The Ten Theories you are sure about (Now with %s)

[Curled Finger]

99% R+L=J

90% Gregor is Robert Strong and Sandor is the Grave Digger

95% GNC & Citadel is out to eliminate magic

80% FM & Red Priests are not good guys  Stannis won't be the one to burn Shireen

75% A+J=T & Ashara Dayne is alive

70% Margaery is the younger more beautiful queen & Jamie is valonquar

65% BR & COTF are good guys

50% Dany Jon & Tyrion are the dragons' 3 heads  Sansa will sit the IT at the end

30% Bran will affect the future through the past and will not become consciousness in a tree

20% Sam's parents will buy the story he is Gilly's baby's father

10% Arya just goes on a killing spree without ever becoming normal

5%  Roose Bolton is some superunnatural being

0%  Stannis will sit the IT ever

 

Not even what I really want, just the way it all looks to me now that I sat through the show and have the World book to reference. 

[slant]

99 Robert + Lyanna = Jon 

[The Dragons Hand]

100% R+L=J

  90% The gravedigger is the Hound

  80% Ser Robert Strong is a surrogate shadowbaby of Gregor made by Qyburn

  70% Aegon BrightFyre

  60% Jon mounts Rhaegal

  50% A+J=T

  40% Jeyne Westerling is pregnant

  30% Dany/Jon marriage

  20% Arya will die and warg into Nymeria

  10% Robb Jr will be the next Lord of Winterfell

  00% Illemonati

[Codename: Nymeria]

99.99%, approaching 100%: R+L=J

90%: LF is the "stone giant" of Bran's dreams

80%: there's a clear connection between the magic in the wall and the magic than animates the others

70%: Season 6 of GOT will air before TWoW is published

60%: the Maesters possess more knowledge about dragons than we've been led to believe

50%: Bolt-on

40%: there's another dragon still alive

30%: GRRM is a secret identity

20%: Jon & Arya will marry

10%: The Lemon tree will be relevant in any way whatsoever

0.5%: Time travel has anything to do with the story

0%: Any character is not secretly Jaqen H'ghar

[falcotron]

30%: GRRM is a secret identity
0%: Any character is not secretly Jaqen H'ghar

Is there a contradiction here, or are you just assuming that GRRM is so obviously Jaqen H'ghar that it doesn't count as a secret?

[slant]

99 GRRM is Jerry Garcia 

[Codename: Nymeria]

Is there a contradiction here, or are you just assuming that GRRM is so obviously Jaqen H'ghar that it doesn't count as a secret?

 

I...don't think GRRM is a character. Just an alter ego.

 

While I'm at it, two bonus percentages:

33.333(repeating)%: Ser Duncan the Tall has a living descendant.

4%: Arya is the third dragonrider.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

That Rhaegar ,Viserys and Daenerys were the three headed dragon 100%

Jon will always be known as lord Snow 100%

Samwell will always be over weight even during a famine 100%

That Jon is Lyanna's son 80% but not Rhaegar 70%

Sansa will be the lady of the Vale 80%

Jon Snow and Daenerys will meet at the Trident to battle each other 60%

The skull sent down to Dorne was Robert's 50%

The Valonqar is Penny 60%

King's Landing willbe burned down by Cercei 90%

Margaery and Aegon will be the next king and queen of Westeros 60%

Three more books for ASOIAF 100%

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

However there are some I would like to recognize as particularly crazy.

...

And last but not least any theory involving that friggin' lemon tree

0% The Lemmongate conspiracy (or any House-with-the-red-door variations thereof)

  00% Illemonati

10%: The Lemon tree will be relevant in any way whatsoever

Your tears shall be delicious.

[Van Gogh]

100%

 

1. Benjen is alive
2. Bran will never leave that cave
3. Jon will warg into Ghost to save his soul
4. Tyrion will find Tasha and Jorah will find Lynesse (not saying they'll be happy, just that they will meet again)
5. Khal Drogo is never coming back
6. Daenerys and Drogon are bonded
7. Hizdahr is not the harpy

 

50%

 

1. Sansa will kill Robert Arryn
2. Jaime will kill Cersei
3. Ned Dayne will kill Arya

[Lord Wraith]

Your tears shall be delicious.

 

Just make lemonade.

[falcotron]

Your tears shall be delicious.

