Dany or Aegon - who'd get the most support?

[Mithras]

Given that the Blackfyres supposedly died out 40 years ago, I don't think many lords will get creeps from the presence of the GC.

[Mladen]

Dany is showing up with an army of eunuchs, the Dothraki, a few thousand extra mouths to feed in the winter in a country with an already scarce food supply, a kinslaying imp and the ironborn. Pretty much a "who's who" of Westeros's most despised.

I couldn't agree more with this... And can you imagine if the only person that could bring some good PR - Barristan dies in Meereen, which is quite the possibility? Basically Dany is coming with an army that in no way can be associated with anything positive in the eyes of Westerosi.

Aegon may have a better claim but first he must prove that he is the real deal ,while Daenerys may be a known quantity she has yet to march on Westeros . My guess get there fastest with the moistest .

To whom? He is coming claiming that he is real deal, with Jon Connington that will bring legitimacy to his claims. Do you think people will be questioning him that much? Absolutely not.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Aegon. He will have arrived first and begun to win over whatever support for Targs there is. When Dany arrives, it will only cause confusion. Plus, this is Westeros, They're going to prefer the male heir. However, Dany's dragons will be a force to reckon with and the first Targs came to power with Dragons. There's no reason to think it wouldn't happen again.

Other than all the things that have been set up so far to kill dragons. Obviously there will be a Dance and the dragons will be killed or brought under the control of others. Jon and/or Bran have definitely been set up for that. Some could argue that Tyrion and Euron have too. So I think Aegon will win the people's support but Dany will win the Dance at a huge cost, her dragons.

Except that at the moment, Dany has control over one dragon, not three, the other two dragons have escaped, none of the dragons is the size of Aegon I's, and that people have seen now that dragons aren't invincible and can be killed, especially small ones.

[Archmaester Drew]

Given that the Blackfyres supposedly died out 40 years ago, I don't think many lords will get creeps from the presence of the GC.

It'll make them think twice at least! ;)

[Faint]

I do not find the idea that there will be a large-scale war between the two persuasive at all. Armies will not enter into their conflict.

Varys and Illyrio do not know that Daenerys is expecting a fake and that Tyrion has already acquired all of the pieces to expose their charade. That will be their downfall.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I do not find the idea that there will be a large-scale war between the two persuasive at all. Armies will not enter into their conflict.

Varys and Illyrio do not know that Daenerys is expecting a fake and that Tyrion has already acquired all of the pieces to expose their charade. That will be their downfall.

But they still have to show why he's a fake though, and how they know.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

Except that at the moment, Dany has control over one dragon, not three, the other two dragons have escaped, none of the dragons is the size of Aegon I's, and that people have seen now that dragons aren't invincible and can be killed, especially small ones.

Yes, I know:

Aegon. He will have arrived first and begun to win over whatever support for Targs there is. When Dany arrives, it will only cause confusion. Plus, this is Westeros, They're going to prefer the male heir. However, Dany's dragons will be a force to reckon with and the first Targs came to power with Dragons. There's no reason to think it wouldn't happen again.

Other than all the things that have been set up so far to kill dragons. Obviously there will be a Dance and the dragons will be killed or brought under the control of others. Jon and/or Bran have definitely been set up for that. Some could argue that Tyrion and Euron have too. So I think Aegon will win the people's support but Dany will win the Dance at a huge cost, her dragons.

I also think all 3 dragons will make their way to Westeros.

[Faint]

But they still have to show why he's a fake though, and how they know.

It is much like Jon's parentage. If the author needs proof to convince other characters, he will have it. And honestly, it does not take much. It can be as simple as Daenerys threatening to feed Aegon to Drogon unless Illyrio confesses while in the presence of the High Septon, the Martells and/or the Tyrells.

We know for all of Illyrio's callousness, he has a soft spot for Serra and their child.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

It is much like Jon's parentage. If the author needs proof to convince other characters, he will have it. And honestly, it does not take much. It can be as simple as Daenerys threatening to feed Aegon to Drogon unless Illyrio confesses while in the presence of the High Septon, the Martells and/or the Tyrells.

We know for all of Illyrio's callousness, he has a soft spot for Serra and their child.

Fair enough.

Bear in mind that I do think Aegon is fake, but it also wouldn't surprise me if we never find out for sure in the story itself. Your suggestion strikes me as overly heavy-handed, but who knows. You can get a person to confess to a lot of things under extreme duress. Just ask the Shavepate.

[Faint]

Fair enough.

Bear in mind that I do think Aegon is fake, but it also wouldn't surprise me if we never find out for sure in the story itself. Your suggestion strikes me as overly heavy-handed, but who knows. You can get a person to confess to a lot of things under extreme duress. Just ask the Shavepate.

Well, Daenerys is supposed to be the slayer of lies. She could hardly be that if she kills Aegon with only her, Tyrion, Varys and Illyrio knowing the truth.

I also suspect that Doran and Arianne will not buy into Varys' shenanigans but the Sand Snakes will take their choice in the matter out of their hands, so that they will be forced to support Aegon (i.e., they will be amenable to exposing him).

[Hodor's Dragon]

Daenerys. Most will think he's fake and Daenerys has dragons.

