Balon Greyjoys master plan

[Bright Blue Eyes]

-50k?

if we're talking about balons planning as far as almost 99% of all lords in westeros are concerned once moat cailin is sealed nothing can come north, (hes wrong of course but few in westeros or even the north would know that) most of robbs force + the riverlands would be south of that....there nothing close to 50k left ,50k would be the norths total strength max .

-balon needs very little at home esp while the only naval threats to his islands are at war with each other

-thats if word got out , no one seemed to have heard of it til long after it fell

Once inside though if a lightly garrisoned deepwood can hold off 1000 men for a moon then 1000+ supplied + possibly supported if attacked by sea should be hard to remove if at all

at that point she has only about 200 men then at most, cut off from outside ironborn help and facing 3-4k enemies.

Not going into the 50k issue, that would only fill ten pages with detailed derailment. Even assuming 50k as the total strength, that would leave 30k in the North.

The second paragraph is bullshit. Each and everybody in Westeros knows that the Crannogmen move through the Neck all the time, and the Crannogmen are loyal to Winterfell.

Yes, Balon doesn't need much at home. But Seagard is still damn close to the Iron Islands and each soldier he has to retain home is unable to be used in the North.

Rodrik Cassel knew about the siege and was ready to march when he got the message about the Cleftjaw attacking Torrhen's Square. In time.

Castles have a maximum size as well as a minimum size. 1,000 (not supplied, by the way, because Deepwood Motte lacks a fortified harbor) are well beyond the limit of usable troops. Holdins one castle isn't going to help anyway. Especially if a damn good potential hostage is penned in it.

[Lord Lannister]

Balon Greyjoy's Plan

1) Declare Independence

2) Attack the North

3) ????

4) Profit.

[WSmith84]

-50k?

if we're talking about balons planning as far as almost 99% of all lords in westeros are concerned once moat cailin is sealed nothing can come north, (hes wrong of course but few in westeros or even the north would know that) most of robbs force + the riverlands would be south of that....there nothing close to 50k left ,50k would be the norths total strength max .

-balon needs very little at home esp while the only naval threats to his islands are at war with each other

-thats if word got out , no one seemed to have heard of it til long after it fell

Once inside though if a lightly garrisoned deepwood can hold off 1000 men for a moon then 1000+ supplied + possibly supported if attacked by sea should be hard to remove if at all

at that point she has only about 200 men then at most, cut off from outside ironborn help and facing 3-4k enemies.

How does Balon plan to prevent Robb returning North via Gulltown? Because there is no way Balon could have known that Lysa wouldn't support Robb and her brother, father, uncle and sister. Was he going to sail ships all the way around Westeros to blockade the Eastern shore of the North?

[Victor227]

The big problem is that when Balon died, all the strength of the Ironborn was forced to return to the Isles. The people left at Deepwood were Asha and her exiles (as opposed to the large well-supplied force she was originally given), and the 'garrison' at Moat Cailin, if you can even call it a garrison, as it was mostly composed of people so unimportant they didn't even a merit a seat on a boat home.

That's the extent of the Ironborn strength in the North that we -see-. But back in ACOK, they had thousands and thousands more troops on-hand.

Balon had the men to make a fight of it, at the very least. Even if the cause was doomed on a 'decades and centuries' level.

[marsyao]

How does Balon plan to prevent Robb returning North via Gulltown? Because there is no way Balon could have known that Lysa wouldn't support Robb and her brother, father, uncle and sister. Was he going to sail ships all the way around Westeros to blockade the Eastern shore of the North?

Because of Iron fleet, I would believe the all of the sea routes were closed to Robb

[WSmith84]

Because of Iron fleet, I would believe the all of the sea routes were closed to Robb

But the Iron Islands are on the other side of Westeros. Balon would have to sail his fleet around Westeros to block the Eastern coast (where Robb would return). That's a hell of a long way to sail, giving Robb plenty of time to move to Gulltown and move (at least some) of his army North.

[Lord Conover]

There are some major faults with this plan. For one, the very concept of gathering permanent lands which in this case were largely only good for farming and settling, contradicts the Greyjoy words "We Do Not Sow". If Balon, who claimed to keep the Old Way, sought to conquer the North, it's only long term use is as farming territory and a tax base. If he wanted to truly keep to the Old Way and raid, then he should have gone after Casterly Rock or Oldtown. Their isn't much for him in the North. From a military standpoint, it was not a bad plan. The timing was good as Robb had just left with all his men. He should have committed more men to the fight however.

