Balon Greyjoys master plan

[Chaircat Meow]

How does that make sense? Balon attacked Tywin without provocation when Tywin was part of the seven kingdoms with allies all over mainland Westeros. He was not afraid. He did not bet on Tywin winning this one but on himself

Then when Tywin's fighting for the throne and has no allies (one house fighting against 4 great houses with two neutral) all of a sudden Balon declares independence again (this undeniably makes him Tywin's enemy) and yet bets that Tywin will win against all the odds even thought he's already after suffering a crushing defeat.

This makes literally no sense and I don't see how anyone can say it does. I would say the exact same thing if for example he attacked Dorne in this situation.

Add this to the fact that the text indicates that it was Robert and Ned, along with Stannis and Pater Redwyne who took down the rebellion and his fear of Tywin makes zero sense

Because he's going to rebel no matter what, but respects Tywin enough not to fight him if he doesn't have to. Moreover, Theon plan was to try and gain land in the west. Balon just burnt Tywin's fleet the first time.

[Barty]

Because he's going to rebel no matter what, but respects Tywin enough not to fight him if he doesn't have to. Moreover, Theon plan was to try and gain land in the west. Balon just burnt Tywin's fleet the first time.

The point was that he publicly attacked the Lannisters. I dont think Tywin's reaction would have been different had the IB decided to capture some land instead of burning the fleet. He was still going to see Balon on his knees or dead.

Also Balon declared himself independent - at a time when Tywin Lannister's grandon was King and he himself was Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm. Brilliant way to not piss off the Lion.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Agreed. Reading through game of thrones a few nights ago when the king journeys through the neck it shows just how inhospitable it is. This and the bog devils make it incredibly difficult for anyone to hold and I think the ironborn lost a few hundred men in the attempt while the north lost the initial garrison

More like a thousand Ironborn, give or take.

While North didn't have any initial garrison of notable strength.

[Chaircat Meow]

The point was that he publicly attacked the Lannisters. I dont think Tywin's reaction would have been different had the IB decided to capture some land instead of burning the fleet. He was still going to see Balon on his knees or dead.

Also Balon declared himself independent - at a time when Tywin Lannister's grandon was King and he himself was Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm. Brilliant way to not piss off the Lion.

Tywin did not seem especially outraged by Balon's antics in SoS.

[Barty]

Tywin did not seem especially outraged by Balon's antics in SoS.

Doesnt mean he was gonna tolerate Balon remaining independent. Stannis was a higher priority than Balon for him - But he was gonna get down to Balon soon enough.

[Frey Pie]

Because he's going to rebel no matter what, but respects Tywin enough not to fight him if he doesn't have to. Moreover, Theon plan was to try and gain land in the west. Balon just burnt Tywin's fleet the first time.

Still makes no sense. Balon went for independence. Tywin is not going to leave balon take a chunk of the kingdom with him. If Balon knows Tywin well enough to fear him (non sensical) he knows him well enough to know he won't accept anything less then Robert or Aerys did.

Tywin couldnt have hoped for a better outcome. He has 4 enemies in robb, balon, Stannis and Renly. And what do they all do? Start attacking eachother

[Frey Pie]

More like a thousand Ironborn, give or take.

While North didn't have any initial garrison of notable strength.

Which makes there degradation over time all the more noticeable

200 men I believe as ordered by Ned in Got, or were these later moved?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Which makes there degradation over time all the more noticeable

200 men I believe as ordered by Ned in Got, or were these later moved?

Indeed. 95% losses is quite noticeable. /understatement

I believe they marched with Robb or reinforced Roose. Anyway, 200 isn't much.

[Ser Eric]

Dude, you are talking absolute, utter, abject, shit.

Read. the. book. before you start whinging about Balon being dumb.

Balon was retarded. I'm sorry that bothers you but it's the truth. Either you put forward some convincing argument or stop talking shite because that's all you've been doing so far/,

And I couldn't give two shits about the show before you pull out that card.

[Ser Eric]

He didn't have a choice but to attack the lannister fleet in the first rebellion. They were Robert's supporters; he couldn't raid the seven kingdoms without Robert's lords responding, so you might as well strike first. The second time round he could get away with not fighting Tywin.

