Balon Greyjoys master plan

[hodorisfaclessman]

Ok then I give up. The ironborn would win despite fighting a huge distance from home, fighting against even or more numbers of north men, having very little knowledge of the terrain, having little to no experience fighting in snow, and with no heavy or light cavalry.

They will also subvert the population and gain there trust through diplomacy. Over time the Northerners who have an inbuilt hate of the ironborn due to generations of raiding will come to appreciate the invaders. Despite their cultural and religious differences and despite the fact that there would be hundreds of old god followed for every drowned god they will accept losing their independence to this foreign king

The western side will fall nearly overnight while stark bannermen towards the centre and east will do nothing and roll over when their overlords come to claim there daughter as salt wives and sons as thralls

To think anything else could happen is pure Stark fanboyism and that's like so 1996

All hail Balon, King in the North

Look im not saying there arent risks they may take it all, some or none at alll but they have advantages as well as those disadvantages too

they have the initiative and their full fighting force assembled , their opp are spread out thinly over vast teritory and their holdfasts lightly guarded bar the major ones and most importantly they have planned ahead where they will strike the opp will be reacting to that ..the opening stages of the war will belong to them , once they have places like bear island and flints finger etc itl be hard to dig them out if ever.

bar the ones taken as saltwives/thralls for most what jorah said about high lords playing their game of thrones will apply

what can they do ? by the time they have hear about wheres being attacked then mustered forces places like bear island , flints finger will be ironborn held

they can campaign to take them back yes but taking holdfasts lightly defended by stealht is a lot easier than forcing them when well defended.

for example asha took 1000 men a month to take lightly defended deepwood motte......whats it gonna be like to root out the ironborn from that if its well defended? if you muster a large force say 4k to take it what happens if they land a similar sized force behind the besiegers?at what cost?

well you have to admit the whole 'no one could hold/defeat the north' does kinda sound like that

glad we can agree :cool4:

[Lady Blackmont]

Whatsits?

All the Ironborn did was take Deepwood Motte and raid the coastlines. They didn't capture Flint's Finger, or Bear Island, despite the logic involved in doing so.

Balon was as batshit crazy as Hitler, that is the only solution in my mind.

[Mithras]

It is really surprising how much shit Balon gets despite his plan actually being hugely successful. Had he not been assassinated (or fell of a bridge) the west coast of the North and Moat Cailin would still be under his control.

Lol. The crannogmen were kicking their asses at Moat Cailin and the Northmen would eventually attack from the North, which means it would fall easily.

[Mithras]

Rodrik Harlaw said what needed to be done in a few sentences:

"This dream of kingship is a madness in our blood. I told your father so the first time he rose, and it is more true now than it was then. It’s land we need, not crowns. With Stannis Baratheon and Tywin Lannister contending for the Iron Throne, we have a rare chance to improve our lot. Let us take one side or the other, help them to victory with our fleets, and claim the lands we need from a grateful king."

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Lol. The crannogmen were kicking their asses at Moat Cailin and the Northmen would eventually attack from the North, which means it would fall easily.

No they were not.

The majority of the Ironborn had left. The water and lack of food was kicking the remaining Ironborn's asses, not the Crannogmen.

[Lee-Sensei]

Balon was a bit stupid because the Starks were ready to let and help his kingdom exist, and had no fleet able to threaten him even if they changed their mind.

On the other hand whoever was going to win the iron throne (Joff or a Baratheon brother) was going to want to destroy him as soon the Starks and other rivals were dealt with, with the support of the large Redwyne fleet (+ the other large one of Stannis if it hadn't been destroyed), fleets who had already defeated him one time.

Balon succeeding would probably have led to Ironborn being forced to flee their islands, stormed like in his first rebellion, for the easier to defend north.

"The Starks were ready to let his Kingdom exist?" He doesn't need their approval. They offered him nothing.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

It is really surprising how much shit Balon gets despite his plan actually being hugely successful. Had he not been assassinated (or fell of a bridge) the west coast of the North and Moat Cailin would still be under his control.