Lemon tree very pretty, and the lemon tears smell sweet
But the plot of the poor lemon is an impossibility

[Victarion Chainbreaker]

Lemon tree very pretty, and the lemon tears smell sweet
But the plot of the poor lemon is an impossibility

Lemon trees are pretty, but they're not really sweet.

Their sour fruit prefers to grow in Dornish desert heat.

If you can read a map, then it's obvious to see,

A lemon tree in Braavos stretches plausibility.

[Joe Blackfyre]

Here's my thoughts =

 

1 Jaqen is Rhaegar in disguise. (thread link)

 

Short Summary:

(Aragorn parallels, GRRM can't leave the Aragorn trope alone in interviews or non-fictional text in his books, glass candles/palantir, Sam suspicions, "Pate" mention in LOTR chapter 10, GRRM twisting another trope.

Tyrion brings up "at least Rhaegar is dead" in AGOT with absolutely no reason or prompting, and Rhaegar was never even Tywin's enemy! The only purpose it can serve (like Jorah Mormont a known liar saying "Rhaegar died" in an extremely long-winded way in ASOS) is dramatic irony if Rhaegar actually is alive.)

 

2 Daenerys is a Blackfyre from Bittersteel's line. (thread link)

 

Short Summary:

(Her personality change in last ADWD chapter, irony for Barristan Selmy, Bittersteel's mother picture in TWOIAF is identical to Emilia Clarke, Bittersteel's house symbol is a horse with wings, Bittersteel is listed as born in the same year as the first Daenerys, Daemon Blackfyre's wife was Rohanne of Tyrosh etc. Daario comes from Tyrosh and he is wearing bright yellow to link him to "lemons", therefore implying the lemon tree was in Tyrosh. Tyrosh is the first place Bittersteel travelled to with Daemon's sons, and Bittersteel is wearing yellow in his TWOIAF picture. Plus this means that all this time she was as much an usurper as Robert Baratheon.)

 

3 The Reynes of Castamere probably aren't dead, no-one's seen the bodies.

 

Short Summary:

(Castamere is a clear reference to Underland in the Narnia books (the Lannisters are chock full of Narnia references) and at the end of the Silver Chair there are still people living in Bism.

How bizarre is it that Castamere had all this wealth and no-one opened the underground castle to get the money. Even Tywin should have been practical enough to do so and get more jewels etc. The only reason it could have been left closed is future plot development logic at the expense of narrative logic... i.e. in order to pull the Reyne's out of the hat later, possibly for revenge on House Lannister, GRRM can't have people inspecting their execution site and not find any bodies. I suspect Castmere is part of a vast underground network of tunnels left over from the Long Night and will be used again in the Second Long Night.

 

4 Everything to do with the Lannisters and the Tyrells is connected to C.S. Lewis and J.R.R. Tolkien.

 

Lannisters = lion symbol          = symbolises Lewis' Jesus figure Aslan (even the name is a clue)

Tyrells = rose symbol               = symbolises Tolkien's love of nature

(The first letters of the family names are the same as the authors they are parodying/playing with. Tyrell, Tolkien. Lannisters, Lewis.)

C.S. Lewis had Cair Paravel as the main capital of his world = House Casterly and Casterly Rock.

Tolkien had several capitals in his world. I will say that Highgarden symbolises Lothlorien mixed with the Shire and Oldtown = Minas Tirith.

Note that Highgarden combines the "high" from high fantasy with Tolkien's love of nature, and that House Hightower seem very similar to Denethor in LOTR in that they likely have a glass candle (representing a palantir) which they use for spying and mind-wrestling, and they live in a great big tower like Denethor.

The maesters who are based in Oldtown are the symbol of not just LOTR loremasters, healers and wisemen, but also Oxford dons (the Citadel itself and how exclusive and traditional it is is meant to represent Oxford or the Inklings circle/viewpoints.

 

(This is another reason why Jaqen is Rhaegar... the Aragorn analogue is spending a lot of time in a city which is a thinly disguised verison of Tolkien's old working environment. The city lies in a land (the Reach) with a history/mythology strongly related to Tolkien's legendarium. The analogue is close to (operating?) the glass candle of Marwyn (which is obviously a palantir reference) and flying under the nose of House Hightower who has schemed against the Targaryens before. Just as Denethor schemes against Aragorn in LOTR, who had previously was in disguise in Minas Tirith as Thorongil. He was also a man of many names. Anyway sidetrack over.)

