Maltaran Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Title chosen since this thread will likely be the active one on the day. Let's start with John Oliver's views on Brexit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Another yougov coming out tonight, along with ORB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slick Mongoose Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 46 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said: Another yougov coming out tonight, along with ORB. You're an addict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Which Tyler Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Where's the CatNep poll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 20, 2016 Share Posted June 20, 2016 Yougov 17-19 June, Leave 44 (+ 1) Remain 42 (- 2) So Leave back in the lead. ORB a bit confusing. They are reporting 51/49 to Remain for all voters, which is a narrowing of the Remain lead (from 53/47). But they give Remain a 7 point lead among those certain to vote, whereas before Leave did much better when only those certain to vote were taken into account last time (49/48 to Leave). So bit of a mixed picture. Again bit of a small sample too (800). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 11 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said: Yougov 17-19 June, Leave 44 (+ 1) Remain 42 (- 2) So Leave back in the lead. ORB a bit confusing. They are reporting 51/49 to Remain for all voters, which is a narrowing of the Remain lead (from 53/47). But they give Remain a 7 point lead among those certain to vote, whereas before Leave did much better when only those certain to vote were taken into account last time (49/48 to Leave). So bit of a mixed picture. Again bit of a small sample too (800). ORB regard their numbers for All Voters as the definitive ones. A month ago, they had Remain leading 58/38, and typically, their All Voters numbers have been among the best for Remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 National Social Centre have run a poll over one month, giving a lead of 53/47 for Remain. But, they say that the numbers were swinging towards Leave at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 20 minutes ago, SeanF said: National Social Centre have run a poll over one month, giving a lead of 53/47 for Remain. But, they say that the numbers were swinging towards Leave at the end. They found that when they selected an online panel the people who couldn't, or wouldn't, respond on line were Leavers. This suggests that if online polls really are slightly biased to Leave, online Leavers have a much greater propensity to share their views online than other people, because Leave also seems to have proportionally more voters who can't or won't do online surveys at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 1 minute ago, Chaircat Meow said: They found that when they selected an online panel the people who couldn't, or wouldn't, respond on line were Leavers. This suggests that if online polls really are slightly biased to Leave, online Leavers have a much greater propensity to share their views online than other people, because Leave also seems to have proportionally more voters who can't or won't do online surveys at all. Their All Voters numbers were 52/48 but they think Remain voters are slightly more likely to vote than Leave voters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I thought this piece by Stephen Fisher was interesting. https://electionsetc.com/2016/06/20/what-is-going-on-in-the-eu-referendum-some-comments-based-on-opinion-poll-evidence/ So NatCen disagree that Leave has a turnout advantage? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said: I thought this piece by Stephen Fisher was interesting. https://electionsetc.com/2016/06/20/what-is-going-on-in-the-eu-referendum-some-comments-based-on-opinion-poll-evidence/ So NatCen disagree that Leave has a turnout advantage? Interesting. Most polls show that Leave supporters are more likely to say they're certain to vote than Remain supporters. However, the NatCen model (ComRes do the same) uses voting patterns from the 2015 general election to estimate likely turnout. Basically, older votes are more likely to vote than younger (which favours Leave) but professional people are more likely to vote than the working classes (which favours Remain). Overall, they think this very slightly favours Remain. The In side in the Scottish referendum had the advantage that both wealthier and older voters sided with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Picking the bones out of the opinion polling methodlogies is fine sport, but when the margins are tight I don't think it has any substantial predictive value. It's of more use in figuring out why polls were wrong than on why they might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Channel4s-JonSnow Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 All I can say is over the past 6 months LEAVE have been very vocal about their opinions and that was my impression that we were almost certainly out, due to public opinion. But it seems to me that the closer we've come to the vote the louder the REMAIN voice has become. This is a matter of my personal perception, but I think the co-ordinated REMAIN campaign has been pretty awful, and hasn't addressed the publics concerns at all, on the other hand I think the groundswell of individuals and social media has done far more to promote the REMAIN message. Theres been a lot of impassioned voices hoping we stay recently, possibly out of panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordsteve666 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I was speaking to someone yesterday who said they'd read a lot of people are swinging to remain because they don't want to face the problems of having to cross the EU border to go on holiday? Sounds like a bizarre thing to base your vote on but i guess for some people they only really think of Europe when they fly off to sunny Spain for holiday and the thought of joining bigger queues and more hassle for being a non-EU citizen is what swinging them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Remain haven't covered themselves in glory, that's for sure. Cameron has gone for hyperbole too readily, the SNP message has got confused because every time they speak someone asks them about a second independence referendum, and Corbyn has been either missing completely or sounded equivocal every time he does speak. (His latest utterances are particularly awful.) I genuinely think he doesn't care one way or the other. And the Lib Dems have been oddly quiet. This was their big issue, after PR. Where are they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, Lordsteve666 said: I was speaking to someone yesterday who said they'd read a lot of people are swinging to remain because they don't want to face the problems of having to cross the EU border to go on holiday? Sounds like a bizarre thing to base your vote on but i guess for some people they only really think of Europe when they fly off to sunny Spain for holiday and the thought of joining bigger queues and more hassle for being a non-EU citizen is what swinging them. The weirdest pro-Remain I've heard comes from those who don't want to leave because of trading barriers and/or currency fluctuations but then turn round and say, 'I really don't like the EU and I hope that the whole thing collapses.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Killer Snark Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 5 minutes ago, Emre Mor-mont said: Remain haven't covered themselves in glory, that's for sure. Cameron has gone for hyperbole too readily, the SNP message has got confused because every time they speak someone asks them about a second independence referendum, and Corbyn has been either missing completely or sounded equivocal every time he does speak. (His latest utterances are particularly awful.) I genuinely think he doesn't care one way or the other. And the Lib Dems have been oddly quiet. This was their big issue, after PR. Where are they? Who are the Lib Dems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordsteve666 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said: The weirdest pro-Remain I've heard comes from those who don't want to leave because of trading barriers and/or currency fluctuations but then turn round and say, 'I really don't like the EU and I hope that the whole thing collapses.' Yeah there's some really odd views coming out, often from people who don't think about what they are saying. I mean up here if we leave then the VAST majority of cleaners/delivery drivers/painter & laborers etc will vanish leaving nobody to do those jobs. But yet a lot of local unemployed people turn their noses up at doing such "menial" tasks and so won't fill those roles. So you've got the people moaning about EU immigrants stealing their jobs who are themselves unwilling to take on the roles these immigrants are filling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 17 minutes ago, Emre Mor-mont said: Corbyn has been either missing completely or sounded equivocal every time he does speak. (His latest utterances are particularly awful.) I genuinely think he doesn't care one way or the other. Corbyn is what you get when you have someone who really wants out of the EU being forced by his party to campaign in support of the EU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 9 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said: Corbyn is what you get when you have someone who really wants out of the EU being forced by his party to campaign in support of the EU. Of course Corbyn wants a Leave vote. He's been opposed to the EU for 40 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.