Why was Jaime kept on as a kingsguard?

[Jaak]

17 hours ago, Lord Fauntleroy said:

Jaime himself seemed to be completely disillusioned with the whole thing and probably just wanted to be able to fuck his sister so he stayed around.

No such prospect.

Stannis was under siege and unconsulted. Meaning that Lyanna was missing, presumed kidnapped by Rhaegaer and to be recovered and married to Robert.

No one involved, neither Jon, Robert, Eddard, Tywin nor Jaime had a clue Robert would not marry Lyanna, or might marry Cersei.

[Whitering]

21 hours ago, Zoo_Dane said:

Tywin wouldn't allow Jamie to be sent to the Wall or executed. Robert needed the lannisters (i.e. Why he married Cersei) to cement his rule so I doubt he would start his reign but killing his new queens brother and his strongest allies heir. 

There also was no precedent for releasing a KG from their vows (Barristan was the first) so maybe they didn't see that as an option? Death/Wall or remain KG? Remaining KG was the only way to ensure Robert would stay on the throne. 

Robert also hated Tywin and would not want him to have his heir back regardless, so not even trying to release Jaime fit his own mood, personality and needs just fine.

[Laughing Storm Reborn]

more than having jaime as a "hostage", having him as KG would give CR to Tommen... tywin wouldn´t have more children, tyrion was a no no, so joff gets the IT and tommen CR since SE and DS were given to bob's siblings...

of course, a plan made not counting the incest...

if it's true, then jon arryn was truly littlefinger's master

[Danelle]

16 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I see where you are coming from, and we can't rule out that this was the case. But, especially with Jon Arryn being the brains behind the move, I lean toward at least his line of thinking being more about keeping one of the most valuable things to Tywin under their power as insurance.

I agree that keeping Jaime in the Kingsguard goes over with Tywin much better than sending him to the Wall or executing him would have, but I suspect Tywin had hoped he could persuade Robert (and the Faith) to release Jaime from his KG vows (and I suspect he had hoped prior to the war that he could do the same with Rhaegar).

I agree that once again Jaime was used a pawn in the game between the IT and CR.

 

Regarding Tywin's attempt to release Jaime from his vows, I think that it is highly possible that this was his intention from the moment that Aerys made Jaime a KG knight at Harrenhal.

If we look back at the last conversation that Jaime had with Rhaegar, the words of the Prince may be a hint towards his policy regarding the Lannisters.

 

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"Then guard the king," Ser Jon Darry snapped at him. "When you donned that cloak, you promised to obey."

Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime's shoulder. "When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but . . . well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."

Note that the conversation takes place when Jaime complains about staying behind while his sworn brothers are at war. Darry reminds him of his duty but Rhaegar vaguely implies that as soon as the war is over, things will change. It is likely that he intended not only to dethrone Aerys but also to ensure Tywin's support by giving Jaime back to him and even arranging a betrothal between Cersei and Viserys. Let us not forget that it was only after Rhaegar's return at the Red Keep, when Aerys was finally convinced to send a raven asking for Tywin's help. 

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But Tywin can't really openly complain, because on the surface Jaime was kept from facing any consequences for his crime, and was permitted to remain in his post as if nothing happened. And Tywin can't really blame Robert and Jon for Jaime being in the KG in the first place, because Aerys is the one who made Jaime KG.

 

I agree. Tywin can't openly complain, just like he did not openly complain when Aerys Targaryen constantly humiliated him over the course of his reign. To be fair, there are three times when Tywin expressed his indignation in regards to the manner Aerys treated him:

1. He resigned from his post as Hand, when Aerys insulted Joanna, in front of the court. But of course his resignation was not accepted. 
2. He resigned again when Jaime joined the KG and this time his resignation was accepted. Nevertheless it is notable that none of his successors was successful.
3. And the third and final time that Tywin expressed his indignation, the incident became known as the Sack of King's Landing and the most famous victims were Elia and her children.