But as Asha said, this gave the Ironborn nothing. Maybe they stole a few fishermen's daughters from the Stoney Shore, but that would have been about it, they gained no gold, no grain, no lumber, no permanent lands which could go to younger sons and such.

Saying it would "still" be under his control, a year after the start of the invasion isn't saying much, much of western Russia was under Nazi control a year after the start of Barbarossa, doesn't mean it was successful.

Let's assume Balon doesn't die, Victarion still sits in Moat Caillin, slowly losing his men to the Crannogmen. Roose cannot get north, but that's fine since Balon's attack on the north ensured that the Iron Throne would remain the dominant entity in Westeros, the new warden of the north can simply use their support to travel north via Maidenpool, Duskendale or King's Landing.

Roose being north doesn't even matter that much, Ramsay and Whoresbane alone have as many men as Asha does (assuming she keeps all 1,000 near her, which is unlikely considering she would have to feed them). Stannis has almost as much cavalry as Asha does soldiers. So Balon's death can't really be related to the Fall of Deepwood.

Torrhen's Square still stands, simply because neither of the two huge armies nearby can be bothered, this would be the same if Balon hadn't died.

And with Balon dead they still control the Stoney shore; a piece of land so populous and important that it is ruled by a Masterly house who's seat is 400 miles away.

So with Balon alive almost everything plays out the same, except it takes Roose far longer to get north, which probably means Stannis has taken much of it before Roose can get there.

Holding Moat Caillin is unimportant other than for protecting lands held north of Moat Caillin, since Stannis is the only one to have actually attacked the Ironborn north of Moat Caillin (and would have had a large numerical advantage regardless of whether Asha had 200 men or nearly 1,000) then we have to say it was unimportant for protecting the Ironborn controlled north in the long term.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

"The Starks were ready to let his Kingdom to exist?" He doesn't need there approval. They offered him nothing.

They offered to weaken the Iron Throne and destroy the Seven Kingdoms as a cohesive entity, something any Ironborn independence movement really needs.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

No they were not.

The majority of the Ironborn had left. The water and lack of food was kicking the remaining Ironborn's asses, not the Crannogmen.

Actually many were being killed by poisoned arrows before Victarion left, which is why he was terrified enough to sleep in his mail.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Actually many were being killed by poisoned arrows before Victarion left, which is why he was terrified enough to sleep in his mail.

How many is 'many'? Do you think Victarion considered the Ironborns position under threat when he was there or that the Crannogmen were a dangerous nuisance? Or that they were kicking their ass when Victarion (or even after) was still there?

Even after Vicarion and the vast majority of the Ironborn left the remaining men were complaining about the poisoned water and lack of food, as well as killing themselves.

"And who is this?" Reek gave the corpse a kick.

The guard stared at the dead man as if seeing him for the first time.

"Him ... he drank the water. I had to cut his throat for him, to stop his screaming. Bad belly. You can't drink the water. That's why we got the ale."

Dodgy water was killing them.

"How many of the garrison are left?"

"Some," said the ironman. "I don't know. Fewer than we was before. Some in the Drunkard's Tower too, I think. Not the Children's Tower. Dagon Codd went over there a few days back. Only two men left alive, he said, and they was eating on the dead ones. He killed them both, if you can believe that."

And they were killing themselves.

Obviously I disagree with the notion that the Crannogmen were kicking their ass, I'm surprised that you agree with it.

But as Asha said, this gave the Ironborn nothing. Maybe they stole a few fishermen's daughters from the Stoney Shore, but that would have been about it, they gained no gold, no grain, no lumber, no permanent lands which could go to younger sons and such.

It did give them plunder and would have given them lands. Not sure how you don't think any gold or grain was liberated from any of the three castles taken by the Iornborn. She was her fathers no 2, pretty sure that her plan is not too far away from her fathers.

Balon even starts negotiating peace with Tywin in ASOS. Like his daughter, I think he was ready to settle for a slice of the North, not the entire realm.

