Balon Greyjoys master plan

[Lord Freypie]

"The Starks were ready to let his Kingdom to exist?" He doesn't need there approval. They offered him nothing.

They offered their alliance, and more importantly supported the concept of the Seven Kingdoms being split again.

As long the Kingdom of the North&Riverlands would have existed, breaking the Iron Islands Realm wouldn't have been the priority of KL kings wanting to re-unite the whole realm. And would it have managed to survive, other countries like Dorne or the Vale may also have been tempted by independance, weakening the KL power even more.

[Frey Pie]

If Ramsay still had attacked, Asha had reinforced Winterfell and they had not let Ramsay in, the latter probably wouldn't have been able to take it. I would still have abandoned the place though, and show up at the kingsmoot with Dagmer and Loren as supporters and the Stark boys as hostages.

Yes if all those three things happened and Ramsay got no more additional support but that would never have happened

Agreed your plan is far more clever

[Ser Eric]

Balon was dumb. I can't believe people are arguing otherwise.

Robb/Theon's initial plan was a reasonably solid plan with very little drawback. They need not even have gone all the way with it and attacked Casterley Rock. All they had to was they had already done and attack Lannisport and burn them. The difference this time being that there would be no unified kingdom to come back at them and even the Lannister forced were stretched. This would have been far more fruitful than taking the north and basically with them having independence they have open permission to rain whoever they wanted along the coast. Like the old days.

However, I can understand that his hatred of the Starks got in the way of him backing Robb, which to an extent is fair enough. He has a misplaced sense of revenge against the Starks and wants to attack the North. However, the idea of the Iron Born keeping the North in the long term was plain foolishness especially with winter coming. If Balon still wanted to attack the North then this should have been the time where he should have allied with their Renly or Tywin in return for doing their dirty work. But being the brain dead moron that he was, he goes on and attacks the Starks AND then asks for an alliance with Tywin which really is the epitome of stupidity.

[John Doe]

Rodrik Harlaw said what needed to be done in a few sentences:

"This dream of kingship is a madness in our blood. I told your father so the first time he rose, and it is more true now than it was then. It’s land we need, not crowns. With Stannis Baratheon and Tywin Lannister contending for the Iron Throne, we have a rare chance to improve our lot. Let us take one side or the other, help them to victory with our fleets, and claim the lands we need from a grateful king."

Well, the North would have supplied Balon with the "land they need". Allying themselves with the Starks would have given the Greyjoys Fair Isle at best.

[John Doe]

Yes if all those three things happened and Ramsay got no more additional support but that would never have happened

Yeah, once reinforcements arrive it would be difficult to keep Winterfell and I wouldn't want to be the one to try it. If they managed to supply the castle well by pulling a Blackfish and last until winter they would have good chances though. Not great chances, but good, since an enemy would likely starve or freeze before the castle walls.

[Frey Pie]

Yeah, once reinforcements arrive it would be difficult to keep Winterfell and I wouldn't want to be the one to try it. If they managed to supply the castle well by pulling a Blackfish and last until winter they would have good chances though. Not great chances, but good, since an enemy would likely starve or freeze before the castle walls.

This is against men who know WF well though. Theon knows the castle but his men don't and there seems to be a lot of secrets to the place. And the Northerners thrive in winter. I agree though it is possible, just highly unlikely imho

[Chaircat Meow]

Balon was dumb. I can't believe people are arguing otherwise.

Robb/Theon's initial plan was a reasonably solid plan with very little drawback. They need not even have gone all the way with it and attacked Casterley Rock. All they had to was they had already done and attack Lannisport and burn them. The difference this time being that there would be no unified kingdom to come back at them and even the Lannister forced were stretched. This would have been far more fruitful than taking the north and basically with them having independence they have open permission to rain whoever they wanted along the coast. Like the old days.

However, I can understand that his hatred of the Starks got in the way of him backing Robb, which to an extent is fair enough. He has a misplaced sense of revenge against the Starks and wants to attack the North. However, the idea of the Iron Born keeping the North in the long term was plain foolishness especially with winter coming. If Balon still wanted to attack the North then this should have been the time where he should have allied with their Renly or Tywin in return for doing their dirty work. But being the brain dead moron that he was, he goes on and attacks the Starks AND then asks for an alliance with Tywin which really is the epitome of stupidity.

