UK Politics MCMXXXIX: Should I stay or should I go now?

[Werthead]

Confirmed. 25 Sadiq Khans have been fuelled and are ready to fly over and destroy Coventry.

[The BlackBear]

Ah good old claim it was rigged. Today my boss told me the referendum was fixed. Why does anyone believe this stuff? It's laughable to think our overlords are competent enough to rig an election.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Question for the Scots.

If leave wins, with the majority of the Scots backing stay (afterall EU membership was one of the selling points for the better together campaign, and Scotland is more European friendly than England), will there be another independence campaign next year? With a follow up on Scotland rejoining the EU?

 

[HexMachina]

3 hours ago, The BlackBear said:

Ah good old claim it was rigged. Today my boss told me the referendum was fixed. Why does anyone believe this stuff? It's laughable to think our overlords are competent enough to rig an election.

I heard someone bemoaning the fact that the government hid from us all the fact we need to register to vote because they don't want us to vote. Never underestimate the stupidity of the British public 

[The BlackBear]

8 hours ago, Notone said:

Question for the Scots.

If leave wins, with the majority of the Scots backing stay (afterall EU membership was one of the selling points for the better together campaign, and Scotland is more European friendly than England), will there be another independence campaign next year? With a follow up on Scotland rejoining the EU?

I'd say it's very likely, there will be another, next year seems a little short notice, but could well be. And if Leave had won the EURef, Scotland will almost certainly vote LeaveUK. The line used almost immediately after the referendum and regularly since is 'significant and material change,' which gives them a way to get around the once in a lifetime line.

From an article in the Scotsman before the elections:

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The party’s manifesto says the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is “clear and sustained evidence” of majority support for independence, or if there is a “significant and material” change in circumstances, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will.

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She was asked by the Sunday Herald newspaper whether she thought there would be a second referendum within her premiership.

The First Minister replied: “If you’re asking me, do I think it’s more likely than not? Yes.”

 

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-scottish-indyref-2-more-likely-than-not-1-4115937

[Chaircat Meow]

10 hours ago, Notone said:

Question for the Scots.

If leave wins, with the majority of the Scots backing stay (afterall EU membership was one of the selling points for the better together campaign, and Scotland is more European friendly than England), will there be another independence campaign next year? With a follow up on Scotland rejoining the EU?

 

No. They had enough trouble winning when the oil price was good. Now its low, so its kind of a non starter. Also putting Scotland on the other side of EU laws and barriers to the rUK (a far more important trading partner for Scotland than the EU) will not help to win over swing voters worried about the economy. Finally, holding any ref within a couple of years of the UK leaving the EU is just really daft and pointless because no one will know what trade deal the UK will have with the EU and if its really terrible Scotland will be stuck with it if it leaves and trades with the rUK as a foreign country.

[Werthead]

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If leave wins, with the majority of the Scots backing stay (afterall EU membership was one of the selling points for the better together campaign, and Scotland is more European friendly than England), will there be another independence campaign next year? With a follow up on Scotland rejoining the EU?

Yes, 100%. Probably not next year, but certainly within 2-3 years. The government will probably try to convince Scotland to delay such a referendum until the shape of a new deal with the EU and other countries takes shape, but that will probably take 5+ years for all of the deals to be done and the Scots may be unwilling to hang around that long.

Britain will suffer significant economic damage as a result of leaving EU, even the most rabid Brexiters have been forced to admit that, and any free trade deal Britain negotiates with the EU will be on the basis of having to accept free economic movement across borders (like Switzerland and Norway have to). If a Brexited Britain sticks to its guns and refuses this - which they have to, it's a cornerstone of their entire argument - we will have tariffs and prices are going to go up. Scotland in that case will be far more likely to vote for independence and then joining the EU.

[Chaircat Meow]

6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Yes, 100%. Probably not next year, but certainly within 2-3 years. The government will probably try to convince Scotland to delay such a referendum until the shape of a new deal with the EU and other countries takes shape, but that will probably take 5+ years for all of the deals to be done and the Scots may be unwilling to hang around that long.

Britain will suffer significant economic damage as a result of leaving EU, even the most rabid Brexiters have been forced to admit that, and any free trade deal Britain negotiates with the EU will be on the basis of having to accept free economic movement across borders (like Switzerland and Norway have to). If a Brexited Britain sticks to its guns and refuses this - which they have to, it's a cornerstone of their entire argument - we will have tariffs and prices are going to go up. Scotland in that case will be far more likely to vote for independence and then joining the EU.

You do realise that Scotland does far more trade with the rUK than it does with the EU ???

[Werthead]

3 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

You do realise that Scotland does far more trade with the rUK than it does with the EU ???

