Are you guys think that Stannis lose the battle of winterfell? (Spoiler)

[kimim]

I'm really torn here. Without the show, I would have said that Stannis had decent odds of beating the Boltons. Now I'm not so sure, as I don't believe the show would diverge to that extent from the novels; this would be a bigger change than sending Sansa to Winterfell, as they're changing the arc of the northern story.

Re Stannis sacrificing Shireen: Stannis, Manderly, Umbers suffer devastating defeat. Stannis returns to Castle Black, where he discovers Jon is dead, and the place is in chaos. It will take months for Massey to return with the sellswords. Meanwhile, Stannis knows that Ramsay will move on Castle Black, which can't be defended from the south. Davos is still away, and Stannis is left with Mel as adviser. She wants him to sacrifice Shireen.

Caught between sacrificing his daughter and total defeat, Stannis sacrifices Shireen.

[John Doe]

Stannis sacrificing Shireen makes no sense right now. He has Asha and Theon in his hands, both could be easily burned and both have kingsblood in their veins. It could be even argued Arnolf Karstark has kingsblood.

Or any Bolton, should he manage to capture one.

[KingStoneheart]

I don't think he will lose like he did with the Battle of the Blackwater. He will win the overall battle but I think that he himself will succumb to his wounds a few days afterwards and his army will suffer many losses. So it will be a pretty fair battle but the Boltons will just lose. This means that when Jon is revived, he can lead the wildlings south to Winterfell, gather all Northern Lords to his cause and rally Stannis' remaining (Kingless) army.

[haemonculus]

Renly was going to use a larger force to murder Stannis [...].

Not at all. In fact Renly was going to use his larger force to defend himself and his castle from Stannis' attack. That Stannis was basically chance-less and most likely going to die (thanks to his unyielding nature) is not his fault at all.

I also think it is rather clear, that Stannis knew of (at least the raw outlines) Melisandre's plan to kill Renly. Otherwise, that is my take on the character, he would have not engaged that way at that point in time.

On top of that the assassination happened during an agreed-upon ceasefire, which is doubly disgusting.

[Winter's Cold]

Exactly. People are always whining about him burning people when those people are guilty of treason or other such crimes. Renly was going to use a larger force to murder Stannis and steal his birth right for Christs sake. Killing him was the only way for Stannis himself to survive.

Renly declared himself king while Stannis was sitting at dragonstone. Besides he has no proof that Robert's children are bastards, therefore he is an usurper and traitor to Joffrey. Stannis had also abandoned Robert to the Lannisters because he was upset that Robert did not name him hand. Stannis was also contemplating burning Edric Storm but thankfully Davos saved him. Stannis has a long history of actions that benefit himself but harm his family. It's likely that he'll murder Shireen as well if it gives him an advantage.

So far Stannis has failed at Blackwater. The majority of the Stormlands vassals have bent the knee or lost their castles. He has lost control of Dragonstone and Storm's End is now under siege. Stannis is the worst Baratheon lord the Stormlands have had.

[John Doe]

Not at all. In fact Renly was going to use his larger force to defend himself and his castle from Stannis' attack. That Stannis was basically chance-less and most likely going to die (thanks to his unyielding nature) is not his fault at all.

I also think it is rather clear, that Stannis knew of (at least the raw outlines) Melisandre's plan to kill Renly. Otherwise, that is my take on the character, he would have not engaged that way at that point in time.

On top of that the assassination happened during an agreed-upon ceasefire, which is doubly disgusting.

It is renlys fault that he tried to steal Stannis' birth right. Renly was the attacker in this situation, not Stannis. Fanboyism should have it's limits.

And why should have Stannis lied to Davos, in such a convincing fashion nonetheless.

[haemonculus]

It is renlys fault that he tried to steal Stannis' birth right. Renly was the attacker in this situation, not Stannis. Fanboyism should have it's limits.

And why should have Stannis lied to Davos, in such a convincing fashion nonetheless.

