What the Show tells us about the Northern storyline in the books.

[Stannis is the man....nis]

Man I have been thinking but how crazy would it be if Shireen is burned and HOLD THE DOOR happen around the same time during a first WW attack on the Wall at the end of TWOW?

[Lord Varys]

@sweetsunray

As to the will:

George has actually commented on that and confirmed the reading as is given in the book - that we do not know its contents, actually. And perhaps even the lords affixing their seal do not know the contents. They are implied, of course, but there is no reading in the chapter nor a presentation of the letter to the lords. It might just have been them affixing their seals to it - as Pycelle and Renly affixed their seals to Robert's last will without reading it before.

There might be special clauses under which Sansa can inherit (say, if Tyrion Lannister dies, she herself escapes, or is freed by Robb via treaty or war) and considering that there is no confirmation that Arya is dead it would be stupid to suppose that she is dead or that her death is a given. Even the talk about Bran and Rickon might be ambiguous, say if the letter says something like this 'Since a cruel fate bereft me of my beloved younger brothers Brandon and Rickon Stark...' nobody in his right mind would interpret this as them being disinherited.

Not to mention that one could also argue that Robb's will was irrelevant if Sansa's marriage to Tyrion Lannister was annulled and she became the Lady of the Vale or even a more powerful political figure. The bottom line is that we don't actually know under what conditions Jon can inherit, and there must be a reason for this.

In general I just find the idea that Rickon is there just to die very cheap and unsatisfying. I don't see that happening. The show just killed him for shock value, in my opinion. Just as there was no reason to kill Barristan Selmy and keep Greyworm and Missandei around for stupid eunuch love stories and translator jokes. Nobody is expecting any of that to happen in the books, right?

[Makk]

I'm not sure where it is going. I think the common aspect will just be

-Jon will be resurrected (but maybe not even by Melisandre)

-The Boltons will ultimately be defeated

-Jon will be King in the North (although I'm not even certain about that)

I think Sansa may bring troops from the Vale, I feel her storyline does now point her to the North rather than the south. As she grows she returns to her roots. I have a feeling Stannis may actually take Winterfell but somehow fall shortly after, in which case Jon would also need to win back the Riverlands to have done something in the book. Theon and Asha will obviously not go to Mereen, it's possible Asha will use Theon as a puppet to claim control of what remains on the Iron Islands and will likely side with the North.

The northerners in general will side with Jon much more readily, in fact they may have even been plotting to install him as King in the North for some time, Robb's will will be important. No idea what Rickon will be doing, the Umbers wouldn't betray him though. I don't get a strong feeling about Bran, just a suspicion it will be very different.

And the big wildcard is whether or not the Others will make an appearance. I suspect they will. The book is called the Winds of winter, it would be rather odd if they are absent from the entire thing. 

[sweetsunray]

50 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

In general I just find the idea that Rickon is there just to die very cheap and unsatisfying.

I hope he lives and becomes a King of Winter. That said, in the books he has a point already - getting the Manderlies to get behind Stannis. So, if he dies, it won't necessarily be cheap and unsatisfying... no more than Robb dying. I sure as hell do not believe he dies in a stupid way like they did in the show. That was NOT Rickon. I could try and see the aGoT scene as Robb & Bran don't remain on the WF seat and Rickon takes over the hall and stays. He is in control over a 3-headed direwolf pack (a lot of Cerberus, hellhound of Hades imagery with this... especially a "Lion" being scared by it...aka Hercules with his lion skin) But I don't go by what "I hope" or what "I want" to happen when dealing with possible interpretations of foreshadowing scenes or parallels. And I can't deny the fact that Rickon returns with the wolves in WF hall,but never sits on that seat itself.

ETA: Yeah, I know the will's content is unconfirmed. But really, all the "but Sansa can contest it" is imo illogical. Robb's sentiments regarding a female heir were very clear. Had he actually believed that Arya was alive, he would have disinherited her too, even though she was not married. The whole marriage with Tyrion was not just to exclude the Lannisters from getting it, but ensuring that no house could try to usurp WF and his kingdom via marriage to a Stark daughter. That Robb believed Arya to be dead, might actually be her only chance with regards to Robb's will. No point in barring a girl as his heir if he believes her to be dead. That was not the case with Sansa. How exactly he worded the naming of Jon in his will can have different impact. But there's no way his will leaves a loophole for Sansa.

