Appearance of Aegon

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

I'm sorry I'm not sure what you mean by "The assumption you're making about Jon Con is not what you would normally assume about anyone in this situation. You're only discarding the logical assumption that he was given some kind of proof because that's what fits your preconception."

I am assuming Jon Connington doesn't know of any mark on the real Aegon. Because if he did surely he would look for it.

How is that not what somebody would normally assume?

I'm not discarding the assumption he was given some sort of proof I'm pointing out that in the book it does not mention that Varys gave him some sort of proof, there is absolutely nothing said in the text to indicate Varys has proven to jon Con that Aegon is real.

fair point pycelle could just make it up, But I think it is indicative of Pycelle being able to identify the boy that Varys killed him, and the book he was looking at when he killed what was that again?

His testimony is worth more than the small councils as he was there at the time, the fact we know he is a lying lickspittle doesn't negate the fact that he was unique in that he was present in Aerys court. And his word would hold more weight than a small council member who was not present and never met Aegon. He could make such a thing up but he would be more likely to be believed by the lords of the realm because he was there and in a position to know. He was an eyewitness to the bodies, he would have been aware of any identifying features of Aegon. him being a Lannister lacky doesn't change those things.

[Facebookless Man]

Bent branch: That sounds crackpot but I'm gonna have to check Varys' exact words about the switch.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

If, as it is rumored, Rhaegar was planning to move against his father, then it would make sense that Rhaegar would take the precaution of hiding his heir from his father.

Actually, we are not told the particulars about when and how Aegon was taken into hiding. The general assumption is that the switch occurred during the Sack, but that is never actually stated in the novels. As we see in TWOIAF that Rhaegar himself may have had a reason to hide Aegon from his father, an option not available for Rhaenys since she had already been presented to her grandfather. To me, TWOIAF makes quite a point about Rhaenys having been introduced to her grandfather, but not Aegon. This could be very significant.

Varys says he was able to sneak Aegon out of KL, and switched the boy for a child from Pisswater whom he bought for a flagon of Arbour gold.

[Facebookless Man]

WW's eyes: I mean in this situation you'd normally assume Jon was convinced somehow. You wouldn't make the assumption that, until it is expressly stated otherwise, he just took Varys' word for it.

And there is, in fact, in the text, reason to believe he doesn't trust Varys.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Right, I see. to be honest I really don't buy him as being truly Aegon. Therefore I think Varys has no proof, how could he, When Aegon is fake?

And you think ,How would Jon Con be persuaded by Varys without truth if as we know he doesn't trust him. There must be proof.

In which case we look at the in text clues

Clues for Aegon being real.

Aegon has the Valyrian look.

Varys says so

Jon Con is convinced he is

Clues for fAegon being fake

It is unrealistic for Elia to be clutching a strangers baby to her breast whilst her true daughter cowers under a bed.

The clothes in Illyrio's manse indicate a young boy once lived there (this however just means the boy known to us as Aegon likely lived there, not necessarily that the boy is or is not Rhaegars son.)

The Rusty Dragon sign

Varys & ilyrio's association with the Golden Company

Illyrio's wife had the Valyrian look

Illyrio tells us the blackfyre line is dead in the male line hinting the female line lives on

The fact Illyrio & Varys have no motivation to save the real Aegon and then restore him to the throne. But it is easy to see motivation to install him if he is a Blackfyre and they are Blackfyre loyalists which is indicated by the association with the GC

the fact that Varys just killed the last person in KL who saw the dead body of Aegon.

The fact that Illyrio arranged for the two remaining Targaryens to go off into the dothraki sea with a tribe of volatile unpredictable warriors who have a huge aversion to even crossing the narrow sea.

the fact it was hinted that Illyrio has the sword Blackfyre. No way is he in possession of the sword unless he is of the blood.

The fact Varys is described in the same terms as egg is in regards to his shaven head and we associate him with lilacs, and he frequently wears violet, which hints he is a Targaryen himself

the fact Varys & Serra both came from Lys where Aerion Brightflame was exiled and GRRM has said he might have a couple of bastards on Lys in one of the SSM's.

The fact Dany will slay a Mummers dragon

the fact Varys paid for the piss water prince with a flagon of Arbour gold which is associated with lies.

Jon Connington feels tremendous guilt over failing Rhaegar and is desperate to put his concious right and so can be easily persuaded of the validity of Aegon because he desperately wants to believe.

So for me the logical conclusion is that fAegon is fake because there is just much more evidence in the books to hint at that.

I know there are ways of arguing against most of the clues but frankly I've seen them all and non convince me.

