U.S. Politics - Jeb announced yet?

[TerraPrime]

More U.S. politics.

[TerraPrime]

I am going to try to keep a thread dedicated to discussing Libertarianism so this thread won't get too cluttered periodically. Give that a shot.

Thread: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/124430-libertarianism-the-perpetual-motion-machine-of-us-politics-thread/

[TrackerNeil]

Looks like the GOP is itching to pull the trigger on the filibuster, at least as regards Supreme Court nominees.

On Wednesday, Senators Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Mike Lee (R-UT) introduced a proposal to let all Senate nominations be approved by a simple majority vote

I'm OK with this. The filibuster didn't stop Alito or Roberts, so it's hard to imagine it getting much worse.

[Fez]

There's a New Hampshire primary poll out (because of course there is). It doesn't include all the possible candidates (there's so damn many on the GOP side), but its got a lot of them:

Republicans

Bush 17%

Walker 12%

Christie 9%

Paul 9%

Huckabee 9%

Carson 8%

Rubio <5%

Cruz <5%

Perry <5%

Democrats

Clinton 58%

Warren 14%

Biden, Sander, Cuomo, and Webb all in single digits

Of course, New Hampshire isn't much like the other states with early primaries. Its not surprising that all the establishment candidates would be doing well there.

[Shryke]

It's also a ridiculously early poll so it's basically just working on name recognition.

[Shryke]

Also, yet another investigation for Christie.

http://news.yahoo.com/jersey-gov-chris-christie-facing-criminal-investigation-001957027.html

Federal authorities have launched a criminal investigation into New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, as well as members of his administration, a man at the center of the investigation told ABC News.

The U.S. attorney’s office in New Jersey has interviewed former Hunterdon County Assistant Prosecutor Bennett Barlyn, who claims he was fired because he objected to Christie officials dismissing indictments against political allies of the governor. Barlyn confirmed the investigation to ABC News. It was first reported by the International Business Times.

[davos]

Almost makes me laugh. Given the experience of the 2011-12 GOP primary, I wonder how many "frontrunners" we will have between now and the Iowa Caucus.

A good deal of this is based off name recognition. The Bush family has produced 2 living presidents. Christie is well known, though that is a two edged sword for him. Paul is still benefiting from association with his father, though he likely has built enough of a reputation to stand on his own. Unfortunately he has proven in the last 6 months that he is willing to make it a bat-shit crazy reputation but it is at least partially his own. Huckabee is riding on his high status with the religious right. Carson is a celebrity candidate but likely doesn't have legs to stand on for the long-term. Most likely he's in this to sell books and earn speaking fees after he falls out ( if he declares at all). Walker has done an impressive job building a national name and courting powerful backing, which on paper makes him a formidable candidate, even at this juncture. He has numerous flaws that are going to make running a national campaign difficult. I suspect he will fade as the the field clarifies and the other contenders turn their guns on him. I'm actually sad to see Rubio so low. While I don't like the man, he has shown an ability to at least have a conversation with the other side as well as a thoughtfulness that is completely lacking from almost any other GOP leader of national prominence. Cruz and Perry are jokes. There is a good chance one, or both, will actually launch a campaign but I would be shocked if either gets much traction.

I'm surprised to not see Kusich (sp? OH govenor) on there.

I'm a little sad that the democratic field is so barren. I'm not a fan of Hillary, not convinced she is nearly as strong a candidate as many suppose her to be, and generally would look with horror on the white house returning to a Clinton or a Bush. I suspect she will be the candidate and if so may well have to vote for her rather than voting for a minor party as the GOP candidate is likely to be wholly unpalatable. I am far from happy about this state of affairs though.

[Fez]

If it's mostly name recognition, then that speaks to Walker's strength. Because I don't see him as one of the most well known in that bunch. And I think Cruz has a very high name recognition at this point, though his brand would never do well in NH.

[ThinkerX]

Given the gigantic pile of skeletons he must have in his closet, I can't see Christie as a serious contender. Indeed, I figure there is a fair chance (1 in 3?) his next adobe will be a prison cell.

Likewise, I se Walker fizzling out real soon, and possibly looking at a major investigation or three of his own.

Paul just managed to shoot himself in the foot...and no doubt will do so again.

I do see a lot of the far right wing nuts rallying behind Cruz, including virtually all of the so called 'birthers' - who will have no objection to his candidacy whatsoever.

At this point, to me, it looks like Jeb Bush is the republican front runner.

[Shryke]

If it's mostly name recognition, then that speaks to Walker's strength. Because I don't see him as one of the most well known in that bunch. And I think Cruz has a very high name recognition at this point, though his brand would never do well in NH.

See, I think you are underestimating Walker's name recognition. The recall and all that shit made him a national right-wing media name.

[davos]

If it's mostly name recognition, then that speaks to Walker's strength. Because I don't see him as one of the most well known in that bunch. And I think Cruz has a very high name recognition at this point, though his brand would never do well in NH.

