The COTF Master Plan: Part 1

[Lord Lyman]

18 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

The bolded part is incorrect. The dagger was Robert's.

Unless you are saying Robert won it from LF, do we have this in the text?

I think Tyrion mentions this. There would have been no way for him to win the dagger as he would never of backed anybody going against Jamie. Robert on the other hand was a man who would've like to have seen Jamie lose and I believe did make a bet with Littlefinger. I don't know where but it's somewhere in AGOT.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 hour ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

The bolded part is incorrect. The dagger was Robert's.

Unless you are saying Robert won it from LF, do we have this in the text?

What are you talking about? Yes it was Robert's dagger won from LF, that's the part of the text that is very clear. LF lied and said Tyrion won it but the only one who bets against Jaime is Robert, so Robert actually won it. That whole thing. And then LF throws the dagger like a bad ass to prove it's his...

[WSmith84]

51 minutes ago, Lord Lyman said:

I think Tyrion mentions this. There would have been no way for him to win the dagger as he would never of backed anybody going against Jamie. Robert on the other hand was a man who would've like to have seen Jamie lose and I believe did make a bet with Littlefinger. I don't know where but it's somewhere in AGOT.

Jaime says this:

Quote

"Tyrion always backed me in the lists," Jaime said, "but that day Ser Loras unhorsed me. A mischance, I took the boy too lightly, but no matter. Whatever my brother wagered, he lost . . . but that dagger did change hands, I recall it now. Robert showed it to me that night at the feast. His Grace loved to salt my wounds, especially when drunk. And when was he not drunk?"

Jaime doesn't say that it's Littlefinger that lost it. There's no link to Littlefinger at all, apart from his claim.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

2 minutes ago, WSmith84 said:

Jaime says this:

Jaime doesn't say that it's Littlefinger that lost it. There's no link to Littlefinger at all, apart from his claim.

Correct. But we can trust his claim because of his bad ass dagger throwing skills. And the fact that he is already lying about Tyrion winning it. It would be weird if he was also lying about the dagger even being his and wouldn't make much sense.

[GyantSpyder]

Serious question: How does Jaime know specifically what the dagger used by the Catspaw looks like, so that he can confirm it is indeed the dagger he saw Robert brag about? At this point it has already passed from Cat to Ned to Littlefinger. Tyrion saw the dagger and confirmed it wasn't his, but did Jaime ever actually see the dagger?

It's Valyrian steel and plain dragonbone, unadorned. Those materials are both rare, but doesn't Robert have like a hundred Valyrian steel daggers he never used? And this one has no jewels in it or distinguishing marks?

How does drunk Jaime know it's the same knife? I'm assuming I'm missing something, because it seems pretty clear to people that the knife is Robert's, but I don't know what I'm missing that would back that up.

[WSmith84]

5 minutes ago, GyantSpyder said:

Serious question: How does Jaime know specifically what the dagger used by the Catspaw looks like, so that he can confirm it is indeed the dagger he saw Robert brag about? At this point it has already passed from Cat to Ned to Littlefinger. Tyrion saw the dagger and confirmed it wasn't his, but did Jaime ever actually see the dagger?

It's Valyrian steel and plain dragonbone, unadorned. Those materials are both rare, but doesn't Robert have like a hundred Valyrian steel daggers he never used? And this one has no jewels in it or distinguishing marks?

How does drunk Jaime know it's the same knife? I'm assuming I'm missing something, because it seems pretty clear to people that the knife is Robert's, but I don't know what I'm missing that would back that up.

Valyrian steel daggers are not that common. Robert certainly wouldn't have dozens, let alone hundreds, of those floating around. He certainly has a bunch of knives (gifts from people looking to curry favour who don't know Robert very well) but people don't just give away Valyrian steel. Plus Cat describes it for him.

[Seams]

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Correct. But we can trust his claim because of his bad ass dagger throwing skills. And the fact that he is already lying about Tyrion winning it. It would be weird if he was also lying about the dagger even being his and wouldn't make much sense.