I agree that Tywin could not blame Robert and Jon for what Aerys did and I think that given the complicated situation Jon did his best to maintain a fragile balance. This doesn't mean that Jon or Robert for that matter, fully trusted Tywin. Robert loved to point out that Tywin did not participate in the battles, although considering his approoval over the murders of Rhaegar's children, I think that Robert was partly grateful that Tywin did the dirty work for him. 

 

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Robert and Jon could claim that they do not have the power or precedent to release Jaime from his vows, and that this was as favorable-to-Jaime a compromise between what Tywin and Ned would have preferred as could be arranged.

But I don't think keeping Jaime in a post which Aerys had assigned him to against Tywin's will, in order to deprive Tywin of his only beloved son and heir, and to keep that son and heir as a hostage, is something Tywin would have been happy about, or that it was intended to appease him.

 

I think that Jon was treading on thin ice. Robert, Ned and Jon all had legitimate reasons to turn against the Targaryens. Tywin came to Robert's cause, late but he did. Jaime killing Aerys 

1. Had nothing to do with the war, since Jaime did not care about who was going to sit on the IT but instead all he wanted to do was to stop Aerys from burning the city
2. it was not an act of a rebel killing a King, but it was an act of a KG knight murdering his King

Certainly Tywin was not happy about Jaime remaining a KG knight, but he should have been grateful that his son was allowed to live and remain in KG. I think that if Jon Arryn had suggested that Jaime should be released from his vows, Robert would not have protested. I think that Jon Arryn could have made Tywin's dream come true but he chose not to, in an attempt to show him who is the boss. He spared Jaime's life and allowed Tywin to know that Jaime can still hold one of the most prestigious posts in the kingdoms, but at the same time he did not gave him back his heir. 

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I think he was faced with the bitter reality that helping replace the king who had taken his son from him had failed to restore his son to him. The new king and regime only enforced the decree which had caused Tywin to resign and remove his support from Aerys in the first place.

 

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"We all dream of things we cannot have. Tywin dreamed that his son would be a great knight, that his daughter would be a queen. He dreamed they would be so strong and brave and beautiful that no one would ever laugh at them."

 

[devilish]

On 02/11/2016 at 11:45 PM, theblackdragonI said:

As a member of the Kingsguard he killed his king, an unforgivable crime. But why was he kept on in the KG? 

We know that Ned and I'm sure much more wanted him dismissed/forced to the watch/executed.

But if Robert pardoned him to appease the Lannisters, why didn't he dismiss him from the KG? Why didn't Tywin push for this?

Was keeping him in the KG meant as a punishment? Because that seems like a real corrupt and stupid punishment as he was a permanent stain on the order and we know that at least Barristan wasn't fond of him in the order. 

Robert knew that Tywin hated the imp and would do anything within his power not to allow him to become heir to CR. With Jamie out of the way, the King was hoping that Tywin would appoint his son, Tommen, to be his heir. With the boy as the Lord Paramount of the Westerlands, Robert knew that his grip on power would be stronger and that he could spend more then ever

[Bael's Bastard]

4 hours ago, Danelle said:

I agree that once again Jaime was used a pawn in the game between the IT and CR.

 

Regarding Tywin's attempt to release Jaime from his vows, I think that it is highly possible that this was his intention from the moment that Aerys made Jaime a KG knight at Harrenhal.

If we look back at the last conversation that Jaime had with Rhaegar, the words of the Prince may be a hint towards his policy regarding the Lannisters.

 

Note that the conversation takes place when Jaime complains about staying behind while his sworn brothers are at war. Darry reminds him of his duty but Rhaegar vaguely implies that as soon as the war is over, things will change. It is likely that he intended not only to dethrone Aerys but also to ensure Tywin's support by giving Jaime back to him and even arranging a betrothal between Cersei and Viserys. Let us not forget that it was only after Rhaegar's return at the Red Keep, when Aerys was finally convinced to send a raven asking for Tywin's help. 

