Are you guys think that Stannis lose the battle of winterfell? (Spoiler)

[Ramsay Gimp]

lol

It is hard discussing the series with people who purely see the series as goodies vs baddies.

The Karstark men with Arnolf have clearly chosen his leadership over that of Alys. He, and his sons, are still part of the Karstark noble family. They are not going to be too pleased when Stannis executes them.

We know this from both Robbs words:

Robb shook his head. "Even if Harrion were that sort, he could never openly forgive his father's killer. His own men would turn on him. These are northmen, Uncle. The north remembers."

and the actions of the Karstark men afterwards. They are not going to be happy with Stannis executing the men they were following and fight his enemies for him, especially when their are plenty of Karstark troops fighting for Roose already.

If all the Karstarks still serve Stannis after he executes all the Karstark men, it will be a plot hole. It directly contradicts that quote from Robb

I don't think that Stannis burning cannibals is going to cause the northmen to abandon him because I don't consider the northmen to be fighting for Stannis. The Wull made it clear that he and his men are there for Ned's little girl. Stannis's army is also made up of survivors from the battle where Ramsay killed Rodrik so these people are well aware of the Boltons treachery. Not to mention that Manderly knows what went down at the RW.

But the religious Southerners in Stannis's army have turned antagonistic towards the Northmen, and vice versa. Both have accused the others' gods of being responsible for the blizzard. Tensions are high, arguably just as high as they were inside Winterfell, especially now with the arrest of the Karstarks

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Stannis already has the letter where Alys testifies that Arnolf is in cahoots with the Boltons. Not that hard for the remaining Karstarks and Northerners to pick a side once that information comes out. He betrayed his own family and the Starks as a whole.

It is a letter from Jon, not Alys.

Besides, those Karstark men had already chosen to follow Arnolf. He and his sons are not strangers to them, but established as part of the Royal family. While Alys may not have wanted to marry a cousin I doubt the average Karstark footsoldier cared.

[Richard Hoffman]

I've been thinking a lot about this since the finale and it's still very possible Stannis wins VS the Boltons but loses VS the Vale. ***TWOW SAMPLE CHAPTER SPOILERS*** Sansa is setting up to marry Harry the Heir and if you remember in Feast LittleFinger says something like imagine when you come out on the day of your wedding with auburn hair and the direwolf on your cloak, they will trip over each other to be the first to pledge you their swords. In the show LF travels to Kings Landing to dupe Cersei into letting him march, so either way Sansa will end up taking back Winterfell, whether from Stannis or the Boltons, I think it's obvious she will be the queen that takes down Cersei. The Vale had been itching to flock to Robb Stark and only held back because of Lysa, imagine how they'll feel when they see Sansa alive, and as LF said the last time the north and the vale worked together they took down the continents biggest dynasty.

[Forlyng]

I think from the way its set up that it will be an inconclusive battle with heavy casualties on both sides, Manderly\ Umber defections with the Boltons retreating to Winterfell and Stannis, learning Davos gas gone to Skagos to get Rickon will retreat to the wall to wait til they have the heir to the north. That's where possible Shireen sacrifice\Jon resurrection could take place. The rest of the north might learn this and defect away from the Boltons but they'll still hold Winterfell.

[Forlyng]

Then as previously mentioned, Sansa and the Valemen will march north and possibly join up to oust the Boltons and help fight the White Walkers. Asha might go back to the Iron Islands with Theon to get their support as Euron and Victarion are away

[Stormland's Fury]

It is a letter from Jon, not Alys.

Besides, those Karstark men had already chosen to follow Arnolf. He and his sons are not strangers to them, but established as part of the Royal family. While Alys may not have wanted to marry a cousin I doubt the average Karstark footsoldier cared.

And Jon (a Stark bastard every Northerner knows) has been killed and Alys is at the wall with him. The whole point was that they trust Stannis because of Jon. Of course those Arnolf men follow him why wouldn't they.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

And Jon (a Stark bastard every Northerner knows) has been killed and Alys is at the wall with him. The whole point was that they trust Stannis because of Jon. Of course those Arnolf men follow him why wouldn't they.

The Northerners have joined him in retaking Deepwood Motte and fighting Ironborn. So far so good. They are also on board for freeing Ned's daughter, retaking Winterfell and defeating Roose, Ramsay and the hated Freys.