Yes. But when the British economy starts deterioating as a result of Brexit, that will negatively impact on Scotland, fairly obviously. Scotland may want to avoid that.

[Chaircat Meow]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

Yes. But when the British economy starts deterioating as a result of Brexit, that will negatively impact on Scotland, fairly obviously. Scotland may want to avoid that.

And it will do that by putting itself on the wrong side of trade barriers with its biggest trading partner (as opposed to its second biggest) and losing the subsidy it gets from the rUK? Scots aren't totally stupid you know.

[Werthead]

2 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

And it will do that by putting itself on the wrong side of trade barriers with its biggest trading partner (as opposed to its second biggest) and losing the subsidy it gets from the rUK. Scots aren't totally stupid you know.

Indeed. That's why having free and unfettered access to a market of 500 million people will be more important than having access to a market of 60 million.

[Chaircat Meow]

16 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Indeed. That's why having free and unfettered access to a market of 500 million people will be more important than having access to a market of 60 million.

The UK is Scotland's biggest market (by far). The EU is number two.

In 2014, according to the Scottish Government, Scotland sold £50 bn (not inc oil and gas) to the rUK and imported £62 bn and exported £21 bn to the rest of the world, while importing the same.

 

[The Fallen]

Please forgive my ignorance, but isn't the EU going to collapse when the UK departs? If so, there isn't a 500 million people-strong market.

Also, Meow, what are your feelings on the election of a Brit of Muslim descent as mayor of a London/a major European city?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Why would the EU collapse? It would be a blow, but hardly the start of a domino effect. Not even Ireland is anywhere near wanting to leave the EU, no matter what the Brits do.

And personally I think the UK would suffer more from that divorce than the EU. A very trivial example. The British farmers receive around 3 bil. pounds a year from the EU. A good part of the agriculture industry can't survive without it. That means London actually has to come up with an idea what to do about it. They can hardly let nature (the free market) run its course, that could kill round 90% of the agriculture sector, and land prices would drop significantly. So they can either set up a similar system (the cash would be there, since London is sending around 12 bil. to the EU each year), or they can boost subsidies, that's basically what Switzerland does. But what to do with that sector? Brexit means losing access to a market of 500 mil consumers. The agricultural sector of the EU is overproducing anyway. So I can see how this can become a major headache for London. 

 

[The Fallen]

I didn't realize England produced that much food. It's both interesting and a good problem to have.

But with regard to the EU breaking up, I remember hearing that during the Greek crisis. If Greece left the EU then it would mean the end. And they say it now.

I'm not sure what I would do, but as an American, I don't support TTIP nor TPP. To me these deals are simply vehicles for corporations to exercise more control and exploit workers further. 

I also think that strong and stable countries like England should have no problems combining self-sufficiency and  trade. 

 

[williamjm]

1 hour ago, The Fallen said:

But with regard to the EU breaking up, I remember hearing that during the Greek crisis. If Greece left the EU then it would mean the end. And they say it now.

I think Greece would be more of a problem because it is one of the countries using the Euro, and if countries starting abandoning that then it would bring down confidence in the whole currency as speculation grew over which Southern European country would be the next to leave. Since the UK doesn't use the Euro anyway it's not a problem for the EU in that sense.

I'm not sure what I would do, but as an American, I don't support TTIP nor TPP. To me these deals are simply vehicles for corporations to exercise more control and exploit workers further.

If the UK did leave the EU it might actually be more likely to join TTIP, since the Tories seem (unsurprisingly) more enthusiastic about it than some of the European governments who seem to be threatening to block it.

If leave wins, with the majority of the Scots backing stay (afterall EU membership was one of the selling points for the better together campaign, and Scotland is more European friendly than England), will there be another independence campaign next year? With a follow up on Scotland rejoining the EU?

I think it might be considered a sufficient reason to have a second referendum and although the SNP don't have quite have a majority in the Scottish Parliament now they could probably persuade the Greens to back them. The Westminster Government could refuse to hold a referendum, but that might be counterproductive since it would just increase support for independence.

I'm not sure what the prospects would be of a different result to the first one. I think the first time round the Independence argument was mainly lost over the many uncertainties about the economic impact. In some ways the economic argument has got harder for the SNP to win, with the dramatic fall in North Sea oil revenues, and it would probably be better for an independent Scotland if both it and the rUK were in the EU.

[Werthead]

Quote

 

The UK is Scotland's biggest market (by far). The EU is number two.

In 2014, according to the Scottish Government, Scotland sold £50 bn (not inc oil and gas) to the rUK and imported £62 bn and exported £21 bn to the rest of the world, while importing the same.