[lojzelote]

Well, I do believe that Book Jon will become KitN, but a battle with Ramsay and Sansa's involvement are show inventions, IMHO.

The way I see it, Davos will be long in coming back with Rickon (he's certain to have problems with obtaining Rickonsince the Skagosi aren't supposed to be particularly friendly people, and my hunch is we may even witness some Other action), so the Northern lords will go for Plan B that would be Jon. (I love Bran, but a disabled boy who probably can't sire any children isn't exactly suitable for military or dynastic purposes,and they would be aware of that).

Especially if they see that the South is descending into deeper and deeper chaos. Already in ADwD when things in th South were still relatively stable we have Lady Dustin speculating that Roose may be planning on proclaiming himself King in the North. Now with the abrupt rise of the Faith Millitant, Cersei vs the Tyrells, Aegon's invasion, Euron (+Cersei?) vs all, the North may be well of the mind of establishing itself again as an independant kingdom in its pre-Conquest borders. It's not like if anybody in the South would particularly care anyway, and even if they did, they wouldn't be able to invade the North during winter. So the northmen may thank Stannis for helping them to get rid off of the Boltons (and perhaps offer him Dreadfort and the surrounding lands), but they won't be greatly interested in another Southern adventure where they would be forced to fight whoever prevails from among Aegon, Euron, etc. once the spring comes again.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

With this I agree. It's not some door in the cave. It's the Black Gate, with Meera (and Jojen?) and Hodor returning south. He'll send them south to spread word of what he learned. Bran doesn't need to physically go south, since he can use ravens and talk via weirwood trees IRL and in dreams.  Coldhands might still be around to help Meera a leg, sans elk. But imo Benjen is dead and he isn't Coldhands. The show-Benjenhands was simply a merging of the Coldhands stuff of aDwD (leading them to the cave) and aSoS (saving Sam).

Not sure why Jojen and Meera have to go but it seems very likely they will go. Perhaps to help spread the word. I think Bran's powers as a greenseer (and old god, basically) need blood sacrifices to be activated, so somebody has to tell people that they should better begin killing other people in front of the trees. If Bran could make himself understandably known there would be no need for this.

If it is not Theon who will be sacrificed to the weirwood on the isle in the beginning of TWoW (and that seems to be the case) then there is a good chance that Arnolf and his surviving brood will meet their end there - and that could then result in Bran first audibly contacting anyone south of the Wall via the face in a weirwood tree.

I think if Benjen were dead we would know by now. George would have given us a clue. The fact that we didn't get a clue is a hint, I think, that he'll return at a certain point later in the series.

Rickon isn't Robb. He is the baby, the one who might inherit Winterfell in the end, not the one who dies for shock value. He does not need to be a hero or an active protagonist to get a castle, after all.

Bran is going to become a tree and Jon will either rule Westeros with Daenerys in the end or die in the fight against the Others. Arya isn't Lady-material nor should she have any interest in becoming the Lady of Winterfell. That only leaves Sansa or Rickon. And Sansa - well, she might still end up as Tyrion's wife.

And there is also the fact that the show might have killed Rickon because their version of Bran will be getting part of Bran's role in the books (magic toned down, no blood sacrifices, and no omnipresent tree boy thing) and all of Rickon's role. That could explain why he was killed off this way. The show never seemed to have much use for Rickon, anyway.

As to the will:

Robb makes it clear that he sees Sansa as the legal heir to Winterfell after Bran and Rickon's death. He doesn't have anything against a female heir in general, it seems. And whatever content his will has legitimizing a bastard brother who has joined the Night's Watch and putting him ahead of your trueborn sister in your will is a problematic issue even for a king. That clearly is the same territory as Viserys I keeping Rhaenyra as his heir after Alicent gave him trueborn sons, and has the potential of being contested.

After all, Robb is dead. And if there is an alternative to Jon Snow it will be taken. And those loyal Northmen aren't going to prefer Jon Snow to either Bran, Rickon, Sansa, or Arya because they are loyal. Jon Snow doesn't play in the same field and he doesn't want to, really. He even rejected Stannis' offer, after all.

