Balon Greyjoys master plan

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Again, what was Balon's plan to prevent Robb coming North via Gulltown? Noone without some inside knowledge would have bet on Lysa remaining neutral throughout the war. If she had allowed Robb free passage, how would Balon prevent it?

He bet on Tywin.

Balon didn't seem to have much faith in the 15 year old Robb and I'm guessing even less in Lysa Tully.

I don't think he ever considered that either Tywin would lose or that Robb would win. He's been Tywins neighbour for his entire life and he has probably seen Tywin be on the winning side once too many times to back the new challengers on the block.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I sincerely doubt that your bees reduce a garrison of 500-1,000 to sixty-something in two months.

Nor did the Crannogmen.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Nor did the Crannogmen.

So, five ship crews (500-1000 men) left behind by Victarion weren't sixty-something men huddling inside the towers when Theon came for a visit two months later?

[John Doe]

Not 70% but 33%.

"There are ways through the Neck that are not on any map, Uncle. Ways known only to the crannogmen - narrow trails between the bogs, and wet roads through the reeds that only boats can follow." He turned to his two messengers. "Tell Howland Reed that he is to send guides to me, two days after I have started up the causeway. To the center battle, where my own standard flies. Three hosts will leave the Twins, but only two will reach Moat Cailin. Mine own battle will melt away into the Neck, to reemerge on the Fever. If we move swiftly once my uncle's wed, we can all be in position by year's end. We will fall upon the Moat from three sides on the first day of the new century, as the ironmen are waking with hammers beating at their heads from the mead they'll quaff the night before."

"I like this plan," said the Greatjon. "I like it well."

Galbart Glover rubbed his mouth. "There are risks. If the crannogmen should fail you . . . "

"We will be no worse than before. But they will not fail. My father knew the worth of Howland Reed." Robb rolled up the map, and only then looked at Catelyn. "Mother."

Robb had been a pretty adventurous commander but he is pretty desperate this point. When Cat warns about the Freys he ignores her, I think he was prepared to believe anything at this point as doubting would mean accepting the position he was in.

What I like about that exchange is Galbert questions it while the cheerleader Greatjon loves it.

Interesting about that quote is also that he expects not much help from the Crannogmen other than the guides, which implies to me that the notion of Reed having thousands of warriors hiding in the swamps is pretty much false.

[Municipal Engines]

So, five ship crews (500-1000 men) left behind by Victarion weren't sixty-something men huddling inside the towers when Theon came for a visit two months later?

Victarion left behind nine-tenths of the ships of the Iron Fleet at Moat Cailin, but it's never been said how many men the Iron Fleet has.

Speaking of the Iron Fleet, I have asked how many many are in it before, but I don't think I've ever seen someone answer it, or at least answer it well.

[Municipal Engines]

Interesting about that quote is also that he expects not much help from the Crannogmen other than the guides, which implies to me that the notion of Reed having thousands of warriors hiding in the swamps is pretty much false.

When fighting a guerilla war, you don't need thousands of warriors. He's been harrying the Ironborn in Moat Cailin from the shadows, and that would only take a few hundred.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

So, five ship crews (500-1000 men) left behind by Victarion weren't sixty-something men huddling inside the towers when Theon came for a visit two months later?

We have no idea how many men were left at Moat Cailin and how many men were left on the Fever River guarding the ships.

Ramsay comes across 67 men who are complaining of the water being poisonous, no food supplies coming in, themselves killing each as well as the Crannogmen.

So while there would have been a bigger garrison, though I seriously doubt it was anywhere near a 1,000, it was not just the Crannogmen killing them but many factors most important of which was that their country men had given up on Moat Cailin for the Reach.

[John Doe]

When fighting a guerilla war, you don't need thousands of warriors. He's been harrying the Ironborn in Moat Cailin from the shadows, and that would only take a few hundred.

Robb planned to take the Moat by force, yet he didn't count any crannogmen in for the attack, probably there aren't many of them. Guerilla war is all they can do, at least this is implied to me.

[Frey Pie]

I'm not so sure about them knowing Winterfell well. They may be Northeners, but for example Manderly or Bolton bannermen didn't serve at Winterfell and thus would probably know it no better than the Winterfell men would know the Dreadfort.

Agreed apart from the WF contingent in the army such as Rodrik

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

He bet on Tywin.

Balon didn't seem to have much faith in the 15 year old Robb and I'm guessing even less in Lysa Tully.

I don't think he ever considered that either Tywin would lose or that Robb would win. He's been Tywins neighbour for his entire life and he has probably seen Tywin be on the winning side once too many times to back the new challengers on the block.