I agree. Tywin can't openly complain, just like he did not openly complain when Aerys Targaryen constantly humiliated him over the course of his reign. To be fair, there are three times when Tywin expressed his indignation in regards to the manner Aerys treated him:

1. He resigned from his post as Hand, when Aerys insulted Joanna, in front of the court. But of course his resignation was not accepted. 
2. He resigned again when Jaime joined the KG and this time his resignation was accepted. Nevertheless it is notable that none of his successors was successful.
3. And the third and final time that Tywin expressed his indignation, the incident became known as the Sack of King's Landing and the most famous victims were Elia and her children.

I agree that Tywin could not blame Robert and Jon for what Aerys did and I think that given the complicated situation Jon did his best to maintain a fragile balance. This doesn't mean that Jon or Robert for that matter, fully trusted Tywin. Robert loved to point out that Tywin did not participate in the battles, although considering his approoval over the murders of Rhaegar's children, I think that Robert was partly grateful that Tywin did the dirty work for him. 

 

I think that Jon was treading on thin ice. Robert, Ned and Jon all had legitimate reasons to turn against the Targaryens. Tywin came to Robert's cause, late but he did. Jaime killing Aerys 

1. Had nothing to do with the war, since Jaime did not care about who was going to sit on the IT but instead all he wanted to do was to stop Aerys from burning the city
2. it was not an act of a rebel killing a King, but it was an act of a KG knight murdering his King

Certainly Tywin was not happy about Jaime remaining a KG knight, but he should have been grateful that his son was allowed to live and remain in KG. I think that if Jon Arryn had suggested that Jaime should be released from his vows, Robert would not have protested. I think that Jon Arryn could have made Tywin's dream come true but he chose not to, in an attempt to show him who is the boss. He spared Jaime's life and allowed Tywin to know that Jaime can still hold one of the most prestigious posts in the kingdoms, but at the same time he did not gave him back his heir. 

 

I completely agree! My thinking is very much along the lines of what you've described here, especially your interpretation of the implications of Rhaegar's comments to Jaime before heading off to the Trident. Though Jaime brings up the possibility that Tywin was waiting for Elia to die after he brought Cersei to court, he also indicates that he believes Tywin might have been willing to settle for a marriage to Viserys. But there may be an explanation for this.

When Tywin promised Cersei that she would marry Rhaegar, he told her to never speak of it until Aerys agrees to the betrothal, and that it must remain their secret for now. It then indicates that it had remained secret, and goes into a story about her lying to Jaime when he found a picture she'd drawn of herself flying behind Rhaegar on a dragon. So it may be that Jaime wasn't completely aware that Tywin might have had a one-track-mind when it came to Rhaegar and to Cersei becoming his queen.

I also find it interesting that Rhaegar was the one who persuaded Aerys to send the raven to Tywin when he returned from the south after the Battle of the Bells. I have often wondered if Rhaegar and Tywin did not already have an agreement or at least an outline prior to the Harrenhal tourney being set up. Perhaps their plans went to hell after that, and he intended to make another attempt at it with Tywin after returning from the south.

[theblackdragonI]

22 hours ago, Laughing Storm Reborn said:

more than having jaime as a "hostage", having him as KG would give CR to Tommen... tywin wouldn´t have more children, tyrion was a no no, so joff gets the IT and tommen CR since SE and DS were given to bob's siblings...

of course, a plan made not counting the incest...

if it's true, then jon arryn was truly littlefinger's master

I think Kevan was always Tywin's heir if Jaime was not released from his vows. Not 100% sure.

14 hours ago, devilish said:

Robert knew that Tywin hated the imp and would do anything within his power not to allow him to become heir to CR. With Jamie out of the way, the King was hoping that Tywin would appoint his son, Tommen, to be his heir. With the boy as the Lord Paramount of the Westerlands, Robert knew that his grip on power would be stronger and that he could spend more then ever

Interesting idea. Do you think that was Jon's idea? Also, maybe Tywin naming Kevan his heir was to counter this? Which I get because there's still going to be a Lannister to inherit. Only thing that might rule this out is that at the time of this Robert was still technically betrothed to Lyanna I'd imagine. Guess it depends on whether Robert waited for Ned to return to decide the punishments/rewards after taking the crown.

