U.S. Politics - Jeb announced yet?

[TrackerNeil]

Its easy to forget how close the election actually was. Bush's margin of victory in OH was thin, just over 100k votes. If OH went the other way, Kerry wins. Given that Obama has won the state twice, it is not unreasonable to think that it was in reach for Kerry. Its also not unreasonable to suspect that the Bush campaign's painting of Kerry as a flip-flopper combined with the swift-boat attacks swayed enough voters while keeping others home on election day to give the state and the therefore the whole race to Bush.

Well, one can imagine a good number of reasons that election came out the way it did, particularly since it was that close. However, I'm going to go with structural factors; namely, that the economy was OK, the nation was at war, and Kerry was running against an incumbent whose ineptitude had not yet become apparent to Americans in general.

I seem to recall that in exit polling, Americans were not reporting same sex marriage as the reasons they voted the way they did, nor any impression of Kerry as a flip-flopper. Now my curiosity is piqued, however, so I'm going to Google to see if I can find that data.

Edited to add: Here's some exit polling from CNN, and it seems that, as usual, the economy ranked highest on the list of voter concerns, followed closely by "moral values" (whatever that means) and then Iraq. I don't know how "flip-flopping" factors into either of those; as I recall, Kerry never really wavered on any of that stuff, and opposed same sex marriage just as Bush did. I suppose one could argue that the flip-flopping charge poisoned the well in every area, but I don't think these data support that claim.

[Larry of the Lawn]

Ramsay - Sorry for not getting back to you when I said that I would a few weeks ago. I still mean to, but I'd just like to acknowledge the thing quickly here if I could. I've been diving with spider monkeys off the coast of St. Bartz. Changed my whole perspective on shit. Response pending.

I've never even been to Mt. Vesuvius.

[Maithanet]

Well, one can imagine a good number of reasons that election came out the way it did, particularly since it was that close. However, I'm going to go with structural factors; namely, that the economy was OK, the nation was at war, and Kerry was running against an incumbent whose ineptitude had not yet become apparent to Americans in general.

Which is why I think that the it is easy to say "Kerry ran a terrible campaign" post-facto, but the truth is that it was an uphill battle for him the entire time. He had a very narrow pathway to the nomination, and he nonetheless nearly pulled it off. As liberals, it is hard to believe, but Bush really was pretty popular with a lot of important demographics, like evangelicals, older voters, Latinos, and moderates. I wouldn't call the election unwinnable for Kerry, but he would have had to outcampaigned Bush, both in the media and on the ground. Instead, Kerry could only manage a draw, which meant a close loss.

[Fez]

Considering how hard it is to beat a President in their re-election campaign, the fact that Kerry got pretty damn close suggests he ran a perfectly fine campaign.

[TrackerNeil]

Which is why I think that the it is easy to say "Kerry ran a terrible campaign" post-facto, but the truth is that it was an uphill battle for him the entire time. He had a very narrow pathway to the nomination, and he nonetheless nearly pulled it off. As liberals, it is hard to believe, but Bush really was pretty popular with a lot of important demographics, like evangelicals, older voters, Latinos, and moderates. I wouldn't call the election unwinnable for Kerry, but he would have had to outcampaigned Bush, both in the media and on the ground. Instead, Kerry could only manage a draw, which meant a close loss.

Agreed. I think the structural factors were against Kerry, and the fact that he nearly won anyway tells you Bush's popularity was already on its way down to its eventual nadir of 27% or so.

[NestorMakhnosLovechild]

Which is why I think that the it is easy to say "Kerry ran a terrible campaign" post-facto, but the truth is that it was an uphill battle for him the entire time. He had a very narrow pathway to the nomination, and he nonetheless nearly pulled it off. As liberals, it is hard to believe, but Bush really was pretty popular with a lot of important demographics, like evangelicals, older voters, Latinos, and moderates. I wouldn't call the election unwinnable for Kerry, but he would have had to outcampaigned Bush, both in the media and on the ground. Instead, Kerry could only manage a draw, which meant a close loss.

I think it's incredibly hard to judge how "well" a campaign was run after the fact, when your primary goalpost is whether or not the candidate won. From my recollection, Kerry's campaign was okay - he was just a bad candidate for a number of reasons. He was very much perceived as a "middle of the road," not particularly liberal Democrat by many of the left, and was pretty unexciting to the base. And he was the subject of some astoundingly brutal and effective ads by the opposition. I remember a lot of my liberal friends being impacted by "Whichever Way the Wind Blows" because it seemed to confirm what a lot of them already felt, which was that John Kerry was not the liberal candidate we actually wanted at the time (and hey, I voted for Nader!). I also think you can't underestimate the impact of the "Swift Boat" ads against Kerry. They are probably some of the most devastating political attack ads ever produced: here, here and here. My Dad is a pretty liberal guy and a Vietnam vet. He thought Gore destroyed Bush in their first debate and was amazed when the media consensus swung the other way. He voted for Gore, disliked Bush and the Iraq War, and voted for Obama twice. He fucking hated John Kerry, as did every military vet he was friends with, and would never have voted for him.