But you ignore the most important point, again; a bet against Tywin is a bet against himself, Tywin isn't Paxter Redwyne, he isn't about to let his grandson inherit only part of his 'father's' kingdom.

[Frey Pie]

He bet on Tywin.

Balon didn't seem to have much faith in the 15 year old Robb and I'm guessing even less in Lysa Tully.

I don't think he ever considered that either Tywin would lose or that Robb would win. He's been Tywins neighbour for his entire life and he has probably seen Tywin be on the winning side once too many times to back the new challengers on the block.

Which would all be fine except for the fact that 14 (?) Years beforehand he attacked tywins home without a second thought. The situation was also such as Tywin had just suffered a major blow with a host of 15000 men becoming a host of 4000 overnight. Jaime, Tywin's primary commander, is now in Robb's hands. Renly has 80000 men marching on Tywin's family in KL. Given the situation and Balon's fearlessness and history of attacking Tywin, I find it very hard to credit him betting on Tywin being the winner in this situation. It's completely illogical to me unless I'm missing something?

[Municipal Engines]

Which would all be fine except for the fact that 14 (?) Years beforehand he attacked tywins home without a second thought. The situation was also such as Tywin had just suffered a major blow with a host of 15000 men becoming a host of 4000 overnight. Jaime, Tywin's primary commander, is now in Robb's hands. Renly has 80000 men marching on Tywin's family in KL. Given the situation and Balon's fearlessness and history of attacking Tywin, I find it very hard to credit him betting on Tywin being the winner in this situation. It's completely illogical to me unless I'm missing something?

You're missing that Balon was mad, and an idiot. ;)

[Chaircat Meow]

Which would all be fine except for the fact that 14 (?) Years beforehand he attacked tywins home without a second thought. The situation was also such as Tywin had just suffered a major blow with a host of 15000 men becoming a host of 4000 overnight. Jaime, Tywin's primary commander, is now in Robb's hands. Renly has 80000 men marching on Tywin's family in KL. Given the situation and Balon's fearlessness and history of attacking Tywin, I find it very hard to credit him betting on Tywin being the winner in this situation. It's completely illogical to me unless I'm missing something?

He didn't have a choice but to attack the lannister fleet in the first rebellion. They were Robert's supporters; he couldn't raid the seven kingdoms without Robert's lords responding, so you might as well strike first. The second time round he could get away with not fighting Tywin.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

We have no idea how many men were left at Moat Cailin and how many men were left on the Fever River guarding the ships.

Ramsay comes across 67 men who are complaining of the water being poisonous, no food supplies coming in, themselves killing each as well as the Crannogmen.

So while there would have been a bigger garrison, though I seriously doubt it was anywhere near a 1,000, it was not just the Crannogmen killing them but many factors most important of which was that their country men had given up on Moat Cailin for the Reach.

9/10 of the Iron Fleet left with Vic, leaving 10 ships, and thus 900-1,200 men to guard the Moat, a few hundred of these were probably killed by Dustin and Ryswell men on the Fever River, which means there were probably at least 600 guarding the Moat.

You are right that many of those who died weren't killed by Crannogmen (likely we see more from other causes because they were barely venturing outside by the time Theon showed up), but dying from the harsh conditions of the Neck is still dying.

So I don't see how it would have been better if Victarion had been there; if there is 'bad' water and the Ironborn can't easily tell the difference then many will still die from drinking it, if there is starvation then more people would make it worse; they can't easily import food from home, they can't forage in that area, they might be able to sustain themselves for a short time by raiding Flint and Dustin lands either side of the Saltspear, but that couldn't continue indefinitely. So the problems with starvation and sickness would be the same if Vic and the rest of the Iron Fleet remained.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

He didn't have a choice but to attack the lannister fleet in the first rebellion. They were Robert's supporters; he couldn't raid the seven kingdoms without Robert's lords responding, so you might as well strike first. The second time round he could get away with not fighting Tywin.

The only way he could declare independence without (eventually) fighting Tywin is if Robb, Renly or Stannis beat him first.

[Municipal Engines]

Robb planned to take the Moat by force, yet he didn't count any crannogmen in for the attack, probably there aren't many of them. Guerilla war is all they can do, at least this is implied to me.

Notably none marched south with him. They're not a people for fighting open battles or mounting proper sieges. They're good for skirmishing and guerilla warfare, which is why they were left behind to guard the Neck.

It's probable that the crannogmen would have joined him in the assault as he marched north anyway, at least as far as taking Moat Cailin back.

[Municipal Engines]

Double Post

[Frey Pie]

He didn't have a choice but to attack the lannister fleet in the first rebellion. They were Robert's supporters; he couldn't raid the seven kingdoms without Robert's lords responding, so you might as well strike first. The second time round he could get away with not fighting Tywin.

