Heresy 195 and the Mists of Time

[Black Crow]

4 hours ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Although I do agree with what your saying that it's entirely possible that he's just trying to say that the lists and what we think we know are unreliable, I'm looking more at the end words that he's using. Based on that list he's saying that it would suggest that the list was written during... During what? John says long ago, but what specific time long ago? And why would he bother to bring it up if there wasn't evidence that it was NOT written during the time frame that he anticipated? 

All I'm trying to say is that we don't know for sure if it was written before or after the time period that it would make sense to be written in. For that matter, maybe it really didn't have anything to do with the timing of the list and more to do with what exactly was occurring at the time it was written. Since he never reveals the exact timing we have no clue as to the concurrent events of that time frame either. 

You're quite right in saying that we're never told exactly when the list was written, but we don't need to because it was indeed long ago and outside the frame of reference for the present story. 

Why we get the ending in the form we do is because if there are already 674 names on the list then the problem is that while it was by Jon's estimate written long ago, in terms of Westerosi history it wasn't written long ago at all because those names come from a time before history was recorded.

[Black Crow]

4 hours ago, Lady Dyanna said:

But, is Sam actually saying that they were occasionally sighted? I took it more as Sam saying that they were mentioned. It could be that they were only mentioned in relation to the dragonglass that the CotF were providing. It could have been they were mentioned in relation to continued "what if" defenses. i.e.We need to continue the tradition of burning bodies in case they ever return or keep dragonglass on hand just in case, etc. I guess what I'm saying is that we really don't know for sure what the context was of them being mentioned. Sam never gets that far. I'm not saying that there might not have been some that existed, just that they were limited enough in threat and or sighting for them to become something of a legend and become disregarded as a made up tale, just like Tyrion's merlings. 

Well yes, Sam tells us that he finds them mentioned in the annals. He also talks about dragonglass but its clear from what he says that he's not using the same references for both.

As to your last sentence, that's what I've been saying. Rangers and Wildlings, and Gared's a good example, know there's something out there but its something nasty in the woodpile which only appears from time to time; not an army coming down the Milkwater. Sure something or someone has stirred up the present threat, but they haven't come from nowhere. They don't necessarily live [in the broadest sense] in the Haunted Forest, and may well belong in the Land of Always Winter, but just as the Black Rangers venture north into the forest, so the White Rangers venture south from time to time.

[shizett]

12 hours ago, Matthew. said:

I addressed this issue already in my earlier post--Mormont is uneasy, which is why he's asking Tyrion for help, but he lacks certitude. Mormont doesn't know that the white walkers have returned, which is why the discussion of that report from Eastwatch is treated the way it is. He's sharing a report with Tyrion that he knows to be dubious, but has troubled him nonetheless.

This is not a conversation where Mormont is saying "there are white walkers near Eastwatch," it's a conversation where Mormont is saying fisherfolk claim they've seen white walkers near Eastwatch. Like Tyrion, it's a sighting he doesn't consider entirely credible, yet it fits into a broader, troubling context. The sighting alone might be the sort of thing that could be shrugged off, but it's coming on the heels of a long summer ending, of mountain people fleeing their homes, of veteran rangers disappearing.

Just to make sure I understand your point: You think that Mormont himself does not believe in what he says but still has a bad feeling, so he shares it with Tyrion nonetheless? Well, I can agree with that. I got caught up in the other point of view too much to actually get what you were saying.

8 hours ago, Lady Dyanna said:

But, is Sam actually saying that they were occasionally sighted? I took it more as Sam saying that they were mentioned. It could be that they were only mentioned in relation to the dragonglass that the CotF were providing. It could have been they were mentioned in relation to continued "what if" defenses. i.e.We need to continue the tradition of burning bodies in case they ever return or keep dragonglass on hand just in case, etc. I guess what I'm saying is that we really don't know for sure what the context was of them being mentioned.

Thanks for the examples @Lady Dyanna. @Feather Crystal and @Matthew. brought up the same very good point, but because I couldn't think of scenarios where they could be mentioned in the annals, I insisted on the sightings being the case.

[LynnS]

4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

They don't necessarily live [in the broadest sense] in the Haunted Forest, and may well belong in the Land of Always Winter, but just as the Black Rangers venture north into the forest, so the White Rangers venture south from time to time.

