"For the Watch"? (Spoilers)

[JonisHenryTudor]

Most are "all in" with Olly for sure...... but I dont think he is the main protagonist or first to attack.

I think he is the last guy to line up. So to Jon it is ......"et tu olly"

Bowen is cast so he might be first..... Allister still lingering with sour face all the time and did not like Jon from day 1. Perhaps too tempting for D+D not to give him first shot.

Yes that seems obvious, but too obvious?

I am wondering if Sam's interaction will Olly either dissuaded him from animosity, or bolstered an assassination attempt. I was fixed on Olly until that scene.

Thorne - I say yes any day, but I am not certain now. When Jon made him 1st Ranger, Thorne seems to have a change of heart....key words "seems". I won't be surprised if he leads the attack, but at the same time I will not be surprised if he swallows the pill and accepts the reasoning behind Jon's move. Thorne is a bit of an asshat at times, but he is no idiot. I guess it depends on how AT receives the HH information. He will be privy to the meeting, and he may see the light there. Those lower members who just arrived, however, might only see vengeance.

[JonisHenryTudor]

I'm not convinced they are going to go there with Jon getting stabbed. Except for an episode or two with Dondarion they've more or less dropped all of the other resurection stuff - Brienne, Stoneheart, The Hound.

And they've been beating us over the head with the Olly foreshadowing to the point where it would be more of a surprise if he didn't do it. Why bother with stabbing Jon when no one is going to buy he is going to be permanently dead?

Seems a much more interesting story with Olly overcoming his grief and Jon looking at him as he holds the knife, "If that's what you think you have to do..." is there instead of trying to cliff hang us with something few will find very cliff hangy.

To be honest, I was beginning to think this as well.

Although.....I can see the season ending with this.

The attack. Jon is stabbed. Ghost arrived to aid thus "Ghost".

He doesn't feel the fourth knife - Ghost intervenes

"Only the cold..." The WW have arrived.

Also I do have to wonder about 2 points.

1. Sam. He is not going to OT. AT least it would be odd to send him there now. His fight I think occurred for a reason. I think that could be used as a prep for Sam intervening perhaps.

2. A spin-off of 1. Those men who attacked Gilly, may be the guys who attack Jon.

[Tagganaro]

There are quite some changes from the books that, in my opinion, take away the meaning/shock of the FTW moment and there's a major lack of (good!) foreshadowing as well:

- Jon as a warg has not been established so they cannot distrust/dislike him for being a warg (I guess Varamyr could show up in E9 but that would be terrible last-minute foreshadowing)

As mentioned, according to casting rumors Varamyr was cast for this season, so I think it's possible/probable he shows up in E9. It might be bad foreshadowing, but I think it will be relatively easy for him to show up, out Jon as a warg, and talk about what that means, how connected Jon is to Ghost, etc.

- No foreshadowing from Melisandre about "daggers in the dark". No reactions from Bowen Marsh who's disagreeing with Jon. All we have are 1000+ shots of Olly. And Thorne better not be one of the stabbers because I actually liked his character arc and he's finally starting to gain some respect for Jon in the show.

Yeah, I think all of this will be E9. We've gotten development from Thorne (before Jon left, he was highly disapproving of the Hardhome mission), and Marsh has been cast as well. I think them + Olly will be the stabbers for maximum impact.

- Val is out so they cannot distrust Jon for having a Wildling wife and possibly still breaking his vows (I know this doesn't happen in the books, but the NW might see it that way)

- Jon is less involved in politics than in the books (no Cregan, no Melisandre at the wall, Stannis left rather soon, no Alys marriage arranged by Jon, etc.). The Pink Letter might still happen though and will likely be the main reason for FTW in the show.

Yes, this I agree with. The show seems to pretty much have cut out the North entirely (talking about Manderley, Dustin, etc.) so not surprised there have been no politics from Jon outside of him not wanting to ask Roose for troops.

At this point, it just seems incredibly stupid to assassinate the one guy who killed an Other, is viewed as a threat by the Night's King (or at the very least attracted his attention), has the only Valyrian sword on the Wall and has the total respect of the Wildlings who are already south of the wall (unless this doesn't happen in E9?). It's pretty much suicide and the guaranteed end of the NW to stab him.

