Are most of the prophecies false?

[Trogdor Targaryen]

I hope this is the case.

I get annoyed whenever someone writes Tommen and Myrcella off as "good as dead" for no other reason than that an old woman without and confirmed magical abilities told Cersei this once.

Since I don't have the exact words of maggy in front of me, but perhaps what was meant was that Cerseis influence over them would die, and tommen and myrcella would become children of highgarden and dorne, respectively, thus meaning her children are all dead to her. It does seem that the two of them are getting molded into the mindsets of those who oppose house lannister. Perhaps the next dance of the dragons will be a dance of the lions?

[sj4iy]

Since I don't have the exact words of maggy in front of me, but perhaps what was meant was that Cerseis influence over them would die, and tommen and myrcella would become children of highgarden and dorne, respectively, thus meaning her children are all dead to her. It does seem that the two of them are getting molded into the mindsets of those who oppose house lannister. Perhaps the next dance of the dragons will be a dance of the lions?

Cersei: Will the king and I have children?

Maggy: Oh, aye. Six-and-ten for him, and three for you. Gold shall be their crowns and gold their shrouds, she said. And when your tears have drowned you, the valonqar shall wrap his hands about your pale white throat and choke the life from you.

[Mithras]

I actually do wonder if the Undying had a sort of radio that intercepted people's messages.

The Rhaego prophecy seems to be false. Yet, both the crones of Vaes Dothrak and Dany's fever dream contained it.

Is the Rhaego image off in space as a universal possible truth for anyone to pick up? Or was it created, transmitted and intercepted?

Rhaego interpretation was false. TStmtW will be Dany's child but not Rhaego.

[Fat Mans Plan]

Melisandre predicted the death of three kings, it came to pass. She saw there would be a defeat of Renly if Stannis moved against him, it came to pass by her direct action. She also saw a defeat at the Blackwater which she presumed was an 'alternate' future, but was in fact the one that came to pass despite her attempts to change it.

Moqorro has had an outstanding track record.

GoHH and many others have also predicted events with stunning accuracy.

Really, I think things seen in the 'fire' (or by whatever other magic means) are always accurate, only the interpretations of these visions can be false (and of course people could simply lie about what they saw for whatever reason)

So a lot of the 'major' prophecies could be false simply by virtue of being misinterpreted, outright made up, or made in earnest by someone who only thinks they have the magic (I mean some have been around for quite a while).

And most are quite vague anyway

But this is why I think Davis might eventually end up killing Mel, she saw him kill/attack her in her fires and so had him arrested. But what if what she actually saw was another time in the future where Davos does indeed kill her?

Edit: of course, she could of simply seen Davos planning to attack her in a vision, and thus prevented him actually killer her but leaving the prediction true (as he did *plan* to kill her)

I also think it is much more interesting to have every prophecy be true but with the way it becomes true being the surprise, rather than some kind of 50/50 whether something is true or not.

I think prophecies vs. free will is a major theme of the work as well as being the main question of religion. If a god (or gods) know how everything turns out, how can our choices make a difference? How can there be free will?

Can't say I've ever understood what people mean by free will. Always seemed like a semantic argument.

[Mithras]

Melisandre predicted the death of three kings, it came to pass. She saw there would be a defeat of Renly if Stannis moved against him, it came to pass by her direct action. She also saw a defeat at the Blackwater which she presumed was an 'alternate' future, but was in fact the one that came to pass despite her attempts to change it.

She didnot see the bolded. She lied about it. More in my thread.

[Fat Mans Plan]

She didnot see the bolded. She lied about it. More in my thread.

Interesting, one of the problems of prophecies is that we can rarely be sure they weren't just made up by the prophet unless we have their view.

I definitively wouldn't put it past Mel to simply lie about the Renly confrontation, as she lied about killing the kings. (and she clearly knew that she had the power to kill Renly, and enough sway with Stannis that he would help her achieve it, therefore no prediction was really necessary to assure her of victory)

But I don't buy your argument about Davos's 'agency' or 'free will' being the reason she could not of seen it. I mentioned it briefly in my previous post that I find the whole free will thing to be mostly semantic as people define it differently.

If you define free will to be directly opposed to the concept of determinism (and thus predicting the future) then yes no one has 'free will' but I fail to see how this is a problem.

I also don't think Davos actions (his hand in the death of Penrose) need to be judged differently whether they are predicted or not.