There are several references to Littlefinger as being a juggler. Most of them are figurative - he tells Catelyn and Ned at the brothel that he holds Varys' balls in his hands - if he had balls - and I think Tyrion refers to LF's ability to juggle the account numbers for the kingdom. While this knife scene may be the only literal juggling by LF that we witness, I don't think it means that the knife necessarily belonged to him. I think the point for the reader is that he is able to juggle anything.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

2 hours ago, Seams said:

There are several references to Littlefinger as being a juggler. Most of them are figurative - he tells Catelyn and Ned at the brothel that he holds Varys' balls in his hands - if he had balls - and I think Tyrion refers to LF's ability to juggle the account numbers for the kingdom. While this knife scene may be the only literal juggling by LF that we witness, I don't think it means that the knife necessarily belonged to him. I think the point for the reader is that he is able to juggle anything.

I'm sorry, but no. The point is pretty clearly to show it is actually his dagger. Here is the exact quote:

"I would have told you that there was only one knife like this at King's Landing." He grasped the blade between thumb and forefinger, drew it back over his shoulder, and threw it across the room with a practiced flick of his wrist. It struck the door and buried itself deep in the oak, quivering. "It's mine."

The fact that LF can successfully throw the dagger perfectly 1st try like a bad ass shows that he has thrown that particular dagger before. I don't know if you have ever tried throwing an actual throwing knife and making the pointy end hit the target but it's fucking hard.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I'm sorry, but no. The point is pretty clearly to show it is actually his dagger. Here is the exact quote:

"I would have told you that there was only one knife like this at King's Landing." He grasped the blade between thumb and forefinger, drew it back over his shoulder, and threw it across the room with a practiced flick of his wrist. It struck the door and buried itself deep in the oak, quivering. "It's mine."

The fact that LF can successfully throw the dagger perfectly 1st try like a bad ass shows that he has thrown that particular dagger before. I don't know if you have ever tried throwing an actual throwing knife and making the pointy end hit the target but it's fucking hard.

This only proves that LF is good at throwing daggers. There is no evidence in the text that LF owned the dagger before Robert. Yes, he could have, but so could have a lot of other people. 

[Gertrude]

1 hour ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

The fact that LF can successfully throw the dagger perfectly 1st try like a bad ass shows that he has thrown that particular dagger before. I don't know if you have ever tried throwing an actual throwing knife and making the pointy end hit the target but it's fucking hard.

Actually, it's not that hard if you know the basics. I have done some dagger and axe throwing before. Sure, it's easier if you're familiar with the knife, but I only take it as evidence that Petyr has thrown a few daggers in his life, not as evidence that this one was his.

I'm mixing up books and show now, but doesn't he only say it's his once Varys says he doesn't know who it belonged to? Sure, Petyr could have been wary of a trap from Varys, but he could also gamble and seize his opportunity to strengthen Cat's suspicion of the Lannisters by lying.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

1 hour ago, Gertrude said:

Actually, it's not that hard if you know the basics. I have done some dagger and axe throwing before. Sure, it's easier if you're familiar with the knife, but I only take it as evidence that Petyr has thrown a few daggers in his life, not as evidence that this one was his.

I'm mixing up books and show now, but doesn't he only say it's his once Varys says he doesn't know who it belonged to? Sure, Petyr could have been wary of a trap from Varys, but he could also gamble and seize his opportunity to strengthen Cat's suspicion of the Lannisters by lying.

Isn't it awfully convenient for LF's plan that Cat came to KL and gave him that "opportunity"? (It's totally part of the COTF Master Plan...)

 

2 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

This only proves that LF is good at throwing daggers. There is no evidence in the text that LF owned the dagger before Robert. Yes, he could have, but so could have a lot of other people. 

Your standard of evidence seems super fucking high. The main evidence is that Jaime remembers the dagger changing hands and doesn't question that it was LF's, and LF throws the dagger with a "practiced" flick of his wrist, and LF says it was his. I don't know how much god damn evidence you demand to consider it probable that LF owned the dagger like he claimed, but that certainly is not "no evidence". That is... arguably 3 pieces of evidence right there if you're counting (I just did).

