely a swing among people I know, though I wouldn't care to guess how big.

[The Marquis de Leech]

I really hope Scotland stay. All political/economic arguments aside, I'll be sad to see them go.

I get the feeling that, on a long term basis, it's England who have left Scotland, not vice versa. That Scottish independence is on the table at all is a consequence of the economic policies of the last 35 years.

[Recovering forum addict]

My opinion of the accuracy of YouGov's polling is... not high. I find it's always best to check who commissioned their polls before reading them (they have an uncanny habit of finding what they wanted to find). Take their poll with a pinch of salt.

That's true whoever is doing the polling. The people commissioning the poll get to decide whether it should be published or not, so there will always be an enormous selection bias. The only polls that should be trusted are the ones that are done on a pre-determined schedule, and always published.

[Andriy Czarchenko]

Yougov are implying that a quarter of Scots have changed their minds in one month. If correct, then Yes will probably win by a landslide on the day. Alternatively, Yougov have completely screwed up.

Actually it would be about one in eight instead of quarter. And one in 20 polls is usually wrong even if everything is done properly.

[Alex.]

I get the feeling that, on a long term basis, it's England who have left Scotland, not vice versa. That Scottish independence is on the table at all is a consequence of the economic policies of the last 35 years.

Great shout

[The Iceman of the North]

Seems like the Norwegian media have finally heard about the referendum with several stories about it today (and earlier this week), with only a few stories before that. A general trend is amusement about the "Norwegian utopia" expressed by certain elements in the yes-camp, but other than that, the reporting is as neutral as you would expect (from Norwegian media) on foreign elections and referenda*. Typically they would ask the opinion of Scottish people living in Norway (who can't vote anyway), while "Norwegian" voices remain analytical.

* Provided they are considered fair and democratic in the first place.

[The BlackBear]

It's worth pointing out these polls are excluding 'not decided,' so you can't compare polls that include 'not decided' against those which exclude it.

[SeanF]

I get the feeling that, on a long term basis, it's England who have left Scotland, not vice versa. That Scottish independence is on the table at all is a consequence of the economic policies of the last 35 years.

Both countries have steadily diverged politically over probably 50 or so years. On current polling, right wing parties would get close to 50% in rUK. In Scotland, the figure is 15-20%. 50 years ago, the numbers would have been similar. But, then, the same is true of much of the USA, and only a few eccentrics would call for the secession of red or blue States.

[SeanF]

Actually it would be about one in eight instead of quarter. And one in 20 polls is usually wrong even if everything is done properly.

My error. You're correct. Statistically speaking, Yougov and Panelbase are saying much the same thing. It's the trend with Yougov that's so startling.

[mormont]

That's true whoever is doing the polling. The people commissioning the poll get to decide whether it should be published or not, so there will always be an enormous selection bias. The only polls that should be trusted are the ones that are done on a pre-determined schedule, and always published.

Oh, true. I just find YouGov to be particularly prone to the phenomenon.

[williamjm]

That said, I have talked to a lot of people recently who're voting yes, some of whom I'd never have expected to do so two years ago. A lot who're voting no, too, but there's definitely a swing among people I know, though I wouldn't care to guess how big.

I do wonder if some of these recent recruits to the 'Yes' side might lose their nerve when it comes to the actual vote. It's such a significant change being proposed that they might default to the status quo if they still have some doubts.

[Galactus]

Someone did point out how fundamentally lopsided the entire process is. The indeps can just keep keep voting until they win their +51%, but presumably then the voting stops. (it's not as if they're going to hold a reunification referendum four years later) which seems vaguely unfair somehow. (Not that there's any real solution that's any fairer, but still)

[mormont]

I do wonder if some of these recent recruits to the 'Yes' side might lose their nerve when it comes to the actual vote. It's such a significant change being proposed that they might default to the status quo if they still have some doubts.

They might do. Most of them are, to use an appropriate Scots term, scunnered by how terrible the No/Better Together/No Thanks campaign has been, and that's something that might not hold in the privacy of the ballot booth. They generally feel talked down to by the No lot, whose spokespeople do tend to talk as if even considering voting Yes is irresponsible lunacy. This is not the way to win people over. Particularly not Scots, who're a contrary bunch at the best of times. ;)

Someone did point out how fundamentally lopsided the entire process is. The indeps can just keep keep voting until they win their +51%, but presumably then the voting stops. (it's not as if they're going to hold a reunification referendum four years later) which seems vaguely unfair somehow. (Not that there's any real solution that's any fairer, but still)

Well, first of all the SNP have to win another Holyrood election before they can get another referendum bill through. And even then, they'll have to let a decent window pass before having another go. But the narrower the loss, the smaller that window will be.

And if pro-Union parties won an election in an independent Scotland, what would be stopping them from holding a reunification referendum? (Apart from a possible unwillingness from the rUK to have us back, I suppose.)

[Commodore]

they'll be trading independence from the UK for dependence on the EU, which is stupid

[Chaircat Meow]

Oh, Hello everyone.

Things just got interesting.

I do have to say Yougov are really not doing themselves any favours. That swing of theirs is very fishy, seeing Panelbase picked up nothing. I don't know what is going on, but I don't have any faith in Yougov. We need to wait for TNS, Mori and ICM to poll again to see if anything has changed. Kellner is being very noisy about this too ... just feels weird.

they'll be trading independence from the UK for dependence on the EU, which is stupid

I wouldn't go that far, but the vitriol nationalists tend to reserve for UKIP is curious given the similarities in the structure of the two arguments, and providing you remember WM is shedding powers will the EU acquires them.

[The Iceman of the North]

they'll be trading independence from the UK for dependence on the EU, which is stupid

That would make sense if there were actual a trade happening (or the UK and EU 'dependency' were equal in any way), but Scotland is already part of the EU, so how does this actually work Commodore?