Any thoughts on Preston Jacobs?

[J. Stargaryen]

Wow, I didn't realize this forum was full of elitist snobs. It's just a bit of fun, he literally says "I'm probably wrong about half of this" at the end of all his videos.

I know what you mean, man. I say the same thing all the time when I post on pro-evolution and pro-vaccination sites.

Thats the first thing I learned about this website. Most of them are snobs.

This is funny to me, coming from a ~3.5 month long user with nearly 1,300 posts.

[Loic]

I don't like watching theories on youtube since there's no possibility for a direct debate. What's the point of passively receive a hugeton of words, most likely wrong btw, if there's no interaction.

Also, I think we should focus more on theories rather than specific people.

[Poppa Chase]

I know what you mean, man. I say the same thing all the time when I post on pro-evolution and pro-vaccination sites.

This is funny to me, coming from a ~3.5 month long user with nearly 1,300 posts.

I don't get what you mean here. Is that a lot? This site is basically what I use to kill time at work. I'm on here a lot and I see a vast amount of posts old and new. I've made a large number of them myself and have occasionally been a snob as well.

[J. Stargaryen]

I don't get what you mean here. Is that a lot? This site is basically what I use to kill time at work. I'm on here a lot and I see a vast amount of posts old and new. I've made a large number of them myself and have occasionally been a snob as well.

I don't know. It just seems to me like complaining about the food at a buffet while working on your fourth plate. I guess most of the people here aren't too snobbish?

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

I don't know. It just seems to me like complaining about the food at a buffet while working on your fourth plate. I guess most of the people here aren't too snobbish?

What does "snobbish" even mean in this instance? Applying logic and rigorous analysis to a widely promoted theory? If so, happily a snob.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

What does "snobbish" even mean in this instance? Applying logic and rigorous analysis to a widely promoted theory? If so, happily a snob.

I think it means an insult to those who don't accept crackpots because of a narrow mind.

That's kinda what people promoting homeopathy as a viable alternative also claims...

[J. Stargaryen]

What does "snobbish" even mean in this instance? Applying logic and rigorous analysis to a widely promoted theory? If so, happily a snob.

Agreed. I think people let their egos get bruised too easily over their pet theories. R+L=J isn't some big conspiracy to hold down the occasional plucky reader. It's well considered and passes more tests than any competing theory. If you see people who defend it sometimes lose their patience, it's probably because they are tired and/or frustrated that their efforts to argue in good faith ended up being a waste of time.

[IceFire125]

Agreed. I think people let their egos get bruised too easily over their pet theories. R+L=J isn't some big conspiracy to hold down the occasional plucky reader. It's well considered and passes more tests than any competing theory. If you see people who defend it sometimes lose their patience, it's probably because they are tired and/or frustrated that their efforts to argue in good faith ended up being a waste of time.

LOL, right!?

Even GRRM expects us to debate our theories on forums.

If fans of a certain youtube user that put theories out there, can't handle the scrutiny of RLJ fans, who in their own right, debated and vetted every angle there is to the R+L=J theory, resort to calling them snobs?... I just have to LOL!

[stendhal]

While the guy himself acknowledges that he may have shortcomings I am inspired by the dogmatic hate to really hope for his validation when the next books are released.

Same here. I find some of these reactions especially disappointing given the closing he has for each series--that he's "probably wrong about half" of what he comes up with, and he just finds it fun to think about.

There is just so much text in the 5 books, even without considering the novellas, teaser chapters, etc. With time and imagination there are almost countless theories that could each gain support by half a dozen quotations. I too find them fun to think about, and so I like his videos.

I also think that when appealing to facts it's useful to remember that there's little about which we can be completely certain. It seemed pretty clear for awhile that Bran and Rickon were dead, right? (And Davos.)

In fact, I'm inclined to think that the repeated and always amusing use of "it is known" is largenly a reminder to be skeptical of what we think we know. Sure, I might be wrong, but I'll be the first to admit it. (Someone mentioned confirmation bias earlier, the Dunning-Kruger effect is another cognitive phenomenon that's quite relevant here.)

[MegaTechPC]

Wow, lots of hate here for PJ I see. I quite like his videos and a lot of them are actually quite brilliant. Sounds to me like many of you just hate him because of the R+L=D theory he put forward (which I too disagree with) but he has made some other videos that are absolutely brilliant IMO. The "Pink Letter" vids in particular are very good and I believe he is right on the money there with Mance and Tormund's plans as well as the whole plan at the end of ADWD. Seriously, there's no need for all the vitriol I have seen in this thread. Agree or disagree but at the end of the day the guy is just another one of us fans who puts his theories out there for us to enjoy. No need to personally attack the guy and anybody else who enjoys his stuff...

