How did Elia not recognize her own son?

[WeaselPie]

This question is always asked in the bright light of hindsight, with everyone else dead and Aegon's skull smashed.

But if you think of it organically, there are all kinds of possibilities in real time.

1) no one thought a massacre was probable. Political hostages...particularly female ones...are considered excellent value with little threat. A male heir might be killed as a future threat, but a female one can be married and therefore politically co-opted. So it's likely that little actual threat was percieved, except possibly to Aegon.

2) no one was thinking of a plan that would be a decade and a half in development. At the time it was probably designed to buy enough time to get Aegon out of KL. But the way things played out offered an extension of the secrecy, and Varys took advantage as is his habit.

3) Elia's motives can be legion. For one, we see Gilly act protective and maternal about a baby she knows isn't hers. For another, most humans holding a baby under threat will react protectively. For a third she may be associating the secret with Aegon's chances of making it out of KL. And lastly she may have only picked the baby up in the crisis, may indeed have been sleeping (she's very ill, remember), drugged, in another room, or w/e and just gotten there. Remember that the threat came from an unexpected direction; she'd have been expecting a progression through the Red Keep, with all the time that would take. 2 men scaling the walls and coming in through the window were likely a surprise, and much sooner than seemed possible.

All quite reasonable.

[MooseHB]

I agree, just because the supposed majority go along with the Blackfyre theory doesn't make it canon, because only GRRM knows the truth of it. I constantly change my mind on if he is real or not, because the arguments both ways sound possible.

Aegon should keep being debated over because I'm sure his legitimacy will be debated over & over in the story it's self.

My theory is that Schrödinger gave GRRM a box to put Young Griff's real identity.

We won't know what it really is, until GRRM opens the box for all of us.

[In A Coat of Gold]

He wasn't turned over by Elia. Aegon was stolen.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

My theory is that Schrödinger gave GRRM a box to put Young Griff's real identity.

We won't know what it really is, until GRRM opens the box for all of us.

We already have Schrodinger's Direwolf, why not Schrodinger's Dragon as well?

[corbon]

This plot, if it happened didn't start during the sack. Finding a boy to replace Aegon takes longer than that. Elia has every reason not to trust her son to Varys given his history as the voice in Aerys's ear trying to turn him against Rhaegar, ideas of the Dornish conspiracies, etc.

She does not know turning over her son to the mercies of her political enemy is a guarantee of his safety, nor does she know that the Lannisters are coming to kill her and her children. The only thing, I think, that would spur her to turn to Varys for help is if she knows of the pyromancer plot, and we have no evidence she did. That doesn't mean a switch wasn't made. It just means the part of Young Griff's story that puts the switch in the hands of Varys and happening the way he is told it did, is highly suspect.

I don't agree that the story is suspect. We see from Myrcella that the propspect of using royal baby/child doubles is not unknown. Varys could easily have acquired the pisswater prince weeks, months, even a year (technically, but unlikely - I imagine it would be smarter to wait at least until Aegon's features had begun to settle a little, to find a child similar in features as well as colouring) ahead of time without expecting to use the child for an actual replacement swap in, but just for general purposes.

Either after the news of the Trident, or at the last minute, during the sack, it would be easy enough for Varys to make the swap. Elia may be in on it earlier, at the last minute, or even not at all, all are plausible (the child wasn't ripped from her breast, thats just Dany's imagining the event).

Basically I find nothing about Varys' story remotely implausible (I'd expect YG's version to be less accurate since he's effectively at a far remove from the events he discusses, even as a participant, due to his age at the time).

[markg171]

I don't agree that the story is suspect. We see from Myrcella that the propspect of using royal baby/child doubles is not unknown. Varys could easily have acquired the pisswater prince weeks, months, even a year (technically, but unlikely - I imagine it would be smarter to wait at least until Aegon's features had begun to settle a little, to find a child similar in features as well as colouring) ahead of time without expecting to use the child for an actual replacement swap in, but just for general purposes.

Either after the news of the Trident, or at the last minute, during the sack, it would be easy enough for Varys to make the swap. Elia may be in on it earlier, at the last minute, or even not at all, all are plausible (the child wasn't ripped from her breast, thats just Dany's imagining the event).

Basically I find nothing about Varys' story remotely implausible (I'd expect YG's version to be less accurate since he's effectively at a far remove from the events he discusses, even as a participant, due to his age at the time).

