Balon Greyjoys master plan

[hodorisfaclessman]

Your vision is a bit skewed here though. Did Balon realise that there would be a civil war when he attacked? That there were 3 powerful houses going at it over some land? Or that Ser Rodrik would be such an inept leader? Not to mention the fact that he never planned for Winterfell. Had these not occurred then the ironborn would already be thrown back everywhere but Moat Cailin. Rodrik would also have had a far larger host

And how is Stannis and his 1500 men more likely to win back the north then Roose and his 7000?

I do think his plan was ok up to a certain point but it was always going to fail. The north is too big, too far away from home and too cold to hold

theres plenty on the west coast they could realisticaly hold ,even a fraction of the north would be a huge increase in land and timber for them.....shit bear island alone is the size of pyk and forrested

[Frey Pie]

theres plenty on the west coast they could realisticaly hold ,even a fraction of the north would be a huge increase in land and timber for them.....shit bear island alone is the size of pyk and forrested

Bear island they might realistically hold if they were sufficiently political or tyrannical in their rule. Any mainland part of the North, imho cannot be held by such a small force with a base so far south

[Bright Blue Eyes]

theres plenty on the west coast they could realisticaly hold ,even a fraction of the north would be a huge increase in land and timber for them.....shit bear island alone is the size of pyk and forrested

But he didn't attack Bear Island. Which indeed, he may have been able to hold with his seapower.

No, he attacked Deepwood Motte. And success was entirely due to Theon attacking Winterfell, otherwise Cassel would hace scraped Asha of it's palisades without breaking a sweat.

Not a single part of the coast could actually be held by the Ironborn, not even in the medium.

[oursisthefury69]

People are complaining about Balon because he attacked the Starks. In itself that makes him stupid in the eyes of about 60% of posters on the board.

What a nonsense comment, as if people being likely to sympathize with the Starks changes anything about the actual context of this. Balon attacking/seeking the North in general was borne out of sheer spite for Ned Stark in hindsight, yet your defending his terrible strategy and lack of sense, and backing it by saying the only reason people could or would ever possibly regard him as stupid is because they're somehow personally offended by his attacking the Starks. Well, speaking as somebody who doesnt even understand how (as you implied) people can be influenced based off like personal connection to fictional characters, he's stupid because hes stupid. "People are complaining" lmao what does that even mean

[WSmith84]

Let's look at the time when Balon launched his invasion. Renly looked to be the clear winner of the war and there was no reason to believe that he would accept a divided kingdom. So attacking the North would only net Balon anything in the short term, because once Renly has beaten the Lannisters he would presumably turn his attention to the North, Riverlands and Iron Islands. Invading the North means that, after the Lannisters are beaten, Robb has to return home to oust the Ironborn. This may well have caused Robb to bend the knee to Renly, in exchange for aid and ships: Robb would find it difficult to fight a war on two fronts, especially against Renly (with whom he has no personal grudge). What was Balon's plan to deal with Renly (who could have both the Redwyne and Royal fleet at his disposal) or a Renly/Robb alliance?

There's also the fact that Balon could not have predicted with any certainty that Lysa would stay out of the war. Her nephew, sister, brother, father, uncle were all fighting; for a family whose words are 'Family, Duty, Honour' it would seem most likely that Lysa would aid the North and Riverlands. So what was Balon's plan to prevent Robb from returning North via Gulltown? Was Balon going to sail ships all the way around Westeros to block the passage?

Finally, Balon doesn't declare for any King; instead he declares the Iron Islands independent. If he had declared for Joffrey, attacking the North would make some sense. If he declared for Stannis, perhaps it would make sense, though attacking the Westerlands would clearly be the better option. If he declared for Renly, again attacking the Westerlands would be the better option. But he declares for nobody. So why on Earth would you attack the only party interested in independence and the only party offering you an alliance, when you know that all other parties would not accept the secession of the Iron Islands?

[Mithras]

Balon was an idiot.

[oursisthefury69]

Let's look at the time when Balon launched his invasion. Renly looked to be the clear winner of the war and there was no reason to believe that he would accept a divided kingdom. So attacking the North would only net Balon anything in the short term, because once Renly has beaten the Lannisters he would presumably turn his attention to the North, Riverlands and Iron Islands. Invading the North means that, after the Lannisters are beaten, Robb has to return home to oust the Ironborn. This may well have caused Robb to bend the knee to Renly, in exchange for aid and ships: Robb would find it difficult to fight a war on two fronts, especially against Renly (with whom he has no personal grudge). What was Balon's plan to deal with Renly (who could have both the Redwyne and Royal fleet at his disposal) or a Renly/Robb alliance?