[Ser Creighton]

To much of a conspiracy theorist, unexplained leaps and applied supposition will never trump facts and evidence. To often he moves away from the text to guide the narrative in favor of his own predetermined outcomes. "Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence." The text is the text, understanding the text and Martin is a skill and this site more than anything is dedicated to the text. Discussing and understanding it, and he would have been well advised to join the discussion. There are people on this site I get along with and some I do not, but I am always learning something and on occasion hopefully educating some as many here seek to do. I cannot communicate with a video, there is no discussion and I think he prefers it that way.

R+L=J goes all the way back to around the time of Clash of kings. That's late 90's But look at the form of it. Did that happen by accident or did someone understand the text? Was that form a lucky guess to a theme that would repeat?

Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon

Sun + Moon = Dragons

Azor Ahai + Nissa Nissa = Lightbringer

The Maiden Made of light + The Lion of Night = Child.

Always the unity of opposition, always an inverse or mirror, and always creation. Male and female, light and dark, Ice and fire. Understanding just basic symbolism and juxtaposition would tell him he was wrong. It does not get more obvious than that.

[JonSnow4President]

Wow, lots of hate here for PJ I see. I quite like his videos and a lot of them are actually quite brilliant. Sounds to me like many of you just hate him because of the R+L=D theory he put forward (which I too disagree with) but he has made some other videos that are absolutely brilliant IMO. The "Pink Letter" vids in particular are very good and I believe he is right on the money there with Mance and Tormund's plans as well as the whole plan at the end of ADWD. Seriously, there's no need for all the vitriol I have seen in this thread. Agree or disagree but at the end of the day the guy is just another one of us fans who puts his theories out there for us to enjoy. No need to personally attack the guy and anybody else who enjoys his stuff...

Really? The one where one of the most common phrases on the planet means Tormund is lying about being able to read?

[MegaTechPC]

I don't really have any doubt that Tormund can in fact read. There are other clues to this...

[Dimples]

I don't really have any doubt that Tormund can in fact read. There are other clues to this...

Can't just leave us hanging like that. What are the other clues?

[JonSnow4President]

I don't really have any doubt that Tormund can in fact read. There are other clues to this...

Among other things, he tends to assume an almost infallible ability for those doing the manipulating in his theories to react in a specific way. Just for example (rewatching Pink Letter now, so I'm more able to argue against it), Mance writing the Pink Letter in the way described by Preston Jacobs is assuming Mance is able to perfectly predict that Jon will indeed follow it, that Jon will announce it to everyone and their brother, and that there are already several people ready to spring the Ides of Marsh on Jon (and more in depth analysis by people smarter than me suggests it was planned beforehand). No one has that ability. And when that ability becomes crucial to the motivations of the actors, I call BS.

Mance has to know Arya is fake before he ever goes on the mission to be able to scheme ahead of time like PJ suggests, but he has know way of knowing Arya is fake beforehand, and hasn't shown any indication of Quaithe level clairvoyance.

He also has to know that Jon would search for Tormund, that he'd let Tormund through, than Jon would share the pink letter contents with Tormund (or Val), and that Tormund would have the freedom to do whatever it is he needs to do.

The little things also bug me. He says Umber asking if fake Arya is the "younger sister" clearly means the conspiracy involves Jon since Rockon is younger than Arya. Never mind that Arya is one of two, so asking if she is the younger sister is perfectly correct.

[sj4iy]

Wow, lots of hate here for PJ I see. I quite like his videos and a lot of them are actually quite brilliant. Sounds to me like many of you just hate him because of the R+L=D theory he put forward (which I too disagree with) but he has made some other videos that are absolutely brilliant IMO. The "Pink Letter" vids in particular are very good and I believe he is right on the money there with Mance and Tormund's plans as well as the whole plan at the end of ADWD. Seriously, there's no need for all the vitriol I have seen in this thread. Agree or disagree but at the end of the day the guy is just another one of us fans who puts his theories out there for us to enjoy. No need to personally attack the guy and anybody else who enjoys his stuff...

I've debated him on this forum, like many others here have done. I don't "hate" him or his theories. I simply find that he cannot support his arguments with facts.

[Poppa Chase]

I'm sorry I called undisclosed people snobs. That was rude of me to do and I apologize.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

hold on.... we don't "hate" PJ. We don't like his theories (well, some of us) and we believe he, as said above, tries too much and some of his ideas are plainly ridiculous. He can be frustrating sometimes, but "hate him" is taking it to a different level. I've debated him here and he seems a nice fellow. So, no hate.

[sj4iy]

hold on.... we don't "hate" PJ. We don't like his theories (well, some of us) and we believe he, as said above, tries too much and some of his ideas are plainly ridiculous. He can be frustrating sometimes, but "hate him" is taking it to a different level. I've debated him here and he seems a nice fellow. So, no hate.

Hold on- is Jon asking for summer for Christmas? XD

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Hold on- is Jon asking for summer for Christmas? XD

He had to try :(