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

Ill add a factor I haven't seen mentioned. Robert made Jamie his bitch over and over which I think implied that Robert Knew/Thought he could kick Jamie's ass. (Worst case) Then it would be Jamie attacking another King he had oaths sworn to

[Jaak]

23 hours ago, Danelle said:

Jaime killing Aerys 

1. Had nothing to do with the war, since Jaime did not care about who was going to sit on the IT but instead all he wanted to do was to stop Aerys from burning the city
2. it was not an act of a rebel killing a King, but it was an act of a KG knight murdering his King

It was not unprecedented.

There had been 3 previous Targaryen kings who died in suspicious circumstances while at losing end of a rebellion:

Aenys fell ill and died while a fugitive on Dragonstone. His stepmother who treated his illness was suspected of poisoning;

Maegor died on Iron Throne while some lords had risen in rebellion and some of his family and Kingsguard had defected. Suspects included Kingsguard.

Aegon II died while the combined armies of Riverlands, Vale and North were approaching King´s Landing. Poison was suspected - suspects included at least one Kingsguard (ser Gyles).

[desire]

Because he was granted a pardon?

[devilish]

On 05/11/2016 at 0:40 AM, theblackdragonI said:

I think Kevan was always Tywin's heir if Jaime was not released from his vows. Not 100% sure.

Interesting idea. Do you think that was Jon's idea? Also, maybe Tywin naming Kevan his heir was to counter this? Which I get because there's still going to be a Lannister to inherit. Only thing that might rule this out is that at the time of this Robert was still technically betrothed to Lyanna I'd imagine. Guess it depends on whether Robert waited for Ned to return to decide the punishments/rewards after taking the crown.

[devilish]

On 05/11/2016 at 0:40 AM, theblackdragonI said:

I think Kevan was always Tywin's heir if Jaime was not released from his vows. Not 100% sure.

Interesting idea. Do you think that was Jon's idea? Also, maybe Tywin naming Kevan his heir was to counter this? Which I get because there's still going to be a Lannister to inherit. Only thing that might rule this out is that at the time of this Robert was still technically betrothed to Lyanna I'd imagine. Guess it depends on whether Robert waited for Ned to return to decide the punishments/rewards after taking the crown.

As we've already seen after Robert's death, a dead man's wish is barely relevant to the living. Kevan has a rather weak claim to CR. If the old man dies then Robert could push for his wife's claim. Her claim would be backed by Jamie whose both KG and Cersei's twin. Will Kevan go to war against an entire kingdom because of Tywin's wishes? Will Tywin's former bannermen go against the king and Tywin's children to protect their Lord Paramount?I doubt it.

Things would be different if Tywin appointed Tyrion as heir as the rule of the land  would have applied. Jamie is KG, Cersei is a woman therefore he's got less say then the males so Tyrion inherit the lot. However the rule of the land is quite clear. Daughter's inheritance > uncle inheritance. 

[Danelle]

On 4/11/2016 at 4:18 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

I completely agree! My thinking is very much along the lines of what you've described here, especially your interpretation of the implications of Rhaegar's comments to Jaime before heading off to the Trident. Though Jaime brings up the possibility that Tywin was waiting for Elia to die after he brought Cersei to court, he also indicates that he believes Tywin might have been willing to settle for a marriage to Viserys. But there may be an explanation for this.

 

Exactly. Viserys was considered a likely husband for Cersei, and their child could marry one of Rhaegar's children, strengthening even further the bonds between Targaryens and L

 

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When Tywin promised Cersei that she would marry Rhaegar, he told her to never speak of it until Aerys agrees to the betrothal, and that it must remain their secret for now. It then indicates that it had remained secret, and goes into a story about her lying to Jaime when he found a picture she'd drawn of herself flying behind Rhaegar on a dragon. So it may be that Jaime wasn't completely aware that Tywin might have had a one-track-mind when it came to Rhaegar and to Cersei becoming his queen.

 

Not only that, but I find it fascinating that both Jaime and Joanna were unaware of Tywin's plans. The betrothal between the Lannisters and Martells was arranged after she discovered the incest. It is noteworthy that Joanna, who was known to have influence over the King, did not arrange a betrothal between her daughter and Rhaegar. 

