NFL 2016 Week 13: Bigger, Stronger, Faster to IR

[Tywin et al.]

3 minutes ago, Joe Pesci said:

The Bills have shit canned Rex Ryan, along with his brother too.

Not Yumbo!!!!

[Joe Pesci]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Not Yumbo!!!!

Stock shares in chicken wings in the Buffalo area have already dropped 25%...

[dbunting]

Just a quick pulse of the board. Who do you think are legitimate SB contenders? Not just to get there but actually can see them winning it without a bunch of shithouse luck. For me it's the following, in no particular order:

Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh, New York Giants, KC

If any of those teams was to win it I would be like, yep, not a surprise.

Green Bay, Seattle are close but just seem a little off

The rest would need everything to line perfectly, IMO.

 

[dbunting]

7 minutes ago, Joe Pesci said:

The Bills have shit canned Rex Ryan, along with his brother too.

I don't understand why you would do this. It's too late in the season to make any real difference. At this point just ride out the storm and fire him after the last game. Now you risk a one game wonder, a staffer taking over for the last game and Buffalo looking great. Now you only have a one game sample size and you may create a fan favorite who isn't the best candidate. To me this was just stupid, unless there was a conflict in person that required you to remove him from the team because he was causing issues.

[Jaime L]

On 12/23/2016 at 7:27 AM, Tywin et al. said:

Brady and Cousins are master dink-and-dunkers, so that stat is meaningless.

Actually FO looked into this very subject this week. Kirk Cousins is the 3rd best passer on medium throws and 2nd best on bombs (i.e. throws that travel more than 25 yards in the air). And Tom Brady is the best in the league on medium and deep throws. 

 

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

1 hour ago, Rockroi said:

I don't disagree with any of this.  

I do think that the team most likely to defeat the Pats would be the Steelers.  They have all the prerequisites - good head coach, defense that can put pressure on a QB (though they need to blitz to do it), and a stud QB.  Even at 80%, Big Ben can do what it takes to beat a Pats team struggling on O.  I do give the Pats an edge because of home field, the extra week of rest, better QB and head coach, and having the better offense.  

KC though is, in many ways, a scarier team.  For starters they have the traditional package that beats Brady in the playoffs: a tough, physical D that can put pressure on the QB with just 4 pass rushers.  That has been Brady's historical Achilles heal.  The Chiefs also have a great head coach and a difficult to deal with TE (Pats, traditionally, have difficulty with dynamic TEs).  If there is one area where the Pats MAY have some separation its Smith at QB: he has been, generally, underwhelming at the position.  However, the Pats have lost to worse QBs in the past.  Joe Flacco in 2009 was mediocre at best and in 2010 the Pats lost to Mark Sanchez. MARK SANCHEZ!  And not to throw shade on a man's grave but last season the Pats lost to Peyton Manning and Manning was... uh... pretty fucking horrible.  

So you don't need a great QB to beat the Pats.  You just need one who won't fuck it all up.  And Smith is that kind of QB.

I still think that generally everything favors the Pats.  I would love it to see Oakland lose next week and NOT just for home field: if Oakland losses and KC wins, that means that KC goes to the #2 slot and that assures that the Pats will ONLY need to face ONE of either the Steelers or Chiefs.  

And the way the Pats luck has been ... I would think that is in the cards.  

The Chiefs have all the tools to beat the Pats, but on the other hand, Andy Reid v Bill Belichick.

If the Chiefs do beat the Pats, I hope they win the Superbowl. Any Reid is a good coach and his players love him. He's gotten too much shit for being a consistent top 10 coach throughout his career and I hope he wins at least one before he retires.

For him to not win it all after beating Belichick would be like Peyton Manning losing against Rex Grossman and the Bears after finally beating the Pats in the AFCCG or for Team USA to lose to Sweden after beating Russia in the Miracle on Ice.

[Tywin et al.]

11 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Actually FO looked into this very subject this week. Kirk Cousins is the 3rd best passer on medium throws and 2nd best on bombs (i.e. throws that travel more than 25 yards in the air). And Tom Brady is the best in the league on medium and deep throws. 

 

These are lies made up by our enemies, Jaime. 

[Joe Pesci]

20 minutes ago, dbunting said:

I don't understand why you would do this. It's too late in the season to make any real difference. At this point just ride out the storm and fire him after the last game. Now you risk a one game wonder, a staffer taking over for the last game and Buffalo looking great. Now you only have a one game sample size and you may create a fan favorite who isn't the best candidate. To me this was just stupid, unless there was a conflict in person that required you to remove him from the team because he was causing issues.