It's also interesting that the SSM you included references a real world prophecy that came true even though the person in question was required to make it happen. Did that lord have no 'free will' because he was unable to escape the prophecy even though like Davos he both knew about it and made it happen by his own actions?

I will grant that that particular 'prophecy' in the SSM was not quite as literal as Melisandres.

Anyway you could be right, but just had a problem with that part of it.

[Ghosts Lunch]

It's an interesting topic, especially in the east because there seems to be Harpy prophecies encouraging Dany to marry Hozdahr, a Dothraki prophecy about the Stallion that mounts the world etc, all the house of undying stuff, the Westerosi/Rhaegar Azor Ahai and/or Prince that was Promised

This is just one character being pulled in different directions it seems, by different prophecies. Are they mutually exclusive or can they be interwoven?

Seem to recall the Astapori brought out the dead Butcher King and put him on a horse because of a prophecy. Didn't seem to work or come true...

As for the overall book, I think the point is that everything starts off as a "normal" medieval environment and then magic becomes more and more prevalent as the story evolves (due to dragons it seems)

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Some of the prophecies are worded in such a way that, as long as you squint and hold your tongue just right, they can be seen as coming true no matter what happens. Will the tears that drown Cersei be the ones she sheds over the death of her children? Is "choke the life from you" literal or allegorical? Who knows?

[~~~~~~~~~~~~~]

If the prophecies aren't true then there is basically no point to these books. They are pretty much based on them and as far as I'm concerned, I keep reading to see how they unfold.

Some of these prophecies have already started to be fulfilled without a doubt. I think misconception and the way some of them are so convoluted frustrate some of us lesser beings who don't understand what they're saying. They seem to frustrate some of the characters in the books as well.

Anyway, if there is no Prince that was Promised, I will be one seriously annoyed reader.

[Facebookless Man]

I think we're going to get all kinds.

Cersei's is probably of the ironic, self-fulfilling kind. The AAR stuff is the kind that can mean anything once you interprete it in hindsight.

And Dany's must be the catastrophically wrong kind, because these books aren't about the righteous hero overcoming evil thanks to a bunch of magical helpers.

[sj4iy]

Rhaego interpretation was false. TStmtW will be Dany's child but not Rhaego.

I think Dany is TSTMTW, not her child.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

I think Dany is TSTMTW, not her child.

I think one could argue pretty well that TSTMTW is either her or her dragons.

The prophecy says that all will unite behind him (seems to be occuring for Dany) and the "milk men" will fear her. If milk men refers to the Qartheen, that certainly is true. If milk men refers to any castle dweller, we shall see (probably will happen).

But, then again, in Dany's fever dream, which is probably from Quaithe, a dragon supplants Rhaego. Is Dany the dragon? Is Drogon?

Which brings us to the House of the Undying. Dany is presented with visions of Viserys, Rhaegar and Rhaego. We see Dany as Rhaeagar. And we always hear Dany quoting Viserys. If she becomes Rhaego as TSTMTW, she will become all three of these images.

That said....

Viserys seems to know about the crone's prophecy of TSTMTW before they arrive and calls it a mummer's farce.

And the image of Rhaego being supplanted may show that the prophecy was false.

And Quaithe says to not trust "the son's son." If she means Undying prophecies and "son's son" means "Drogo's son", then she saying its a false prophecy.

But, it's prophecy. Anything can be read into them.

[walkingWITHcersei]

Actually, it seems that all of the prophecies are coming true.

And I don't really think Martin is trying to pull anything over on us. He's increasing the magic in his series because he can.

Couldn't agree more. The prophecies haven't failed once, only our interpretation of them.

[White Ravens]

There are several prophecies kicking around in these books and it is hard to believe that they are all going to be fulfilled. It surprises me that there has been no mention in this thread of Archmaester Marwyn's words to Sam in aDwD: "Gorghan of Old Ghis once wrote that a prophecy is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is... and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of prophecy, said Gorghan. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time."

I think GRRM is planning to have a lot of fun resolving all these prophecies and that very few will play out the way we hope and think. Perhaps Marwyn's words suggest that the more a character is aware of a prophecy affecting them the less likely that prophecy will be fulfilled as they expect it to be. I can't wait to find out. Of course I have no choice but to wait, but you know what I mean.