[bent branch]

Varys says he was able to sneak Aegon out of KL, and switched the boy for a child from Pisswater whom he bought for a flagon of Arbour gold.

Here is the quote, from Aegon, about the Arbor Gold and the pisswater boy (ADWD-Chapter 22):

The lad flushed. "That was not me. I told you. That was some tanner's son from Pisswater Bend whose mother died from birthing him. His father sold him to Lord Varys for a jug of Arbor gold. He had other sons but had never tasted Arbor gold. Varys gave the Pisswater boy to my lady mother and carried me away."

"Aye." Tyrion moved his elephants. "And when the pisswater prince was safely dead, the eunuch smuggled you across the narrow sea to his fat friend the cheesemonger, who hid you on a pole-boat and found an exile lord willing to call himself your father. It does make for a splendid story, and the singers will make much of your escape once you take the Iron Throne...assuming our fair Daenerys takes you for her consort."

Notice first that there is nothing in the story to say when this exchange occurred. Tyrion then states that Aegon was spirited across the narrow sea after the Sack, but Tyrion has no knowledge about how it went down. Although it is safe to assume that Aegon wasn't taken from Westeros until the Targaryens fell, even if he was in hiding before they fell. Finally, notice that neither of the people in this conversation actually know what went down. They know only what they have been told.

The only time that Varys says anything about Aegon is in the ADWD's epilogue and he makes no mention of how the switch was made. If there is something I am missing, I'm always willing to learn.

ETA: Actually, Varys does say something else about Aegon. He says that he was killed, but this was to Tyrion before Aegon was revealed. Of course, Varys would not have told Tyrion at that point that Aegon was alive, even if it is true.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Fair enough it isn't clear in the text, But i still think it is entirely crackpot and has no text that actually supports it. Supportive text is kinda my thing.

[anonnyscouse]

Pycelle has no reason to lie about Aegon's identity. When the bodies are presented to robert Baratheon and he see's that Aegon is not truly Aegon why would he not speak up? He is trying to ingratiate himself to Roberts court. He has no reason to keep this a secret.

Well there is one reason: he belongs to the Lannisters. If Pycelle speaks up and says the dead boy is not Aegon how does that reflect on Tywin given he is presenting the bodies as Rhaenys and Aegon?

It also provides Varys with a different reason to kill Pycelle. If Pycelle could know that the boy killed was not Aegon he could tell others on the small council, although he would want to warn the Lannisters first. It's assumed the note to Kevan was from Varys not Pycelle, but what if that's not the case? What if Pycelle did send the note before Varys got to him, and he was going to warn Kevan that Aegon could be real. It suits Varys that the small council believe Aegon is fake until the GC has gathered allies and taken a strong foothold in Westeros.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

It speaks nothing of Tywin at all. Tywin arranged for Gregor to burst into the apartments and kill the children, if one turns out to be a fake this doesn't reflect on tywin, it just exposes that Aegon has got away. If Aegon was a fake and Pycelle could identify the body as fake, then Varys would have to kill him during the sack. to prevent him speaking up and exposing the escape of Aegon.

[aryagonnakill#2]

If Rhaegar and Elia brought a fake Aegon to Kings Landing and Varys smuggled that fake child out then Aegon is still not the child of Rhaegar and Elia, so the whole argument is pointless anyway.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Oh no Aryagonnakill.

Bent Branch is saying Rhaegar & Elia brought a fake Aegon to KL and gave their son to Varys to sneak away at the same time. s/he is suggesting Varys worked with Rhaegar & Elia to ensure Aegon never came to KL. And that the pisswater prince was given to Elia to present as Aegon by Varys before she left Dragonstone.

this is based on nothing more than that it isn't specified when the baby swap was meant to have taken place & that Rhaegar was planning on making changes.

[Mithras]

Oh yes. Rhaegar could definitely trust his son's life to a man like Varys.

[Justin Amey]

Is there a legit description of Aegon as an infant?

From what I remember it is said that Rhaenys took after her mother (brown eyes, dark hair), but there is no description of Aegon as an infant (from what I remember). What if, like Rhaenys he took after his mother? Wasn't he his grandfathers hostage from birth. If so, not many people saw him. Those who did could claim that the real Aegon had the Dornish look, making young Griff a fake.

Look on the ASOIAF wiki page Aegon looked like a Targ.

Aegon was born on Dragonstone. There is no way for anyone in KL to know if the child brought from Dragonstone was Aegon or not. Not even Pycelle would be able to know this. If Rhaegar arranged to have Aegon taken into hiding before he left Dragonstone, then no one in KL could have identified the body as Aegon even if the face hadn't been smashed.