I want to guess that this is them giving Anthony Lynn a chance to showcase himself for the job. His name has been bounced about some openings, so if they like what they see, he may get a shot. Like you said though, they may create a one-game wonder this way. I haven't seen anything but it's a safe bet that the same thing is happening in Jacksonville at the moment with Doug Marrone getting two games at the helm and already  running roughshod over the Titans in his first game.

[Jaime L]

18 minutes ago, dbunting said:

I don't understand why you would do this. It's too late in the season to make any real difference. At this point just ride out the storm and fire him after the last game. Now you risk a one game wonder, a staffer taking over for the last game and Buffalo looking great. Now you only have a one game sample size and you may create a fan favorite who isn't the best candidate. To me this was just stupid, unless there was a conflict in person that required you to remove him from the team because he was causing issues.

And for all the seeming turmoil, Rex Ryan was 15-16 as Bills coach which despite not making the playoffs I have to guess is the best record a Bills coach has had since Marv Levy. 

The thing is though he (and supposedly his brother, if you're drunk) have made their names by being defensive masterminds and yet in both years the Bills have been a bottom 10 defensive team and in particular godawful against the run. In the two years before Ryan got there, this was a top 5 defense. So where's his value add?

The one thing this team does really well is offense, particularly the running game, which you have to credit OC Anthony Lynn for. Hell if they didn't have such a good running game I could see the defense being even worse. I get why they'd want to give Lynn a chance though not sure the point of making that happen with one game left. 

I expect Bills nation to be drunker than usual for week 17. 

[Maithanet]

Jaime, are you with me in hoping Gus Bradley is the Redskins next DCoordinator?  He worked with McCloughan in Seattle, and his record as a defensive coordinator was stellar. 

[Michael Seswatha Jordan]

Question. Talking with the ol' man last night. He hates the Patriots (who dont) who can compete with them to get out of the AFC? My money is on the Steelers, dad is thinking the Chiefs have that right balance to screw with the Pats. While i agree, I said dad, dad calm down. Andy Reid does not win the Big games. Scratch the Chiefs.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

10 hours ago, Rockroi said:

 Then the Jets QBs took over while I was playing Monopoly with the family.  That's how shitty the game became- I actively sought out members of my family to play a game that has no definitive ending ... just like the 49'ers season.  

 No definitive ending? How about arguably the worst season in almost 4 decades ('79?). And I'd say this one is actually worse, as it is the 2nd season of what should've been a rebuild that apparently hasn't even fucking started Is that definitive enough for ya?  

[Jaime L]

15 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Jaime, are you with me in hoping Gus Bradley is the Redskins next DCoordinator?  He worked with McCloughan in Seattle, and his record as a defensive coordinator was stellar. 

Yeah, absolutely. My take is anyone but Joe Barry at this point. And maybe Bradley has some Rod Marinelli "godawful head coach, great DC" mojo about him. 

My concern though is if the Skins make the playoffs, Barry keeps his job. After all he just showed the immortal Matt Barkley what's up. And he'll point to the Skins having spent less of their cap on defense than anyone except ATL and NO. It still doesn't mean he doesn't suck at what he does.

[Maithanet]

9 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Yeah, absolutely. My take is anyone but Joe Barry at this point. And maybe Bradley has some Rod Marinelli "godawful head coach, great DC" mojo about him. 

My concern though is if the Skins make the playoffs, Barry keeps his job. After all he just showed the immortal Matt Barkley what's up. And he'll point to the Skins having spent less of their cap on defense than anyone except ATL and NO. It still doesn't mean he doesn't suck at what he does.

I don't think the Redskins are likely to come out of this season thinking the defense performed acceptably.  So many times this year we relied on our offense to play defense and score another touchdown.  Making the playoffs won't change that.  Not to mention that the schemes just straight up don't work.  If guys were in the right position but just failing to make plays, then maybe I could understand it, but miscommunications and confusion (particularly at safety) are common on this team. 

Bradley's track record prior to joining the Jags was solid.  He took over a below average Seattle defense and turned it into a top 10 unit, primarily by developing the young players they drafted.  Now, maybe he just got lucky in getting handed all that defensive talent (the Seahawks didn't exactly drop off when he left), but still, he did it once.  Who knows if draft picks like Thomas and Chancellor (2010), Sherman (2011), Irvin and Wagner (2012) would have developed as they did without him. 

Also, he has all the "old boys club" connections you could want.  He was linebackers coach on Bucs with Jay Gruden and defensive coordinator for the Seahawks with McLoughan.  He even has experience taking Joe Barry's job - in 2007 he took over as the linebackers coach of the Bucs after Barry left.  Now if only we could convince someone to promote Joe Barry...I hear the Jags have a HC job available?

