Thoughts on the second Dance and the point of the whole thing

[Lord Varys]

38 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Isn't that what I said? Why are you arguing about that?

Occasionally I support the views of other people by reiterating them or adding details to them.

38 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The first main conflict identified by our storyteller is the Stark-Lannister conflict. That was set in motion by Petyr, who had other do his bidding, directly or indirectly. He was not acting on behalf of anyone else. His primary role was only confirmed at the end of the conflict. (The Stark-Lannister conflict will continue but not as a main conflict in the story.) By definition, he was the big bad, at least for the first main conflict of the story. 

But surely Petyr would only truly a big bad if he would actually continue to oppose the main characters. He is light years away from that right now. In addition, I would say the War of the Five Kings was much more than a Star-Lannister conflict. That was the original conception but it grew in the telling even in AGoT. But if you go back to AGoT then things might have turned pretty much the same way with or without Littlefinger's meddling. Ned disliked the Lannisters from the start, just as Jaime and Cersei mistrusted him. Jaime would have thrown Bran out of the window, Robb and Joff would grown to dislike each other, Joff would have sent his goon to kill Bran, Arya and Joff would have grown to hating each other, and Ned would have tried to tell Robert about the twincest had he found out somehow. Cersei would also have seen Ned as a problem as Lord Regent for her son, and would have done everything in her power to get rid of him.

Littlefnger accelerated things, but he didn't cause the war. His most important action most likely was to arrange Ned's execution. That one was crucial to prevent some sort of peace between the Starks and Lannisters.

38 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Did the George tell you that, or did you see it in a vision? 

We know the former from an interview Ran had with George where he told him that he always knew the three-eyed crow was some Targaryen. The latter is pretty clear in AGoT. No mentioning of the Blackfyres anywhere until ASoS yet hints that Varys/Illyrio play their own game and that some Aegon might appear later in the story.

38 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Again, isn't that kinda what I said? 

See above.

38 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Umm... yeah... That's why I said Jon would lead the men of Westeros against 'em. But they will need Bran's magic to win the day in some cataclysmic fashion. (I'm think a supervolcano erupts in Winterfell, but that's just a wild guess.) 

Again, my take is that Bran's magic won't be enough. If Bran's magic could make a huge difference by its own he could deal with the Others only working with the wildlings and there would be no need for a larger alliance. Bran might not even be able to prevent the fall of the Wall despite the fact that he might be connected to the Night Gate through the weirwood net and have the ability to strengthen the magic in the Wall considerably before the Others finally break it.

[Lord Varys]

28 minutes ago, Makk said:

I do feel strongly that Jon is going to become a leader of Westeros in some form, maybe or maybe not king, but in a way that Stannis never will. Although I said Stannis would take Winterfell, I don't believe there is room for both Stannis and Jon in these roles. Whether this is because Stannis dies (betrayed by the Northmen perhaps, I don't think Brieanne will kill him), goes crazy, joins the nightwatch, becomes the nightsking or whatever, I don't see him commanding any significant loyalty for much longer.

We know from D&D as well as George himself that Stannis will burn Shireen. And that this is going to be an event that's not going to happy early on in TWoW because George had not yet written the scene when he was commenting on it.

That makes it very unlikely that Stannis is going to die soon.

But I agree with you that Jon will eventually become an important leader in the North/at the Wall but that might only happen after Stannis' demise, or there might be a split between Stannis and Jon as to how to deal with the Others. They are not likely to become open enemies because there is too much at stake but Jon might not be willing to go down the path Stannis chooses to go.

28 minutes ago, Makk said:

As for Aegon and Dorne, it certainly looks the way you describe things at the moment, but that typically means it is not going to happen.

No, it doesn't. More often than not stuff we expect to happen does happen. And Arianne marrying Aegon and Dorne joining him doesn't mean that Aegon will prevail in the end.

28 minutes ago, Makk said:

Arriane has been built up into quite a significant character. She has a purpose in the story and I believe that is greater than simply getting Aegon to pick her over a possible Daenerys marriage. She has been sent to him to figure out whether he is genuine and I think she will realise he is an impostor. At this stage she will be faced with the choice of wedding him anyway (which she wants to do) or do the "right" thing and not lead her country into following him under false pretenses. As for symbolism, Dorne has sided with the Targaryens in every blackfyre rebellion.

Once the news about Dany's alleged death in Daznak's Pit and Quentyn's certain demise will reach Arianne and Dorne they will have to choose between doing nothing and joining Aegon. Aegon - true or false - will be their way to get their revenge and to get access to the Iron Throne again. They will go with Aegon.