So what was his plan? Surprise Surpise, he just wanted Ironborn independence. We know from both the show and the books that Balon sent a peace offering to Tywin Lannister. Tywin's response was that they didn't need to ally with Balon since he would continue to fight the Starks anyway and that he didn't want to give up half the kingdom. Right there is the motivation. From a gubernatorial standpoint, the Iron Islands are largely irrelevant. They have a very small population, are the smallest of the kingdoms, and if properly watched, don't constitute a major threat. The North is much more important for anyone claiming to hold the realm. Is it possible that Balon's plan was to take the North, thus greatly contributing to the likelihood of a Stark loss, which would leave the Lannisters victorious who would certainly want the North? Perhaps he thought he could trade the North to the Lannisters in exchange for a guarantee of Ironborn independence. It would be a good bargaining tool. Or perhaps he thought he could keep the North via Moat Cailyn and then go after the South along the Mander like Euron eventually did. In any case, he didn't count on his dying. Had he lived, he might have been after the creation of an Ironborn Empire all along the western shores of Westeros.

[hodorisfaclessman]

-Not going into the 50k issue, that would only fill ten pages with detailed derailment. Even assuming 50k as the total strength, that would leave 30k in the North.

-

The second paragraph is bullshit. Each and everybody in Westeros knows that the Crannogmen move through the Neck all the time, and the Crannogmen are loyal to Winterfell.

-Yes, Balon doesn't need much at home. But Seagard is still damn close to the Iron Islands and each soldier he has to retain home is unable to be used in the North.

-Rodrik Cassel knew about the siege and was ready to march when he got the message about the Cleftjaw attacking Torrhen's Square. In time.

-Castles have a maximum size as well as a minimum size. 1,000 (not supplied, by the way, because Deepwood Motte lacks a fortified harbor) are well beyond the limit of usable troops. Holdins one castle isn't going to help anyway. Especially if a damn good potential hostage is penned in it.

- assuming even if its 30-40k they are not the best and spread out over a vast area of little holdfasts etc , its hard to actualy gather all that into combat groups and most of it will be on the eastern coast far from where the ironborn will be.

meanwhile the ironborn having a fleet means they have all the initiative and can decide where and when to concentrate force , plus as the ironbron fall on lightly protected garrisons near the sea the number of remaining forces goes down.

-everyone knows the crannogmen are loyal to winterfell and they live in the giant swamplands yes

but as jason mallisters complaints note that its not exactly an ideal place to move a large force through with any kind of speed even with guides

if there are secret paths suitable then they are exactly that....secret

-still leaves a lot of men to attack with

-ok fair enough.

-Then they fill it with the maximum useable and supply and support the rest , it doesnt really need a fortified harbour as the northmen wont camp near enough to sea to stop supplies reaching there (for obvious reasons a northern camp close to the seaside when at war with seaborne raiders is a bad idea)

and if the northern force land any kind of large besiegeing force the ironborn can land a counter force behind it

[hodorisfaclessman]

-Not going into the 50k issue, that would only fill ten pages with detailed derailment. Even assuming 50k as the total strength, that would leave 30k in the North.

-

The second paragraph is bullshit. Each and everybody in Westeros knows that the Crannogmen move through the Neck all the time, and the Crannogmen are loyal to Winterfell.

-Yes, Balon doesn't need much at home. But Seagard is still damn close to the Iron Islands and each soldier he has to retain home is unable to be used in the North.

-Rodrik Cassel knew about the siege and was ready to march when he got the message about the Cleftjaw attacking Torrhen's Square. In time.

-Castles have a maximum size as well as a minimum size. 1,000 (not supplied, by the way, because Deepwood Motte lacks a fortified harbor) are well beyond the limit of usable troops. Holdins one castle isn't going to help anyway. Especially if a damn good potential hostage is penned in it.

- assuming even if its 30-40k they are not the best and spread out over a vast area of little holdfasts etc , its hard to actualy gather all that into combat groups and most of it will be on the eastern coast far from where the ironborn will be.

meanwhile the ironborn having a fleet means they have all the initiative and can decide where and when to concentrate force , plus as the ironbron fall on lightly protected garrisons near the sea the number of remaining forces goes down.

-everyone knows the crannogmen are loyal to winterfell and they live in the giant swamplands yes

but as jason mallisters complaints note that its not exactly an ideal place to move a large force through with any kind of speed even with guides

if there are secret paths suitable then they are exactly that....secret

-still leaves a lot of men to attack with

-ok fair enough.

-Then they fill it with the maximum useable and supply and support the rest , it doesnt really need a fortified harbour as the northmen wont camp near enough to sea to stop supplies reaching there (for obvious reasons a northern camp close to the seaside when at war with seaborne raiders is a bad idea)

and if the northern force land any kind of large besiegeing force the ironborn can land a counter force behind it

[Frey Pie]

they have about 15-25 k troops and as far as balon knows (he has no way of knowing that robb can slip though the marshes) thats about as many are left in the north, who are scattered and not exactly the cream either

True which means they'd be even numbers. The difference is they know the land, have the local support, have a huge population to keep refreshing, don't have a capital hundreds of miles away by sea and have an army to the south which can reinforce them if needed (Freys were Robb's alies when balon attacked)

[Frey Pie]

If you had actually read CoK you would know Balon was not motivated by spite for Ned.