Let's assume Balon doesn't die, Victarion still sits in Moat Caillin, slowly losing his men to the Crannogmen. Roose cannot get north, but that's fine since Balon's attack on the north ensured that the Iron Throne would remain the dominant entity in Westeros, the new warden of the north can simply use their support to travel north via Maidenpool, Duskendale or King's Landing.

Very, very, very slowly. Slow enough not to make any actual impact.

As I said, Balon had already started negotiating peace terms with Tywin. Like any negotiator he started high but I personally think he would have eventually settled for less.

Holding Moat Caillin is unimportant other than for protecting lands held north of Moat Caillin, since Stannis is the only one to have actually attacked the Ironborn north of Moat Caillin (and would have had a large numerical advantage regardless of whether Asha had 200 men or nearly 1,000) then we have to say it was unimportant for protecting the Ironborn controlled north in the long term.

It was incredibly important. It locks Robb and the Northern army outside of the North trapped with their enemies in the South. Balon was counting on Tywin doing him a huge favour by weakening Robb and Moat Cailin doing the rest.

Just like in the past when the Ironborn had held parts of the North I really dont think the plan was too hold all of it. As many say, it is far too big but they could have held parts.

[Lord Wraith]

All I want to know if Balon knew that the Maester had sent the white ravens to signal that winter was coming. Anyone trying to invade/hold the North during winter is clearly an idiot. As Stannis is currently learning, but at least Stannis went to fight the Others and not reave.

[Frey Pie]

The ironborn didn't hold much land, but they held hostages and all the pivotal castles. This is almost equal to owning the land. Their weakness in calvary will remain, but horses can't fight a castle. I don't see why the ironborn would be unfamiliar with fighting in snow.

The ironborn owned the riverlands and allowed the faith to chill, why not in the north? And the north already bent the knee to Aegon crowned by the high septon.

I agree that the populous despises Ironborn, but they've hated Jons wildling friends longer and they hate they're warden with his freyish court even more.

I do believe that if Euron never showed up, the ironborn would control the north, now that he has, they'll probably take all westeros

All the pivotal castles...like WF which was taken straight back? No horses stop s allying parties and will be used to flank the ironborn in any engagement.

And did you really just say all this?

Snow- george went to great pains to show us the difference between northerners and southerners in winter. Ironborn are southerners. Have they even the gear to survive in winter? Never mind fight? And how about those reinforcements? How will those boats fair off the ice shores during winter? With that Wind we've all been waiting for??

And Aegon...ya Aegon who has 3 dragons and a bigger any then the north. The one who just roasted a few kings in a few weeks. Not balon greyjoy. Greatjon even said the north knelt to the dragons....Nobody will accept balon.

And Roose...ya the guy who is being attacked by stannis and the support of several northern houses. and the ironborn will divide support in the same way?

And the end sentence....and anyone can call me a Stark fanboy? Who admitted the ironborn could hold bear island cos it actually makes sense if they were smart enough to do it? Yet you can say euron will take the world and that's fine? Well ok then...

[John Doe]

People say he is stupid because he attacked the poor North rather tha. the rich Westerlands. They forget however that he did not attack for the loot. The North was a good target, I'll list the reasons why here:

- the North was independent, thus isolated. From his first rebellion Balon knew he couldn't hold his own against the Iron Throne, one kingdom at a time however is another matter.

- The North is not densely populated, which makes it easier to attack before reinforcements arrive and to take land.

-The mayority of the Northeners were south, miles away from their homelands. At Moatailin he had a strong defensive position from which he could ensure it would stay that way.

-Ned Stark took Balons son, vengeance was clearly a motive here.

- Tywin was too cunning. People call bs on that line, but it held water as we saw during the RW.

- Even now, the North is separated and close to a civil war. Without Stannis' men and with proper reinforcements theIB would still be a force in the North.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

All the pivotal castles...like WF which was taken straight back? No horses stop s allying parties and will be used to flank the ironborn in any engagement.

In fairness Balon, Asha and the Ironborn in general were not really interested in keeping Winterfell. That was just Theon and a handful of men. Had he been able to convince his sister to give him a few hundred men he may still be in there right now.