There's also the fact that Balon could not have predicted with any certainty that Lysa would stay out of the war. Her nephew, sister, brother, father, uncle were all fighting; for a family whose words are 'Family, Duty, Honour' it would seem most likely that Lysa would aid the North and Riverlands. So what was Balon's plan to prevent Robb from returning North via Gulltown? Was Balon going to sail ships all the way around Westeros to block the passage?

Finally, Balon doesn't declare for any King; instead he declares the Iron Islands independent. If he had declared for Joffrey, attacking the North would make some sense. If he declared for Stannis, perhaps it would make sense, though attacking the Westerlands would clearly be the better option. If he declared for Renly, again attacking the Westerlands would be the better option. But he declares for nobody. So why on Earth would you attack the only party interested in independence and the only party offering you an alliance, when you know that all other parties would not accept the secession of the Iron Islands?

Ok well let me stop you by your first sentence as you clearly dont have a clue if your perception in the shoes of other characters in the story was that Renly was looking to be the clear winner of the war at any point, he never even made it out of the freaking Stormlands

[Ser Pearce]

Ok well let me stop you by your first sentence as you clearly dont have a clue if your perception in the shoes of other characters in the story was that Renly was looking to be the clear winner of the war at any point, he never even made it out of the freaking Stormlands

Renly had the entire strength of the Reach and the Stormlands, minus the Arbor, behind him. He had the largest army being commanded by the likes of Randyll Tarly and Mathis Rowan. If that doesn't seem to a be a clear winner then I don't know what is

[Guess who's back]

Ok well let me stop you by your first sentence as you clearly dont have a clue if your perception in the shoes of other characters in the story was that Renly was looking to be the clear winner of the war at any point, he never even made it out of the freaking Stormlands

Renly had it in the bag. He would have taken Kings Landing easily by land not ships so wild fire wouldn't even be half as effective. After taking KG, Tywin would be surrounded by Renly and Robb. Robb then aligns with Renly. War is over.

Unless some wildcards like Varys or LF assassinate him in KG. But the army would not disband after that. Tyrells would just take everything over.

[Chaircat Meow]

What a nonsense comment, as if people being likely to sympathize with the Starks changes anything about the actual context of this. Balon attacking/seeking the North in general was borne out of sheer spite for Ned Stark in hindsight, yet your defending his terrible strategy and lack of sense, and backing it by saying the only reason people could or would ever possibly regard him as stupid is because they're somehow personally offended by his attacking the Starks. Well, speaking as somebody who doesnt even understand how (as you implied) people can be influenced based off like personal connection to fictional characters, he's stupid because hes stupid. "People are complaining" lmao what does that even mean

If you had actually read CoK you would know Balon was not motivated by spite for Ned.

But you just came here to fume and demonstrate the truth of my first comment, didn't you?

[WSmith84]

Ok well let me stop you by your first sentence as you clearly dont have a clue if your perception in the shoes of other characters in the story was that Renly was looking to be the clear winner of the war at any point, he never even made it out of the freaking Stormlands

Renly had the largest army going. He had the supplies, manpower and tactical leaders necessary. He was marching towards KL slowly, letting the Lannisters, Starks and Tullys weaken eachother whilst starving KL of food. The Reach alone has a larger army than the Starks or Lannisters, not to mention that all the fighting was taking place in the Riverlands and Westerlands, so the Stormlands and Reach went untouched.

[Ser Eric]

If you had actually read CoK you would know Balon was not motivated by spite for Ned.

But you just came here to fume and demonstrate the truth of my first comment, didn't you?

No? lol

[Balerion the kitten]

"Your prize will be the doom of you. Krakens rise from the sea, Theon, or did you forget that during your years among the wolves? Our strength is in our longships. My wooden pisspot sits close enough to the sea for supplies and fresh men to reach me whenever they are needful. But Winterfell is hundreds of leagues inland, ringed by woods, hills, and hostile holdfasts and castles. And every man in a thousand leagues is your enemy now, make no mistake. You made certain of that when you mounted those heads on your gatehouse." Asha shook her head.

Asha said it better than I ever could. Ironborn can't take the north, because the ironborn are dependent on their ships, something that's rendered useless in the north.

Plus Balon tried to go against the seven kingdoms before, and that ended in a disaster. Same as the idea itself.