Dude, you are talking absolute, utter, abject, shit.

Read. the. book. before you start whinging about Balon being dumb.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Dude, you are talking absolute, utter, abject, shit.

Read. the. book. before you start whinging about Balon being dumb.

"Balon was mad (...)". Estimation of his brother-in-law.

"In contrast to her father, Asha had never deluded herself." Same for his daughter.

Both referring to his plans. Granted, it's not literally "dumb", but pretty much the same meaning.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

"Balon was mad (...)". Estimation of his brother-in-law.

"In contrast to her father, Asha had never deluded herself." Same for his daughter.

Both referring to his plans. Granted, it's not literally "dumb", but pretty much the same meaning.

Well if we are going to be quoting Asha.

"If my father still lived, Moat Cailin would never have fallen. Balon Greyjoy had known that the Moat was the key to holding the north. Euron knew that as well; he simply did not care. No more than he cared what happened to Deepwood Motte or Torrhen's Square. "Euron has no interest in Balon's conquests."

[Barty]

Well if we are going to be quoting Asha.

"If my father still lived, Moat Cailin would never have fallen. Balon Greyjoy had known that the Moat was the key to holding the north. Euron knew that as well; he simply did not care. No more than he cared what happened to Deepwood Motte or Torrhen's Square. "Euron has no interest in Balon's conquests."

Exactly. Balon's entire plan revolved around MC never falling. So much so that he sent the entire Iron Fleet there. And this is exactly why his plan was doomed. 2 reasons

1. He did not consider the Crannogmen a threat - these guys were bleeding the IB pretty badly while they were at MC. No way could Balon continue to hold MC for a long period of time.

2. MC became useless the moment we found out that there are other roads to the North which only the Crannogmen know of. Had Robb wanted he could have bypassed MC entirely.

[Frey Pie]

Dude, you are talking absolute, utter, abject, shit.

Read. the. book. before you start whinging about Balon being dumb.

He/she is really not, and I think if all you have to say is insults you probably shouldn't bother

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Exactly. Balon's entire plan revolved around MC never falling. So much so that he sent the entire Iron Fleet there. And this is exactly why his plan was doomed. 2 reasons

1. He did not consider the Crannogmen a threat - these guys were bleeding the IB pretty badly while they were at MC. No way could Balon continue to hold MC for a long period of time.

2. MC became useless the moment we found out that there are other roads to the North which only the Crannogmen know of. Had Robb wanted he could have bypassed MC entirely.

1. I may be wrong, but it seems some on here exaggerate how effective the Iron Born were. They were a dangerous nuisance, but not a real to the Victarion holding Moat Cailin.

Even when Victarion left the majority of his men the Crannogemen were no more of a danger to the Ironborn than the lack of food, no clean water and themselves.

2. We, as well as Robb, don't know how effective those roads would have been. He only really gets excited about those once he hears Balon is dead and Victarion has left. And that plan still involved the added men of the Freys and attacking Moat Cailin from the South.

Balon's plan was not doomed. Holding Moat Cailin until the Northern army was either destroyed by the South, or attacking Moat Cailin from the South was a clever ploy. Once Robb and the Northern army was defeated the rest of the North would be easier to take and more willing to compromise.

Now the reason why people on here think Balon's plan was doomed is that they are convinced that Robb would never have been beaten by conventional means and thus Victarion and the bulk of the Ironborn army would need to hold MC indefinitely. Balon, on the other hand, thought it was only a matter of time before the Young Wolf was defeated, which in fairness is the prevalent in-universe opinion.

[John Doe]

This is against men who know WF well though. Theon knows the castle but his men don't and there seems to be a lot of secrets to the place. And the Northerners thrive in winter. I agree though it is possible, just highly unlikely imho

I'm not so sure about them knowing Winterfell well. They may be Northeners, but for example Manderly or Bolton bannermen didn't serve at Winterfell and thus would probably know it no better than the Winterfell men would know the Dreadfort.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

1. I may be wrong, but it seems some on here exaggerate how effective the Iron Born were. They were a dangerous nuisance, but not a real to the Victarion holding Moat Cailin.