 

If you guys want more proof that it is LF's dagger than it is going to be pretty hopeless to convince you of any of my theories. GRRM can't just spoon feed us exposition (like many TV shows). That's not even the part that should be debated. It is clearly LF's dagger in my opinion. I think the points you guys made are valid, but I just think your perspective on how GRRM is writing this story (and leaving us clues) is off. But of course, that's speaking from my perspective, so it's not really much of an argument.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

39 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Isn't it awfully convenient for LF's plan that Cat came to KL and gave him that "opportunity"? (It's totally part of the COTF Master Plan...)

 

Your standard of evidence seems super fucking high. The main evidence is that Jaime remembers the dagger changing hands and doesn't question that it was LF's, and LF throws the dagger with a "practiced" flick of his wrist, and LF says it was his. I don't know how much god damn evidence you demand to consider it probable that LF owned the dagger like he claimed, but that certainly is not "no evidence". That is... arguably 3 pieces of evidence right there if you're counting (I just did).

 

If you guys want more proof that it is LF's dagger than it is going to be pretty hopeless to convince you of any of my theories. GRRM can't just spoon feed us exposition (like many TV shows). That's not even the part that should be debated. It is clearly LF's dagger in my opinion. I think the points you guys made are valid, but I just think your perspective on how GRRM is writing this story (and leaving us clues) is off. But of course, that's speaking from my perspective, so it's not really much of an argument.

LF also said Tyrion won the dagger from him so I think we can agree that LF is willing to lie in regards to the dagger.

Jaime knows nothing of who had the dagger before Robert. He acknowledges that it changed hands to Robert during the tourney, that's it.

When you say, "Jaime doesn't question it was LF's dagger..."  This is not part of the talk with Cat. Jaime says he knows the dagger from when Robert had it, that is all. How would he know who had it before? 

But, I will acknowledge it is possible that the dagger was LF's (not trying to say you need this acknowledgement). So let's just move on theorizing that it was.

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

59 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

Isn't it awfully convenient for LF's plan that Cat came to KL and gave him that "opportunity"? (It's totally part of the COTF Master Plan...)

 

Your standard of evidence seems super fucking high. The main evidence is that Jaime remembers the dagger changing hands and doesn't question that it was LF's, and LF throws the dagger with a "practiced" flick of his wrist, and LF says it was his. I don't know how much god damn evidence you demand to consider it probable that LF owned the dagger like he claimed, but that certainly is not "no evidence". That is... arguably 3 pieces of evidence right there if you're counting (I just did).

 

If you guys want more proof that it is LF's dagger than it is going to be pretty hopeless to convince you of any of my theories. GRRM can't just spoon feed us exposition (like many TV shows). That's not even the part that should be debated. It is clearly LF's dagger in my opinion. I think the points you guys made are valid, but I just think your perspective on how GRRM is writing this story (and leaving us clues) is off. But of course, that's speaking from my perspective, so it's not really much of an argument.

Please don't presume that my interpretation of the text is "off" because I disagree with the way you interpret it 

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

@40 Thousand Skeletons

Upon further examination. I now think the dagger was LF's. 

From Jaime and Cat's talk we know the dagger changed hands to Robert. Jaime doesn't know from who though.

Rewind to the Hand's tourney:

Quote

“A hundred golden dragons on the Kingslayer,” Littlefinger announced loudly as Jaime Lannister entered the lists, riding an elegant blood bay destrier. The horse wore a blanket of gilded ringmail, and Jaime glittered from head to heel. Even his lance was fashioned from the golden wood of the Summer Isles.

“Done,” Lord Renly shouted back. “The Hound has a hungry look about him this morning.”

LF makes a bet with a Baratheon that Jaime will win. Jaime loses. LF loses a bet to a Baratheon because Jaime lost. 

GRRM is giving us something here. The dagger did go from LF to Robert because Jaime lost, just as 100 dragons goes from LF to Renly because Jaime loses.

But then again my perspective on how GRRM is writing this story (and leaving us clues) is off. So I could be wrong.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Ah. So the COTF are needed to explain apparent coincidences. If it looks like a coincidence, it isn't, in fact COTF did it. Because.

