The abandonment of lyanna

[WSmith84]

14 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Rhaegar clearly could not force Aerys to send them to DS.

Rhaegar was in charge of the Targaryen forces by this point, including the 10,000 Dornish soldiers. He could have sent Elia and their children to Dorne (after all, no point keeping all your eggs in one basket) but he didn't. After all, he was probably planning to overthrow his father when he returned from the Rebellion. So I can't see any reason why he couldn't send his wife and children to safety, he just didn't. Why, I can't say. Perhaps he didn't want to force the issue with his father, perhaps he himself wasn't so sure of Dornish support, perhaps he wanted to reassure his father that he wasn't plotting against him, perhaps he was so arrogant that he couldn't conceive of losing, perhaps he didn't care, perhaps he thought King's Landing would genuinely be safe etc etc.

[Thersites]

25 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

When Rhaegar left sometime after Aegon's birth, they were safe on Dragonstone. Aerys had them brought to KL or they went to KL of their own volition.

By that time Rhaegar returns to KL, they are held as hostage by Aerys, the king. They were being held hostage against the Dornish and they might have been being held hostage by Aerys against Rhaegar as well.

Rhaegar clearly could not force Aerys to send them to DS.

This. In addition, any measures taken by Rhaegar to ensure that Elia, Aegon and Rhaenys made it out all right regardless of Aerys and the position of his head in relation to his body would most likely result in someone being served a wildfire cocktail. A king's party and a prince's party were already formed and the king, or rather the people able to manipulate his madness to their benefit, had a pretty strong powerbase in King's Landing. Returning at the head of a victorious army would put one in a much better position to solve this particular problem.
It is most probable that he took whatever steps he could, for example ensuring the loyalty of their personal guards, steps that ultimately proved insufficient. Whether or not he was in position to do anything else however, anything involving the kingsguard was not it. Any kingsguard left there would be ordered by Aerys to do something else within five minutes of Rhaegar's departure, and either accept and be unable to protect his family or refuse, be executed and be unable to protect his family.

[WSmith84]

31 minutes ago, Thersites said:

This. In addition, any measures taken by Rhaegar to ensure that Elia, Aegon and Rhaenys made it out all right regardless of Aerys and the position of his head in relation to his body would most likely result in someone being served a wildfire cocktail. A king's party and a prince's party were already formed and the king, or rather the people able to manipulate his madness to their benefit, had a pretty strong powerbase in King's Landing. Returning at the head of a victorious army would put one in a much better position to solve this particular problem.
It is most probable that he took whatever steps he could, for example ensuring the loyalty of their personal guards, steps that ultimately proved insufficient. Whether or not he was in position to do anything else however, anything involving the kingsguard was not it. Any kingsguard left there would be ordered by Aerys to do something else within five minutes of Rhaegar's departure, and either accept and be unable to protect his family or refuse, be executed and be unable to protect his family.

There was only one Kingsguard left in KL when Rhaegar departed: Jaime. And I highly doubt Prince Lewyn Martell would side against Rhaegar if it meant siding against Elia. Rhaegar was in command of the Targaryen war effort and their forces. He was the Silver Prince, riding to save the kingdom from rebellion. And Aerys was a madman who had murdered, exiled and punished those who served him. He certainly didn't have an ally that could stand up to Rhaegar's 40,000 strong army.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

2 hours ago, Bea Noleto said:

Robert wasn't a threat to the Targaryen dynasty until Aerys murdered Rickard and Brandon and asked for Ned's and Robert's heads. He could have figured it out what the hell was happening between Rhaegar and Lyanna and try to make amends. Heck, he could have married Rhaegar with Cersei, betroth Viserys with a Tyrell or a Tully or an Arryn and they would be much more powerful. 

Aerys was the greatest threat to the Targaryens.

Nope, Rhaegar was. It wasn't the first time that the Targaryens fucked up marriage contracts, but it was the first time they did it on that level.