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I also find it interesting that Rhaegar was the one who persuaded Aerys to send the raven to Tywin when he returned from the south after the Battle of the Bells. I have often wondered if Rhaegar and Tywin did not already have an agreement or at least an outline prior to the Harrenhal tourney being set up. Perhaps their plans went to hell after that, and he intended to make another attempt at it with Tywin after returning from the south.

Interesting indeed.

We really don't know how Rhaegar felt about the Lannisters or anyone else for that matter.

All we can tell with certainty is that:

• He was loved by lords and smallfolk alike, but had a few friends, including Arthur Dayne, Myles Mooton and Richard Lonmouth. Jon Con and Barristan Selmy admired him but they were not part of his inner circle of friends. 
• He had plans but so far the only person (excluding his friends) that was vaguely aware of those plans, was Jaime Lannister(from what we know so far). Varys suspected that he intended to depose his father.
• Did not consider Robert's Rebellion a serious threat, at least not until it was too late. 

Him persuading Aerys to call Tywin for help, is quite revealing.

Rhaegar was probably aware of the complicated (to say the least) relationship between Aerys-Rhaella-Tywin-Joanna. It is likely that he did not trust Tywin, perhaps he was even wary of his intentions. We really don't exactly what happenned between Tywin and Aerys the first time he resigned (my guess is that Joanna intervened) but it should be noted that Tywin resigned as soon as Jaime joined the KG. Rhaegar's reaction to the resignation of his father's closest advisor is not known to us. What we know is that soon after Tywin left the court, the tensions between the King and the Prince rose. We know that Aerys gradually became more and more paranoid, distruful not only of Tywin but of Rhaella and Rhaegar as well.

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Chief amongst the Mad King's supporters were three lords of his small council: Qarlton Chelsted, master of coin, Lucerys Velaryon, master of ships, and Symond Staunton, master of laws. The eunuch Varys, master of whisperers, and Wisdom Rossart, grand master of the Guild of Alchemists, also enjoyed the king's trust. Prince Rhaegar's support came from the younger men at court, including Lord Jon Connington, Ser Myles Mooton of Maidenpool, and Ser Richard Lonmouth. The Dornishmen who had come to court with the Princess Elia were in the prince's confidence as well, particularly Prince Lewyn Martell, Elia's uncle and a Sworn Brother of the Kingsguard. But the most formidable of all Rhaegar's friends and allies in King's Landing was surely Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning.

To Grand Maester Pycelle and Lord Owen Merryweather, the King's Hand, fell the unenviable task of keeping peace between these factions, even as their rivalry grew ever more venomous. In a letter to the Citadel, Pycelle wrote that the divisions within the Red Keep reminded him uncomfortably of the situation before the Dance of the Dragons a century before, when the enmity between Queen Alicent and Princess Rhaenyra had split the realm in two, to grievous cost. A similarly bloody conflict might await the Seven Kingdoms once again, he warned, unless some accord could be reached that would satisfy both Prince Rhaegar's supporters and the king's.

Had any whiff of proof come into their hands to show that Prince Rhaegar was conspiring against his father, King Aerys's loyalists would most certainly have used it to bring about the prince's downfall. Indeed, certain of the king's men had even gone so far as to suggest that Aerys should disinherit his "disloyal" son, and name his younger brother heir to the Iron Throne in his stead. Prince Viserys was but seven years of age, and his eventual ascension would certainly mean a regency, wherein they themselves would rule as regents.

 

Tywin's departure marked the beginning of the end for Aerys' reign.

We know that Rhaegar was fighting a secret war against his father, and most importantly we know that Tywin (along with the vast majority of the realm) regarded him as a more efficient monarch than his father:

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Most of the small council were with the Hand outside Duskendale at this juncture, and several of them argued against Lord Tywin's plan on the grounds that such an attack would almost certainly goad Lord Darklyn into putting King Aerys to death. "He may or he may not," Tywin Lannister reportedly replied, "but if he does, we have a better king right here." Whereupon he raised a hand to indicate Prince Rhaegar.