Depends on how the pole was conducted. Among the general population, Walker might not be a household name. Within the Republican base he is a folk-hero and a celebrity and his nae recognition would be very high. If the sample was of among primary voters for each party, then Walker's high ranking is not surprising. If it was conducted using a more general sampling, then it is much more significant.

[lokisnow]

It will be walker in the end.

[The Marquis de Leech]

At this point I'd guess Walker, but I wouldn't put my money on any of them. Jeb Bush has the problem of his surname (being the brother of the worst President since Andrew Johnson is a bit of a handicap), Christie is out due to the Obama hug and Bridgegate, and Cruz is unacceptable to Blue State Republicans, who do exist, and do contribute delegates.

[Shryke]

Walker seems like the least obviously objectionable, but I think the more intangible aspects of his character will sink him.

He's a small-town-type shitty politician, not a national level one. He's that sort of short-sighted incompetent mixture of vile and petty that can only make it so far. The kind of guy who pushes gramas in front of cars for kicks and then when it finally comes to light can't even muster a decent media cover for it.

To illustrate what I'm talking about, just the past few days he's gotten in hot water for trying to change the mission statement of the WI collegiate system by removing any mention of bettering the human condition. And then when called on it, claimed it was totally someone else who did it even as he is shown to his face that he called for it pretty much directly.

It's the kind of move that both begs the question "Are you this bad at covering up the shits you are taking?" and more then that "Why even bother doing this in the first place?". A combination of random shitty behaviour to no real benefit and an inability to cover it up.

[Larry of the Lawn]

He's a small-town-type shitty politician, not a national level one. He's that sort of short-sighted incompetent mixture of vile and petty that can only make it so far. The kind of guy who pushes gramas in front of cars for kicks and then when it finally comes to light can't even muster a decent media cover for it.

Ha, kind of funny - my friend's parents were both arrested (both are in they're 80s and are grandparents) for their actions as Solidarity Singers protesting Walker at the Capitol in Madison two years ago. All charges were dropped and they didn't have to pay the tickets they were issued either.

[Paladin of Ice]

I've said this elsewhere, and now I'll say it here: I'm convinced Walker is this election's Rick Perry: formidable on paper (at least before things get started and it's all theoretical) but will inevitably break down and be shown to be badly out of his depth before national media and on national issues.

[aceluby]

I've said this elsewhere, and now I'll say it here: I'm convinced Walker is this election's Rick Perry: formidable on paper (at least before things get started and it's all theoretical) but will inevitably break down and be shown to be badly out of his depth before national media and on national issues.

I'm not even sure he's that great on paper. A simple comparison of WI to MN shows the terrible flaws in what he has implemented and how the alternative, namely MN 'socialism', works far better for the average worker and the state overall. He owns their shitty economy and it's going to be hard for him to dodge that on the national stage.

[DanteGabriel]

As the Mr. Netanyahu's Partisan Fishing Trip to Washington continues to unravel, the Israelis are throwing Boehner under the bus:

"It appears that the speaker of Congress made a move, in which we trusted, but which it ultimately became clear was a one sided move and not a move by both sides," Deputy Israeli Foreign Minister Tzachi Hanegbi said Friday on a Tel Aviv radio program, per the news outlet.

Then, via Reuters:

The interviewer asked if that meant Netanyahu had been "misled" into believing Boehner's invitation was bipartisan, a characterization Hanegbi did not contest.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/boehner-netanyahu-speech-invitation-misled

This speech has been a Thing in Washington for weeks. Funny that we're hearing about Boehner's deceptive offer only after public opinion started to turn against it. If Bibi's people are feeling so ill-used by this ordeal, then maybe they should be the ones to shitcan their asshole ambassador.

[TrackerNeil]

I'm a little sad that the democratic field is so barren. I'm not a fan of Hillary, not convinced she is nearly as strong a candidate as many suppose her to be, and generally would look with horror on the white house returning to a Clinton or a Bush. I suspect she will be the candidate and if so may well have to vote for her rather than voting for a minor party as the GOP candidate is likely to be wholly unpalatable. I am far from happy about this state of affairs though.

I'm not satisfied with this, either. I've fallen out of love with Hillary over the last two years, mainly because she seems to have a problem admitting past mistakes. She had a problem with this in 2008 vis a vis Iraq, and she has a problem with this now vis a vis DOMA**. I don't know why she can't just admit that Bill Clinton got it wrong when he signed that bill into law, just as she got it wrong when she voted in favor of GWB's little war. It's OK to make a mistake.

** This wasn't even Hillary's mistake!

[Fez]

See, I think you are underestimating Walker's name recognition. The recall and all that shit made him a national right-wing media name.

Maybe. I definitely think he's more well-known than other mid-western Republican governors (e.g. Kasich, Snyder, Branstad, Pence). But I never think of him as being up there with Bush, Romney (RIP campaign 3.0), Cruz, Paul, or Christie; I thought of him more at the Rubio, Huckabee level. On the other hand, I don't always follow the RW bubble super-closely.

I don't think Walker gets the nomination though. He has too many unforced errors, and I think the establishment is ride-or-die with Bush, which is why Romney backed out.