[Rockroi]

1 hour ago, White Walker Texas Ranger said:

The Chiefs have all the tools to beat the Pats, but on the other hand, Andy Reid v Bill Belichick.

If the Chiefs do beat the Pats, I hope they win the Superbowl. Any Reid is a good coach and his players love him. He's gotten too much shit for being a consistent top 10 coach throughout his career and I hope he wins at least one before he retires.

I actually agree with this, too.  I really like the Chiefs organization and think that city deserves a big win.  

 

1 hour ago, dbunting said:

Just a quick pulse of the board. Who do you think are legitimate SB contenders? Not just to get there but actually can see them winning it without a bunch of shithouse luck. For me it's the following, in no particular order:

Dallas, New England, Pittsburgh, New York Giants, KC

If any of those teams was to win it I would be like, yep, not a surprise.

Green Bay, Seattle are close but just seem a little off

The rest would need everything to line perfectly, IMO.

 

My opinion for "Teams Most Likely to Win the Superbowl without Stupid Luck" would be:

6. Atlanta:  I think that offense is nails; they do all the major things right.  Their D is not good, but they could pull it together now that the refs, traditionally, put the whistles away.  

5. KC: For all the reasons stated above.  At the same time, as of now, they have to play 3 road games before the SB.  Ugh... 

4. Seattle: If I were a NFC team, the LAST team I would want to play in the first two rounds of the playoffs would be Seattle. They have a great head coach, a great QB and a Defense that won't crack under pressure.  That's what you need. 

3. Steelers: Again, for the reasons I stated up-thread 

2. Cowboys: I can just as easily see the Cowboys winning the SB as I can see them losing their first playoff game. But they are playing their best football and through the season have taken very, very few steps back. 

1. Pats: I am very confident in the Pats as they head into the last week of the season to host the AFC Championship game (that can absolutely change).  And, yes, the Pats have lost in the first round before, but, this season, the Pats are playing exceptionally on both sides of the ball.  Yes, no Gronk, but name me the team that would not be improved by replacing their head coach and QB with Brady and Belichick; that team does not exist.  

Off my list:

GB/Detroit/Washington/TB: All of these teams have a list of weapons, but horrible deficiencies that leave them vulnerable to the better teams.  I cannot imagine GB beating Atlanta at Atlanta or ANY of them upsetting Dallas.  Further, they all seem susceptible to getting crushed by teams that know what they are doing (ie: Seattle).  And while GB has been the best team historically of this bunch, I don;t trust McCarthy at all and neither should the Packers. 

Houston: Houston's QB is fucking terrible; you can't win in the playoffs without a good QB at worst and that good QB must be complimented by an amazing Defense (ie: Trent Dilfer and Gus Johnson).  While the Texans D has been good, its objectively worse than it was a year ago when they went one-and-done.  

Miami: This is the traditional 6th seed that rotates in and out of the playoffs every season; an utterly harmless team that feels great about itself by making it just to get skull-fucked by the Steelers in the first round.  Horray! And if this turns out to be a jinx, so be it; I deserve the slings and arrows... 

Oakland: I mean, if their back-up QB turns out to be great, sure, but I am not buying that yet.  I think Oakland was a flawed team to begin with given their shaky D and their historically mediocre head coach, but without Carr I feel Oakland is that guy in the war movie who's legs have been blown off and he's bleeding out and his buddy is there telling him "Everything is going to be okay!  We're going to get you patched up and you are going to go home and everything is going to be great!"  Yeah, that's Oakland right now; they are bleeding out before our eyes and everyone around them is telling them its going to be okay. 

Giants: Yeah... not buying it. Okay, I get it that I SHOULD be afraid of the Giants because, historically, that has been the team that has crushed the Pats' soul in the SB.  But... in 2007 at least the Giants were playing tremendous football at the end; that D was smoking.  And in 2011, the Giants were just the better, all-around team.  IN 2011 Eli was playing great football; in 2007, that D was playing great football.  In 2016?  Both sides are hapless.  Eli vacilates between "Looks okay" to "Holy shit make it stop!"  He looks lost sometimes.  Meanwhile, the D has something special in Eli Apple, but as a whole the D is not monstrous enough to hold it together against good, experienced offenses.  And I think their head coach is not bright (tenfourgoodbuddyandrogerthat).  

 

31 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

 No definitive ending? How about arguably the worst season in almost 4 decades ('79?). And I'd say this one is actually worse, as it is the 2nd season of what should've been a rebuild that apparently hasn't even fucking started Is that definitive enough for ya?  