...while Meera and Jojen were Theon's hostages and Howland Reed didn't press the issue.

Even when Victarion left the majority of his men the Crannogemen were no more of a danger to the Ironborn than the lack of food, no clean water and themselves.

...all caused by the Crannogmen using means of guerilla warfare. 90+ % losses for the Ironborn, by the way.

2. We, as well as Robb, don't know how effective those roads would have been. He only really gets excited about those once he hears Balon is dead and Victarion has left. And that plan still involved the added men of the Freys and attacking Moat Cailin from the South.

...having to contend with a civil war between the two most powerful Houses in the North and the lack of leadership.

[Chaircat Meow]

He/she is really not, and I think if all you have to say is insults you probably shouldn't bother

Meh.

I've argued about the ironborn/Balon/plan issue for about 2 and 1/2 years. I've made loads of posts on the subject. One thing I encounter repeatedly is the claim Balon acted out of spite. A close reading of the text simply does not bare this out. Ser Eric is clearly a show watcher given the way he described the Robb/Theon plan, hence why I told him to read the book.

[Barty]

1. I may be wrong, but it seems some on here exaggerate how effective the Iron Born were. They were a dangerous nuisance, but not a real to the Victarion holding Moat Cailin.

Even when Victarion left the majority of his men the Crannogemen were no more of a danger to the Ironborn than the lack of food, no clean water and themselves.

2. We, as well as Robb, don't know how effective those roads would have been. He only really gets excited about those once he hears Balon is dead and Victarion has left. And that plan still involved the added men of the Freys and attacking Moat Cailin from the South.

Balon's plan was not doomed. Holding Moat Cailin until the Northern army was either destroyed by the South, or attacking Moat Cailin from the South was a clever ploy. Once Robb and the Northern army was defeated the rest of the North would be easier to take and more willing to compromise.

Now the reason why people on here think Balon's plan was doomed is that they are convinced that Robb would never have been beaten by conventional means and thus Victarion and the bulk of the Ironborn army would need to hold MC indefinitely. Balon, on the other hand, thought it was only a matter of time before the Young Wolf was defeated, which in fairness is the prevalent in-universe opinion.

1. Depends what you call a dangerous nuisance. Victarion certainly seems to have a lot of hatred for the Crannogmen. And the reason why the IB at MC didnt have any food or clean drinking water was that whenever they left the towers to get their supplies they were shot with poisoned arrows. They were probably not a threat in terms of they being capable of taking MC from the IB in open combat - but they were a threat in terms of bleeding the IB slowly day by day. Look at Vietnam, or the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan - Guerilla warfare is very dangerous, no matter how powerful the invading army.

2. There is no proof these tracks are not effective. Howland seems to be a competent fellow and so does Robb. If he thinks he can transport 70% of his army North via the tracks then there is no reason to doubt their effectiveness. Remember we are talking about a guy who can transport 6000 heavy cavalry into enemy territory with no scouts (who know the area) using just a single goat track. The reason his plan involved the Freys and the attack from the South is because Robb thought he would be facing the entirety of the Iron Fleet (This is supported by direct quotes from the books). The Bulk of their armies. He thought he would be facing close to 10k men. It would be stupid to leave an army as large as that behind him.

[WSmith84]

1. I may be wrong, but it seems some on here exaggerate how effective the Iron Born were. They were a dangerous nuisance, but not a real to the Victarion holding Moat Cailin.

Even when Victarion left the majority of his men the Crannogemen were no more of a danger to the Ironborn than the lack of food, no clean water and themselves.

2. We, as well as Robb, don't know how effective those roads would have been. He only really gets excited about those once he hears Balon is dead and Victarion has left. And that plan still involved the added men of the Freys and attacking Moat Cailin from the South.

Balon's plan was not doomed. Holding Moat Cailin until the Northern army was either destroyed by the South, or attacking Moat Cailin from the South was a clever ploy. Once Robb and the Northern army was defeated the rest of the North would be easier to take and more willing to compromise.