In the books I could at least sympathize with the stabbers somewhat. There was also a lot of foreshadowing to the moment itself.

The guys at the Wall don't know this (they weren't at Hardhome). Additionally, the stupidity of it was on full display in the books as well with regards to the wildlings (i mean, they were already south of the Wall and it was guaranteed suicide)

In the show, if Olly stabs Jon that would be way too predictable and not very shocking. If Olly turns out to be a red herring and Bowen Marsh / Alliser Thorne stab Jon, then this would not only be a waste of Thorne's arc in season 5 but it would also come out of the blue with no good foreshadowing (do the show watchers even know who Bowen Marsh is?). We'll probably get Olly but that would be a real waste of the showportrayal of the FTW scene and the events that lead up to it, imo. D&D have really written themselves into a corner and whichever way they go, the FTW scene and its build-up will mostly feel like wasted potential to me.

I think Olly has pretty much just taken Marsh's place/importance. Marsh has been cast as well, but Olly has been the one making similar arguments to what Marsh did. Don't forget that Marsh accused Jon of outright treason when Jon announced he planned to let the wildlings through. Viewed in hindsight, it was perhaps obvious Marsh would not react kindly to the Pink Letter and Jon's plan to use the wildlings to attack the Warden of the North.

[ToTheWolves]

With Sam's "I've been worrying about Jon for years...he always comes back" line I do belive the FTW moment is happening.

[JonisHenryTudor]

With Sam's "I've been worrying about Jon for years...he always comes back" line I do belive the FTW moment is happening.

Yes I would agree. I do sometimes lead to it not happening, but now I am beginning to wonder if we will see more of the incident than DwD gives us or....

[ShadowKitteh]

I am completely clue-free on what they're going to do with this plot line.

Olly seems too much of a red herring at this point.

I have to say, like many things in ASOIAF, this particular plot line works much better in the books, because we're fortunate enough to have the bias from the PoVs we see it through. Not having that in the show, it's a very very VERY weak plot line, in that everyone who is at The Wall, or north of it (except noob Janos Slynt), knows EXACTLY what's at stake, and should all have the same level of HOLYSHITWEHAVETOSTOPTHEM. That might be why only Olly is having moments of, "Why the fuck is Jon making peace with the Wildlings?" because the rest of them know there's no other choice if they want to survive.

And unless Jon gets back with the Wildlings and some/one of them shanks a Brother, then Jon's trip was a success. Once a success why would any of them turn on him with THE LIFE OF HUMANKIND at stake, since that is something far more important than wanting Jon dead.

- White Walkers

- Army of the Dead

- "How do you kill that which has no life." (yes, I stole that, because I'm La Nerdess.)

There shouldn't be ANYONE north of The Gift that doesn't understand that if The Watch doesn't recruit the Wildlings, they'll be fighting them as the Army of the Dead, and with their depleted numbers don't stand a chance of stopping them.

In fact, their own OATH makes it mandatory to join with the Wildlings against the AotD. Because if they don't, they won't live long enough to even hope to protect the Realms of Men.

As for Jon's survival.....

- If warging into Ghost was the way, they would have already established that Jon's a warg, but that hasn't happened, so I'm sure that's not it.

- If Mel had glamoured Lord of Bones & Mance, that trick could work for Jon/Mance as well. But THAT didn't happen either.

Perhaps Mel will resurrect him.

Or, perhaps Wun Wun pounds his attackers into the floor before the final stab, and Jon is able to recover from his wounds (obviously NEXT season.)

Or..... Jon isn't Caesared at all... which I doubt, since Olly The Hater™ has become such a focal point - or Olly only attempts and is thwarted by ALLISER!!! (While Alliser is a complete wanker, he's not stupid.)

Or... it goes down like in the books, and we won't have a clue until next season (or George gets WoW out before Christmas), but it still makes the assassins look like insanely myopic eeejits who have no business being men of The Night's Watch if they put killing Jon over their own, and the world's survival.