 

The Tyrells are noted as being extremely loyal to the Targaryen kings - reflecting Tolkien's love of the divine right of kings. The backstory of Garth Greenhand and the many descendants is very similar to the huge sprawling hobbit family trees found at the back of LOTR. And of course Samwise Gamgee = Samwell Tarly. Possibly Olenna is a lighter version of Lobelia Sachville-Baggins, to present something more female empowering?

 

The Lannisters have a enormous sttone motif that keeps appearing in this story. I think that's linked to both the White Witch's stone wand and the Stone table. Also of note is Tyrion Lannister being a sceptic dwarf - the last king of Narnia was called Tirian and had sceptical dwarfs as his enemy. The continual references to the gods of tits and wine is a reference to the River-god and the dancing naiads and dryads in

Prince Caspian. The voyages of King Tommen of the Rock and then later of Gerion Lannister is clearly a Voyage of the Dawn Treader reference.

 

Also the fact that the Lannisters and the Tyrells are shown to be the most devious of the houses is a morality-flip by GRRM who wants to present old tropes in a different way.

 

Note that they allied together against the Targ's dragons (an echo of Tolkien and Lewis' friendships, and nations that represent their world fighting against Valyrians who represent Moorcock's Melniboneans... and losing, as Martin prefers Moorcock's philosophy/politics/stories.)

 

5 Astronomy symbolism theory from Lucifer means Lightbringer. (thread link)

 

Short Summary:

(I believe at least the part of this theory relating to the two swords Oathbreaker and Widow's Wail, and the apple shooting competition representing comet activity which may have caused the long night. There's too many links between swords/comets/dragons to discount that. I'm not sure we can draw conclusions about the GEODawnians and what happened with the Bloodstone Emperor yet though... however I am keeping an open mind.)

 

6 The code of three/corn code from Ser Creighton. (thread link)

 

Short Summary:

(Things being repeated three times is a foreshadowing of doom. Robb was doomed by this in ABOT, Stannis and Asha are both also possibly doomed. Houses with only three words in their mottos are living on borrowed time. This has also been called the corn code due to Mormont's raven who repeats words three times a lot. Hearsay says that GRRM debunked this but the person who got that 'confirmation' was himself a furious and loud sceptic, so keep reading carefully. I think there is something to this one, especially if you tie it to the idea that one planet and two moons fell into disaster (see theory number 5.) I think this is one of those prose methods that fantasy/literary scholars will look back at in 20 years time. The thread link is the best and oldest summarisation I could find.)

 

7 There will be a fire enemy in Essos as dangerous as the Others in Westeros, that must be dealt with.

 

Short Summary:

We can tell this saga is not going to be wrapped up in 2 more books. We have 3 areas of action, the North, South Westeros and Essos. If each book is about 72 chapters, that's 24 chapters roughly to deal with each area (if this is being balanced out, which looking at the number of POV characters in each area would seem to indicate. 5 of the Meereen chapters have been shown and Volantis hasn't appeared yet, and this is not including Arya's or Dany's chapters in that total of 24. If the story is going to be larger than 7 books, what will Dany be doing in Essos for all that time? My suspicion is that she will be fighting a fire enemy from Valyria (possibly Sauron or H.P. Lovecraft influenced) which is being referenced to as "the dark eye" by Moqorro. Watch Euron and Daario very closely folks, they may be part of a Nazgul/Forsaken analogue.

 

8 The Second Dance of Dragons will be a change back to normal backstabbing and costly war after two magical enemies have been defeated seperately by the future contenders for the throne (Dany and perhaps Jon and Rhaegar).

 

The magical signs of two dangerous elemental enemies have been built up to such a high level now they can't really be resolved without some heroic tropes. But I think that's intentional. GRRM is trying to pull the rug out from us yet again. It's "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice same on me" on an enormous scale. After showing with Ned';s death and the Red Wedding twice that this is a cruel world he has invented, GRRM will bring back our hope and optimism one more time (with the defeat of two magical enemies by royal heirs) to crush it again (by haiving the two royal heirs, possibly Jon=Ice and Dany=Fire, fight each other and the realm getting ripped apart in the process, like in the First Dance).

