Aegon is not a Blackfyre

[Sullen]

5 minutes ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

Whatever he might, say I personally don't think he just forgot about Elia and the royal children like he claims to Tyrion. Their death and the Sack of KL was innocent people paying for a very very personal beef between Aerys and Tywin. 

He doesn't say he forgot about the royal children, in fact, he quite candidly admits that he ordered their deaths to Tyrion. This cold and brutal honesty makes it unlikely he lied about Elia. I mean, he just admitted that he ordered the murder of children, and knows that Tyrion is aware he is able to order his men to rape to punish people, he has absolutely no reason to lie here.

[The Fresh PtwP]

Tyrion could at least understand why the heirs would have to go. Aegon pretty much had to die. Some lords would've killed Rhaenys. But Elia?

Tywin never justifies Elia, he conveniently forgets, because you can't justify killing a Dornish princess with "they laughed at me one time." 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, The Fresh PtwP said:

Elia and Rhaenys wouldn't of come to any harm from most lords except Tywin...who as it happens, is alot more emotional and petty then he lets on. 

Way back, Aerys made a couple jokes when he declined Tywin's proposal of Cersei and Rhaegar. A couple people snickered at House Lannister and that was enough for Tywin, when given the opportunity, to avenge those slights from years ago (that btw nobody even cared about)...in the cruelest of fashions.

Whatever he might, say I personally don't think he just forgot about Elia and the royal children like he claims to Tyrion. Their death and the Sack of KL was innocent people paying for a very very personal beef between Aerys and Tywin. 

And we learn in TWOIAF that he "handpicked" Amory and Gregor. 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

1 hour ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Even if she was a girl Rhaenys was still an heir hence any lord, except Ned, would had done the same one way or another.\

Even if it was the truth she still had Aegon in her arms instead of even trying to go to Rhaenys.

Only as Lost Melnibonean had said I am not talking about the swap but about Rhaenys.

Viserys was named heir...

And I still don't get it, maybe I'm being thick... But why would anyone expect Tywin's men to kill Rhaenys? Aerys, his childhood friend, opened the gates for him... Besides Varys it isn't clear to me anyone was suspicious.

And killing Rhaenys didn't really serve a purpose... In fact having her around to marry to someone could have been helpful in reconciling Roberts new kingdom.

Sansa is a great parallel... She clearly holds value to the Lanisters, even though they killed her dad... And she is somewhere in the line of Winterfell's succession.

But all of this is secondary to the simple fact that we have no idea the details of the sack and Rhaegar's 1st family's murder and/or swapscape.

But maybe I still just don't understand? It seems like Elia might have ran to Aegon because he was a baby? And a likely target for soldiers? And who knows, maybe Rhaenys's room was far away? I mean it just seems like a lot of grey

[Jon's Queen Consort]

7 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Viserys was named heir...

And yet in the books no one seemed to know. So either it never happened or never happened in public. In any case Rhaenys would still be in the line.

7 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

But why would anyone expect Tywin's men to kill Rhaenys?

Because killing the heirs is what any Lord who knew how the game works would had done.

7 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

And killing Rhaenys didn't really serve a purpose... In fact having her around to marry to someone could have been helpful in reconciling Roberts new kingdom.

No. An heir is always a danger. Rhaenys could had married someone who could had started a war in her name.

7 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Sansa is a great parallel... She clearly holds value to the Lanisters, even though they killed her dad... And she is somewhere in the line of Winterfell's succession.

The Lannisters need WF and that is why Sansa was left alive, to produce a Lannister heir to WF

Quote

When you bring Eddard Stark's grandson home to claim his birthright, lords and little folk alike will rise as one to place him on the high seat of his ancestors.

 when they already had the IT through Cersei's marriage to the new King. So Rhaenys was a danger who had nothing to offer. 

 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

26 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

And yet in the books no one seemed to know. So either it never happened or never happened in public. In any case Rhaenys would still be in the line.

Because killing the heirs is what any Lord who knew how the game works would had done.

No. An heir is always a danger. Rhaenys could had married someone who could had started a war in her name.

The Lannisters need WF and that is why Sansa was left alive, to produce a Lannister heir to WF

 when they already had the IT through Cersei's marriage to the new King. So Rhaenys was a danger who had nothing to offer. 

 

It becomes an immediately moot point since both Aery's and Aegon were killed in the Sack... Why mention it? We do know Aery's forbid Elia to leave with Rhaella... But Viserys would come before Rhaenys anyway.

Ok, I guess what I'm saying is that usually conquering lords don't kill the daughter of their defeated foe. Tyson had sat out the war and was buying his way onto the winning team with the gruesome murders.

And you wouldn't let her choose her husband! That's the whole point... Like Sansa you can just use the family dwarf, younger son, or cripple or whoever... Jeof could have been married to Rhaenys and think how much more sense it would make... Or hell what about Renly, that might have been a match.

Is it a risk... I guess, it's not like there aren't already other Targs who escaped, one in your power might have been valuable.