We also know from Jaime that Elia wanted to accompany Viserys and Rhaella to Dragonstone but Aerys wouldn't let her and her children go. If Varys showed up offering to smuggle out Aegon, why wouldn't Elia agree to it when we know that she didn't want Aegon in King's Landing when the armies got there?

[Victor227]

It's entirely possible that Elia was in on it. Of the three of them (Elia, Rhaenys, Aegon), only Aegon was in any real danger of being killed should the city be taken, at least by standard medieval rules. Elia's a princess of Dorne, with immense diplomatic value to any new regime, thus making her an ideal hostage. Rhaenys is female, thus unable to sit the Iron Throne based on the Dance, and furthermore could be used to cement the new regime's place via marriage. Really, there was no reason to kill either of them, and a guy like Varys could make that argument very convincingly.

Aegon however, is heir to Rhaegar, thus Aerys' heir upon Rhaegar's death. The Iron Throne would become his by rights, and there would be years and years before he'd be old enough for a form of exile that would take him away from the prospect of inheritance. He would be an eternal beacon, especially as a hostage, to any Targaryen loyalists. Viserys may not have amounted to much, but he was half a world away in Essos. The rightful king being a 'guest' in the Red Keep, or anywhere else on Westeros really, would invite serious troubles.

So yeah, there was a logical reason that Aegon would be in serious danger, but Elia and Rhaenys were political currency that only a madman would squander. It's only in hindsight that their deaths looked so obvious. I doubt anyone was thinking that Tywin may have had a vendetta against the two of them.

[Lyanna Stark]

Dude, I also think Aegon is a fake but it is hardly canon. Don't just dismiss it because you have a pet theory of your own.

For example, I think the idea he is Illyrio's son is just as much bullshit as the idea he is really Aegon but I'm not 100% sure I'm right.

I am not a dude, and it is not my "pet theory".

Perhaps some actual research before mouthing off would be a good idea? Try it and get educated.

Or how about the Wiki? Isn't that exotic and "crackpot"?

How about lots of discussion by people who know WTH they are talking about?

Anyone who claims Aegon is a. real and b. that the Illyrio/Serra theory is "crackpot" needs to read ADWD again. Or just use the search function on this forum. ADWD has been out since 2011. This theory is neither new, my "pet theory" or crackpot. Whether or not you consider the evidence good enough is one thing. To consider the theory "crackpot" and "out there" is simply not true. The first time I saw it knocking around was perhaps in August 2011, a few weeks after the book was released and people have plowed it through. I believe it was Apple Martini who posted the first round of proof of Aegon being a Blackfyre and it has been many years and many posts about it since.

[Anythingatall]

Anyone who claims Aegon is a. real and b. that the Illyrio/Serra theory is "crackpot" needs to read ADWD again. Or just use the search function on this forum. ADWD has been out since 2011. This theory is neithernew, my "pet theory" or crackpot.

While I also think Aegon is fake the derision you are showing to people who don't hold the same view is baffling. We don't know. Nobody knows apart from GRRM and those he has told know. It's a perfectly valid area for discussion.

[Lyanna Stark]

While I also think Aegon is fake the derision you are showing to people who don't hold the same view is baffling. We don't know. Nobody knows apart from GRRM and those he has told know. It's a perfectly valid area for discussion.

Oh no, someone made a booboo and got called on it and now we need to get the tiny violins out because E-peen Was Wounded.

Really. It is surely an interesting topic to discuss, but without even trying to look at the evidence, it is just a bunch of people talking without any actual basis in the novels. In other words: a load of bollocks. Which btw I have read lots of times before. Besides, if people are really truly interested in the discussion on whether or not Aegon is fake, I provided the best links provided so far in this thread to actually learn something about the issue at hand.

[Anythingatall]

Oh no, someone made a booboo and got called on it and now we need to get the tiny violins out because E-peen Was Wounded.

Really. It is surely an interesting topic to discuss, but without even trying to look at the evidence, it is just a bunch of people talking without any actual basis in the novels. In other words: a load of bollocks. Which btw I have read lots of times before. Besides, if people are really truly interested in the discussion on whether or not Aegon is fake, I provided the best links provided so far in this thread to actually learn something about the issue at hand.

Wow, I haven't seen the word epeen for the last few years, presumably the tweens who used it grew more mature.

Anyway thanks for the response, I don't really have anything to respond with other than suggesting if the discussion bothers you so much it would perhaps be best to avoid it?