More nonsense. Didn't have a choice? Christ on a bike, you don't half talk some shite.

Tywin was weakest as he had ever been, weaker than when Balon burnt his fleet. It was absolutely the right time to attack Tywin and the Westerlands. It's blatantly clear.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

More nonsense. Didn't have a choice? Christ on a bike, you don't half talk some shite.

Tywin was weakest as he had ever been, weaker than when Balon burnt his fleet. It was absolutely the right time to attack Tywin and the Westerlands. It's blatantly clear.

Which realm had a navy defending its coast? That's right the West, not the North.

Which realm had a history of taking the fight to the Iron Islands and getting revenge? That's right the West, not the North.

Which realm had a capital that had never been take? Once again it is the West.

Which realms army was closer to home? The West once again.

Balon took the easier option. While there is not as much to gain from the North, there is also less casualties in taking it. Pointless trying to take the North if Balon accumulates too many casualties and can not protect himself afterwards.

The North was the obvious choice.

[Frey Pie]

Indeed. 95% losses is quite noticeable. /understatement

I believe they marched with Robb or reinforced Roose. Anyway, 200 isn't much.

ha ya poor choice of words

[thelittledragonthatcould]

But you ignore the most important point, again; a bet against Tywin is a bet against himself, Tywin isn't Paxter Redwyne, he isn't about to let his grandson inherit only part of his 'father's' kingdom.

I think Balon had learnt his lesson, that gaining more land was more important than a Crown.

We see that it is Balon who initiates talks of peace with Tywin. Someone who is deadset on independence would not do that. I think he would have eventually negotiated for less with the Crown officially making parts of the North Ironborn territory.

It is what I got from both Balons raven and Asha, Ballons chosen heir, actual plans for the North. Balon took advantage of the war to gain more land but needed to claim 'independence' to motivate his army.

Which would all be fine except for the fact that 14 (?) Years beforehand he attacked tywins home without a second thought.

He attacked his Navy, not his home. And look what happened when Balon attacked Tywin's navy. He got punished for it big time. He probably learnt his lesson.

[Viking]

People need to remember that Balon's plan was to attack the north and use moat caelin to keep robb (the boy) from going north. Before Theon takes Winterfell Robb isn't really all that concerned. Roderick Cassell is dealing with them, he has enough men, he has heavy horse and Moat Caelin can't be defended on the north side. Do note, Theon attacks Winterfell on his own initiative AND with a plan only he could come up with, having been raised there. Furthermore Balon can have no idea that Robb doesn't just march his men to Gulltown, get on ships for White Harbour and come at moat caelin from the north. Even with only a small force.

Balon has no way of knowing that Theon can or even wants to take Winterfell with a handfull of men. He has no way of knowing that Lysa won't let her nephew through to Gulltown to get around the neck. This is of course way before he has no way of knowing that Tywin Lannister will actually deal with him given that he's already doing everything Tywin wants.

Sadly this is bad plotting. It's a whole series of completely implausible plot devices which force Robb to go to the Twins for a wedding with his army.

[Frey Pie]

Which realm had a navy defending its coast? That's right the West, not the North.

Which realm had a history of taking the fight to the Iron Islands and getting revenge? That's right the West, not the North.

Which realm had a capital that had never been take? Once again it is the West.

Which realms army was closer to home? The West once again.

Balon took the easier option. While there is not as much to gain from the North, there is also less casualties in taking it. Pointless trying to take the North if Balon accumulates too many casualties and can not protect himself afterwards.

The North was the obvious choice.

Now those are better points

However:

Which place is one third of the whole continent? The north

Which capital is hundred of miles away from the sea and reinforcement? The north

Which army has two enemy armies between it and home? Tywins

Which region has just had one of its armies spanked? Tywins

Which region has incredibly harsh winters and men resistant to it? The north

Which region is hundreds of miles away from your hq? The north

The north may have been more vulnerable then usual but it was by no means an easy option as testified by the hundreds of men lost

In the end balon shouldn't have attacked either place without prior allies or a better plan

[Ser Eric]

Which realm had a navy defending its coast? That's right the West, not the North.