Now the reason why people on here think Balon's plan was doomed is that they are convinced that Robb would never have been beaten by conventional means and thus Victarion and the bulk of the Ironborn army would need to hold MC indefinitely. Balon, on the other hand, thought it was only a matter of time before the Young Wolf was defeated, which in fairness is the prevalent in-universe opinion.

Again, what was Balon's plan to prevent Robb coming North via Gulltown? Noone without some inside knowledge would have bet on Lysa remaining neutral throughout the war. If she had allowed Robb free passage, how would Balon prevent it?

[Chaircat Meow]

The real problem is that GrrM made the Starks a strong, popular family, ruling a very large and defensible subcontinent to the north of the rest of westeros, while requiring their capital to fall before their army in the south was defeated. And that's hard to pull off in a realistic fashion. WF being taken by an alliance of bannerman hostile to the Starks after Robb's defeat makes sense, but GrrM wanted Robb and Cat to make their fatal decisions after WF fell. And that apparently necessitated the ironborn invasion and Theon's act of 'daring-do.'

I don't think it is all as terrible as some people seem to think, but it is one of the weakest parts of the series. This leads some to conclude Balon is supposed to be stupid in turning down Robb's offer, and acting out of revenge, but there's no evidence in the book to back this up, or to suggest it's a conclusion we are meant to draw. He could well be an idiot to think the ironborn have any chance of going back to the old ways, sure, but the ironborn are just not one of GrrM's best creations. Nevertheless, in woiaf we do find their culture is suffused with the desire to have a raiding/reaving lifestyle, so Balon isn't a random fool, but a product of a very old culture everyone in world should know about.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

1. Depends what you call a dangerous nuisance. Victarion certainly seems to have a lot of hatred for the Crannogmen. is very dangerous, no matter how powerful the invading army.

At the office somehow bees always get in. A dangerous nuisance, but not a threatening one.

At no point does Victarion consider the Crannogmen a viable threat to retake Moat Cailin.

2. There is no proof these tracks are not effective. Howland seems to be a competent fellow and so does Robb.

There is no proof that they are effective either. Robb is very desperate at this point. His first choice was to march to Gulltown and sail North

"The knights of the Vale could make all the difference in this war," said Robb, "but if she will not fight, so be it. I've asked only that she open the Bloody Gate for us, and provide ships at Gulltown to take us north. The high road would be hard, but not so hard as fighting our way up the Neck. If I could land at White Harbor I could flank Moat Cailin and drive the ironmen from the north in half a year."

That option was denied him. Once he heard that there was a Kingsmoot and the Victarion and his leaders would be gone he came up with the new plan, hoping to catch the Ironborn off guard.

If he thinks he can transport 70% of his army North via the tracks then there is no reason to doubt their effectiveness.

Not 70% but 33%.

"There are ways through the Neck that are not on any map, Uncle. Ways known only to the crannogmen - narrow trails between the bogs, and wet roads through the reeds that only boats can follow." He turned to his two messengers. "Tell Howland Reed that he is to send guides to me, two days after I have started up the causeway. To the center battle, where my own standard flies. Three hosts will leave the Twins, but only two will reach Moat Cailin. Mine own battle will melt away into the Neck, to reemerge on the Fever. If we move swiftly once my uncle's wed, we can all be in position by year's end. We will fall upon the Moat from three sides on the first day of the new century, as the ironmen are waking with hammers beating at their heads from the mead they'll quaff the night before."

"I like this plan," said the Greatjon. "I like it well."

Galbart Glover rubbed his mouth. "There are risks. If the crannogmen should fail you . . . "

"We will be no worse than before. But they will not fail. My father knew the worth of Howland Reed." Robb rolled up the map, and only then looked at Catelyn. "Mother."

Robb had been a pretty adventurous commander but he is pretty desperate this point. When Cat warns about the Freys he ignores her, I think he was prepared to believe anything at this point as doubting would mean accepting the position he was in.

What I like about that exchange is Galbert questions it while the cheerleader Greatjon loves it.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

At the office somehow bees always get in. A dangerous nuisance, but not a threatening one.

I sincerely doubt that your bees reduce a garrison of 500-1,000 to sixty-something in two months.