Please remember the Laughing Storm, close personal friend of Egg and all that: Prince Duncan didn't honor his marriage contract, the Laughing Storm went to full-term rebellion, without any allies. Egg was barely able to contain the damage, with a trial by combat Dunk/Lionel, another marriage and Prince Duncan being disinherited.

Fun fact: The Laughing Storm was Robert's great-great-grandfathher - and Robert got solid alliances with the Vale and the North - the second party wronged here, with a history of laying down the law even to the King and a solid alliance with the Riverlands - which was courting an alliance with the Westerlands.

Leaving only the Iron Islands (hah!), the Reach (always divided) and Dorne (which wife did Rhaegar just mortally offend?) as potential allies.

 

And even if the Targs managed to survive the fallout from that, Aegon Martell-Targaryen and Jon Stark-Targaryen will definitely come to blows another 20 to 30 years down the line. Neither the Dance of Dragons nor the Blackfyre Rebellions stemmed from a situation even one quarter as volatile as this one.

 

And it's all on Rhaegar.

[Thersites]

19 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

There was only one Kingsguard left in KL when Rhaegar departed: Jaime.

Of course, and there is a reason for that, which I mentioned above. Aerys keeps Jaime as a hostage. The rest of the kingsguard can go with Rhaegar to the Trident, guard Lyanna and his child at the Tower of Joy, or guard Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon at King's Landing. Having a kingsguard protect someone the king doesn't want protected with said king in the vicinity is about as good an idea as sending Gregor Clegane help someone learn his sums. Therefore having three kingsguard with Lyanna and none with Elia is not proof that he didn't try to keep her safe.

34 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

And I highly doubt Prince Lewyn Martell would side against Rhaegar if it meant siding against Elia. Rhaegar was in command of the Targaryen war effort and their forces. He was the Silver Prince, riding to save the kingdom from rebellion. And Aerys was a madman who had murdered, exiled and punished those who served him. He certainly didn't have an ally that could stand up to Rhaegar's 40,000 strong army.

Of those 40000 men, let's say the Dornish all stand with Rhaegar, although the allegiance of each and every lord is by no means certain. In open war between Rhaegar and Aerys, where do everyone else's loyalties lie? We do know that Aerys murdered, exiled and punished those he thought displeased him. He also showered others with lands, wealth and titles they would not have any chance of getting otherwise. The king's party was at least powerful enough to not be openly challenged by the prince's party, and that was not because of the leadership and abilities of the king.
If all it took for the whole mess to be sorted out was someone saying "Aerys, STFU" and having him escorted somewhere he could not be a danger to himself or others it would have been done years ago.

[Daemon The Black Dragon]

11 minutes ago, Bright Blue Eyes said:

Nope, Rhaegar was. It wasn't the first time that the Targaryens fucked up marriage contracts, but it was the first time they did it on that level.

Please remember the Laughing Storm, close personal friend of Egg and all that: Prince Duncan didn't honor his marriage contract, the Laughing Storm went to full-term rebellion, without any allies. Egg was barely able to contain the damage, with a trial by combat Dunk/Lionel, another marriage and Prince Duncan being disinherited.

Fun fact: The Laughing Storm was Robert's great-great-grandfathher - and Robert got solid alliances with the Vale and the North - the second party wronged here, with a history of laying down the law even to the King and a solid alliance with the Riverlands - which was courting an alliance with the Westerlands.

Leaving only the Iron Islands (hah!), the Reach (always divided) and Dorne (which wife did Rhaegar just mortally offend?) as potential allies.

 

And even if the Targs managed to survive the fallout from that, Aegon Martell-Targaryen and Jon Stark-Targaryen will definitely come to blows another 20 to 30 years down the line. Neither the Dance of Dragons nor the Blackfyre Rebellions stemmed from a situation even one quarter as volatile as this one.

 

And it's all on Rhaegar.

I would say its on both Aerys and Rhaegar. They both did things that on their own  would have been a major threat to the Targ dynasty but, added together was a death blow to the Targ dynasty. 