And Cersei wasn't engaged to Robert at this point... That happened after he found out that Lyanna died and was reconciled with Ned (they fought over the murder of the Targ kids). But I do think Tywun saw Elia and her children as having taken what was rightfully Cersei's place... 

Anyway, I enjoy the conversation

[Good Guy Garlan]

I love this theory so much:

"Varys is ignorant of young Griff's real identity.  He believes the young man is the real Prince Aegon, son of Rhaegar and Elia of Dorne.  Illyrio cheated Varys and switched the children without Varys knowing."

So many baby switches, it's like a baby switching factory! 

 

[Sullen]

1 minute ago, Good Guy Garlan said:

I love this theory so much:

"Varys is ignorant of young Griff's real identity.  He believes the young man is the real Prince Aegon, son of Rhaegar and Elia of Dorne.  Illyrio cheated Varys and switched the children without Varys knowing."

So many baby switches, it's like a baby switching factory! 

 

Unbeknownst to Illyrio, Varys noticed and actually reswitched the baby, making the fake Aegon actual Aegon. It's genius, no one could ever see it coming. 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

21 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Unbeknownst to Illyrio, Varys noticed and actually reswitched the baby, making the fake Aegon actual Aegon. It's genius, no one could ever see it coming. 

Meanwhile Jon Connington, having discovered Illyrio's baby switch... And because he's a grump. Makes a switch himself with a sell sword captain, however Varys had already swapped in the correct babe (having discovered Illyrio's plot) and now Aegon is Daario...

[The Fresh PtwP]

Rhaenys isn't heir though, precedent after precedent makes her basically zero threat to the throne while still being a valuable political piece. 

Same goes for Elia. This is why I (deep breath) believe Varys. Varys smuggled Aegon out only because IMO he was the one in immediate danger. Nobody expected Elia and Rhaenys...which is why the deaths are brought up so often (From people of varying standings, so we can perceive how the event is seen as a whole) and partially why nobody likes Tywin. 

[Erudain]

Never forget, the magic baby switch-a-roo plot only works in hindsight.
Varys can claim he switched the babies because he knows Gregor smashed Aegons head against a wall and he is unrecognisable.

Even if he suspects Gregor and Loch are coming to kill Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon, Varys had no way to know "how" they were going to kill them.
Aegon was 1 year old when he was killed, 1 year old babies already show distinctive facial features, and everyone on court knew Rhaenys had Elia's dornish look while Aegon had the Targ looks.
Say....Varys switches the babies and Gregor chokes him to death? or stabs hims? or whatever that doesn't destroy the baby facial features?
You'd need a baby with the exact same looks Aegon had, otherwise when they presented the baby to Robert, Ned, Tywin, Jaime, etc, everyone would had find out right there that was not Aegon, and looked at Varys inmediately....Targs looks are not something you find on a Flea Bottom abandoned baby.

Now in hindsight, knowing how Gregor already killed Aegon and knowing he cannot be recognised, then you can come up with all this scheme and say you switched the babies.
 

[Sullen]

54 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Meanwhile Jon Connington, having discovered Illyrio's baby switch... And because he's a grump. Makes a switch himself with a sell sword captain, however Varys had already swapped in the correct babe (having discovered Illyrio's plot) and now Aegon is Daario...

Wait... I'm going to need a timeline and a chart to keep track of who really is Aegon, and who do individual people believe is Aegon/FAegon at every given point...

So initially, you've got the Aegon/Pisswater Prince mixup, so the Princewater Prince dies, and people think the Aegon died.

But then, Illyrio betrays Varys, and switches Aegon with his own son...

Varys noticing the switch, switches back, so now Aegon is Aegon, but Illyrio believes it's his son, who he believes is actually his son...

Jon Connington, thinking Aegon is not actually Aegon, but Illyrio's son, decides to switch him with the sellsword's baby (Daario), which means he believes that Illyrio's son is Daario while it's actually Aegon, and he's completely unaware of where is the real Aegon.

Illyrio believes he outsmarted Varys and Jon Connington, and that his son is now FAegon, but he was actually replaced twice since then...

Meanwhile, Varys believes that Aegon is Aegon, but is unaware that he's actually dealing with a sellsword's son, the real Daario.

So they all start a campaign for Aegon, no matter who he truly is, all believing they outsmarted each other while none of them know who or where the actual Aegon is... and that leaves one question unanswered: Where the hell is Illyrio's son?

So many questions and double-crosses, it's brilliant.

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Meanwhile Jon Connington, having discovered Illyrio's baby switch... And because he's a grump. Makes a switch himself with a sell sword captain, however Varys had already swapped in the correct babe (having discovered Illyrio's plot) and now Aegon is Daario...

Now, we are getting somewhere. 

[Isobel Harper]

On 4/19/2016 at 11:42 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Oh, okay. I'm good with ideas. Was just wondering if there was more to it. 

If you want to discuss the Blackfyres some more, by all means send me a message. I've been thinking more about BBP lately and how it would be so convenient for him to be one cause the dragons already like him. 