28 minutes ago, Makk said:

Edmure Tully is unlikely to be considered a leader. He is a Lannister prisoner and isn't held in particularly high esteem in the Riverlands. He has never been written as a dynamic character. If you wanted to make a point here you should have named the Blackfish.

The Blackfish will be involved there as well but Edmure has changed, you can see that in AFfC, and he is likely going to be freed in the Prologue of TWoW. Even if he dies, there are still Catelyn and the Blackfish.

28 minutes ago, Makk said:

As for Catelyn, I believe she has every reason to support Jon and she will be the one to resurrect him, giving up her own life in the process.

That makes no sense whatsoever. She is thousands of leagues away from him and she never liked the boy, and has no reason to do so now. Catelyn has come back from the dead. She follows her own agenda now, and has no reason to care all that much about Robb's wishes.

28 minutes ago, Makk said:

Euron, well I admit I have little idea where he is going or what he wants but I haven't heard a better idea. He seems to be linked to Bloodraven and the more magical rather than political aspects of the story, which is represented more with the Others. If he does aid the others, whether it is consciously or not is purely irrelevant quibbling. He seems to want something in Oldtown and doesn't seem to care too much about the long term consequences for the Ironborn.

There are no good hints that Euron is determined to take Oldtown. He is planning to engage the Redwyne fleet. What he is going to do thereafter remains to be seen. What he wants is the Iron Throne, apparently. If he is a failed greenseer and was touched by the Others in some fashion he is going to help them by creating more chaos in Westeros, making things easier for them. But there are no hints that he is actively allies with them or able to bring down the Wall. He is as far away from the Wall as you can be.

28 minutes ago, Makk said:

Your point about Daenerys is your strongest. Right from the first book this looked like by far the most the likely and obvious endgame... but GRRM has constantly proven to be more subtle than that. If she does swoop in and save the day I think I would likely be a little disappointed with the ending. In any event, I think she has still got a lot to do in Essos and is, at least for a period, going to be a darker character. She achieved her peace through diplomatic means and then found she didn't like it. I think her Dance chapters were the turning point of her becoming a more antagonistic character.

Dany participating in the final battle doesn't have to mean she is saving the day. But the foreshadowing in her case is about as strong as the hints pointing towards the Red or Purple Wedding so I'd say we can expect her to play a role in the fight against the Others. Considering that her dream made it be her Trident it might be that she will die there as Rhaegar did. But then, the Others don't have their own Robert Baratheon so she might live. Not to mention that she is no warrior and will thus only encounter the enemy on dragonback.

[HaeSuse]

This will be unpopular, I'm betting. I hate Dany. I hate her character. I hate her plot. I hate having to read her chapters. I hate reading about Essos. I hate Brown Ben. I hate Daario. I hate the Golden Company. It's all fluff, and it's all waste. Horrible, contrived, nonsense. A woman heroine archetype written to be just that. Kitschy, cliche, obvious, trite crap.

I'm hoping beyond hope that she sails to Westeros, and makes whatever decisions. Maybe handle Young Griff first. Maybe take KL first. Maybe take some other coastal keep first, so they have a base of operations. Whatever. And then her horribly written arc can come to a vainglorious end. Her inner thoughts might be something like, "I'm freeing the people of Westeros from their chains! I'm retaking what is mine by right!!!"

 

And the people see her. And the people hear her. And they fear her. And they fear her dragons. And she dies. And the dragons die. And Westeros rejoices at the true end to the Targs and Dragons. The second dance, then, is not her dragons waging wars, picking riders, burning things. The second dance is Westeros finally saying, "enough is enough, we are already the superior culture, people and realm. We don't need freeing. We don't want dragons. We don't want Targs. Good effing riddance. Take your Old/High Valyrian and shove it up your arse." 

 

I know everyone would be upset. But I will be even more upset if Dany really has some big role in the denouement. The climax needs to be her brutally slain by some commoner or another in a very mundane fashion. Say what you will about Westeros and the Lannisters.... they at least know one basic fact that Dany does not. People are just people. Dany isn't "Stormborn". She's not "immune to fire". She's not "the last dragon". She's not "the mother of dragons." She's just Dany. And without her dragons, no one gives a flying fark who she is. I'd even love it if everyone stole all her dragons, and left her in Essos to be dealt with by Mereen. 