More importantly, King Robb was a very short affair and only those lords who went south with him interacted with him. Lord Wyman, Alysane Mormont, the Cerwyn girl, the Umber uncles, etc. never knew him as their king.

And, again, Howland Reed knows the truth. I could only see this happening in the books if there is a situation in which crowning a King in the North will objectively (that is the eyes of all people involved at this point thinking stuff through) be the better course of action then simply proclaiming a Lord of Winterfell. As I've said earlier somewhere, the only option I see where this could make some sense is if we have Euron as King on the Iron Throne and Dany not yet in Westeros.

There is no reason to antagonize Stannis while he is still alive because of the Others situation, and there is no reason to antagonize the kings in the south (Tommen, Aegon, Dany) for the very same reason. People will be need of food and eventually of help. They will be smart enough to see this.

Nobody in this series should be as stupid as the Greatjon after the first King in the North nearly ruined everything for them. It was stupid even back then and wouldn't have been done had the people known about the Others. Now they do. And hopefully the word about them begins to spread after the Winterfell situation has been dealt with. People have to prepare. If there is still time left as many people as possible should quit villages and farms and hole up in the castles.

[lojzelote]

Eh, the lords of the North have no idea about the Others, they are in the same league as a monster under the bed to them. The worst they're probably expecting of the coming winter is that more of their peasants will die than usual.

Either way, it's unlikely the South would assist the North the way things stand. They will have grave problems with feeding their own people, and the pretenders in the South won't make it their preference winning over the northern hearts since they consider the north a poor backwards land anyway.

As for alternatives to Jon, the thing is, there are none? Assuming Rickon won't return soon (which I don't expect, since his is an ultimately pointless Shaggydog story, heh). Bran should be stuck in the cave at least until the end of winter. Sansa is hiding as Alayne Stone and still very much married to Tyrion Lannister. Jeyne Poole will likely be revealed as fraud or she will disappear to Braavos.

[sweetsunray]

@Lord Varys

It has always been very clear that we deal with "what will happen" in the books very differently. You know it. I know it. I read in the above a lot of "it should be like this or that" without much actual textual back-up, and dismiss too easily a lot of stuff that was included in the books (such as Robb's will, Sansa's marriage to Tyrion at the time, Robb very clearly opining that he as a king cannot allow his kingdom and WF be usurped through marriage) when it inconveniences with what what you think should happen. And we will never see eye to eye in that regard.

As for Rickon = Robb. Tha'ts a strawman. I never said such a thing. I said that Rickon's death (which is likely imo, despite me wanting him to be the baby that gets to inherit WF) does not have to be cheap or pointless, and compared it to Robb's death not being cheap or pointless, certainly not just because you decide it would be cheap or pointless beforehand. To read that as saying that Rickon = Robb is not a fair reading of my words and purposefully obtuse.

Robb = establish the Northern kingdom of North + RL, and a king with a will. That will be imo his plot legacy.

Rickon = return the wolves to WF hall, after their home was taken. How he does that is up to debate. But it's already happening despite him not being physically there, since Manderly plots against Boltons for Rickon. And that's what I'm pointing at. And despite me wishing he'd live a long life and be the Stark of WF, I recognize that Rickon serves the foreshadowed purpose though he's at Skagos and might actually never live long enough to reign from WF. I recognize that his off-page presence and existence for a while and yet get the Wolf banner flying at WF again in his name might be his only plot legacy.

[Ser Biscuit]

JACK with a side of SQUAT.

[WingZero]

The naive readers are easily to spot, theyre the ones that actually think Stannis will lose the Battle of Ice

[Boudica]

The books have taken a long time, and in the meantime people have created their own solutions based on their favorite characters. The show has deviated in many ways, but their beats for the main characters seems intact to a certain degree.

People really want Stannis to win, and people have created many theories as to how it will happen, but Stannis just isn't a main character. I think the Night Lamp theory is sound and Stannis will win that skirmish outside of Winterfell against the Freys.

But that is all he is going to win, he is going to be stuck outside of Winterfell. I think the whole situation will just become even more desperate. He could just stay at Winterfell after initial battle, or he could go back to Castle Black. I think it is likely that he could die around Winterfell due to his stubbornness. Stannis is already there, i dont see him going back. Personally I think it is more likely that Melisandre and Selyse will burn Shireen after the news of the Pink Letter. Selyse might even be remorseful afterwards and kill herself. In the meantime the Wildings and loyal Nights Watch Brothers will take over the Nights Watch. 