I haven't a clue about the white walkers although they seem to have made a reappearance around the same time as the disappearance of rangers.  So I wonder if they are the brothers rather than Craster's boys.  The showdown between Waymar and the Other was curious.  It seemed like a demonstration to me with a heavy dose of disdain.  Waymar wasn't highly regarded by his brothers for lording himself around.  There is also the the Othor/Jafr trojan horse used to infiltrate Castle Black which would seem to imply some insider knowledge.  I tend to equate the reappearance of the WW as somebody tooling up with the CotF high on my list.  Old Nan's story of the Night King (shadow) binding his brothers with strange sorceries comes to mind.

[LynnS]

7 hours ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Well, really the only options that ever made any sense for that dragonglass were either Benjen or Coldhands. I could see Ghost getting more drawn in and leading Jon to that cache if it was Benjen. Someone that he was familiar with and knew had Jon's best interests at heart. That also might help to make some sense as to why Benjen was accepting of taking Jon back to the wall with him. If after talking to Ned it made a piece of the puzzle click for him, and he realized that he would be going off on a mission he might not return from he might have wanted to have someone else at the Wall that the rest of the Starks might be more likely to believe a strange tale from. He was also quite adamant that Jon not come with him beyond the wall. (Or it might just be late at night when I should really be sleeping.)

I think it likely that Benjen would have discussed Ned's report of Gared's wild tale with Aemon and Mormont.  This might be the first hard information explaining the disappearances and desertions of late.  So yes, I would imagine that it wouldn't be all that safe for a green boy considering Waymar's fate.  What does surprise me is that Craster denies seeing Benjen at all.  I would think that Craster would be the first person Benjen would question. 

[Matthew.]

4 hours ago, shizett said:

Just to make sure I understand your point: You think that Mormont himself does not believe in what he says but still has a bad feeling, so he shares it with Tyrion nonetheless?

I would say that it's more that Mormont knows the report from Eastwatch is dubious, but he's seeing a lot of troubling signs; the problem is that he lacks anything definitive enough to say for certain that the Others have returned, and ask the lords of the realm for help. Mormont is afraid that a new Long Night is coming, but he can't fully prove it, not even to himself.

8 hours ago, Black Crow said:

They don't necessarily live [in the broadest sense] in the Haunted Forest, and may well belong in the Land of Always Winter, but just as the Black Rangers venture north into the forest, so the White Rangers venture south from time to time.

As always, the problem remains the same: not only can this not actually be demonstrated with the text, but the behavior of the modern Night's Watch suggests the very opposite. If it's a "known" thing that the WWs are out there, and venture south occasionally, why isn't there some protocol in place for this fact? If the WWs never truly disappeared, then there should have been some baseline of knowledge and precaution that was maintained; eg. carry some dragonglass "just in case."

Yet, as we see from the text, the rangers have forgotten even the basics of how to deal with the Others, even though Sam's searching through the NW's records prove that they did know about the dragonglass at one point.

The prologue example of Gared is not a man working from practical knowledge, but superstition--he's unwilling to actually suggest aloud that there might be WWs in the vicinity (because such a suggestion might be seen as ludicrous), and his "solution" to his fears is drawn from childhood stories (they fear fire), rather than Watch knowledge. And, as we see in ASOS, the WWs do not fear fire, so once again he's operating from a position of fear and ignorance.

Finally, when Othor and Jaffer are discovered in aGoT, there are all sorts of warning signs: their bodies are discovered near the Wall, yet nobody heard them sound their horns to indicate a struggle, the amount of blood around their corpses isn't right, and most damningly, it's noted that neither Othor nor Jaffer had blue eyes. If the Watch knows that the WWs are out there, yet only considers them dangerous when they're raising the dead, wouldn't it be rather important that they recognize the significance of dead men's eyes changing to the color of sapphires?

The net totality of the evidence does not suggest an organization that knows the WWs are out there, but has shifted priorities--it suggests an organization that is so far removed from its last encounter with WWs that most of its membership, like the rest of Westeros, isn't sure that they ever existed in the first place.

[Melifeather]

^^^ 

[Black Crow]

3 hours ago, LynnS said:

  What does surprise me is that Craster denies seeing Benjen at all.  I would think that Craster would be the first person Benjen would question. 