Stannis executing the Karstarks and their men might give some of these Northerners pause for thought, that he may kill other Northmen who will not accept him as King.

You asked for possible reasons why the Northerners could turn against him. Killing the Karstarks might lose him some of his Northern supporters who have more in common with Arnolf than they do a Southerner who burns weirwood trees.

[Stormland's Fury]

Stannis executing the Karstarks and their men might give some of these Northerners pause for thought, that he may kill other Northmen who will not accept him as King.

You asked for possible reasons why the Northerners could turn against him. Killing the Karstarks might lose him some of his Northern supporters who have more in common with Arnolf than they do a Southerner who burns weirwood trees.

They accepted him as king and Stannis wants to execute them for treason for helping the Boltons and he has proof from Jon. That might not be enough, fair enough.

But at this point I still don't see why they would dislike him. He hasn't burned any weirwoods as of yet and is considering to execute Theon instead, something they exactly want him to do.

[Consigliere]

But the religious Southerners in Stannis's army have turned antagonistic towards the Northmen, and vice versa. Both have accused the others' gods of being responsible for the blizzard. Tensions are high, arguably just as high as they were inside Winterfell, especially now with the arrest of the Karstarks

This is another reason why sending out the Frey and Manderly forces works in Stannis's favour as well as Theon falling into his lap and giving him a heads up on the attack. Instead of having to deal with these growing tensions they prepare for battle. The Karstark situation is a tricky one. Perhaps Arnolf not being a true lord, only castellan, will be a factor.

[Stannis'_Barber]

Only thing I can think of is that she got a look of realization on her face when he said "do your duty"

I agree. I think she remembers her oath to Cat. Deciding it is more important to find the Stark children than her revenge. Also realizing Stannis could be useful in this.

[Gneisenau]

Personally I think Stannis takes Winterfell, and the northern lords go "k thanks Stannis, now die"

[Makk]

I can't make up my mind on this one. Although it initially looked hopeless, it is clear that Stannis has all the pieces he needs to take Winterfell. But it just reminds me too much of Blackwater, and I have a feeling that something will go wrong. I guess the show is a minor spoiler about which way it will go, but at the same time I think it's entirely possible that the show is going to diverge even more wildly and at best it is only a minor hint. If I had to go out on a limb then I think Stannis will take Winterfell but find out that Shireen has been burned by Melisandre, and will return to the wall having given up all thoughts of the crown.

[Slowpoke Martin]

Stannis executing the Karstarks and their men might give some of these Northerners pause for thought, that he may kill other Northmen who will not accept him as King.

That's where you're wrong. Stannis plans on executing them because they planned to betray Stannis and were working with the Boltons so they could become the heirs to Karhold.

Any northerner with rational thinking would not turn on Stannis because the Karstarks were planning on not only betraying him but also their own family.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I've been thinking a lot about this since the finale and it's still very possible Stannis wins VS the Boltons but loses VS the Vale. ***TWOW SAMPLE CHAPTER SPOILERS*** Sansa is setting up to marry Harry the Heir and if you remember in Feast LittleFinger says something like imagine when you come out on the day of your wedding with auburn hair and the direwolf on your cloak, they will trip over each other to be the first to pledge you their swords. In the show LF travels to Kings Landing to dupe Cersei into letting him march, so either way Sansa will end up taking back Winterfell, whether from Stannis or the Boltons, I think it's obvious she will be the queen that takes down Cersei. The Vale had been itching to flock to Robb Stark and only held back because of Lysa, imagine how they'll feel when they see Sansa alive, and as LF said the last time the north and the vale worked together they took down the continents biggest dynasty.

Daenerys will face Stannis at the Trident after she, Bronze Yohn and Timett sort out Petyr and Harold Hardyng in the Vale.

[Lost Melnibonean]

That's where you're wrong. Stannis plans on executing them because they planned to betray Stannis and were working with the Boltons so they could become the heirs to the Last Hearth.

Any northerner with rational thinking would not turn on Stannis because the Karstarks were planning on not only betraying him but also their own family.

Any northerner would know that no Karstark would ever be heir to the Last Hearth. :P

[Slowpoke Martin]

Why does everyone seem to think all the Northern Lords will betray Stannis? Every single complaint from northerners has been that the south does not care about them.