I, as usual, have a competing theory. All those astonishing "coincidences", the dagger, Cat running into Tyrion, Penny running into Tyrion, Jorah running into Tyrion, Arya running into the Hound and into Lord Edric Dayne of Starfall, Samwell running into Bran and Arya, and so on and so forth, could be explained away by the existence of some old fat dude who does those things to move the plot forward, or in some cases just for fun. If my theory is correct, then he lives somewhere in New Mexico, USA.

Although there actually is some solid evidence to prove his existence, so it's not nearly as fun.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

2 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Ah. So the COTF are needed to explain apparent coincidences. If it looks like a coincidence, it isn't, in fact COTF did it. Because.

I, as usual, have a competing theory. All those astonishing "coincidences", the dagger, Cat running into Tyrion, Penny running into Tyrion, Jorah running into Tyrion, Arya running into the Hound and into Lord Edric Dayne of Starfall, Samwell running into Bran and Arya, and so on and so forth, could be explained away by the existence of some old fat dude who does those things to move the plot forward, or in some cases just for fun. If my theory is correct, then he lives somewhere in New Mexico, USA.

Although there actually is some solid evidence to prove his existence, so it's not nearly as fun.

I'm not saying every coincidence needs to be explained by the COTF. But I do think any coincidence that has a large impact on the plot should be reexamined, like Cat running into Tyrion, or Sam showing up at exactly the right moment to let Bran through the wall. Something like Arya running into Sam is probably explained by your theory.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

7 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Please don't presume that my interpretation of the text is "off" because I disagree with the way you interpret it 

I'm not presuming, it's my opinion, and I fully admitted that is not a valid argument against your points.

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

3 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Ah. So the COTF are needed to explain apparent coincidences. If it looks like a coincidence, it isn't, in fact COTF did it. Because.

I, as usual, have a competing theory. All those astonishing "coincidences", the dagger, Cat running into Tyrion, Penny running into Tyrion, Jorah running into Tyrion, Arya running into the Hound and into Lord Edric Dayne of Starfall, Samwell running into Bran and Arya, and so on and so forth, could be explained away by the existence of some old fat dude who does those things to move the plot forward, or in some cases just for fun. If my theory is correct, then he lives somewhere in New Mexico, USA.

Although there actually is some solid evidence to prove his existence, so it's not nearly as fun.

This theory cracks so many pots it could be the main character in a Zelda-game! Where's the evidence for it?! Show me the passages in the books, not the show or some other non-canon source, that led you to this conclusion!

[Red Man Racey]

On ‎10‎/‎23‎/‎2016 at 8:22 PM, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

It was not meant to be sarcastic. My evidence is essentially, other than what I said in the OP, that the COTF are puppet masters controlling many aspects of the story, and they are super focused on Bran. But beyond Bran, I think they manipulated Mance Rayder and Tormund, BR, LF, the Hightowers, Rhaegar, and others. So doing a tiny little thing like a fake assassination is just part of a huge ridiculous complicated plot to achieve an end game of survival via dominance over humans. But I've only posted part 1.

Again, my main piece of evidence so far for the assassination attempt is the Valyrian steel dagger. I think my theory is a better explanation for the dagger than any other I have heard, but you are free to disagree with my opinion there. I think the assassin was mentally challenged and manipulated by dreams sent by the COTF.

We actually have very strong evidence that he was paid to kill Bran. That seems a much more likely motivation than the COTF, unless Leaf came south of the Wall with a bag full of silver stags.

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

18 minutes ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I'm not saying every coincidence needs to be explained by the COTF. But I do think any coincidence that has a large impact on the plot should be reexamined, like Cat running into Tyrion, or Sam showing up at exactly the right moment to let Bran through the wall. Something like Arya running into Sam is probably explained by your theory.

With Sam, we are almost certain at least BR is involved, since CH brought Sam to the Wall. Cat running into Tyrion just makes sense since one is going north and the other south on the Kingsroad. That it happens then and there is just to move the story forward. Or would you say that Marillion, who played a role in Tyrion recognizing Cat, was also being warged by BR or something?