I'm not sure I'd go quite as far as "[m]ost will think he's fake," but the fact is that Dany is a known Targaryen and Aegon is not. Also, we've seen plenty of Daenerys in action and know that she is talented, especially with the gift of winning supporters, while Aegon is well-educated but has not been tested by fire. Plus Dany will either be the one with dragons or the one with the badass dragon.

That's three advantages for her, and Aegon's only advantage is arriving first. He had damned well better make the most of his only advantage and strike while the iron is hot.

Aegon should have executed the original plan, to join Daenerys. If he has evidence to back his claim, he should be able to convince her, and she will support him, as she supported Viserys. If he doesn't have evidence to back his claim, his claim shouldn't be accepted by anyone except somebody who wants to use him as a pawn, because he came from nowhere and his background is not known, except to a tiny handful of his own supporters who could easily be lying.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

I do think Aegon is fake, but it also wouldn't surprise me if we never find out for sure in the story itself.

This. In fact, I'm really thinking this might happen much more than we are expecting :frown5:

[James Arryn]

I doubt most people will care one bit about where the Golden Company's loyalties lay generations ago. Think of the renditions we get of the Ninepenny Kings; even the people who fought there were a bit unclear about who was who, and that was back when it was more of a current issue.

As with York, Lannister and Tudor, most see it as a family squabble and really only care about who will keep the peace. Which is why entire regions would change loyalties over and over again, and few believed the important question was who trumped who is some academic line of succession.

[Mrs_Darcy]

Another thing Aegon could win a lot of supporters with is the food-situation in Westeros.

From the beginning of ADWD we know, that Illyrio knows, that there will be a famine in Westeros in winter. He also is a strong supporter of fAegon. If he is rich enough to gift Dany three dragon eggs and knows that food will be scarce come winter in Westeros, then it would make sense for Illyrio to buy as much food as he can in the Free Cities (mostly grain and other stuff that does not perish easily), store it for now and ship it to fAegon, who in turn can distribute it among the people in King's Landing like the Tyrells did when they came to KL.

[Mrs_Darcy]

I'm not sure I'd go quite as far as "[m]ost will think he's fake," but the fact is that Dany is a known Targaryen and Aegon is not. Also, we've seen plenty of Daenerys in action and know that she is talented, especially with the gift of winning supporters, while Aegon is well-educated but has not been tested by fire. Plus Dany will either be the one with dragons or the one with the badass dragon.

That's three advantages for her, and Aegon's only advantage is arriving first. He had damned well better make the most of his only advantage and strike while the iron is hot.

Aegon should have executed the original plan, to join Daenerys. If he has evidence to back his claim, he should be able to convince her, and she will support him, as she supported Viserys. If he doesn't have evidence to back his claim, his claim shouldn't be accepted by anyone except somebody who wants to use him as a pawn, because he came from nowhere and his background is not known, except to a tiny handful of his own supporters who could easily be lying.

Actually, I do not know, whether this really matters. From some comments Margaery Tyrell made in AFFC, it is clear to me, that at least the smarter Tyrells heavily suspected if not outright knew, that Cersei's children were no real Baratheons, but that did not prevent them from allying with the Lannisters, since they got a lot of power out of it.

From some comments Roose Bolton makes to Jaime, it is also clear, that Roose thinks the rumours about Cersei and Jaime are true, but that does not prevent him from letting Tommen legitimize Ramsey as well.

Most people in the universe of ASOIAF believe what they want to believe and what suits them, so most people who think fAegon would be a good king for them probably will ally with them, even though he has trouble proving he is the son of Rhaegar.

ETA: The soldiers of the Reach and the Stormlands allied with Renly Baratheon, even though they knew that there was no way Renly had the best claim

[Nihlus]

Aegon. Unlike Dany, he's male, didn't spit in Dorne's face, is already in Westeros, and has troops that don't suck. I'd consider it a miracle if Dany ever even manages to get to Westeros as anything other than an Ironborn puppet.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

Aegon. Unlike Dany, he's male, didn't spit in Dorne's face, is already in Westeros, and has troops that don't suck. I'd consider it a miracle if Dany ever even manages to get to Westeros as anything other than an Ironborn puppet.

Dany will definitely NOT be an Ironborn puppet.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

FAegon:

+He is a male.

+His *father* is Rhaegar.

+He comes to save the world from the barbarians.

+He doesn't bring barbarians to bring FUREEE UUNDD BLUUUD.

+He most likely will have the support of high lords.

+He doesn't bring WMD.

-?

Dany:

+She brings dragons and people could be scared of them.

-Aerys was her father.

-She is a female.

-She brings barbarians.

-She brings barbarians and FUREEE UUNDD BLUUUD.

-Dragons can be killed.

My vote goes to FAegon.

[Liz Stark-Targaryen]

Aegon will get initial support in sexist Westeros, but he's definitely the mummer's dragon. Won't always be that way.

I think if Sansa controls the Vale by the end of TWoW (with or without LF), she could be an amazing source of early support for Dany if she's smart enough to land in the Vale first. The points further south will be Aegon territory (Dorne, the Stormlands, etc.).

[Jon's Queen Consort]

Aegon will get initial support in sexist Westeros, but he's definitely the mummer's dragon. Won't always be that way.

I think if Sansa controls the Vale by the end of TWoW (with or without LF), she could be an amazing source of early support for Dany if she's smart enough to land in the Vale first. The points further south will be Aegon territory (Dorne, the Stormlands, etc.).

How she can control it without LF? She would be married to Robin or Harry?