As GRRM has said Aegon looked Targ, I think we have to accept that Aegon looked Targ.

Even if Aegon was born on dragonstone, Aegon was still 12- 14 months ago. He would have had to seen by many in KL including JonCon.

Look At Beyonce's child, she is around the 14 month mark, in the face who does Blue Ivy look like?

Thinking like that it, should be very clear what Aegon look like at the time of the Sack.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I think this is a very good point. JonCon is a bitter and suspicious guy. I find it hard to believe that he wasn't given some very good proof that Aegon was indeed Rhaegar's son.

Indeed. Assuming he did not is pretending he and Varys are both idiots. Even 12 years later, and after being sure Varys is working actively for Aegon's cause, Jon wants him dead because he doesn't trust him and believes him not having honour. Why would he accept Aegon is real without having definitive proof?

At the same time, there is no way Varys believed he could use only his and Jon's word to convince people. We saw the Small Council believe Jon to be backing an imposter, and some don't even believe is the real Jon at all. Kevan and people over 40 could recognise Jon, but Arianne has never seen him. Also, it has been almost 20 years since they saw him. If he hadn't been given his PoV, we couldn't know for sure that Jon is real. I'm sure Varys has proof, even if it's fabricated, that Aegon is real. Something no one could doubt.

[Mithras]

Why would he accept Aegon is real without having definitive proof?

Aemon gives the answer:

"Stannis . . . Stannis has some of the dragon blood in him, yes. His brothers did as well. Rhaelle, Egg’s little girl, she was how they came by it . . . their father’s mother . . . she used to call me Uncle Maester when she was a little girl. I remembered that, so I allowed myself to hope . . . perhaps I wanted to . . . we all deceive ourselves, when we want to believe. "

Besides, JonCon is still haunted by his failure at the Battle of the Bells. This is a great chance for him to balance the scales.

[Rhaegarslance]

As far as we are aware jaime & Barristan know nothing. But we have to bear in mind that barristan saw Rhaegar for a decent length of time after he left Lyanna at the ToJ, they will have spoken and Rhaegar had no reason to not tell his KG that Lyanna was carrying his child. Jaime was in KL and never saw Rhaegar again after he left to meet/"abduct" Lyanna.

This isn't true at all. It's the opposite.

We can't ever place Rhaegar and Barristan as having talked after Rhaegar returned. They SHOULD have talked seeing as they led an army together at the Trident. But there's nothing in the text actually saying that they ever did, that's an assumption. Jaime and Rhaegar on the other hand we know did talk upon Rhaegar's return

The day had been windy when he said farewell to Rhaegar, in the yard of the Red Keep. The prince had donned his night-black armor, with the three-headed dragon picked out in rubies on his breastplate. “Your Grace,” Jaime had pleaded, “let Darry stay to guard the king this once, or Ser Barristan. Their cloaks are as white as mine.”

Prince Rhaegar shook his head. “My royal sire fears your father more than he does our cousin Robert. He wants you close, so Lord Tywin cannot harm him. I dare not take that crutch away from him at such an hour.”

Jaime’s anger had risen up in his throat. “I am not a crutch. I am a knight of the Kingsguard.”

“Then guard the king,” Ser Jon Darry snapped at him. “When you donned that cloak, you promised to obey.”

Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime’s shoulder. “When this battle’s done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but... well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return.”

Those were the last words Rhaegar Targaryen ever spoke to him. Outside the gates an army had assembled, whilst another descended on the Trident. So the Prince of Dragonstone mounted up and donned his tall black helm, and rode forth to his doom.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Thank you. I couldn't remember when they had had that exchange. So yes he saw both Jaime & Barristan on his return from the ToJ, so we have to acknowledge there is a reasonable chance they both or one of them may have some information about Lyanna & the ToJ.

Of course there is nothing in the text to assume it. I am very clear on my opinion of relying on supposition to form theories I like to rely mainly on the text and I certainly wouldn't act as if something is a certainty without in text evidence.

We do have in text evidence that Rhaegar saw both Jaime & Barristan after he left lyanna at the ToJ. we can take from that that there is a chance one or both have some information which may help to complete the picture of Jon's heritage.

• Rhaegar definitely saw both the remaining KG after he left Lyanna at the ToJ
  
• barristan knew Rhaegar loved Lyanna and referred to her as His Lady.
  