 

This is the case whilst Britain remains in a reasonably strong economic position, which it gets whilst in the EU with a growing (if slowing) economy. Outside of the EU, Britain's economic position becomes vastly more questionable. There is also the offset: Scotland remaining in the EU whilst the rest of the UK leaves allows Scottish businesses to pick up the slack and provide services to Europe that will be lost, or tariffed more heavily, if Britain leaves.

Quote

 

Please forgive my ignorance, but isn't the EU going to collapse when the UK departs

 

No. It will, however, be a blow to the confidence of the EU and I suspect would lead to reconsiderations of how the EU will move forwards. I think the dream of a European superstate is effectively dead in the water no matter if Britain stays or leaves, and that needs to be formally acknowledged now. Even French and German public opinion seems to be firmly set against that outcome, so it needs to be acknowledged by the EU that the union will remain as it is now.

18 hours ago, Notone said:

Why would the EU collapse? It would be a blow, but hardly the start of a domino effect. Not even Ireland is anywhere near wanting to leave the EU, no matter what the Brits do.

And personally I think the UK would suffer more from that divorce than the EU. A very trivial example. The British farmers receive around 3 bil. pounds a year from the EU. A good part of the agriculture industry can't survive without it. That means London actually has to come up with an idea what to do about it. They can hardly let nature (the free market) run its course, that could kill round 90% of the agriculture sector, and land prices would drop significantly. So they can either set up a similar system (the cash would be there, since London is sending around 12 bil. to the EU each year), or they can boost subsidies, that's basically what Switzerland does. But what to do with that sector? Brexit means losing access to a market of 500 mil consumers. The agricultural sector of the EU is overproducing anyway. So I can see how this can become a major headache for London.

The cash might be there, but it depends on the post-Brexist trade agreement with the EU that is hammered out. Having a deal like Norways would mean that we would still send c. 90% of what we are paying now to Europe, so we wouldn't save very much that could then be spent on farming. Any other deal might save more money directly but that would be offset by tariffs. So it's a question which has not only not been answered, but Brexiters tend to get very antsy if you bring it up.

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But with regard to the EU breaking up, I remember hearing that during the Greek crisis. If Greece left the EU then it would mean the end. And they say it now.

As William says above, that was more about the Euro than the EU as a whole.

Quote

I also think that strong and stable countries like England should have no problems combining self-sufficiency and  trade. 

One of the reasons the UK is strong and stable is because it is a major player in the EU, with access to its markets and with the EU's backing on major international issues. Without that, Britain would certainly survive but with less influence and with a weaker economy in the short to medium term. There is a different in between being part of a bloc which is both more populous and richer than the United States, and richer than China, and being a single, rather small country by itself whose long-term economic prospects are threatened with being overtaken by countries like India and Brazil within a decade or so, and maybe rather sooner since we will not be able to use much leverage to get good trade deals.

[Chaircat Meow]

43 minutes ago, Werthead said:

This is the case whilst Britain remains in a reasonably strong economic position, which it gets whilst in the EU with a growing (if slowing) economy. Outside of the EU, Britain's economic position becomes vastly more questionable. There is also the offset: Scotland remaining in the EU whilst the rest of the UK leaves allows Scottish businesses to pick up the slack and provide services to Europe that will be lost, or tariffed more heavily, if Britain leaves.

 

Scotland really doesn't want to be on the other side of barriers with its biggest trading partner just to get better access to the EU. You don't put your biggest and most lucrative trading relationship at the mercy of other countries just so you can have more access to a market where you do vastly less trade. 

IMO anyone who thinks the UK leaving the EU makes it a certainty that Scotland will leave the UK does not know what they are talking about. Scottish independence is actually much more marketable to the Scottish people if both the rUK and iScotland are members of the EU. If the rUK is outside the EU then it is more difficult for the SNP to claim that most things would remain the same in an iScotland.

For example, with both iScotland and rUK in the EU free movement is guaranteed. The rUK could have introduced passports checks after independence, and while it wouldn't have done so that provided a scare story that could be used. After a Brexit though we can threaten the nats with having to apply for visas to work in England (again, I doubt this would happen, but referendums are a dirty game yes ??). And far more Scots travel to work in England than in the rest of Europe put together.

edit: the UK isn't a stable country, it nearly fell apart just over 18 months ago.

 

[mormont]

Can we talk about the fact that the Foreign Secretary is apparently unfamiliar with the concept of diplomacy?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36266171

 

[Rorshach]

3 hours ago, mormont said:

Can we talk about the fact that the Foreign Secretary is apparently unfamiliar with the concept of diplomacy?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36266171

 

Is that the correct link? Because what I got is that the PM isn't all that wonderful at this diplomacy thing, but very little about the Foreign Secretary.