Craster denies seeing him, but that aint necessarily so - unless of course Benjen already knew enough not to ask him, but that's something we'll have to wait and [hopefully] see.

[Black Crow]

41 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I would say that it's more that Mormont knows the report from Eastwatch is dubious, but he's seeing a lot of troubling signs; the problem is that he lacks anything definitive enough to say for certain that the Others have returned, and ask the lords of the realm for help. Mormont is afraid that a new Long Night is coming, but he can't fully prove it, not even to himself.

As always, the problem remains the same: not only can this not actually be demonstrated with the text, but the behavior of the modern Night's Watch suggests the very opposite. If it's a "known" thing that the WWs are out there, and venture south occasionally, why isn't there some protocol in place for this fact? If the WWs never truly disappeared, then there should have been some baseline of knowledge and precaution that was maintained; eg. carry some dragonglass "just in case."

Yet, as we see from the text, the rangers have forgotten even the basics of how to deal with the Others, even though Sam's searching through the NW's records prove that they did know about the dragonglass at one point.

The prologue example of Gared is not a man working from practical knowledge, but superstition--he's unwilling to actually suggest aloud that there might be WWs in the vicinity (because such a suggestion might be seen as ludicrous), and his "solution" to his fears is drawn from childhood stories (they fear fire), rather than Watch knowledge. And, as we see in ASOS, the WWs do not fear fire, so once again he's operating from a position of fear and ignorance.

Finally, when Othor and Jaffer are discovered in aGoT, there are all sorts of warning signs: their bodies are discovered near the Wall, yet nobody heard them sound their horns to indicate a struggle, the amount of blood around their corpses isn't right, and most damningly, it's noted that neither Othor nor Jaffer had blue eyes. If the Watch knows that the WWs are out there, yet only considers them dangerous when they're raising the dead, wouldn't it be rather important that they recognize the significance of dead men's eyes changing to the color of sapphires?

The net totality of the evidence does not suggest an organization that knows the WWs are out there, but has shifted priorities--it suggests an organization that is so far removed from its last encounter with WWs that most of its membership, like the rest of Westeros, isn't sure that they ever existed in the first place.

I disagree of course, but rather than drag this thread further off course I'll just make the point that the term white shadows or white shadows of the wood should be taken literally. Will actually first sees Craster's boys as white shadows in the woods. Its a term which conveys and is intended to convey something half-seen and uncertain at the edge of vision - not the Others leading their armies of the slain.

[Black Crow]

5 hours ago, LynnS said:

 So I wonder if they are the brothers rather than Craster's boys.  

white rangers/black rangers 

[LynnS]

7 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

I disagree of course, but rather than drag this thread further off course I'll just make the point that the term white shadows or white shadows of the wood should be taken literally. Will actually first sees Craster's boys as white shadows in the woods. Its a term which conveys and is intended to convey something half-seen and uncertain at the edge of vision - not the Others leading their armies of the slain.

The more tangible threat in Mormont's mind is Mance who is probably high on his list of suspects for disappearing rangers. That's all goes out the window when Othor stands up and walks around.

Yet they still maintain the protocol of 3 horns blasts for the Others.

[Brad Stark]

12 hours ago, Lord Wraith said:

I'd add the Great Empire of the Dawn set before the Long Night and could be argued that the Long Night is what helped destroy it.

It could also be that there was no Great Empire, and it is purely a myth.   I am more interested if we can put date ranges on the events I listed.  Even if there was a Great Empire,  the end date is the same as The Long Night and we don't have evidence for a start date,  so it doesn't help much.

[Brad Stark]

11 hours ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Well, really the only options that ever made any sense for that dragonglass were either Benjen or Coldhands. I could see Ghost getting more drawn in and leading Jon to that cache if it was Benjen. Someone that he was familiar with and knew had Jon's best interests at heart. That also might help to make some sense as to why Benjen was accepting of taking Jon back to the wall with him. If after talking to Ned it made a piece of the puzzle click for him, and he realized that he would be going off on a mission he might not return from he might have wanted to have someone else at the Wall that the rest of the Starks might be more likely to believe a strange tale from. He was also quite adamant that Jon not come with him beyond the wall. (Or it might just be late at night when I should really be sleeping.)

I assumed Children,  possibly Leaf, left the cache. 