[TerraPrime]

Yeah, Swiftboat was a nasty piece of work. I remember talking about that in this forum for pages and pages.

[TrackerNeil]

Yeah, Swiftboat was a nasty piece of work. I remember talking about that in this forum for pages and pages.

It was incredible to think that a guy with three Purple Hearts was being called a coward by a dude who sat out Vietnam in the Texas Air National Guard. I have to commend Karl Rove on the audacity of attacking a foe not where he is weakest, but where he is strongest.

I once read about an Alabama Supreme Court race, back in the 90s, in which Rove was involved. The Democrat, whom I think was named Kennedy, was considered a shoe-in, until Rove got into the race and politicized the whole thing. Even worse, he learned that Kennedy was very active in programs that helped abused childen, so he used law students to start a whisper campaign that Kennedy was a child molester. I seem to recall that Kennedy won anyway, but the whole thing was just disgusting. And this is the guy George Bush brought with him to Washington, to "restore dignity" to the White House.

[TerraPrime]

And this is the guy George Bush brought with him to Washington, to "restore dignity" to the White House.

He's called "turd blossom" for a good reason.

[TrackerNeil]

He's called "turd blossom" for a good reason.

Although isn't it amazing how quickly this guy went from star to persona non grata? The Democrats rocked the house in 2006, and all of a sudden the Republican wizard was a shambling old conjurer of cheap tricks. Then in 2012 he had his little meltdown on Fox over that station's calling of Ohio for Obama, which from anyone else would have been pathetic and a little sad. From Rove, it was pathetic and really funny.

[lokisnow]

Hah, Gavin Newsome, apparently noting how Kamala Harris locked up her senate seat early, has announced he is running for governor in 2018 and has started raising funds. that Bay area political machine is quite adroit, First Villaraigosa was outmaneuvered by Harris, now he's been outmaneuvered by Newsome! I'm sure this completely blindsided him. The good news is that he's got a decent chance of running for Feinstein's seat, since Harris and Newsome eliminate the two biggest pieces of competition, presuming the octagenarian retires.

***

And in other news, 98% of fracking wastewater wells in California have benzene levels in excess of 700 times the allowable level. But it is totes okay that they are injecting the wastewater into drinkingwater aquifers, what could possibly go wrong in deliberately giving people cancer?

[Maithanet]

Then in 2012 he had his little meltdown on Fox over that station's calling of Ohio for Obama, which from anyone else would have been pathetic and a little sad. From Rove, it was pathetic and really funny.

It really was great. It was like the embodiment of the Republican "I'm not a scientist" talking point. "I'm not a statistician, but I'm certain that I know how to do your job better than you. There is simply no way that you can predict the result in Ohio at this time."

[Fez]

Although isn't it amazing how quickly this guy went from star to persona non grata?

I'm not so sure about that. His SuperPAC directly spent $23 million in the 2014 elections and helped coordinated who knows how many other PACs. He isn't in the public eye as much anymore, but Rove is still very much a part of the Republican political operative scene.

[Shryke]

Well, one can imagine a good number of reasons that election came out the way it did, particularly since it was that close. However, I'm going to go with structural factors; namely, that the economy was OK, the nation was at war, and Kerry was running against an incumbent whose ineptitude had not yet become apparent to Americans in general.

I seem to recall that in exit polling, Americans were not reporting same sex marriage as the reasons they voted the way they did, nor any impression of Kerry as a flip-flopper. Now my curiosity is piqued, however, so I'm going to Google to see if I can find that data.

Edited to add: Here's some exit polling from CNN, and it seems that, as usual, the economy ranked highest on the list of voter concerns, followed closely by "moral values" (whatever that means) and then Iraq. I don't know how "flip-flopping" factors into either of those; as I recall, Kerry never really wavered on any of that stuff, and opposed same sex marriage just as Bush did. I suppose one could argue that the flip-flopping charge poisoned the well in every area, but I don't think these data support that claim.

That doesn't actually cover what is generally suggested though. The idea is that they use gay marriage bans to get people into the polling booth. And once they are there, of course, they'll vote for other stuff too.

Because elections are generally more about getting your people out to the polls or the other guys staying at home then they are about really changing anyone's mind. Swing voters are not common.