There's also something I caught in AFfC the other day.  I might be reading too much into Areo's wording, but it seems that Areo refers to Mellario as "his princess." 

The white knight. The captain frowned. Ser Arys had come to Dorne to attend his own princess, as Areo Hotah had once come with his.

Norvos is a theocracy.  It doesn't make any sense that Mellario would be a Princess of Norvos. 

[Trogdor Targaryen]

On 4/18/2016 at 9:10 PM, Widowmaker 811 said:

The lie has nothing to do with who sits on the iron throne.  It has to do with impostors trying to pass off as Azor Ahai.  Stannis making a claim for the iron throne involves no deception.  His Azor Ahai claim involves big deception.  And Varys is not the only mummer in the story.  Mellisandre is also a mummer.  Mellisandre may try to pass Jon off as Azor Ahai and that will be the deception that Dany will have to destroy.  Jon is not Azor Ahai after all. 

Alright, on to the OP's theory.  Yes, Aegon could be the "real deal" and Varys is passing him off as a Blackfyre.  I understand, there is no reason for Varys to lie to a dying man.  Varys is a skilled spymaster and I don't think there is any way Mopatis can switch the boys and him not find out about it.  I want to take this one step farther and simplify it.  Aegon is the "real deal" and his handlers made a deal with the Golden Company to give them back their lands and status if they support his campaign for the throne.  Does it really matter whether he's a Targaryen or a Blackfyre if he can give them a better life than that of a mercenary?  I think they will readily accept a true Targaryen and support his or her claim to the throne if it meant getting back home.

I think Jon is more likely to be azor ahai  simply barf on the fact that Dany has been called AA already whole Mel asked to see AA in her fires and saw"snow". Something so explicitly stated is clearly misdirection. 

[Isobel Harper]

On 4/19/2016 at 8:14 AM, Jon's Queen Consort said:

What? I find quite silly the part when Elia abandoned her daughter to die alone in order for her to stay with an imposter but this is a completely new level of nonsense.

 

On 4/19/2016 at 8:19 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:

That Elia died protecting the pisswater prince while her daughter was butchered elsewhere certainly supports the conclusion that Gregor killed Rhaegar's son, but it doesn't prove it. For example, the switch might have just been accomplished in that moment. But I think the storyteller gave us that bit to help us realize that Gregor really did murder the son of the man who knighted him. 

We don't know enough details about the event to say that Elia "abandoned" her daughter - in favor of her real son or otherwise.  Keep in mind that Rhaenys was found and murdered under her father's bed.  Rhaenys has her own bedchamber, so it's unlikely she was in her father's chambers at the time of the break in.  That is to say, we know where the Lannisters found her, but we don't where she was located when they managed to break into the Red Keep.  She could have been standing next to her mother most of the time, only to run away at the last minute. 

[The Great and Mighty Poo]

4 hours ago, Trogdor Targaryen said:

I think Jon is more likely to be azor ahai  simply barf on the fact that Dany has been called AA already whole Mel asked to see AA in her fires and saw"snow". Something so explicitly stated is clearly misdirection. 

I'm of the belief that the "The Chosen one" is the red herring. So I don't have a dog in this fight but all she saw was Snow was not explicit. Most readers will never catch it. As snow is what has Stannis trapped at this time. Well at the time of her pov.

[Lord Asher Forrester]

2 hours ago, The Great and Mighty Poo said:

I'm of the belief that the "The Chosen one" is the red herring. So I don't have a dog in this fight but all she saw was Snow was not explicit. Most readers will never catch it. As snow is what has Stannis trapped at this time. Well at the time of her pov.

What lead us to think that it means Jon Snow is that Mel does think i'ts only the wheater, and she sucks at interpration of her own visons and she said herself that the fires don't lie but the interpretations can, so why she would not even think that this vision could have more than one meaning. She don't know it can be symbolic snow? I think she already knows Stannis is not AA since the begining, or why else she would give a false LB to him? She was just using Stannis, for what i don't know, don't seem like she is thinking Jon is AA too, she is a total mistery to me.

But i think we are getting a little off topic here. Sorry people.

[In A Coat of Gold]

On 4/19/2016 at 3:23 PM, Erudain said:

Now in hindsight, knowing how Gregor already killed Aegon and knowing he cannot be recognised, then you can come up with all this scheme and say you switched the babies.
 

Yeah. Varys could find a baby who is the exact same age with the exact same looks?

[Lost Melnibonean]

8 hours ago, Isobel Harper said:

There's also something I caught in AFfC the other day.  I might be reading too much into Areo's wording, but it seems that Areo refers to Mellario as "his princess." 

The white knight. The captain frowned. Ser Arys had come to Dorne to attend his own princess, as Areo Hotah had once come with his.

Norvos is a theocracy.  It doesn't make any sense that Mellario would be a Princess of Norvos. 

He came with Mellario, so she was his, and she married the Prince of Dorne, so she is a princess, his princess.