Jon will be revived, he was already on his way to attack Ramsay before getting stabbed. I think he will still launch a campaign against the Boltons. A lot of Jon's arc in ADWD have been about bending the rules of the Nights Watch. The old rules simply isn't working anymore. I think Jon will just once and for all decide to screw the rules, the most important message about the Nights Watch has always been about protecting the realms of men.  That is the only vow that Jon will adhere to. He will realize that he needs to take the North in order to have a proper defence against the Others. 

One of the biggest catalysts for the North remains to be the Frey prisoners.  We clearly see Lord Manderly come into action once his heir has been released as a prisoner. The remaining prisoners have been taken from the Freys. It seems like the Brotherhood Without Banners will release those prisoners imminently. Or it may have already happened. This will kick the rest of the North into action, and it cannot be far away. 

Jon will march onto Winterfell with the Wildlings. The conditions in the North is much, much worse then they have been in show. The Wildlings will do well in these conditions. Perhaps the Karstarks under Sigorn and the Thenns will join him. Jon will perhaps meet-up with other Northern Lords and they will take Winterfell back. In the meantime the tension within  Winterfell will be stretched to the limit, no one really trust each other. I wouldn't be completely surprised if Ramsay actually does murder Roose. Or it could be the other way around. I think one of them will kill the other one, and since Roose is concerned with Kinslaying, it seems more likely that Ramsay will kill him. If only Ramsay is left in Winterfell then the other people within Winterfell will plot to kill him. 

And I do think that Jon will become the King in the North, it has been in works for a while now, it seems to be an important plot point in his arc, he needs more authority. Robb's will is there, but even if Rickon is there I think Jon will still become the King in the North. The Northerners also likes to follow strength at times, and Rickon is simply too young. 

I am not sure what Sansa will do, that plot has always been very disconnected from the rest. Sansa might go North eventually. But at the same time she could get kidnapped by Shadrich and end up in Aegon's' court. I could perhaps see the Riverlands declaring for Aegon. As long as Littlefinger is involved with the Vale they will not side with Aegon, Varys wouldn't he allow it, he wouldn't trust Littlefinger. The Vale also have no reason to side with the crown if something were to happen to Tommen. Due to arbitration they may just end up aligning with the North. The Vale could have gone for independence like the North, but their biggest problem is that they don't have a proper King to follow. So they will end up as allies of someone else. 

[Quyen Thuy Tran]

I'm sure Stannis will be dead at some point but not sure when. Jon will leave Nw and become king in the north but without Sansa because there is no Dump and Dumper to try to get Sansa more screen time just because she's fan favorite. However I am sure both Arya and Sansa will eventually come back to the North. 

[The Fattest Leech]

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, the power house thing is really crap. They only defeated Ramsay with the help of the Vale in the show, and there is no reason to assume that they have all that many new troops. And the King of the North story will resolve itself in the books with the marriage of Dany and Jon Snow. Which most likely will take place next season.

The Vale had something to do in the show eventually, and they pitifully stitched their nonsensical Sansa-Littlefinger-Ramsay story together.

If the Vale joins Aegon in the books then this could not possibly happen in a show in which Aegon is cut. Just as in a show where Aegon is cut somebody had to sit on the Iron Throne after Tommen. They show made that person Cersei. That doesn't mean she'll ever become Queen Regnant in the books.

The show drastically reduced the scope and the plots of the books and thus stuff had to recombined differently.

The Northern plot should be spectacularly different. We have a lot of potential for really interesting plots up there:

1. The unresolved stuff at the Wall. Potential for battles and real violence. Potential for further mistrust and backstabbing. The dangling threads of Hardhome, the Weeper's coming attack, the corpses in the ice cells (what if they actually become wights and break out?), Cregan Karstark, and the Alys-Sigorn plot (how much worth is that alliance if Jon Snow is dead?).

2. Rickon on Skagos and whatever is going on in Davos' story.

3. The battles at the lake and at Winterfell and everything connected to that. What's going to happen to Roose/Ramsay, Lord Wyman, Lady Dustin, Stannis, etc.