• We know he spoke to Jaime but that in the text we have been given Lyanna is not mentioned
  

This is what we do know, and we can make some assumptions, we can assume he spoke to Barristan at one point too, as to not speak at all to your KG seems extremely unlikely. But we can't be certain, nor can we be certain he mentioned Lyanna, though we can guess he did to at least some extent because of what Barristan says of Rhaegar's love for her.

We also know that somehow Ned knew where to find Lyanna after the war ended. So who could have told him where she was?

• Varys
  
• Barristan
  
• Jaime
  

These are the three remaining people in KL who may have known where she was. We know Aerys knew where they were because he was able to send Gerold Hightower to fetch him back. So if Aerys knew where his son was we can assume Rhaegar either told him himself, or somehow Aerys was able to discover. I place a slim chance on him just discovering where he was and if so that Varys was likely the person he would turn to to find him. But I think it is hugely more likely that Rhaegar himself told Aerys where they were. So we can assume that Varys could have known and might have told Ned where to find his sister. Jaime may have known as Rhaegar may have told him where he had been, and the same for Barristan. It is not implausible that he would tell the KG where he had been & if she was, that Lyanna was now his second wife. After all he had left 3 KG with her. Neither jaime nor Barristan ever questions why Rhaegar left those 3 KG with Lyanna in their internal thoughts, which may indicate that they know why he left them there. Because to just not even ponder on it if they didn't know at least that she was his wife seems really odd.

Most people believe that Ashara dayne was the one to tell Ned where to find Lyanna, but to me this is the least likely option. Consider that we have no in book evidence that Ashara was in a position to know where Lyanna was. She was not in KL so we can't say with certainty that Rhaegar saw her like we can with the above people.

She was not in KL so we know she never saw Ned in order to know he was there and wanted to recover his sister from wherever Rhaegar stashed her. She was in Starfall, she may have sent Ned a Raven. But that would require for her to know already that KL fell and the war is lost, and that Ned is in KL.

That is a lot of information she needs, and whilst certainly she would hear it in the course of time as Robert has ravens sent out to announce he is taking the crown, the time scale doesn't seem to allow for it and we know we have people in KL itself who have a better chance of knowing where Lyanna is. People who Ned can realistically be expected to question regarding his sister's whereabouts, the master of Whispers & two KG all of whom are now wanting to prove their allegiance to the new King.

Secondly why do so many people think Ashara knew where Lyanna was? the assumption that Starfall were supporting the ToJ is entirely supposition. Based upon Arthur Dayne being present. But we don't really have enough evidence to assume this imo. Of course they may have been supporting the ToJ but we shouldn't just assume they were.

Wylla having been Jon's wet nurse certainly isn't proof because we know Ned went to Starfall after he went to the ToJ. We have no evidence that she was at the ToJ. Lyanna can feed jon herself right up to the end. There is no reason why a fevered woman can't still breastfeed her baby. and the journey from the ToJ to Starfall doesn't take enough time to be a problem for Jon not having any milk for its duration, babies can go surprisingly long periods of time with no milk, we're talking days. Besides which we also know a baby can be fed Goats milk for short periods if necessary, and if a man arrived in the village/hamlet asking smallfolk mothers if they would please nurse his son for him as he is trying to get back home and his wife died birthing the babe/has been killed by bandits (it is war time remember, the roads are dangerous.) I'm quite certain most women would be sympathetic, one may even agree to travel as far as the castle with them in exchange for say some silver. basically I'm saying there are a lot of different options and assuming Wylla was somehow at the ToJ is wrong imo.

Of course Starfall could have been supporting the ToJ and of course wylla could have been there already but we can't just assume she was.

Once people assume something they stop asking questions and I think that a lot of readers stopped asking questions about how Ned found out where to find Lyanna too soon. I think it is better to remind ourselves that there are more people who might have pieces of the jigsaw. And that we shouldn't rule out Jaime & Barristan as sources. Nor Varys really.

Though I do think that if any of them knew she had been pregnant they may put two & two together and realise Jon is her's. So then we ask ourselves if one of these three did know she had been with child what would there mindset be. Would they believe Ned that the child perished with the mother? Would they suspect Jon is Her son but keep mum about it for their own reasons, Varys may not want to have it out there because it compromises his fAegon plan. Jaime may not want it out there as it would mean more war. He was very young at the time and had just experienced the horrors of the red keep, would Jaime want more bloodshed? But that said I really doubt Jaime knows as he has met Jon and we are in his head, and he thinks of Rhaegar & his children and if he suspected Jon were one of Rhaegars children I really think we would know by now. Barristan has thought on Rhaegar & Lyanna and again has not suspected Jon is their child. Though he has never met him. I think it is possible they if Rhaegar & Lyanna had married but maybe did not know of the child. Or if they did know of the child they in no way suspect Ned of having lied.