[Acnologia Targaryen]

either the swutch never happened or she was in on it,

[Justin Amey]

Nah it's not like that at all. Valyrians are different from other races of people, their features are very distinctive. Are they trying to match up Aegon to Rhaegar? who is doing that exactly? JonCon made that one comment about Rhaegars eyes being a slightly different color purple than 'this boys'. Other than that I recall zero comparisons wrt features. fAegon made Tyrion think he was a Targ prince, if he can fool Tyrion he can fool anyone.

Sure illyrio rolled the dice when he conceived a child with Serra (who had Valyrian features) in hopes that the kid would come out with purple eyes and the right color hair, but his gamble worked. Illyrio himself is most likely the grandchild/ great-granchild of Maelys, so he has plenty of the Valyrian/Blackfyre blood in himself as well. It's really not as far a long shot as you think. Look at the statue of Illyrio in his garden, it looks exactly like fAegon or Rhaegar.

Illyrio is concerned about fAegon on a fatherly level. This quote proves it if you look closely.

Now why would fAegon's wedding make Illyrio think of Serra? Could it possibly be because she is this boy's dead mother and she would have wanted to see his wedding day maybe? And Tyrion sees that his shoulders are slumped and he looks small. That's because Illyrio is sad he is missing his sons wedding, fatherhood makes him small, this is where he is vulnerable, he cares too much about this only one person in the world. He tells as much to Tyrion prior to this, that he doesnt care about titles or gold, he cares about blood. He says he has enough money, so why in the blue fuck would he spend 2+ decades planning to put this boy on the throne if he was not the same blood as Illyrio? what is the purpose? Why would Illyrio waste so much time and energy if this is not his son? There is absolutely no explanation under the sun that explains Illyrio's motives for all this except that he is working to crown his child on the IT.

Also, yes the Blackfyres are mentioned in the 5 main novels, many many times. Sure the novellas expand on the details, but there is plenty of it in the 5 main books. Enough for it to matter and enough for there to be a reason it is in there.

I still can't believe you are convinced that Aegon is the son of Illyrio and Serra. I have given ample reason multiple time as to why such a theory is pretty much crackpot. Why do you think that he is the son of Illyrio and not Rhaegar?

[markg171]

I still can't believe you are convinced that Aegon is the son of Illyrio and Serra. I have given ample reason multiple time as to why such a theory is pretty much crackpot. Why do you think that he is the son of Illyrio and not Rhaegar?

Because only Jon can be the son of Rhaegar in the series. Duh.

[Luddagain]

Because Elia was ALSO swapped

Elia is Septa Lemore

[TimJames]

Because Elia was ALSO swapped

Elia is Septa Lemore

I don't think that's the case.

But more importantly, if that is the case than wouldn't that mean Oberyn Martell died for nothing?

[markg171]

I don't think that's the case.

But more importantly, if that is the case than wouldn't that mean Oberyn Martell died for nothing?

You mean kinda like he already did?

[TimJames]

You mean kinda like he already did?

No. While he did die, the poison on his spear ensured he brought Gregor down with him and thereby still avenged his dead sister. If his sister is still alive than she didn't need avenging and Oberyn just died poisoning a man who never hurt him personally.

[BitsOfBrains]

I can't believe that Elia would cling to baby Aegon who's not hers whilst her own daughter is butchered. If Aegon wasn't real then she'd have been clinging to Rhaenys all the more to try to keep her other child alive.

Aegon is just a tool for Varys, and if Aegon shows himself to be truly beyond Varys control he'll be a goner pretty quick, and Varys will come up with something else.

Yeah, that. A highborn woman would use a lowborn child as a club or projectile to try and save their wardrobe, let alone their own child.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I still can't believe you are convinced that Aegon is the son of Illyrio and Serra. I have given ample reason multiple time as to why such a theory is pretty much crackpot. Why do you think that he is the son of Illyrio and not Rhaegar?

Because of all the literary foreshadowing and back story on the Blackfyres. Because Illyrio has no other motives for his 20 year plan if fAegon is not his son. I'm sorry but I dont consider your evidence viable, nor does it make anything crackpot.

Also because I dont think that every character is a facade for something else, I dont think that Dany was raised in Dorne, I dont think Ashara is the mother of every person in Westeros and I dont think that (real) Aegon was spirited out of the castle on the night of the sack.