[The Fattest Leech]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We know from D&D as well as George himself that Stannis will burn Shireen. And that this is going to be an event that's not going to happy early on in TWoW because George had not yet written the scene when he was commenting on it.

 

Nope. There is a difference between "Shireen burns," and, "Stannis burns Shireen." What do these two scenario's have in common? Melisandre and her desire to find AA and make him reborn.

http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2015/06/stannis-burns-shireen-game-of-thrones-dance-of-dragons

video link here

http://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/609113-recap-review-game-thrones-season-5-episode-9-dance-dragons

 

On 1/25/2017 at 9:36 AM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

1. He can basically cut the Dance altogether. This is a little unsatisfying but not as unsatisfying as giving us 2 more in-story years of dragon-fighting while the Others are still implausibly and frustratingly kept in the green room.

2. He can reverse his original order: let the Others come before the dragons. This would actually be an interesting surprise, if Dany saved Westeros from a supernatural evil and then turned out to be just as bad.

3. My preferred option - and, full disclosure, my preferred option even if he had managed to stick to his original schema - my preferred option generally - is to use what I call plot accelerant. Kick the whole thing into high gear and start moving much faster, faster than the reader anticipates: it's like literary maneouvre warfare.² In this particular instance, the implementation of this strategy would involve having the Others and the dragons hit at pretty much the same time. This would mean that neither of the original scenarios - the Dance of the Dragons or the War for the Dawn - would come off like he'd originally planned, and it'd create all sorts of plot headaches. But it could also be brilliant.

And if he does option 3, then maybe that's been the idea all along: to compare the dragons quite directly to the Others, both terrible forces of destruction, both no good.

Of course, he could just as easily pull some terrific surprise out of his arse, so we'll have to wait and see.

-------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

I think it could be somewhat of a 2 and 3 combo... with a diet Coke.

He could flip his ideas to Others before dragons, and then use the accelerant to get things moving. I would like it if this happened, but I would hate it if it turned out Dany spent her whole time on Essos just to swoop in and save a fight she was never part of. That would be cliche and lame.

I do like the image of the dragons and Others as both terrible forces of destruction. We have seen that literally and symbolically while the dragons were still alive.

We only have 2 books left (??), and even though George has said TWOW opens with two major battles, that is not THE fight for humanity, and that needs to get it's move on so we have enough time to get a fantastic battle, and then following characters into the aftermath in a satisfying way.

[Lord Varys]

29 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

Nope. There is a difference between "Shireen burns," and, "Stannis burns Shireen." What is are the things these two scenario's have in common? Melisandre and her desire to find AA and make him reborn.

http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2015/06/stannis-burns-shireen-game-of-thrones-dance-of-dragons

video link here

http://www.comingsoon.net/movies/news/609113-recap-review-game-thrones-season-5-episode-9-dance-dragons

D&D make it quite clear that it is George's idea that Stannis burns his daughter. Melisandre is also playing a role there but the cruel part for which they credit George and George alone is the fact that Stannis sacrifices his own daughter. A woman killing some girl would also be a crime, to be sure, but certainly not as bad as a parent killing his only child.

That's the important part there. And if George goes down the 'the evil priestess does something behind Stannis' back' road this plotline will actually be less effective than it was in the show. At least insofar as the fallout is concerned.

We can also be pretty sure that the show only introduced Shireen (who wasn't there in season 2) because of her importance to Stannis' arc. But if Stannis doesn't kill her Shireen has no significance to the plot whatsoever. Melisandre could burn Gilly's child, Gerrick Kingsblood's daughters, Val, Axell Florent, Selyse, or some other person instead of Shireen and the story wouldn't change all that much. But Stannis' story greatly profits from him killing his only child. You cannot do anything worse than that.

[Lost Melnibonean]

56 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

D&D make it quite clear that it is George's idea that Stannis burns his daughter.

No they don't. That's your interpretation. You may be right. But believe it or not, you might actually be wrong. 

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

No they don't. That's your interpretation. You may be right. But believe it or not, you might actually be wrong. 

Do you really think Mel burning some girl is such a big deal (compared to her burning other people people, contemplating killing Edric/Gendry, killing Renly, etc.) that D&D would highlight this whole thing as such a great deal?

And again, D&D never cared about Stannis and effectively cut both Selyse and Shireen from the show in season 2. It seems they only put them in in season 3 after they learned what the point of those characters was, realizing that they provided them with a great twist/shock moment.

The idea that they came up with the idea that Stannis would burn his own daughter is, quite frankly, very unlikely. And George is never going to go with the second best option. The best version is Stannis killing his only child, not Mel doing it behind his back (or after his death).