[ThePrunesThatWasPromised]

Exactly, they have no fleet, which makes the alliance with the North completely one-sided as the North cannot come to the rescue of its ally should the Iron Throne sail for the Isles with either the Royal or Redwyne fleet.

Balon's mistake does not lie in attacking the North, it lies in declaring independence, insuring th eIron Throne is antagonized.

OTOH, the war presents as good an opportunity as Balon could ever expect to see to achieve independence.

Far better conditions than the first rebellion for that end.

And that was his goal. Balon is OG Ironborn.

[falcotron]

Asha said it better than I ever could. Ironborn can't take the north, because the ironborn relay on ships, something that's rendered useless in the north.

If Theon knew his Ironborn history (which, of course, he doesn't, which is part of the point both Asha and GRRM were making...), there's an easy reply to this.

What Asha is saying is the same thing the grumblers said to Harras Hoare and his next 2 generations. But Harwyn Hardhand didn't listen. "His palace was a tent, his throne a saddle." He spent more time conquering Riverlanders on horseback than raiding them on the rivers, and maybe as much time turning nobles against their rivals and lieges as he did conquering them, and it worked.

[hodorisfaclessman]

Bear island they might realistically hold if they were sufficiently political or tyrannical in their rule. Any mainland part of the North, imho cannot be held by such a small force with a base so far south

they have about 15-25 k troops and as far as balon knows (he has no way of knowing that robb can slip though the marshes) thats about as many are left in the north, who are scattered and not exactly the cream either

[hodorisfaclessman]

But he didn't attack Bear Island. Which indeed, he may have been able to hold with his seapower.

No, he attacked Deepwood Motte. And success was entirely due to Theon attacking Winterfell, otherwise Cassel would hace scraped Asha of it's palisades without breaking a sweat.

Not a single part of the coast could actually be held by the Ironborn, not even in the medium.

we have no idea what hed planned next, he died

would he? she had 1000 men in a fortified position supplied easily by sea and any attempts to besiege would be a nightmare given the ironborn can land anywhere

[Mithras]

The ironborn prevailed only in Riverlands in the recent history. That is because the River Lords are divided, quarrelsome, not powerful enough, and a single Great House does not exist as in the other kingdoms. Most importantly, the Hoares were cunning, ruthless and powerful. Plus, the geogprahy greatly favored the ironborn and their longships.

Balon and the North is the opposite to this case. There is no way the ironborn could have kept a lasting foothold in the North.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

they have about 15-25 k troops and as far as balon knows (he has no way of knowing that robb can slip though the marshes) thats about as many are left in the north, who are scattered and not exactly the cream either

More like 50,000 left in the North. And all the advantages of being the homefront.

As well as a combined force of ~70,000 in the Riverlands.

And Balon having nobody at home.

we have no idea what hed planned next, he died

would he? she had 1000 men in a fortified position supplied easily by sea and any attempts to besiege would be a nightmare given the ironborn can land anywhere

Of course he would. Asha required a full month to take Deepwood Motte, that the Cleftjaw simultaneously sieged Torrhen's Square and later the march on Winterfell is the only reason Rodrik Cassel didn't get there in time.

Furthermore, in Dance we witness how fast Asha has to abandon Deepwood Motte against a way smaller force.

[hodorisfaclessman]

-More like 50,000 left in the North. And all the advantages of being the homefront.

As well as a combined force of ~70,000 in the Riverlands.

-And Balon having nobody at home.

-Of course he would. Asha required a full month to take Deepwood Motte, that the Cleftjaw simultaneously sieged Torrhen's Square and later the march on Winterfell is the only reason Rodrik Cassel didn't get there in time.

-Furthermore, in Dance we witness how fast Asha has to abandon Deepwood Motte against a way smaller force.

-50k?

if we're talking about balons planning as far as almost 99% of all lords in westeros are concerned once moat cailin is sealed nothing can come north, (hes wrong of course but few in westeros or even the north would know that) most of robbs force + the riverlands would be south of that....there nothing close to 50k left ,50k would be the norths total strength max .

-balon needs very little at home esp while the only naval threats to his islands are at war with each other

-thats if word got out , no one seemed to have heard of it til long after it fell

Once inside though if a lightly garrisoned deepwood can hold off 1000 men for a moon then 1000+ supplied + possibly supported if attacked by sea should be hard to remove if at all

at that point she has only about 200 men then at most, cut off from outside ironborn help and facing 3-4k enemies.