Which realm had a history of taking the fight to the Iron Islands and getting revenge? That's right the West, not the North.

Which realm had a capital that had never been take? Once again it is the West.

Which realms army was closer to home? The West once again.

Balon took the easier option. While there is not as much to gain from the North, there is also less casualties in taking it. Pointless trying to take the North if Balon accumulates too many casualties and can not protect himself afterwards.

The North was the obvious choice.

Absolutely pointless series of questions with zero relevance to the current situation in Westeros.

Balon gained precisely nothing from the North. Balon would have never taken the North either never mind hold it with winter coming. The Northmen would have overwhelmed them sooner rather than later. What then? What's the long term plan? All Robb had to do was sail beyond the neck and that would have been that for the IB.

Hell, even IF he had to attack the North he should have done it after sealing an alliance not fucking before it. That's just barking mad no matter which way you look at it.

Attacking the Westerlands in the current climate was a 1000x better option than what Balon eventually ended up doing.

[Ser Eric]

Balon have declared independence and raided up and down the west coast taking advantage of the civil war or he could have thrown his lot in with Renly and bargain for some land. Basically anything but what he ended up doing.

[Frey Pie]

Being completely honest in the situation balon was in he had far better options. In his current state he should have sat on his hands. However he had two options other then that

If he really wants independence- attack the west. Break Lannister power at home by taking Lannisport but leave CR under siege. However, before this he needs to talk to robb. He needs assurance that Robb will do one of two things- send his cavalry to Balon to help him raid and subdue the west, or have him put Tywin under siege and if he attempts to return home make him bleed for every step. A contingent of ironborn should stay with robb at all times to ensure loyalty. seal the alliance with some marriages and deals

Alternatively if he's more interested in land:

Wait and see what happens. Attacking the north here is going to be the best course of action but this is dependent on a deal with whoever wins the Iron throne and if Robb is defeated.If things go as they did in the book then Balon should attack the north only with a promise of land from Tywin

He did neither and knowing what he did at the time picked a very stupid strategy to go with. He picked a fight with a neutral party without assurance from any land power and simultaneously made himself and enemy of the throne. This is why he is called dumb, nothing to do with who like who

[Arrow of the Morning]

Which realm had a navy defending its coast? That's right the West, not the North.

Which realm had a history of taking the fight to the Iron Islands and getting revenge? That's right the West, not the North.

Which realm had a capital that had never been take? Once again it is the West.

Which realms army was closer to home? The West once again.

Balon took the easier option. While there is not as much to gain from the North, there is also less casualties in taking it. Pointless trying to take the North if Balon accumulates too many casualties and can not protect himself afterwards.

The North was the obvious choice.

I agree The North was more vulnerable. But what was Balon's objective? If he just wanted to plunder and gain lands it was a good choice, but, instead, he crowned himself again and became a enemy of Iron Throne too. If your plane is gain independence it was a really stupid plan.

[hodorisfaclessman]

- could be , bear in mind many went along with roose despite what he did due to the threat of force and his hostages too so it works both ways

-shes feels she can take part by negotiation after the ironborn have barely begun their invasion , whos to say what they could have taken going all in with a mixture of negotiation and force

-id say its more like a month or 2 and bear in mind he needed guides from jon to find them to even recruit them,

The ryswell and dustin numbers wont matter long as they are clearly in the crosshairs of any largescale assault esp old lady dustin and her wooden town and fort.

- If the ironborn can take many of the lightly garrisoned forts along the western coast and then ensure they are well garrisoned and provisioned then taking them back would be bloody , if a few hundred at deepwood can hold back 1000 ironborn for a month then imagine the casulties trying to remove the ironborn from places like flints finger, bear island , the ryswell holdfast etc when they are well garrisoned

the norths advantage in any reistance is numbers and throwing men at sieges agaisnt well manned forts would reduce that advantage quickly

-The northmen have the same disadvantages communicating , in the inital attack wave phase the ironborn have a huge advagtage of suprise, a set plan , local concentration of numbers ...from then on if balon is holed up in some holdfast in the north his communication will be no better or worse than his enemies