[Lost Melnibonean]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Do you really think Mel burning some girl is such a big deal (compared to her burning other people people, contemplating killing Edric/Gendry, killing Renly, etc.) that D&D would highlight this whole thing as such a great deal?

And again, D&D never cared about Stannis and effectively cut both Selyse and Shireen from the show in season 2. It seems they only put them in in season 3 after they learned what the point of those characters was, realizing that they provided them with a great twist/shock moment.

The idea that they came up with the idea that Stannis would burn his own daughter is, quite frankly, very unlikely. And George is never going to go with the second best option. The best version is Stannis killing his only child, not Mel doing it behind his back (or after his death).

Do you really think your assumption is an inescapable fact? 

[Scorpion92]

Kingdoms of Reach, Dorne and Stormlands warred against each other for thousands of years per TWOIAF. One of the main reasons why I think Aegon is introduced to the story is to weaken powers inside these three kingdoms, erase the political borders between them, and start unification of southern Westerosi under one banner rather than three before the last third act of fighting White Walkers.

In my opinion, Daenerys' Stormborn title obviously creates some ties and associations with Stormlands thematically. Also there is Edric STORM who I believe will have some story parallels to Orys Baratheon, someone who assisted Aegon with conquest of Stormlands. While Orys was highly successful in Stormlands, I think Edric's invasion will be a failure for two reasons: Shipbreaker Bay which I think will be highly active and treacherous and drown a notable amount of Dany's ships inspired historically by failed Mongol invasion of Japan.

Daenerys' forces sent with Edric will be highly decimated, and by the time he and those who survived the waters of Shipbreaker Bay and landed at Storm's End, George will flip the parallels of battle of the Last Storm, where much more ruthless and experienced Jon Connington, Aegon's Hand, and seductive Arianne Martell will parallel Orys Baratheon and Rhaenys Targaryen will combine their forces and kill everyone associated with Dany who landed around Shipbreaker Bay. Connington (Orys) will personally slay Edric Storm (Argillac the Last Storm) at the walls of Storm's End, ending the known line of the Usurper once and for all like Orys did with Argillac. I really believe the castle's name even foreshadows Edric's end - Storm's End.

Stannis, Shireen, Tommen and Myrcella all will be gone by then, and Connington swore he will end Robert's line - Gendry does not count because no one except Brienne and maybe Thoros knows his heritage, and from the looks of it, he is earning the name for himself the hard way and has different story purpose than being some noble, a social class he actually despises. 

Having failed to land her forces in Stormlands, I think Dany will personally lead next landing and it will be in Dorne - it is my personal belief that Dothrakis will assemble and later on assimilate in Dorne the way wildlings eventually do in the North. Dorne has the best climate that Dothraki might prefer. Even Dornish have olive skin just like Dothrakis do. And Dothrakis and their horses might be more than a match to Dornish stallion. Just call it a hunch. Guerilla tactics of Dornish will not work with Dothrakis, and I expect Dany to have easier time conquering Dorne than her ancestors. In fact, the assimilation of Dothrakis in Dorne led by Dany will parralel the assimilation of Rhoynish in Dorne led by Nymeria.

I also predict that Edric Dayne, Anguy (a guy from Dornish Marches) and part of Brotherhood that left Riverlands will arrive in Red Mountains. Edric will be a new Vulture King and gather everyone who are "broken" by the second dance of dragons in neighboring Stormlands, Dorne and Reach, because Red Mountains are located right between these three kingdoms. I think eventually Edric will find common ground with Daenerys after her conquest of Dorne and ally himself with her, because Darkstar will steal Dawn from Starfall and join Aegon as his Kingsguard - "Arthur Dayne" and "Rhaegar Targaryen" reborn. And Darkstar is a disgrace to Daynes with his questionable morality who does not deserve Dawn and Sword of the Morning title. 

Besides that, Dany is "breaker of chains", and I think by that time she will be able to offer smallfolk more social and economic protection and basically begin reforming feudal structure of Westeros into something better and acceptable. Maybe the Dornish law that we keep hearing about does include these priviliges (better social system, healthcare, women rights, etc.) that will make Dany's Dornish conquest go more smoothly. This is what practically Edric Dayne is fighting for as well. He was part of Brotherhood without Banners and Beric instilled and ingrained these principles of smallfolk protection into his brain. Dany might be the ruler that can change things in Westeros.