[JonisHenryTudor]

Or..... Jon isn't Caesared at all... which I doubt, since Olly The Hater™ has become such a focal point - or Olly only attempts and is thwarted by ALLISER!!! (While Alliser is a complete wanker, he's not stupid.)

I think this is a key point. The whole post was good, but I like this one. Jon making Thorne First Ranger seems to have changed Thorne. Thorne could have been shipped off, etc, but he was not. Jon honored him. Now that doesn't mean squat, and that could have been done for the sake of making the entire scene worst, but I am not so sure.

I am not sure that Sam will be shipped off either.

Having said that.....and as much as I dont want to wait.... I actually want to see the smoking wound.

However, how are they going to translate that in a way that makes sense for viewers. Jon has been injured numerous times, but suddenly he starts smoking like a roman candle?

[fangirl000]

There's a whole episode left to grow the general grumbling against Jon into full on revolt among his officers.

• Before Jon left, it was enough that he wanted to make peace with the Wildlings. It was a bitter pill to swallow.
  
• Once Jon comes back, there will be a lot of resentment against Jon for his poor judgment in leading Brothers of the Watch to be slaughtered to save a handful of Wildlings. Sacrificing Watch lives for their traditional enemy? You can bet some people are going to be pissed.
  
• We already saw Jon try to arm and reopen one of the old watch towers. Now that Jon knows the true threat of the army of the undead, he could try to open more towers, and try to fill them with Wildlings to round out the numbers. Brothers being sent to obscure, broken towers for a harsh winter? Brothers having to trust Wildlings at their backs? That means more pissed off officers. Heck, maybe Bowen Marsh will be faced with the same decision as Slynt - go to a distant tower, or lose your head. Maybe Marsh decides the third way is to take Jon's life instead.
  
• Maybe Jon will try to put Tormund in a leadership position in the Watch. That would lead to even more resentment.
  
• If they do the pink letter, then Jon deciding to go south for purely selfish reasons - to save his sister, which has nothing what so ever to do with the Watch OR the Others - will be the final straw.
  

[DarkAndFullOfTurnips]

There's a whole episode left to grow the general grumbling against Jon into full on revolt among his officers.

• Before Jon left, it was enough that he wanted to make peace with the Wildlings. It was a bitter pill to swallow.

Once Jon comes back, there will be a lot of resentment against Jon for his poor judgment in leading Brothers of the Watch to be slaughtered to save a handful of Wildlings. Sacrificing Watch lives for their traditional enemy? You can bet some people are going to be pissed.

We already saw Jon try to arm and reopen one of the old watch towers. Now that Jon knows the true threat of the army of the undead, he could try to open more towers, and try to fill them with Wildlings to round out the numbers. Brothers being sent to obscure, broken towers for a harsh winter? Brothers having to trust Wildlings at their backs? That means more pissed off officers. Heck, maybe Bowen Marsh will be faced with the same decision as Slynt - go to a distant tower, or lose your head. Maybe Marsh decides the third way is to take Jon's life instead.

Maybe Jon will try to put Tormund in a leadership position in the Watch. That would lead to even more resentment.

If they do the pink letter, then Jon deciding to go south for purely selfish reasons - to save his sister, which has nothing what so ever to do with the Watch - will be the final straw.

They've also set it up so Jon will have his own following, not to mention the Wildlings who saw him kill a WW and were rescued by him, so the Wall will fall upon utter chaos as we expect at the end of ADwD. Wun Wun will probably go nuts, Jon's supporters will attempt to defend him, some of the Wildlings included.

[TheWhiteRabbit]

My personal crackpot theory:

Olly will attempt to assassinate Tormund and Jon will grab him and then FTW happens unbeknownst to Olly.

[tjmarsh]

I think the Pink Letter is Mandatory. Jon reads the letter and chooses to go help his family when the NW need him the most. You know what the NW does with deserters too.