The reasons for Renly's decision to take matters into his own hands would be too far off topic, but in any case the attacker is still Stannis, since he attacked Renly's castle, while Renly did not, as far as we know, even think about attacking Stannis at all. Fanboyism should have it's limits indeed.

As for why Stannis lied to Davos, I don't know. My guess would be he was perhaps using the power of semantics (maybe Mel only told him she would "take care of the problem" or somethign, but come on, he is no idiot). Anyways, what is the alternative here? Does a suicidally stupid attack, he just happend to avoid due to Mel ex Machina, against a vastly superior force make him look better? Sure, if it makes you happy, I guess.

[The Drunkard]

Anyways, what is the alternative here?

The alternative is what's written. Melisandre sees a future in which Renly destroys Stannis at King's Landing and a future in which Stannis wins the best part of his brother's power at Storm's End. He chooses the latter.

[Sullen]

It is renlys fault that he tried to steal Stannis' birth right. Renly was the attacker in this situation, not Stannis. Fanboyism should have it's limits.

And why should have Stannis lied to Davos, in such a convincing fashion nonetheless.

Renly is stealing Joffrey's birthright, not Stannis's. In-universe, Stannis is not the legal heir until he can prove so. Renly was expecting Stannis to join him until Stannis attacked Storm's End, Stannis was clearly the attacker in this situation.

Also, as to Stannis not planning to kill Renly, have you read the prologue? Cressen, the only person to ever love Stannis, freaking dies trying to stop him from murdering Renly.

And why would he lie to Davos? Because he cares about how people (himself included) see him, that's also why he keeps going on about being dutiful despite always asking for more after accomplishing his duty (I should've had Storm's End, I should've been Hand, I should've been King), and abandoning Robert to die in his time of need. In case you had not noticed, he has rather a high opinion of himself, he wants to be special, why else would anyone so eagerly believe that he was the Messiah after a foreign witch tells him just that?

The alternative is what's written. Melisandre sees a future in which Renly destroys Stannis at King's Landing and a future in which Stannis wins the best part of his brother's power at Storm's End. He chooses the latter.

So he blindly goes to Storm's End with no actual idea as to what is going to happen? That seems to be an awful lot of blind faith coming from a self-professed skeptic/the greatest military leader in Westeros.

[Dejection]

'Do not desecrate my brother's corpse'

Did Renly say this or not? He was a usurping piece of shit ready to become a kinslayer.

[John Doe]

Renly is stealing Joffrey's birthright, not Stannis's. In-universe, Stannis is not the legal heir until he can prove so. Renly was expecting Stannis to join him until Stannis attacked Storm's End, Stannis was clearly the attacker in this situation.

Also, as to Stannis not planning to kill Renly, have you read the prologue? Cressen, the only person to ever love Stannis, freaking dies trying to stop him from murdering Renly.

And why would he lie to Davos? Because he cares about how people (himself included) see him, that's also why he keeps going on about being dutiful despite always asking for more after accomplishing his duty (I should've had Storm's End, I should've been Hand, I should've been King), and abandoning Robert to die in his time of need. In case you had not noticed, he has rather a high opinion of himself, he wants to be special, why else would anyone so eagerly believe that he was the Messiah after a foreign witch tells him just that?

It's a feudal society, if you deny Joffrey's claim, Stannis is next in line. Renly skipped everyone between Joffrey's claim and his own, which means Stannis was skipped too.

Cressen does not die trying to protect Renly, he dies because he hates Melisandre and tries to poison her. Stannis is not the kind of guy to lie in Davos' face, and even if you do believe that, he does not seem to be the king of guy to lie convincingly either.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

You guys are still discussing the upcoming Battle of Winterfell, rite? Just checking.

[haemonculus]

The alternative is what's written. Melisandre sees a future in which Renly destroys Stannis at King's Landing and a future in which Stannis wins the best part of his brother's power at Storm's End. He chooses the latter.

But that is a completely stupid thing to do, wihtout any idea as to how his victory would perhaps come about. It would mean that Stannis completely, and blindly trusts in Melisandre and her powers, at a point in time when he has not much ground to do so.