[Shryke]

It was incredible to think that a guy with three Purple Hearts was being called a coward by a dude who sat out Vietnam in the Texas Air National Guard. I have to commend Karl Rove on the audacity of attacking a foe not where he is weakest, but where he is strongest.

I once read about an Alabama Supreme Court race, back in the 90s, in which Rove was involved. The Democrat, whom I think was named Kennedy, was considered a shoe-in, until Rove got into the race and politicized the whole thing. Even worse, he learned that Kennedy was very active in programs that helped abused childen, so he used law students to start a whisper campaign that Kennedy was a child molester. I seem to recall that Kennedy won anyway, but the whole thing was just disgusting. And this is the guy George Bush brought with him to Washington, to "restore dignity" to the White House.

Let's not forget that back in 2000 he was behind the dog-whistle campaign Bush ran against McCain claiming his adopted daughter was his "filthy half-breed" illegitimate baby.

[Lightysnake88]

Ah, yes, that lovely little thing...

Still, of all the current crop of Republican Presidential candidates, I think Paul would be the most worriesome. His links to conspiracy theorists and nullification 'states-rights' whackos is disconcerting at best, and his flop flopping as much as Mitt Romney tends to go unquestioned by the media.

[davos]

It was incredible to think that a guy with three Purple Hearts was being called a coward by a dude who sat out Vietnam in the Texas Air National Guard. I have to commend Karl Rove on the audacity of attacking a foe not where he is weakest, but where he is strongest.

I've often wondered if there was a path to victory for Kerry and more specifically if his campaign could have mounted a better response to the swift boat attacks. IIRC, they tried to ignore it for a week or so and only really responded when it became clear it was doing significant damage. The conventional wisdom is that an immediate response to this kind of baseless slander only gives the accusations legitimacy. Given how things played out, one has to wonder if an earlier, more aggressive counter might have mitigated its impact. I've always had the sense that there should have been a tactic that if executed properly would have caused the whole swift boat strategy to backfire on Bush, but its not clear what it is.

With how close the race was, its easy to think that Kerry could have pulled it out. I suspect, though, that even if they had handled the swift boat situation better that they got about as much out of the campaign as could be with the material they had to work with and that it would have taken a more dynamic candidate to fully take advantage of Bush's vulnerabilities while surviving Dove's strategems and come out on top. Basically Kerry wasn't a very good candidate.

[lokisnow]

I'm sure they internally polled the ship out of every possible response.

Ultimately, the swift boat ads worked because they told a lie anti Kerry voters desperately wanted to believe, that's the brilliance of hitting Kerry where he was strongest, it meant voters no longer had to accord him any of the respect and military hero worship these same voters typically demand everyone accord all veterans.

[DanteGabriel]

I'm sure they internally polled the ship out of every possible response.

Ultimately, the swift boat ads worked because they told a lie anti Kerry voters desperately wanted to believe, that's the brilliance of hitting Kerry where he was strongest, it meant voters no longer had to accord him any of the respect and military hero worship these same voters typically demand everyone accord all veterans.

It ties to the Republican monopolization of "manliness" -- even to the point of fabricating their own valor credentials and denigrating those of others. Back when he worked for Salon, Glenn Greenwald wrote an excellent piece on it: The Right Wing Cult of Contrived Masculinity. I've been linking it for years here, it's so good.

So through this device, you get Ronald Reagan, who made movies for the Army in World War 2 and never left the country, and blatantly lied to the Prime Minister of Israel about helping to liberate Auschwitz, remembered as some kind of cowboy hero because he played the part convincingly and he owned a "ranch." The ranch thing worked as well for George Bush the Lesser, probably-AWOL air reservist, who had a ton of photo ops "clearing brush" to burnish the manly man credentials he earned himself by landing on a carrier deck wearing a flightsuit and a codpiece. Rush Limbaugh and Dick Cheney both deferred out of service but no one questions their valor or their eagerness to send other people into wars, because they are on the Party of Manly Man Warriors.

Meanwhile, John Kerry served honorably and earned medals on a swift boat in Vietnam, Jimmy Carter served on nuclear submarines (how many people even knew that?) -- and yet the Republican propaganda machine uses the pre-written narrative, a narrative that the mainstream media all too often buys into without question, to paint them as cowards and weaklings.

[TrackerNeil]

Ultimately, the swift boat ads worked because they told a lie anti Kerry voters desperately wanted to believe, that's the brilliance of hitting Kerry where he was strongest, it meant voters no longer had to accord him any of the respect and military hero worship these same voters typically demand everyone accord all veterans.

But does it make a difference how well the ads worked on anti-Kerry voters? They weren't voting for Kerry no matter what, and the Swift Boat nonsense simply gave them another reason not to do so.