Scholars have debated ever since as to Lord Tywin's intent. Did he believe Lord Darklyn would back down? Or was he, in truth, willing, and perhaps even eager, to see Aerys die so that Prince Rhaegar might take the Iron Throne?

 

And Tywin was not the only man to consider Rhaegar more suitable for the IT:

 

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If he had not gone into Duskendale to rescue Aerys from Lord Darklyn's dungeons, the king might well have died there as Tywin Lannister sacked the town. Then Prince Rhaegar would have ascended the Iron Throne, mayhaps to heal the realm. Duskendale had been his finest hour, yet the memory tasted bitter on his tongue.

 

Despite the fact that Tywin obviously aprooved Rhaegar, the prince had never directly regarded him as an ally, not until he urged Aerys to seek his aid.

 

Considering all that, I think that Rhaegar was cautious with Tywin, partly because he knew that he was a difficult man and partly because he did not want Aerys to suspect an alliance between them. A Targaryen husband for Cersei and releasing Jaime from his vows was definitely part of what Rhaegar intended to offer Tywin. 

 

[Fire and Fury]

On 11/2/2016 at 7:45 PM, theblackdragonI said:

As a member of the Kingsguard he killed his king, an unforgivable crime. But why was he kept on in the KG? 

We know that Ned and I'm sure much more wanted him dismissed/forced to the watch/executed.

But if Robert pardoned him to appease the Lannisters, why didn't he dismiss him from the KG? Why didn't Tywin push for this?

I always felt that one of the main reasons Robert kept Jaime as Kingsguard was to boast about his prowess as a warrior and a conqueror. Jaime was widely feared for his skill in battle and publicly reviled as the Kingslayer, and Robert's visible comfort in such a dangerous man's company was a display of power on his part. If one should fear the Kingslayer, how much more frightening is the individual who isn't shaken by such a person?

Robert and Jon Arryn may have felt that keeping Jaime close and in service to the crown was a way to consolidate power and keep Tywin's ambitions somewhat in check politically by depriving him of a strong heir to Casterly Rock, while keeping the river of gold and silver flowing towards Robert's royal expenditures. By not actually punishing Jaime with execution or banishment, they would be bringing no dishonor to House Lannister, giving Tywin no cause for retaliation. As it was stated about Ned after his imprisonment, "a tame wolf is more use than a dead one," and I suspect Robert and Jon Arryn felt the same was true about the Lannister lion. Keeping Jaime alive and at his post eliminates the possibility of civil war in the west fracturing their new kingdom.

Also, I'm sure Cersei was all too eager to keep her twin/lover near herself and her children, while Jaime was equally willing to stay by her side. Against the King and Queen's word, Tywin could indeed push for Jaime's release but not without the Throne pushing back.

 

[Jaak]

4 hours ago, Fire and Fury said:

Also, I'm sure Cersei was all too eager to keep her twin/lover near herself and her children, while Jaime was equally willing to stay by her side. Against the King and Queen's word, Tywin could indeed push for Jaime's release but not without the Throne pushing back.

Reminding again - when Robert and Jon decided to keep Jaime in Kingsguard, there was no Queen, and Lyanna was going to become that.

How was surviving Queen Lyanna going to get along with Kingslayer?

[Fire and Fury]

2 hours ago, Jaak said:

How was surviving Queen Lyanna going to get along with Kingslayer?

Well, the Kingslayer murdered the guy that ordered the death of Lyanna's father and brother. Perhaps Jon Arryn felt they may have either gotten along well enough or would at least ignore each other peacefully, remaining adamant that the Lannisters had displayed loyalty to Robert's cause with their actions at the end of the rebellion.

In any case, I doubt Jon Arryn would have placed Lyanna's feelings above his own priority of keeping the realm in one piece. Jon was a character who achieved a high amount of success during his office as Hand of the King, ensuring peace throughout the realm for many years. However, he was also married to Lysa Arryn for those same seventeen years, right up until she killed him for ignoring how she felt about being separated from her son. Jon Arryn may have had a firm grasp on matters of military and politics, but concern for and understanding of the women closest to him seems to have not always been his strongest suit. If he can shrug off his own wife's unhappiness for nearly two decades, I wouldn't be shocked to learn there were other instances in his history of him not fully considering how his political decisions might affect one woman or another on a personal level.