Then he agrees to bone her, without asking questions, and later learns she used the shadow-baby born from that act, to kill Renly during ceasefire and he is like: "Well, that woman just did alien and sinister magic, using my body, without telling me a thing and killed my brother at a time, he had my word not to come to harm. And all that without consulting me. Seems reasonable, I will continue to trust her advice!"

I think not.

[Sullen]

It's a feudal society, if you deny Joffrey's claim, Stannis is next in line. Renly skipped everyone between Joffrey's claim and his own, which means Stannis was skipped too.

Cressen does not die trying to protect Renly, he dies because he hates Melisandre and tries to poison her. Stannis is not the kind of guy to lie in Davos' face, and even if you do believe that, he does not seem to be the king of guy to lie convincingly either.

Renly's claim doesn't derive from the law of succession, he's conquering Westeros. He's usurping Joffrey's title, not Stannis, if anything, Stannis should be grateful as he would be Renly's direct heir should Renly win the throne. Renly's push to power would have actually advantaged Stannis, in case you didn't notice.

Yes, Cressen died trying to stop Renly's murder. Reread his chapter, his breaking point is when he realizes Stannis and Melissandre plan to kill him and Stannis completely dismisses him when he claims that kinslaying is immoral, one of the greatest wrongs a man can commit. He's not simply trying to murder Melissandre out of simple dislike, as you seem to be implying.

And why wouldn't Stannis be the kind of person to lie? He's been dishonest about important matters before, once more wouldn't be that different. Also, that's the thing, he doesn't lie convincingly, he's lying more for his own sake in that scene than for Davos's.

[Dejection]

Very convenient switching back and forth from justifying Renly' shitty campaign from a moral perspective and then when you can't, quickly hide behind the 'might makes right' and 'hes a conqueror' argument both of which offer no defense for his actions that wouldn't apply for Stannis too.

And yeah, Stannis' famous quotes where he basically shows his true character and inner self, are just for the sake of PR, because he totally cares about what others think about him hence his negative perspective on like 90% of the Houses of Westeros, his anti social and stern, cold demeanor and dislike for the political world of intrigues. No, it is not in character for Stannis to lie to show himself in a better light. You've been reading a different Stannis if you think that is the case. He speaks what he wants to and not with the intention of pleasing others.

[Sullen]

Very convenient switching back and forth from justifying Renly' shitty campaign from a moral perspective and then when you can't, quickly hide behind the 'might makes right' and 'hes a conqueror' argument both of which offer no defense for his actions that wouldn't apply for Stannis too.

Renly only crowns himself to defend himself from a Lannister-backed rule (we later learn his suspicions were entirely correct, Cersei was planning to have him murdered), and sure as hell doesn't plan on murdering his brother before said brother attacked him and made his intentions to kill him clear.

Renly expected cooperation with Stannis, Stannis was planning for him to die before Renly even hears of his claim.

And yeah, Stannis' famous quotes where he basically shows his true character and inner self, are just for the sake of PR, because he totally cares about what others think about him hence his negative perspective on like 90% of the Houses of Westeros, his anti social and stern, cold demeanor and dislike for the political world of intrigues. No, it is not in character for Stannis to lie to show himself in a better light. You've been reading a different Stannis if you think that is the case. He speaks what he wants to and not with the intention of pleasing others.

I don't think you quite understood what I meant. Stannis cares about what he thinks of himself. He wants to be the dutiful man, he wants to be the reasonable skeptic, he wants to be the hero King, he wants to be special and will go through hell if that's what it takes for him to be recognized.

A dutiful man would have told Robert about the incest and wouldn't have fled King's Landing until his King's death, no matter what he thought Robert would have said.

A skeptical man would've have blindly marched on Renly, as you suggested you did, and would've have gobbled the "You're the Messiah!" shtick so fast.

A hero wouldn't have let his older brother die and planned to murder his younger brother as well.