 

It's kind of evil isn't it? :devil:

 

9 Quentyn is alive. (video link)

 

Yes some of what Preston says is far-fetched (I don't agree with Part 4 of his Dornish Master Plan) but this makes sense when you closely examine the main text. Also remember how many death fake-outs we have now had in this narrative, and examine how other characters rather when they died.

Another good thread to read regarding this theory is this one by Fearsome Fred. (link) It brings up new points which I think makes very good logical sense and offers some interesting ideas.

 

10 The Children of the Forest will turn out to be antagonists, not kind helpers. (video link)

 

This fits GRRM's cynical mind. If, as explained above, the Lannisters and Tyrells and Hightowers and maesters and septons are the most scheming characters and groups in the world of Planetos as a deliberate role-reversal of how they were portrayed in works by Tolkien and Lewis and Tolkien's imitators from 1977 onwards - then it makes sense that hobbits and ents would be next on GRRM's grimdarkening list. I think the elves have already been twisted into a different form, as the Others. See GRRM's description of them as "the Sidhe made of ice" to a comic artist and ASOIAF's close symbolic links to Tad Williams' Memory, Sorrow and Thorn which had anti-elves as the antagonists.  So to 'complete the set', I think the COTF and weirwoods are dark versions of hobbits and ents.

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------.

 

My two most favorite theories are the Jaqen=Rhaegar one and the Daenerys is a Blackfyre from Bittersteel one. I will try to update both those threads in the future with new discoveries, but real life work is taking up a lot of time at the moment.

 

I will say that I have made several bets with people that Jaqen is going to unmask as Rhaegar in Season 6, and this is why Sam is going to the Citadel when it might seem like one subplot too many for the TV show. It provides logic as to why we are slowly and clearly having the Faceless Men's powers explained to the audience and not hand-waved (also showing and stressing that Jaqen is only a mask to the general audience), why we are getting Rhaegar mentions in Season 5 and not earlier. It explains why there isn't a Young Griff in the show - more emphasis can be concentrated on Rhae rhae as a contender for the throne when the reveal is made. Probably the "best swordsman in Europe" audition is for Rhaegar, not for Arthur Dayne or Jon Connington.

 

And most importantly, it explains why we didn't get a Rhaegar flashback in the House of the Undying when it would otherwise help explain the backstory so much. If the actor for Rhaegar had been cast in Season 2 and then he was spotted on set during the production of Season 6, fan websites like this one would go crazy. Here the producers have "plausible deniability" so no-one will know Jaqen is really Rhaegar until the whole internet goes berserk when 6x09 or 6x10 finishes.

[Joe Blackfyre]

By the way I am 100% sure of all my preferred theories. Just adding that now as the post doesn't seem to want to let me edit it anymore.

[Raving Stark the Mad]

100% Ungregor

99.5% Arellas=Sarella

98% R+L=J

75% Jon Snow is only mostly dead

80% Jacquen=Pate

60% Jaime is going to kill Cersei

60% Second dance of dragons

50% Aegon is real

35% Pink letter was written by Mance

-1% Any one theory of Joe Blackfyre is true

[Joe Blackfyre]

100% Ungregor

99.5% Arellas=Sarella

98% R+L=J

75% Jon Snow is only mostly dead

80% Jacquen=Pate

60% Jaime is going to kill Cersei

60% Second dance of dragons

50% Aegon is real

35% Pink letter was written by Mance

-1% Any one theory of Joe Blackfyre is true

 

So Raving Stark the Mad, you're saying that not one, but instead all of my theories are true? Thanks a bundle, very generous of you! ;)

[Eiko Dragonhorn]

 

So Raving Stark the Mad, you're saying that not one, but instead all of my theories are true? Thanks a bundle, very generous of you! ;)

 

I'm not sure whether to complain about the impossibility of a negative % probability or your lack of logic...

 

If all of your theories were true, the statement that "any one theory of Joe Blackfyre is true" would also be true. The only way "any one theory of Joe Blackfyre is true" remains false (as implied by a mathematically corrected 0% probability) is if all your theories are incorrect.

[Raving Stark the Mad]

 

I'm not sure whether to complain about the impossibility of a negative % probability or your lack of logic...

 

Somebody's humor processor is broken.  Take this droid down to maintenance. 

[VicAndTheSquidSquad]

I like how the title says 'the theories you are sure about' and then some of you comes up with 10%s. It means you're 90% sure that it's not true.