4. The ultimate fate of Asha and Theon. Not to forget the Iron Bank plot, Massey's mission, and Jeyne Poole's eventual fate.

5. The huge question mark that is Shireen's eventual death, the fate/meaning of Patchface (Melisandre is not afraid of him for no reason!).

6. And most importantly, of course, the Bran mystery. I think Bran will actually remain in that cave but intervene via the weirwoods, the ravens, and through other ways at various points in the story. People might even revive the good old weirwood sacrifices (hello there, Ramsay, who could easily end up being sacrificed to Bran by his new priest and fervent follower, Theon Greyjoy).

It is complete mess to figure out what is going to happen there in comparison to the show. Could Jon Snow become a king of sorts? Perhaps. King in the North? Not very likely in my opinion.

I don't operate under the assumption that Rickon is going to die in the books because that was just a whole stupid plot point to give Jon a version of the Pink Letter scenario.

Jon marching against Ramsay/Roose in any scenario in the books makes not much sense, either. He isn't going to be able to have more men than Stannis already had down there, and the Winterfell issue will be settled in the coming battle. 

@Lord Varys I am pleased, yet confused, yet excited you are here in the show threads.

I just want to say that I agree with what you have here. I kept what I think are the best points about your post

Oh, and a special note about how I cannot wait to find out what the hell is up with Patchface.

[The Arthur Smith]

Regarding Rickon's roles and his relation to the whole "Shaggydog" idea, as his direwolf shared the same name, i believed Davos bringing Rickon back to Winterfell will be entirely pointless as after it happened, Rickon will somehow die there in the book.

[The Fattest Leech]

6 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

With this I agree. It's not some door in the cave. It's the Black Gate, with Meera (and Jojen?) and Hodor returning south. He'll send them south to spread word of what he learned. Bran doesn't need to physically go south, since he can use ravens and talk via weirwood trees IRL and in dreams.  Coldhands might still be around to help Meera a leg, sans elk. But imo Benjen is dead and he isn't Coldhands. The show-Benjenhands was simply a merging of the Coldhands stuff of aDwD (leading them to the cave) and aSoS (saving Sam).

First, nothing, zero, zilch that we see on screen anymore will be the same in the books, except maybe names of some people or places. 

In regards to the door issue, I have to admit that I am a bit nervous that it could be done as simply in the books... someone please tell me I am wrong and why. I noticed this weird description when I first read the book a few years ago, and it has always hung out in my head since. I placed it below.

In regards to Benjen, no way do I think he is Coldhands. First, I think Coldhands is simply a noname, yet loyal, undead warged Raven's Tooth from back in the good old living days of Bloodraven, the LC of the NW. Second, I think it was Uncle Benjen that planted the cache of dragonglass and horn within the black NW cloak in a rush to hide it from either the wildlings or the WW/wigts. The WW's in the Game prologue were looking for Jon Snow even back then, and Benjen looks a lot like a typical Stark and Jon especially. I think this was a second attack from the WW's where they were looking for Jon because they have their own prophecy about survival. It was Ghost (of the old gods) that leads Jon to the cache. *This is a very brief description why.* I'm sure it's all tinfoily crack, however, I am always open to discussing other ideas.

A Dance with Dragons - Bran II

"Is this the only way in?" asked Meera.

"The back door is three leagues north, down a sinkhole." [Coldhands tells Meera and Bran]

That was all he had to say. Not even Hodor could climb down into a sinkhole with Bran heavy on his back, and Jojen could no more walk three leagues than run a thousand.

 

But before that we get this

A Dance with Dragons - Bran I

After they choked down their meagre supper, Meera sat with her back against a wall, sharpening her dagger on a whetstone. Hodor squatted down beside the door, rocking back and forth on his haunches and muttering, "Hodor, hodor, hodor."

[Greg B]

I have no idea what will happen in the books, should one or more eventually be published, but reading some of these elaborate forecasts just reinforces for me how crushing the weight of this project must be for Martin. So many principal characters still scattered all over the world, with so much to do and so far to go before an endgame is in sight, and we're getting a look at old Arianne, Aeron, Selmy chapters. I guess my prediction is that if Winds is published, it will be another split book, like AFFC/ADWD. With what we know he is writing, or has written, I can't see him finding the pages for all the characters he has in play.