[Ser Leftwich]

And Quaithe says to not trust "the son's son." If she means Undying prophecies and "son's son" means "Drogo's son", then she saying its a false prophecy.

“No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal.” - ADwD p. 152

It is not "son's son," it is "sun's son." So all that relation to Drogo makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

[sj4iy]

There are several prophecies kicking around in these books and it is hard to believe that they are all going to be fulfilled. It surprises me that there has been no mention in this thread of Archmaester Marwyn's words to Sam in aDwD: "Gorghan of Old Ghis once wrote that a prophecy is like a treacherous woman. She takes your member in her mouth, and you moan with the pleasure of it and think, how sweet, how fine, how good this is... and then her teeth snap shut and your moans turn to screams. That is the nature of prophecy, said Gorghan. Prophecy will bite your prick off every time."

I think GRRM is planning to have a lot of fun resolving all these prophecies and that very few will play out the way we hope and think. Perhaps Marwyn's words suggest that the more a character is aware of a prophecy affecting them the less likely that prophecy will be fulfilled as they expect it to be. I can't wait to find out. Of course I have no choice but to wait, but you know what I mean.

The point of that quote isn't that prophecies won't be fulfilled...it's that they will do so in an unpredictable way. It's dangerous to believe that you understand the nature of prophecies, because it will turn around and bite you.

Look at what happens to those that believe they can understand them or influence them:

Melisandre: she's so convinced that she understands the visions she has been sent that she has artificially created AAR in Stannis; a glamor which, as Aemon said, will lead them further down into darkness.

Rhaegar: believed that he was TPTWP, and became a warrior. Then later believed it would be his son, Aegon, and may have possibly even believed that he needed a third child to fulfill the prophecy that he ran off with Lyanna, the repercussions of which were far-reaching and devestating...causing the fall of his own house and the deaths of all of those he held dear.

MMD: tricks Dany into sacrificing her son, Rhaego, to save Drogo, in order to prevent Rhaego from becoming TSTMTW. However, her actions directly lead to Dany hatching the dragon eggs, giving Dany the power to possibly become TSTMTW.

So, that's what that quote means...not that prophecies are false, but that trying to influence them is folly.

[Mithras]

“No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal.” - ADwD p. 152

It is not "son's son," it is "sun's son." So all that relation to Drogo makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

That was a typo. SS meant sun's son and that makes sense because Dany used to call Drogo her sun and stars.

[Ser Leftwich]

That was a typo. SS meant sun's son and that makes sense because Dany used to call Drogo her sun and stars.

Between a typo and not explaining the analogy, that is pretty lazy; expecting others to get it or pay attention.

[Skinchanging Sweetrobin]

“No. Hear me, Daenerys Targaryen. The glass candles are burning. Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal.” - ADwD p. 152

It is not "son's son," it is "sun's son." So all that relation to Drogo makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

I mistyped (however I will say that she spoke "son/sun" and there is no way to know which).

That said, Drogo is Dany's "sun and stars" and she once even just calls him "sun." There is lots of imagery of Drogo being a sun and Dany being a moon throughout the series (namely the Qartheen trader story).

So, the sun's son may be Rhaego - a false vision.

You know, you could just say "hey, could you expand on what you're saying?" rather than just saying nothing makes sense and people are lazy. Just saying.

[Ser Clay]

Prophesy comes in three forms (for me) in this series.

1: Real Deal: You try to change it and it will change itself to fulfill it's end.

2:Self-Fulfilling: With just the right sprinkling of Real Deal thrown in, it's not hard to twist words into someone's ear enough ways/times that eventually their own belief brings about it's fulfillment.

3:Lies told By those Who Came Before: Here in lies the tricksy'ness. Here is where the fulcrum of our grand tale sways back and forth over balance. Some keen witted types over the past centuries have observed the power of the Real Deal and saw the effects it's fulfillment had on those who witnessed what, essentially, equates to miracle. So they lied. Someone proclaimed "X will happen, if Y and Z bring it forth" in order to further their own personal agenda or the agendas of loved ones.

It's this third type which I believe lies at the heart of some of the series 'Big Mysteries', like Summerhall. I can't shake the feeling that Summerhall was the product of someone who HAS the power for actual prophesy 'fudging' one for a friend. Perhaps what seemed like a harmless prophetic lie to let a friend marry for love started in motion the events that led us to where we are in the story today.