Yea... see... the joke was that the 49'ers season is sooooooooooo fucking terrible that it seems to go on forever.  That was the joke.  The joke was that while we all know that seasons always end, it FEELS like the 49'ers season is never ending- a horrible combination of everything terrible about watching a bad team play- the terrible play, the heartless Defense; the horrible coach just waiting to get fired, and the SJW cherry-on-top with Colin Kapernick's ongoing distraction.  

 

[Jaime L]

12 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I don't think the Redskins are likely to come out of this season thinking the defense performed acceptably.  So many times this year we relied on our offense to play defense and score another touchdown.  Making the playoffs won't change that.  Not to mention that the schemes just straight up don't work.  If guys were in the right position but just failing to make plays, then maybe I could understand it, but miscommunications and confusion (particularly at safety) are common on this team. 

Bradley's track record prior to joining the Jags was solid.  He took over a below average Seattle defense and turned it into a top 10 unit, primarily by developing the young players they drafted.  Now, maybe he just got lucky in getting handed all that defensive talent (the Seahawks didn't exactly drop off when he left), but still, he did it once.  Who knows if draft picks like Thomas and Chancellor (2010), Sherman (2011), Irvin and Wagner (2012) would have developed as they did without him. 

Also, he has all the "old boys club" connections you could want.  He was linebackers coach on Bucs with Jay Gruden and defensive coordinator for the Seahawks with McLoughan.  He even has experience taking Joe Barry's job - in 2007 he took over as the linebackers coach of the Bucs after Barry left.  Now if only we could convince someone to promote Joe Barry...I hear the Jags have a HC job available?

Yeah my only concern with Bradley is that they got even better after he left. From very good defense to all time great defense and Superbowl champs under Dan Quinn in 2013. But you're right he likely did play a role in developing Seattle's young talent though not sure why he hasn't been able to do the same in Jacksonville except for Jalen Ramsey who looks like an instant stud. Maybe Bortles is just too demoralizing to overcome.

And yes this defensive performance is totally unacceptable. I have zero faith in their ability to ever get stops or hold a lead. And it seems like Jay Gruden only intermittently understands this fact. We only win by outscoring teams, full stop. 

BTW, I remember you asking like a year ago who has better weapons than the Skins? People scoffed at that but you were completely right. I'd probably only take the Steelers weapons over what the Skins have assembled. This list from SI has 'em #2 which seems right on. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

18 minutes ago, Rockroi said:

Yea... see... the joke was that the 49'ers season is sooooooooooo fucking terrible that it seems to go on forever.  That was the joke.  The joke was that while we all know that seasons always end, it FEELS like the 49'ers season is never ending- a horrible combination of everything terrible about watching a bad team play- the terrible play, the heartless Defense; the horrible coach just waiting to get fired, and the SJW cherry-on-top with Colin Kapernick's ongoing distraction.  

 

/Man, that Gif would've been so much better as an inbed, as Soupcan would've been looking directly up at your post.

//The Kaepernick thing ceased being a distraction at about the 10 week mark. This season has been so incredibly horrid that even that sort of distraction would have been welcome. You can't rub salt on a gaping chest wound. Well you can, but it doesn't make a lick of difference really.

[Rockroi]

So, I want to give a special bit of attention to maybe the most overrated head coach of the last 15 years, Rex Ryan for finally, at long last, getting fired for being tremendously terrible.  

I wrote a long dissertation years ago on these boards after Ryan was fired by the Jets.  And my thesis was that Rex Ryan is horribly overrated (that post can be found here ).  Ryan's now lifetime record is 61-66 with two playoff seasons where he went a dramatically overachieving 4-2.  Overall, Ryan will be forever remembered for not doing anything memorable on Sundays.  

But on Wednesdays?  Wow.  Rex Ryan gave incredible pressers - and not just during the football season.  Any time Monday through Saturday morning, noon and night that guy was a quote machine!  Not a week went by where REx was not at it saying something dumb.  He was an icon.  

Sure, Sundays belonged to, you know, actual good head coaches who knew of how manage games, teams and expectations.  Sure, of the 31 other coaches at least 15 were better at actually running plays, figuring out opponents and winning division, conference and league titles.  Sure, maybe if you want to, you know, "win a game" you rely on saps like Belichick, Shanahan, Harbaugh, and Reid. But if you wanted to laugh out loud at a jackass saying jackass things over and over again without regard for consequences... well.. look no further than the Mouth of the 3rd-place-in-the-division head coach, Rex Ryan!  YEEEHAWWWW!!!!  

Farewell, Rex.  Youw ere the greatest Wednesday coach in NFL history!  

[sperry]

I'd take Rex Ryan over most coaches in the league.

[Rockroi]

Just now, sperry said:

I'd take Rex Ryan over most coaches in the league.

God I hope you are the GM of Pittsburgh, Denver or Baltimore.