When reading I was never sure that JS was actually dead, I thought we was going to go into a Bran like comma. Either way though, at the end of this series that wall is coming down and the disbanding of the NW so that will release JS of his duty there to peruse other ventures... Lord Of Winterfell, King of the North Like his brother/cousin put in his will.

[DireNorthWolf]

The big problem with stabbing Jon now is that he was proved correct by going to Hardhome. The WW turned the remaining people into wights and it could have been much worse. Jon now has the loyalty of Wildlings and the practical proof of his decision realized. It would seem that killing him now is a shortsighted decision as the real enemy has shown themselves tos the Nights Watch.

[Tagganaro]

The big problem with stabbing Jon now is that he was proved correct by going to Hardhome. The WW turned the remaining people into wights and it could have been much worse. Jon now has the loyalty of Wildlings and the practical proof of his decision realized. It would seem that killing him now is a shortsighted decision as the real enemy has shown themselves tos the Nights Watch.

It's the same thing in the books though...Jon is correct, and killing him (especially while he is surrounded by loyal wildlings which outnumber NW ((4 to 1 I think if I remember correctly? 10 to 1?)) is extremely short-sighted.

But yeah, anyone who isn't a racist like Bowen Marsh or a total idiot like Othell Yarwyck ("We're gonna get slaughtered by an army of pigs") knows that the real enemy is the Others and that the wildlings are needed behind the Wall away from where the Others can make more wights.

[lakin1013]

The only problem I have with FTW at ep 10 is as soon as we see Kit return to filming for next season, then don't we already know he is still alive? Will they have to hide him? Or of course, the unthinkable - that Jon Snow will be killed, and become totally dead.

[TheWhiteRabbit]

If Jon Snow is really dead I might have to burn my future copy of The Winds of Winter.

I've said this many times, but it just wouldn't be right for JS to be dead. There's still too much that has been left unfinished. None of the mystery surrounding this character has been revealed yet, and none of it would matter if he is dead. It would be so cheap. I believe that the way Dance ended was to pave the way for Snow's exit from the Nights Watch. When he regains consciousness the watch will no longer exist.

My proof? Martin's original letter to his publisher. Yes, many things have changed since that original letter was published, but if you look at the clues in the published books Jon Snow should have an important roll in how this story ends.

[Stonehearted Snake]

I'm not sure that Olly is as obvious as we book readers think he is. From talking to my Unsullied friend and family and listening to podcasts by Unsullied, they are basically just now starting to pick up that something ain't right with that kid. But no one suspects him of outright violence, that I've talked to. More like just trouble.

That being said I think if it is just Olly or is led by Olly, it's a terrible change and loses all the emotional significance. I mean, Olly really cannot say, "For the Watch!" More like, "For my village!" But I guess the end goal is still met.

[Polo]

My personal crackpot theory:

Olly will attempt to assassinate Tormund and Jon will grab him and then FTW happens unbeknownst to Olly.

:agree:

but, that would be really good writing. and......yeah, we'll see.

[The Drunkard]

Bowen and co. don't kill Jon for playing nice the wildlings. Though they voice their displeasure they remain loyal for all of Jon's conciliatory decisions. Only when Jon decides to lead an army of wildlings against the Warden of the North do they attack him, as that is, effectively, the exact opposite of what the LC should be doing.

So, that they've seen the 'true enemy' on the show is fairly irrelevant if the events go down the same way, with Jon finding out about Sansa/Stannis and deciding to march his wildlings south.

[Lord Hanna]

Et tu, Olly? It wouldn't surprise me if Olly was merely a red herring. D&D have been beating us over the head with possibility that it would be Olly, but it may just be misdirection. I won't be surprised either way.

They are doing this show more for the non-book readers, who do not know Jon gets stabbed. To them, it's not being beaten over the head with it.

[ShadowKitteh]

They are doing this show more for the non-book readers, who do not know Jon gets stabbed. To them, it's not being beaten over the head with it.

My Unsullied laughed when Sam said, "Don't worry about Jon...."

They said, "Worried? He's gonna try to shoot Jon, like he shot Ygritte. You can see it coming half a parsec away.... Just like the foreshadowing for Ygritte."

So....yeah.....just a little.