Barristan though knew the young Rhaegar and may if he ever see's Jon see something in him that triggers suspicion, or if the truth is out already that causes him to feel he can confirm it. And if either of them hear that Jon is Rhaegars son by Lyanna and they were married it could be that one or both of them are able to confirm that marriage.

varys I think if he were discover Rhaegar had a son and that son is Jon Snow would work on discrediting it as his agenda is to place fAegon on the IT. For his own reasons. namely that fAegon is fake and is the blood of the Blackfyre's.

Sorry gigantic post but I do think all possibilities should be explored fully before ruling anything out.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Why have I wrote a massive essay about R+L=J on this thread. I think i've got confused with the thread about Jon's parentage I was on. :dunce:

[Amris]

Right, I see. to be honest I really don't buy him as being truly Aegon. Therefore I think Varys has no proof, how could he, When Aegon is fake?

And you think ,How would Jon Con be persuaded by Varys without truth if as we know he doesn't trust him. There must be proof.

In which case we look at the in text clues

Clues for Aegon being real.

Aegon has the Valyrian look.

Varys says so

Jon Con is convinced he is

Clues for fAegon being fake

It is unrealistic for Elia to be clutching a strangers baby to her breast whilst her true daughter cowers under a bed.

The clothes in Illyrio's manse indicate a young boy once lived there (this however just means the boy known to us as Aegon likely lived there, not necessarily that the boy is or is not Rhaegars son.)

The Rusty Dragon sign

Varys & ilyrio's association with the Golden Company

Illyrio's wife had the Valyrian look

Illyrio tells us the blackfyre line is dead in the male line hinting the female line lives on

The fact Illyrio & Varys have no motivation to save the real Aegon and then restore him to the throne. But it is easy to see motivation to install him if he is a Blackfyre and they are Blackfyre loyalists which is indicated by the association with the GC

the fact that Varys just killed the last person in KL who saw the dead body of Aegon.

The fact that Illyrio arranged for the two remaining Targaryens to go off into the dothraki sea with a tribe of volatile unpredictable warriors who have a huge aversion to even crossing the narrow sea.

the fact it was hinted that Illyrio has the sword Blackfyre. No way is he in possession of the sword unless he is of the blood.

The fact Varys is described in the same terms as egg is in regards to his shaven head and we associate him with lilacs, and he frequently wears violet, which hints he is a Targaryen himself

the fact Varys & Serra both came from Lys where Aerion Brightflame was exiled and GRRM has said he might have a couple of bastards on Lys in one of the SSM's.

The fact Dany will slay a Mummers dragon

the fact Varys paid for the piss water prince with a flagon of Arbour gold which is associated with lies.

Jon Connington feels tremendous guilt over failing Rhaegar and is desperate to put his concious right and so can be easily persuaded of the validity of Aegon because he desperately wants to believe.

So for me the logical conclusion is that fAegon is fake because there is just much more evidence in the books to hint at that.

I know there are ways of arguing against most of the clues but frankly I've seen them all and non convince me.

I am confused by your use of the word 'evidence'.

Now: Varys telling a dying man whom he has no reason to lie to that Aegon is real - that's evidence. I am not saying this 100% proves Aegon definitely is real, but it IS evidence.

The remainder of your clues however ...

You can't be serious when you say 'Illyrio arranged for the two remaining Targaryens to go off into the dothraki sea with a tribe of volatile unpredictable warriors who have a huge aversion to even crossing the narrow sea' is evidence against Aegon being real. What kind of 'evidence' is that supposed to be? That's nothing.

Same goes for the whole list. I don't want to repeat every one of your ten 'clues' for the sake of length - but there isn't a single piece of real evidence among them. Look at them yourself and ask yourself critically: Would this convince me if I sat on a jury in a court of law?

All one can say is that IF everything went as you seem to assume it did - then these 'clues' do not make your theory impossible. Yes, your theory is theoretically possible, I am seeing that. But that's a far cry from there being 'evidence' for it let alone if being proven.

[Facebookless Man]

To be honest I didn't read past the Elia fanfiction. People just make that shit up out of thin air and they still can't get it to make sense. Whatever I guess.

WW's eyes, it's pretty clear that you are deducing your clues from your conclusion. You've already admitted as much re: Jon Con, and it's true of everything you have here. And that's okay really, because this isn't a puzzle game where we're supposed to have all the elements at hand. So can we discuss this topic without getting the same lecture every goddamn time?