[Tini]

On ‎03‎.‎11‎.‎2016 at 6:58 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

It doesn't seem like execution was ever seriously considered. Even Ned urged that Jaime be sent to the Wall. And while I imagine Tywin preferred Jaime remaining in the KG over being sent to the Wall, in either case Tywin would be deprived of his heir and Jaime would never have legitimate children. It is to Robert and Jon that Jaime remaining in the KG is most beneficial. Having Jaime in KL with them as a KG keeps him under their power in a way that sending him to the Wall does not. I'm not sure to what extent Robert considered this, but I do think Jon had this in mind when he argued against Ned's idea of sending Jaime to the Wall.

Cersei ultimately set the new precedent for KG, but I suspect Tywin previously had hopes and perhaps even plots to see Jaime released. There may not have been a precedent for releasing KG at the time, but the KG are not the only order in Westeros with vows. The World Book says an effort was made by those who hated Egg to determine whether Aemon could be released from his maester vows. Even earlier, in AGOT, we were told that the High Septon himself had offered to absolve Aemon from his maester vows so he could become king. Whether Rhaegar or Robert actually would have released him, I think Tywin hoped to get Jaime released from his vows.

Ned saw the Wall different than Robert and Jon did. For him joining the Night's Watch was honorable and just as lasting as King's Guard's vows. And far away from Westerosi politics. The Southerners saw the Wall and the Night's Watch differently. And while they thought it obsolete, they knew it was an army - an army they didn't control (and had no influence over), led by knights and nobles sent there as punishment. If sent to the Wall, Jaime would've risen in the ranks fast. And there is a very good chance that he would've become the next Commander of the Night's Watch. Robert and Jon would've seen that as a threat.

Still, we don't see Tywin plot for Jaime's release. Not after Cersei married Robert, and he moved back to Casterly Rock. We see Lannister influence extending, Tywin's anger at Jaime's career choice, but no attempt at changing fate. This only starts when Cersei's actions give him hope again. And after Joffrey's death. 

Tywin hated the idea that Tyrion would inherit Casterly Rock. Yet he made no attempts to change that.

Some people say Tywin was doing everything in his power to replace Tyrion - he didn't. If he had, he would have remarried and tried for additional sons himself. He expected his children to provide him with heirs. So maybe he really thought Jaime would return some day.

The line of succession for Casterly Rock looked like this:

1. Jaime - disqualified by King's Guard vows
2. Tyrion - disqualified in Tywin's eyes by, well, by being Tyrion
3. Joffrey - disqualified for being king of Westeros
4. Tommen
5. Cersei - disqualified, as far as Tywin was concerned, for being a woman
6. Myrcella - another woman

I think Tywin had made up his mind, and settled for little Tommen as his heir. Then Joffrey died, and Tommen became king in Joffrey's place. Which left Tywin without a proper male heir - except for Tyrion. And Jaime still refused to leave the KG. That's when Tywin went after Tyrion, got Tyrion convicted of Joffrey's murder - and officially removed from the line of succession. That, in turn, made Cersei heir to Casterly Rock - and Tywin planned another marriage for Cersei as well as the marriage for Myrcella. Another marriage, and a chance for additional heirs.

Tywin certainly would've preferred if Jaime had quit the KG, and agreed to raise Tommen as befits a proper Lannister. In addition to starting a family of his own.

[Jaak]

2 hours ago, Tini said:

Tywin hated the idea that Tyrion would inherit Casterly Rock. Yet he made no attempts to change that.

Some people say Tywin was doing everything in his power to replace Tyrion - he didn't. If he had, he would have remarried and tried for additional sons himself. He expected his children to provide him with heirs. So maybe he really thought Jaime would return some day.

The line of succession for Casterly Rock looked like this:

Not officially.