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Second, I think it was Uncle Benjen that planted the cache of dragonglass and horn within the black NW cloak in a rush to hide it from either the wildlings or the WW/wigts. The WW's in the Game prologue were looking for Jon Snow even back then, and Benjen looks a lot like a typical Stark and Jon especially. I think this was a second attack from the WW's where they were looking for Jon because they have their own prophecy about survival. It was Ghost (of the old gods) that leads Jon to the cache. *This is a very brief description why.* I'm sure it's all tinfoily crack, however, I am always open to discussing other ideas.

I'm totally with you in this. Others have a prophecy about an LC of the NW with the Stark looks and his special sword that will be their doom. That's why they specifically showed up themselves and approached Royce carefully in the prologue. Only when Royce's sword turned out not to be this dangerous thing, did they all emerge to slaughter him and seemed to laugh about it. But as they wight him they realize they have the wrong guy. They then decide to go for Benjen and learn that his bastard nephew is at the Wall. So they send Benjen's wighted buddies back to the wall, with the order to assassinate the LC (because they think the Stark of Doom of the prophecy is the LC). The brothers cross the wall North and gather at the Fist. Jon Snow being there confirmed by scouts, but there's too many and the Others do not yet know that the NW has forgotten about dragonglass... so they create an army of wights from wildlings traveling to the gathering at the source of the Milkwater and animals (the bear) to attack the Fist, and then hunt the survivors, not knowing yet that Jon isn't even with them anymore. He was traveling through the pass and thus not with the wildlings when they were making hteir wight army, and when he's with the wildlings, they're hunting the survivors of the Fist attack. Meanwhile these pre-emptive strikes actually revealed them and helped to expose and relearn the ways to kill wights and Others, and leads to the events that makes Jon end up being LC.

[Lord Varys]

@The Fattest Leech

We certainly won't get Hodor holding 'the back door'. Considering this whole thing is a cave system rather than an actually building there won't be any doors there hold. Merely openings or entrances. And Hodor is not saying 'Hotrance' or something like that. Not to mention that any setting that would actually have Bran and Meera to flee the cave and out into the snow would have them dead at the hands of the Others minutes later simply because they cannot move fast enough.

The setting of the show is just crap. And going farther north to get out of the cave (three leagues, in fact) would only put them deeper into Others' territory and they would inevitably have to cross wights territory on the way back.

Not to mention that Hodor simply standing in a doorway 'holding the door' would completely ignore the temporal aspect of the whole thing. There is no way and no reason how Bran himself could affect Hodor in the past. He may eventually be capable or reaching through time but the idea that he could skinchange into a person back in time is ridiculous. Nor is there a reason to believe that he would instill a command he gave to Hodor in the present in the past. Not to mention that a Bran experienced with the trees would be able to quickly connect and disconnect with them. He would never be carried around as an unconscious guy again.

And so on.

[Free Northman Reborn]

14 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@Free Northman Reborn

We cannot speculate what is going to happen a year down the line. We can at best speculate in books or chapters. And the fact is that the battles happen now while Sansa has not yet any power.

I hope we are on the same page that no Jon-Ramsay battles take place in the books. That would be a huge waste of time and if Stannis was defeated with all his real and prospective Northmen allies then there is simply no way how Jon could ever defeat Ramsay. Nor wouldn't the be any material for a battle or even a skirmish on Jon's part.

I don't think Sansa will hang out most/all of TWoW doing more or less nothing. I think the Aegon situation will be a catalyst for the Vale plot to get up to speed.

I just don't see the Tully thing happening. That would involve a lot of unrealistic elements like the Riverlords not caring about provoking Aegon with their new secession. Not to mention that it would cut them off from food supplies from the Reach they might be wanting. And you continuously ignore Catelyn Stark, by the way. If Edmure dies, Riverrun belongs to her, and no one else.

I think the Stannis plot will continue. But I actually don't think Dany will 'slay' Stannis in any literal sense. I think the show was true to the character in one way - that the Shireen sacrifice is going to break Stannis. Whatever the scenario in which this happens the man is not going to survive this for long. And that will then be the end of him.