 

[The Wolves]

2 hours ago, WSmith84 said:

Well, he did leave them in King's Landing with Aerys when he went to the Trident. And at that point I think it's safe to say that Aerys shouldn't have been trusted to organise a piss up in a brewery, let alone be trusted with someone's wife and child. And given the vicious behaviour he had displayed, I'd be fricking terrified of leaving anyone I cared about under his protection.

I don't think it's been clarified 100% that Rhaegar left them in KL. 

[WSmith84]

20 minutes ago, The Wolves said:

I don't think it's been clarified 100% that Rhaegar left them in KL. 

Given that the World Book says that Aerys 'kept' Elia and her children in KL rather than let them return to Dragonstone with Aerys' wife and Viserys (after the Trident), that would suggest that Elia was indeed at KL when Rhaegar left for the Trident. I suppose it is technically possible that he summoned them there in the brief time between Rhaegar leaving and dying on the Trident, but the wording, imo, makes this unlikely.

[purple-eyes]

 

of course they were left in KL. 

elia and two children were summoned to KL by Aerys even before rhaegar moved his ass from his love-nest with lyanna, aka TOJ. 

 

50 minutes ago, The Wolves said:

I don't think it's been clarified 100% that Rhaegar left them in KL. 

 

[purple-eyes]

to be honest, i feel that rhaegar intentionally allowed his father to keep elia and children as hostage because he knows very well that he has to have the army of dorne on his side. 

if he sent elia and children to dragonstone, which he surely had the ability to do at that moment either by public or secret way, then dorne will try to pick up elia and children and withdraw their support, because they are very angry at rhaegar already. 

rhaegar wanted to make use of his wife and children to seal his victory even this will place them in danger. coldblooded? yes. but very effective. 

imho, all rhaegar wanted is to win and kill robert so that he will have lyanna for himself. he is fine that if aerys suddenly burned his wife and two older children because lyanna is strong and young and can bear him many children (he thought so). he probably never thought about that lyanna will not survive first childbirth. 

[redtree]

28 minutes ago, purple-eyes said:

rhaegar wanted to make use of his wife and children to seal his victory even this will place them in danger. coldblooded? yes. but very effective. 

What's worse is that he didn't even put a guard who knows the knowledge of RedKeep's underground tunnel just in case he didn't win (which really happened) or his daddy going crazy (which he already did). He was too freakin dumb or too ignorant and insensitive about Elia and his first 2 children, their lives were essentially in the mercy of a mad men who loved too burn nobles but off course Rhaegar was okay with that
 

Even Aegon 2 who wasn't really bright knew enough about the plan B aka underground tunnel but apparently the
"brilliant and intelligent" Rhaegar did not

[Lady Fishbiscuit]

On 1 June 2016 at 9:40 PM, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Or tried, and succeeded, only the Starks chose not to advertise that fact.

 

 

I wondered if Ned knew about Lyanna's plans but had sworn not to tell (Promise me, Ned...).  If that's the case, no wonder he felt so guilty as that secret led to the deaths of his father, brother and sister and thousands of others in the ensuing rebellion. 

[CJ McLannister]

11 hours ago, redtree said:

What's worse is that he didn't even put a guard who knows the knowledge of RedKeep's underground tunnel just in case he didn't win (which really happened) or his daddy going crazy (which he already did). H

Maybe he did.  Maybe Varys is telling the truth.

[redtree]

2 hours ago, CJ McLannister said:

Maybe he did.  Maybe Varys is telling the truth.

Which one ? You mean fAegon ?

[Ser Leftwich]

14 hours ago, redtree said:

What's worse is that he didn't even put a guard who knows the knowledge of RedKeep's underground tunnel just in case he didn't win (which really happened) or his daddy going crazy (which he already did). He was too freakin dumb or too ignorant and insensitive about Elia and his first 2 children, their lives were essentially in the mercy of a mad men who loved too burn nobles but off course Rhaegar was okay with that
 

Even Aegon 2 who wasn't really bright knew enough about the plan B aka underground tunnel but apparently the
"brilliant and intelligent" Rhaegar did not

Rhaegar could not have left a personal guard for Elia. She was being held as a hostage by his father. For all we know, he was not even allowed to see them while he was KL.