The official line was as follows:

Tywin - the incumbent

Jaime - disqualified as Kingsguard

1) Tyrion - not formally acknowledged, but also not publicly disinherited

Any lawful issue of Tyrion (none existed, depending on arrangements of Tywin)

Any future lawful sons of Tywin - an eligible widow

2) Cersei - formally eligible

3) Joffrey and his issue

4) Tommen and his issue

Any future lawful sons of Cersei, by Robert or any subsequent lawful husband

5) Myrcella and her issue

Any future lawful daughters of Cersei

Any future lawful daughters of Tywin

6) Kevan.

...

[Tini]

On ‎08‎.‎11‎.‎2016 at 7:51 PM, Jaak said:

Not officially.

The official line was as follows:

Tywin - the incumbent

Jaime - disqualified as Kingsguard

1) Tyrion - not formally acknowledged, but also not publicly disinherited

Any lawful issue of Tyrion (none existed, depending on arrangements of Tywin)

Any future lawful sons of Tywin - an eligible widow

2) Cersei - formally eligible

3) Joffrey and his issue

4) Tommen and his issue

Any future lawful sons of Cersei, by Robert or any subsequent lawful husband

5) Myrcella and her issue

Any future lawful daughters of Cersei

Any future lawful daughters of Tywin

6) Kevan.

...

I left out not yet existing issue. And of course Kevan would show up in the line of succession - but not as a member of Tywin's direct line, which Tywin was so obsessed with. Tyrion was Tywin's legitimate son, therefore formally acknowledged. Tywin had no intention to remarry - he arranged marriages for his kin, but no one could force him to marry. And he didn't. Even though that might have solved his succession issues.

I am aware that Cersei is ahead of her children by the Westerosi standard rules of succession. But the Dornish follow a different set of rules, and so did House Targaryen. By Targaryen rules women were excluded from succession to the iron Throne, in favor of their male relatives. Tywin never struck me as someone who considered Cersei anything else than a broodmare. Myrcella, too, was just someone he could sell into marriage for the profit of House Lannister-Baratheon. I think Tywin intended to bypass Cersei in the succession, as he intended to bypass Tyrion. He just didn't get around to it anymore.

We have seen that House Martell was willing to adjust/adjusted its line of succession in those instances where the heir (or heiress) married royalty. We have also seen the Dornish belief that Myrcella would be Lady of Casterly Rock one day, not Tommen. They wanted to switch succession around according to Dornish rules: make Tommen's older sibling queen on the Iron Throne, while Tommen would become Lord of Casterly Rock. That is why I exclude Joffrey (and his children) from the Casterly Rock succession.

Tywin did not want his line to merge completely with the royal house. He did not want Casterly Rock to become a crown property. He wanted a Lannister heir. Joffrey was heir to the Iron Throne, a Baratheon for good. And his children would be Baratheon, too. Tywin would only have considered him (or them) if there were absolutely no other choice.

Which leaves Tommen (at least until Joffrey died without issue). That is why I think Tywin intended to name him the heir eventually. When he finally got around to officially disinheriting Tyrion.

But he only got around to that when Tommen was king. And Tywin never named an heir which is why Cersei inherited Casterly Rock.

[Jaak]

2 hours ago, Tini said:

We have also seen the Dornish belief that Myrcella would be Lady of Casterly Rock one day, not Tommen. They wanted to switch succession around according to Dornish rules: make Tommen's older sibling queen on the Iron Throne, while Tommen would become Lord of Casterly Rock. That is why I exclude Joffrey (and his children) from the Casterly Rock succession.

Tywin did not want his line to merge completely with the royal house. He did not want Casterly Rock to become a crown property. He wanted a Lannister heir. Joffrey was heir to the Iron Throne, a Baratheon for good. And his children would be Baratheon, too. Tywin would only have considered him (or them) if there were absolutely no other choice.

Robert did not make Stormlands a crown property either. He gave away Storm´s End to Renly for good - Renly could have married and left Stormlands to his children, while Robert wasn´t keeping it for his future second sons.

Dornish held such a belief after Tommen was King. They thus held an expectation that King Tommen would not hold to an additional lordship inherited from his mother, but give it away to a suitable family member, like Myrcella, like Robert had done.