[John Doe]

Attacking Winterfell was stupid, but that wasn't his idea.

Attacking it was smart, Theon would have hurt the enemy morally by attacking and maybe destroying their capital, andhe would have secured valuable hostages. The dumb part was trying to hold it with 50 men. Wtf

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

As I said, Balon had already started negotiating peace terms with Tywin. Like any negotiator he started high but I personally think he would have eventually settled for less.

It was incredibly important. It locks Robb and the Northern army outside of the North trapped with their enemies in the South. Balon was counting on Tywin doing him a huge favour by weakening Robb and Moat Cailin doing the rest.

Just like in the past when the Ironborn had held parts of the North I really dont think the plan was too hold all of it. As many say, it is far too big but they could have held parts.

Except there is no possibility of a long term agreement. Since we are ignoring unexpected deaths in your scenario we'll pretend Tyrion doesn't kill Tywin.

Tywin wants to name his own warden of the north so that his grandson remains lord of the Seven Kingdoms, and not just 5 or 6 of them. Whether this is his grandson by Tyrion or someone else it does not matter, this person will not be eager to share his lands, and will be unable to win the support of much of the northern nobility unless he completely opposes the Ironborn.

Nor is Tywin stupid, 3 out of the last 4 times the Ironborn have rejected the authority of the Iron Throne it has been the West that has suffered the most, a strong independent Iron Islands is very bad for him.

Tywin is accepting of Balon's pretensions for the moment, but when the more important and immediate opposition to his grandson's rule is gone he will turn his attention to the Iron Islands. Being such a Tywin fanboy I'm surprised you would believe for a moment Tywin would compromise on this issue when he obviously wouldn't and definitely shouldn't.

Your point about taking Moat Caillin weakening Robb would be valid, if Robb was his main enemy, but his main enemies at the start of ACOK and named Tywin, Renly and Stannis, Robb doesn't care if he declares independence, the other three most definitely do.

The plan Balon laid out was to take the entire north, including eventually taking Winterfell.

[John Doe]

Wasn' Renly dead when Balon attacked?

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

Wasn' Renly dead when Balon attacked?

It's kind of ambiguous, Renly was dead by the time Balon's independence was widely known, but he was probably alive when the first longships reached the north.

[Frey Pie]

In fairness Balon, Asha and the Ironborn in general were not really interested in keeping Winterfell. That was just Theon and a handful of men. Had he been able to convince his sister to give him a few hundred men he may still be in there right now.

I think it was a very smart move (completely unplanned by balon though which is the point) but should have been abandoned. However if he had been given men he might have been able to hold it for a while. I doubt Ramsay would have attacked in this situation or if he did he'd still have been welcomed in after with all his men leading to a surprise slaughter once again...Alternatively WF would have been taken by siege eventually

In any case the main and undeniable reason for Balon's plan being dumb is the following

At the beginning of the war balon declares independence. This makes him an enemy of the Iron throne. So his enemies are

Tywin

Stannis

Renly

Robb is neutral at worst, ally at best

So naturally he should try to weaken his enemies correct? What is the logic in doing anything else? but he attacks the one neutral party. In doing so he strengthens his enemies and assures his own defeat. This is why it is illogical. It's not being a fan of the Starks. I am a fan of the Starks but Jaime is my favourite remaining character. The plan makes no sense from a strategic pov and that is the main flaw disregarding all others

[John Doe]

I think it was a very smart move (completely unplanned by balon though which is the point) but should have been abandoned. However if he had been given men he might have been able to hold it for a while. I doubt Ramsay would have attacked in this situation or if he did he'd still have been welcomed in after with all his men leading to a surprise slaughter once again...Alternatively WF would have been taken by siege eventually

If Ramsay still had attacked, Asha had reinforced Winterfell and they had not let Ramsay in, the latter probably wouldn't have been able to take it. I would still have abandoned the place though, and show up at the kingsmoot with Dagmer and Loren as supporters and the Stark boys as hostages.