[Matthew.]

53 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Its a term which conveys and is intended to convey something half-seen and uncertain at the edge of vision - not the Others leading their armies of the slain.

Something "half seen and uncertain" is not at all the same thing as "the white rangers, who are known to come south occasionally, but not seen as dangerous so long as they're not raising the dead." The latter proposes a degree of frequency and familiarity that is not actually represented in the text, whereas this is Will's experience:
 

Quote

Will saw movement from the corner of his eye. Pale shapes gliding through the wood. He turned his head, glimpsed a white shadow in the darkness. Then it was gone. Branches stirred gently in the wind, scratching at one another with wooden fingers. Will opened his mouth to call down a warning, and the words seemed to freeze in his throat. Perhaps he was wrong. Perhaps it had only been a bird, a reflection on the snow, some trick of the moonlight. What had he seen, after all?

Notice how Will's mind doesn't jump to the notion of this being something familiar, of this being an experience that one has on occasion while ranging the Haunted Forest (which would suggest a degree of regularity)--instead he questions whether or not he saw anything at all.

Will is second guessing himself because there is no established idea of "the white shadows" within the Watch, no longstanding string of sightings. What is happening is an extremely recent phenomenon, which is why Will is so tempted to try to put it in a rational context--because he has no other context for what he is seeing, save for children's stories.

[Black Crow]

4 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

Will is second guessing himself because there is no established idea of "the white shadows" within the Watch, no longstanding string of sightings. What is happening is an extremely recent phenomenon, which is why Will is so tempted to try to put it in a rational context--because he has no other context for what he is seeing, save for children's stories.

A dangerous assumption given Gared's attitude for one. Will certainly sees white shadows and if he's only heard stories before that he's a lot more likely to have heard them around ranger campfires than remembering bedtime stories from childhood.

[Black Crow]

49 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

I assumed Children,  possibly Leaf, left the cache. 

Not necessarily. What's significant is that its hidden and is only found through Ghost.

If, just for the sake of argument, the Children knew Craster's boys were coming down the pike and wanted the Watch to have the dragonglass they would surely lave left it where it could easily have been found.

The most likely scenario is not that it was meant to be found by the Watch but that someone - not improbably Benjen - had it and was being pursued by its rightful owners. In order to run or ride faster he therefore buried it [and of course the horn] intending to come back for it later...

[Black Crow]

1 hour ago, LynnS said:

Yet they still maintain the protocol of 3 horns blasts for the Others.

And Chett wets himself when he hears it 

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, Black Crow said:

A dangerous assumption given Gared's attitude for one. Will certainly sees white shadows and if he's only heard stories before that he's a lot more likely to have heard them around ranger campfires than remembering bedtime stories from childhood.

Gared's attitude is exactly the same as Will's--an unease, a suspicion of what could be out there, but an unwillingness to say it with certainty, because to actually suggest that they're dealing with the Others seems too absurd to be real. We see the same with Mormont's restraint, and Jon's internal thoughts that Benjen and co. might have been attacked by the Others rather than Wildlings, yet being unwilling to actually suggest such a thing aloud.

Reread the quote from Will, it is not at all consistent with Will reconciling what he's just experienced with stories told around the campfire by other rangers. He did not see "the white shadows," (as an established NW concept) he thinks he saw a white shadow (a literal physical description that he has developed on the fly), and then he immediately begins to second guess himself, to rationalize--it was only a bird, a reflection on the snow.  Why would he need to rationalize, if spotting "white shadows" is not uncommon?

And, of course, the other problem here is that it's not unreasonable to suggest that Craster's sons may have been seen from a distance, but that's still a recent phenomenon. How do we establish that, say, the rangers were spotting the white walkers 500 years ago, 1,000 years ago? Why is it important that we interpret them in that way, despite its impossibility to demonstrate, and the numerous textual contradictions?

[Black Crow]

Gared's wanting to light a fire and his reason for doing so is much nearer to certainty.

Why is it so important to deny the white shadows in the wood? Of course there are contradictions and uncertainties, just as there are with the Children and with the timelines.

But with that, its time for bed. Good night all

[Black Crow]

And seeing as how we're where we are on the thread, here's a heads up that Heresy 196 will open with the first of two essays by Lynn S on... The Wall.