[Ser Eric]

And why would he lie to Davos? Because he cares about how people (himself included) see him, that's also why he keeps going on about being dutiful despite always asking for more after accomplishing his duty (I should've had Storm's End, I should've been Hand, I should've been King), and abandoning Robert to die in his time of need. In case you had not noticed, he has rather a high opinion of himself, he wants to be special, why else would anyone so eagerly believe that he was the Messiah after a foreign witch tells him just that?

You seem to have an axe to grind against STannis.

There's no reason to suspect he's lying to Davos. He's often very open and brutally honest with Davos in a way he's with no one else. In fact, the fact that the conversation is with Davos is GRRM driving home the point that Stannis is being completely truthful.

He did not leave Robert in the time of his need. He left because he feared for his own life. That was a very smart move if anything.

[The Drunkard]

So he blindly goes to Storm's End with no actual idea as to what is going to happen? That seems to be an awful lot of blind faith coming from a self-professed skeptic/the greatest military leader in Westeros.

But that is a completely stupid thing to do, wihtout any idea as to how his victory would perhaps come about. It would mean that Stannis completely, and blindly trusts in Melisandre and her powers, at a point in time when he has not much ground to do so.

He has no less proof for her visions being correct than he does for her shadowbabies existing and being effective. Any standard of proof required for the former is also required for the latter, yet I've never seen this "but how does he knoooooow" question regarding the shadowbaby.

[Dejection]

Renly only crowns himself to defend himself from a Lannister-backed rule (we later learn his suspicions were entirely correct, Cersei was planning to have him murdered), and sure as hell doesn't plan on murdering his brother before said brother attacked him and made his intentions to kill him clear.

Renly expected cooperation with Stannis, Stannis was planning for him to die before Renly even hears of his claim.

I don't think you quite understood what I meant. Stannis cares about what he thinks of himself. He wants to be the dutiful man, he wants to be the reasonable skeptic, he wants to be the hero King, he wants to be special and will go through hell if that's what it takes for him to be recognized.

A dutiful man would have told Robert about the incest and wouldn't have fled King's Landing until his King's death, no matter what he thought Robert would have said.

A skeptical man would've have blindly marched on Renly, as you suggested you did, and would've have gobbled the "You're the Messiah!" shtick so fast.

A hero wouldn't have let his older brother die and planned to murder his younger brother as well.

Poor criticisms of Stannis as per usual.

Renly wasnt crowning himself to defend himself from Lannister rule - that's so laughably ridiculous. He did it because the Tyrells ego pumped him so they could find their way to the Iron Throne.

Stannis telling Robert about the incest in King's Landing? What if Robert didn't believe him? Plus the Lannisters had great influence and strength in KL at the time. Stannis is no fool to openly declare war from a position of next to no strength at all.

I've literally no clue what your skeptical man point even means.

His 'younger brother' you are really going to go back to Renly again? There's no defending Renly. if he was a conqueror (might makes right argument) he got defeated plain and simple. If he was claiming his rights (moral perspective) well to his knowledge he was stealing his nephew's birthright. Completely faulty logic.

[Sullen]

You seem to have an axe to grind against STannis.

There's no reason to suspect he's lying to Davos. He's often very open and brutally honest with Davos in a way he's with no one else. In fact, the fact that the conversation is with Davos is GRRM driving home the point that Stannis is being completely truthful.

He did not leave Robert in the time of his need. He left because he feared for his own life. That was a very smart move if anything.

I don't have an axe to grind against Stannis, I have an axe to grind against the "St-Stannis" perception many have of him. I actually love Stannis, he's one the better written characters.

Davos is Stannis's view of what a rightful and good individual is, of course he has reason to lie to him. If he can convince Davos that he is innocent/righteous/dutiful, than he has to be. (In his own eyes)

He did leave Robert in his time of need, Cersei even mentions in her PoV that Stannis leaving King's Landing meant she had to kill Robert sooner than she thought, before Stannis grew a pair of balls and told Robert of the incest. And yes, it was a smart move if your end goal is self-preservation, not so much if it is to be honorable/dutiful. He shirked his duty and committed high treason by withholding vital information from his King, information that put his liege's life in danger.