Here comes Stannis, who has no wealth and hardly any fighting men, to DEFEND the north from the wildling army ( something even the northern lords did NOT do).

Then he goes about routing out the Ironborn from the north, the Ironborn who not only attacked the north but are also hated by northerners.

Stannis, after doing all this for the north, still intends on defeating the Bolton/Frey coalition and restoring the Starks.

IF and I do mean a massive IF, the Northerners turn on Stannis after all he has done, northern honor would mean absolutely NOTHING and their word means NOTHING!

[thelittledragonthatcould]

That's where you're wrong. Stannis plans on executing them because they planned to betray Stannis and were working with the Boltons so they could become the heirs to Karhold.

Any northerner with rational thinking would not turn on Stannis because the Karstarks were planning on not only betraying him but also their own family.

Yes, because that's what armies do. They think things through rationally.

I didn't say betray. They have sworn no allegiance to Stannis, he is not their king.

And the Karstarks are not working with the Boltons to become the heirs of Karhold. They don't need Roose for that. Westeros is a misogynistic world, female heirs are easily replaced by make uncles and cousins.

[The Stags Man]

We have answers to most of what people view as mysteries already.

In the WoW sample chapter Stannis already hints that rumours of his death will arise after the battle. Clearly, as Ser Arthur Hightower says, he is deliberately planning to fake his own death.

Also, we already know why Theon and Jeyne are not captured in the aftermath - Stannis has sent them with Justin Massey to the Wall.

Stannis's ruse is: Trap the Frey knights on the brittle ice, drown them all, and then somehow pretend to have died in the battle. This will drop the Boltons' guard, while at the same time costing them around 2000 Frey troops.

So, Freys dead, then Ramsay arrives and achieves an apparent victory, though apparently at some cost, given the reference to the battle being bloody .

That is the Battle of Ice done. Ramsay thinks he has won, but Stannis has actually achieved the strategic victory, and is secretly on his way to Winterfell with the bulk of his forces intact.

What happens then is unknown. In my view it all hinges on the secret way into Winterfell that Mance's spearwives were trying to extract from Theon.

I believe Stannis will have some men impersonate the Karstark's men, these men will present Lightbringer to Roose/Ramsey claiming it as proof of their victory over Stannis and gaining entry into winterfell. Once inside they will open the gates or help with a mutiny that will allow Stannis to enter winterfell. Once Stannis is inside winterfell victory is almost assured, remember how scared everyone was when the Umbers started playing drums outside, they where like 'Stannis! Stannis! Stannis has come to put us all to the sword!' The simple fact is the average Northern man fears Stannis and mix that with the element of surprise, and Norther lords mutinying; most soldiers and lords for that matter will try to flee or surrender. I just don't see many of them trying to defend the Boltons to the last man, even among all the Dreadfort men if they don't have clear orders.

[MacReady]

I feel like the book foreshadowed pretty well that Roose was losing control of the situation inside of Winterfell. Doesn't Theon even point out fear in Roose expression? I feel like a the Northern Lords are going to mutiny inside the castle.

At least I hope they will. I just don't see how Stannis loses this battle and doesn't continue on the in story. Haven't there have been foreshadowing scenes that imply Stannis, with Manderly's fleet, sailing on King's Landing and Stannis fighting Dany on the Trident? How can they do that if he loses to the Boltons? I could believe that Justin Massey actually got the 20k sell swords and is fighting on in Shireen's name but D&D already spoiled Shireen getting burned in the book, which most of us expected I think anyway.

I'm probably looking forward to finding out what happens in this battle just as much as I want to find out about Jon Snow's fate.

[falcotron]

I don't think that the battle has been set up in a way that it is a foregone conclusion for either a Stannis or Bolton victory.

Agreed. In fact, for a soldier from each side, it looks like a foregone conclusion for the opposition to win. And it's hard to see why either side is wrong, even though obviously one of them has to be. Which is some pretty clever writing.

(And I don't think it's an accident that it parallels the situation in Meereen. But of course we know that battle will turn on the sudden appearance of multiple unexpected third parties arriving to turn the tides, which obviously isn't going to happen in Winterfell.)