Aerys was the absolute monarch. What he says, goes. There were people who would do whatever Aerys said, just to be in his good graces, no matter how mad he was.

Rhaegar could not just do whatever he wanted.

[redtree]

27 minutes ago, Ser Leftwich said:

Rhaegar could not have left a personal guard for Elia. She was being held as a hostage by his father. For all we know, he was not even allowed to see them while he was KL.

Aerys was the absolute monarch. What he says, goes. There were people who would do whatever Aerys said, just to be in his good graces, no matter how mad he was.

Rhaegar could not just do whatever he wanted.

For all we know your statement might be incorrect because there's no proof that Rhaegar was barred from seeing them. What we know is that Aerys trusted him enough to led 40k army. He didn't have to shout it to his father "hey look, i put guards around Elia". Even if Aerys was that paranoid as you claim to the point he refused guards around Elia in the middle of a castle full of swordsman who were loyal to him, if Rhaegar were any smart he'd keep it quiet, maybe they'd pose as squire or paige or anything really. 

Moving Elia and their children to DS might be difficult because they were Aerys's hostage but putting someone who know the way around the tunnel while keeping her and their children in RK would be an easy task. If he were intelligent and loved his daughter and son whom he left shortly after his birth he'd do anything to ensure their safety. One man is all it takes. He could've done that very very easily but he didn't. I mean come on, he's mentioned repeatedly as an intelligent person, should i lower my standard when i think of him ? Aegon 2 got the sense, hell even Cersei got the brain and secretly moved Tommen out as plan B.

[CJ McLannister]

1 hour ago, redtree said:

Which one ? You mean fAegon ?

Well, yeah.  Not that I believe this is the case, but if Varys really did smuggle Aegon out, then he was doing so on behalf of Rhaegar, even if Rhaegar didn't specifically tell him to do that.

[Curled Finger]

On 6/1/2016 at 4:39 PM, MtnLion said:

It sure looks like they thought that they had a mission that was more important than protecting Viserys.  All three remained, when Ned offers to parlay about a strategic withdrawal to Dragonstone. 

Actually, no.  Ned went from the Trident to King's Landing, in haste.  He arrived just after the Lannisters had been let in to start the sack.  He rode to the throne room, and saw Jaime seated on the Iron Throne.  This is during the brief time during which Jaime considers crowning Aegon or Viserys, and is during the time when the Mountain and Amory were scaling the walls of the Red Keep to kill Aegon, Rhaenys, and Elia.  Soon after, the slain Aegon, Rhaenys and Elia are presented to Robert, wrapped in Lannister crimson to hide the blood (must be fresh).  Robert pardons Jaime for kingslaying and accepts Tywinn's gifts, infuriating Ned.  Jon Arryn manages to prevent the war breaking out between Robert and Ned by sending Ned to finish the remaining battles.  Ned goes to Storm's End and lifts the siege, then he goes to the mountains of Dorne with only some hand picked men, the remainder of the armies logically being sent home and disbanded. 

I stand corrected.  Thank you very much. 

[SpytheUnicorn]

Rhaegar seems to have been a terrible husband; screw him and Lyanna Skank.

[Lady_of_the_black]

It needed to be kept a secret because by the time the toj occurred, kings landing was already sacked. Two innocent targaryan children were murdered to secure the throne. Robert would have slain them all for sure. Lyanna knew this, maybe she insisted it be kept secret. Maybe rhaegar was planning to do just that, before the battle of the trident. Without him, or his father, or any other targaryans, lyanna or Ned couldn't have possibly tried to announce this baby. It would have been seen as an act of treason. So yeah, if the baby is to be kept alive, it's identity must be secret. On a slightly different note, because Ned feels guilty when he thinks about his promise to lyanna, I think that promise was something like.. "promise me Ned. Promise me you will tell this baby who his/her parents were, when it's safe."