But you just came here to fume and demonstrate the truth of my first comment, didn't you?

lol how's that chip on your shoulder doing?

[Frey Pie]

Because of Iron fleet, I would believe the all of the sea routes were closed to Robb

Am I feel like I don't need to go into details....but what you said is just plain impossible and wrong

[hodorisfaclessman]

How does Balon plan to prevent Robb returning North via Gulltown? Because there is no way Balon could have known that Lysa wouldn't support Robb and her brother, father, uncle and sister. Was he going to sail ships all the way around Westeros to blockade the Eastern shore of the North?

thats a long march for any army even in peactime as well as needing a lotta ships (or a few going back and forth)

also to reach gulltown through the vale means marching an army close to darry + harrenhall which tywin held from early in the WOT5K

[hodorisfaclessman]

How does Balon plan to prevent Robb returning North via Gulltown? Because there is no way Balon could have known that Lysa wouldn't support Robb and her brother, father, uncle and sister. Was he going to sail ships all the way around Westeros to blockade the Eastern shore of the North?

thats a long march for any army even in peactime as well as needing a lotta ships (or a few going back and forth)

also to reach gulltown through the vale means marching an army close to darry + harrenhall which tywin held from early in the WOT5K

[Frey Pie]

thats a long march for any army even in peactime as well as needing a lotta ships (or a few going back and forth)

also to reach gulltown through the vale means marching an army close to darry + harrenhall which tywin held from early in the WOT5K

Darry changed hands several times and seemingly was lightly held at all times. Tywin was holed up in Harrenhal for a good time but later it was taken and held by some 10k northmen

Balon could not plan for any of these things happening and they all did. What could be assumed was that the vale would join which would open up a new avenue of return, disregarding the fact that Robb could have gone through moat cailin and fought or gone secretly with the help of the mud men

[hodorisfaclessman]

True which means they'd be even numbers. The difference is they know the land, have the local support, have a huge population to keep refreshing, don't have a capital hundreds of miles away by sea and have an army to the south which can reinforce them if needed (Freys were Robb's alies when balon attacked)

knowing the land is subjective though the north is massive many of its eastern troops for example prob will never have been anywhere near the west that much and bear in mind raiding does allow you to know the land a bit ....shit balon has literaly sneaked into flints fingers very castles as a young teen.

The ironborn force is concentrated and its fleet allows it the initiative on top of speed of movement ..so they have strengths too

when balon attacked bear in mind robb also had enemies south too

[hodorisfaclessman]

Darry changed hands several times and seemingly was lightly held at all times. Tywin was holed up in Harrenhal for a good time but later it was taken and held by some 10k northmen

Balon could not plan for any of these things happening and they all did. What could be assumed was that the vale would join which would open up a new avenue of return, disregarding the fact that Robb could have gone through moat cailin and fought or gone secretly with the help of the mud men

but it was in tywins when balon attacked

if robb marched for the vale hed be taking his full force close to tywins full remaining forces 25-30k men

Balon could not have planned for that but he did attack when the vale was seemingly sitting out the war , a forces path to gulltown seemingly blocked by tywin lannister and any army that arrived there would have been slow to ship back and past the dangerous waters around the 3 sisters to white harbour.

[Frey Pie]

knowing the land is subjective though the north is massive many of its eastern troops for example prob will never have been anywhere near the west that much and bear in mind raiding does allow you to know the land....shit balon has literaly sneaked into flints fingers very castle as a young teen.

The ironborn force is concentrated and its fleet allows it the initiative on top of speed of movement ..so they have strengths too

when balon attacked bear in mind robb also had enemies south too

Haha yes it is subjective but every Northman will know the north better then any islander. The locals will willingly help their men with knowledge and supplies while they will deny the islanders when possible.

there greatest strength is Victarion and his leadership. But to ask for reinforcments or get concrete commands from hq will take weeks. I don't see any scenario in which the ironborn can take the north and hold it for a significant amount of time. As it was the only reason they were semi successful was an unforeseen number of circumstances

Northern civil war

Ser Rodriks dismal ability

Theons great initiative

Vale neutrality

Betrayal of the Freys and Boltons

And that's not even going into the shadow baby and all that which ultimately helped out Balon, Tywin's eventual assassination etc

[Frey Pie]

but it was in tywins when balon attacked

if robb marched for the vale hed be taking his full force close to tywins full remaining forces 25-30k men

Balon could not have planned for that but he did attack when the vale was seemingly sitting out the war , a forces path to gulltown seemingly blocked by tywin lannister and any army that arrived there would have been slow to ship back and past the dangerous waters around the 3 sisters to white harbour.

Tywin had 20 K to begin with and has fought a series of battles and skirmishes. He's at around 18 K now, nowhere near your estimation

[hodorisfaclessman]

Tywin had 20 K to begin with and has fought a series of battles and skirmishes. He's at around 18 K now, nowhere near your estimation

its still enough to block passage , robb can force his way though possibly but its not gonna be pretty.