I don't think Stannis will remain at Winterfell after he is has taken it. He'll return to the Wall. And Jon, well, Jon has first to be resurrected and become human again. I don't like the portrayal of 'sulking Jon' at all after his resurrection but I do think that this is, in part, a reflection of what George is going to do with him. He won't come back from the dead whole and empowered. He'll come back more wolf than man and being very pissed that people he trusted killed him. He'll put himself back together but this is going to take time, perhaps even some sort of skinchanger courses with Borroq and stuff, before he can take charge again.

The show gave us a death and resurrection with no meaning at all. Gandalf the Grey came back as Gandalf the Grey, basically.

But George has already told us that he doesn't like Gandalf the White's return, so we can expect Jon to be less than he was before, not more. He might eventually become more but that will actually be part of his journey.

You know my take on the books. The story is going to take more than two volumes to be finished. Jon Snow is not going to be fast-forwarded in some sort of super hero via his resurrection.

Look, I can acknowledge a set up when I see one. Ramsay is clearly being set up to be on the receiving end of some major subterfuge by Stannis. And here I don't just mean the holes in the ice, which will almost certainly lead to the loss of the Frey troops in the Battle of Ice.

I think it is  also telegraphed that Stannis is going to fake his own death during the course of this encounter, and that Ramsay is going to fall for it, using the captured magic sword as proof of Stannis's demise. The Battle is also likely to devolve into a series of bloody skirmishes subsequent to the loss of the Freys, once Ramsay arrives, with Ramsay emerging bloodied, but with the impression that he has defeated Stannis.

What happens hereafter is less clear.

Does Stannis's successful subterfuge also mean that he inevitably captures Winterfell thereafter? (After the Pink Letter is dispatched?)

So much has been made of the crypts that a secret entrance into Winterfell seems an almost certainty at this point. Is this going to be part of Stannis's campaign? Or is it meant to be the ace in the hole of the future Stark army when it picks up where Stannis failed?

I can imagine, for example, Bran directing Shaggydog or Ghost to the entrance of the secret passageway. Alternatively, though less likely to me, is that he will use Theon's sacrifice at the tree to speak to Stannis through the tree and thus give this information to Stannis rather than to one of his Stark kin.

To cut a long post short, I can see that Stannis is being set up to surprise Ramsay in a major way in the coming conflict. What I cannot figure out, is whether this subterfuge will result in a victory at the Battle of Ice only, or whether it will be a long con of sufficient impact to give Stannis Winterfell itself.

And if Stannis gets Winterfell, well what then? Because if Davos returns with Rickon, and the rest of the North then falls in line behind Stannis, he is actually in a very strong position, with thousands of troops and the entire North behind him. And this before Massey returns with his 20k sellswords from Braavos.

The burning of Shirreen by Stannis - which I admit would be a powerful fulfilment of Stannis's character arc and one which Martin would no doubt love to include - then becomes uneccessary. And it throws the return of the Starks storyline into complete disarray.

So I guess we can agree that Stannis is the major fly in the ointment for the Stark restoration plotline. And that his victory over the Boltons, capture of Winterfell and continued prominence shifts the Starks to a lesser role by default. Something which I find difficult to reconcile with the direction of the narrative. Unless the story continues for much longer than one would have thought, and that the Stark return is meant to be delayed until Dream of Spring, when Daenerys also arrives in Westeros.

Interesting and thought provoking stuff.

[illinifan]

We know that the two things from the Northern story happen in the books - Princess Shireen is burned at the stake and Hold the Door.  Those are canon.  I also suspect that the fates of the characters are what we think they are - Jon is revived by Mel and becomes KitN, Sansa and Littlefinger end up in the North, Stannis ends up dead, and Rickon ends up defeated.  Also, perhaps people are putting too much thought into the Pink Letter and Stannis' fate.  Perhaps it is actually played straight.  I could see a scenario where Stannis loses, but Theon, Asha, and fakeArya! escape and Mel and Selyse burn Shireen at the stake out of desperation between that and Jon's death.  

As for Jon, his arc is literally breaking every single line in the NW vow.  Yes, he is increasingly using contortions and loopholes to justify doing so but he really is breaking the spirit of the law.  I doubt that the NW vow meant you get a "get out of jail free" card after being resurrected by a priestess with fire magic.  I certainly hope that this is pointed out in the books and pointed out in the show.  (Only Edd called him out on it.)