How does that make sense? Balon attacked Tywin without provocation when Tywin was part of the seven kingdoms with allies all over mainland Westeros. He was not afraid. He did not bet on Tywin winning this one but on himself

Then when Tywin's fighting for the throne and has no allies (one house fighting against 4 great houses with two neutral) all of a sudden Balon declares independence again (this undeniably makes him Tywin's enemy) and yet bets that Tywin will win against all the odds even thought he's already after suffering a crushing defeat.

This makes literally no sense and I don't see how anyone can say it does. I would say the exact same thing if for example he attacked Dorne in this situation.

Add this to the fact that the text indicates that it was Robert and Ned, along with Stannis and Pater Redwyne who took down the rebellion and his fear of Tywin makes zero sense

[Frey Pie]

9/10 of the Iron Fleet left with Vic, leaving 10 ships, and thus 900-1,200 men to guard the Moat, a few hundred of these were probably killed by Dustin and Ryswell men on the Fever River, which means there were probably at least 600 guarding the Moat.

You are right that many of those who died weren't killed by Crannogmen (likely we see more from other causes because they were barely venturing outside by the time Theon showed up), but dying from the harsh conditions of the Neck is still dying.

So I don't see how it would have been better if Victarion had been there; if there is 'bad' water and the Ironborn can't easily tell the difference then many will still die from drinking it, if there is starvation then more people would make it worse; they can't easily import food from home, they can't forage in that area, they might be able to sustain themselves for a short time by raiding Flint and Dustin lands either side of the Saltspear, but that couldn't continue indefinitely. So the problems with starvation and sickness would be the same if Vic and the rest of the Iron Fleet remained.

Agreed. Reading through game of thrones a few nights ago when the king journeys through the neck it shows just how inhospitable it is. This and the bog devils make it incredibly difficult for anyone to hold and I think the ironborn lost a few hundred men in the attempt while the north lost the initial garrison

[Barty]

At the office somehow bees always get in. A dangerous nuisance, but not a threatening one.

At no point does Victarion consider the Crannogmen a viable threat to retake Moat Cailin.

There is no proof that they are effective either. Robb is very desperate at this point. His first choice was to march to Gulltown and sail North

"The knights of the Vale could make all the difference in this war," said Robb, "but if she will not fight, so be it. I've asked only that she open the Bloody Gate for us, and provide ships at Gulltown to take us north. The high road would be hard, but not so hard as fighting our way up the Neck. If I could land at White Harbor I could flank Moat Cailin and drive the ironmen from the north in half a year."

That option was denied him. Once he heard that there was a Kingsmoot and the Victarion and his leaders would be gone he came up with the new plan, hoping to catch the Ironborn off guard.

Not 70% but 33%.

"There are ways through the Neck that are not on any map, Uncle. Ways known only to the crannogmen - narrow trails between the bogs, and wet roads through the reeds that only boats can follow." He turned to his two messengers. "Tell Howland Reed that he is to send guides to me, two days after I have started up the causeway. To the center battle, where my own standard flies. Three hosts will leave the Twins, but only two will reach Moat Cailin. Mine own battle will melt away into the Neck, to reemerge on the Fever. If we move swiftly once my uncle's wed, we can all be in position by year's end. We will fall upon the Moat from three sides on the first day of the new century, as the ironmen are waking with hammers beating at their heads from the mead they'll quaff the night before."

"I like this plan," said the Greatjon. "I like it well."

Galbart Glover rubbed his mouth. "There are risks. If the crannogmen should fail you . . . "

"We will be no worse than before. But they will not fail. My father knew the worth of Howland Reed." Robb rolled up the map, and only then looked at Catelyn. "Mother."

Robb had been a pretty adventurous commander but he is pretty desperate this point. When Cat warns about the Freys he ignores her, I think he was prepared to believe anything at this point as doubting would mean accepting the position he was in.

What I like about that exchange is Galbert questions it while the cheerleader Greatjon loves it.

He was desperate for the Knights of the Vale - which is very reasonable. And obviously a fleet would be a preferable way to get North (this way he can link up with several other allies before facing the Main IB strength at MC). He gives a perfectly reasonable explanation for why the Gulltown option is preferable (does not involve attacking MC from the south and pretty much guaranteeing high casualties).

The question is not whether Gulltown is preferable to the Neck - the question is whether Robb's plan to go via the Neck is feasible or not. And it is.

Robb may be an 'adventurous' commander but he was not stupid (except politically of course). I dont see why there is need to question his plan.

And it is 70% (or 66% if you want to be technical). Robb clearly states that MC will be attacked from 3 sides. 1 is clearly the south - the other 2 are west and North.