After Dany's conquest of Dorne she will keep marching north to Reach and Stormlands where deciding battles between her and Aegon's factions will be fought. 

All in all, I think Dorne, Reach and Stormlands will eventually be united into one political entity thanks first to Aegon (uniting nobles of these kingdoms under his banner), and then Dany (destroying feudal class and uniting the ENTIRE population, mostly smallfolk, under her banner). 

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Do you really think your assumption is an inescapable fact? 

I never said that, I implied that I had good arguments supporting my position.

The idea that Mel is going to kill Shireen is based on the faulty assumptions that the show indicates that Stannis and Shireen are going to die soon when there are in fact no good reasons to believe that. In fact, we have evidence to the contrary.

 

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

D&D make it quite clear that it is George's idea that Stannis burns his daughter. Melisandre is also playing a role there but the cruel part for which they credit George and George alone is the fact that Stannis sacrifices his own daughter. A woman killing some girl would also be a crime, to be sure, but certainly not as bad as a parent killing his only child.

That's the important part there. And if George goes down the 'the evil priestess does something behind Stannis' back' road this plotline will actually be less effective than it was in the show. At least insofar as the fallout is concerned.

We can also be pretty sure that the show only introduced Shireen (who wasn't there in season 2) because of her importance to Stannis' arc. But if Stannis doesn't kill her Shireen has no significance to the plot whatsoever. Melisandre could burn Gilly's child, Gerrick Kingsblood's daughters, Val, Axell Florent, Selyse, or some other person instead of Shireen and the story wouldn't change all that much. But Stannis' story greatly profits from him killing his only child. You cannot do anything worse than that.

I think the problem with what the Ds said when they "spoiled" this development is how they phrased it. They never said, "When George told us that Stannis burns Shireen alive"; instead, they, while talking about Shireen's death, say "When George told us this". They could have meant that George said Stannis burns Shireen or they could have been talking just about the fact that Shireen burns alive. Like many, I always thought it's very likely that Stannis wil ldo it in the books, but I gotta tell you... when I saw the Ds talking about it n that silly Outside the Episode and phrasing it they way they did, they first thing I thought was, "Martin didn't say what they're implying he said and they're hiding behind his back b/c they chose to go for the most shock value they could squeeze out of Shireen's immolation." After all, this ep aired shortly after the Sansa Poole debacle. As a matter of fact, when I saw OtE I started having doubts about Stannis doing it in the books.

 

[Lord Varys]

@kissdbyfire

Well, considering that they laid that whole thing at George's feet rather than talking about their own greatness, etc. one assumes that the entire event - Stannis deciding to burn his only child at the stake - goes back to George, not just 'X deciding to burn Shireen at the stake'.

One has to ask why the hell the show would depart from the books in a detail like who commands/arranges Shireen's sacrifice. Stannis is the best choice, the choice George would choose, too. If Mel would burn Shireen shortly thereafter to bring Jon back or something of that sort then the show could have done that, too. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We know the former from an interview Ran had with George where he told him that he always knew the three-eyed crow was some Targaryen. The latter is pretty clear in AGoT. No mentioning of the Blackfyres anywhere until ASoS yet hints that Varys/Illyrio play their own game and that some Aegon might appear later in the story.

Hmm... not quite...

Quote

I wanted to ask about your process in creating the series, through a specific example from A Dance with Dragons. To dance around it a bit, lets say that we learn more about the story of the three-eyed crow, a figure first glimpsed in a very early Bran chapter. Were these details something you knew all along? Or was it a situation where you knew you'd need more information to go with this mystical figure, but figured you'd just come across those details organically later on in the series?

I wouldn't say I knew right from the start, but I've certainly known the details for a long, long time. From the very start, I didn't even really know what this story was. As I've said before, when the first chapter came to me, I was in the midst of writing a science fiction novel, Avalon, when I started writing this story about wolf pups being found in the snow. So, you know, some point very early on, before A Game of Thrones was published, I had started filling in these details. We're talking 1994 or 1995.

There was a point early on, relatively early in the writing of the series, where I stopped writing and did a spate of world building. I didn't do it before I started, like Tolkien, but I was writing the book and I was getting in and starting to refer to history. So I stopped and started to formalize it, drawing the maps, working out the genealogies, the list of the Targaryen rulers and the dates of their reigns, and so on. But of course, as you know -- because you're one of the ones that pointed it out back then -- it didn't all necessarily jive with what I wrote in "The Hedge Knight". But in any case, I was starting to think about all of these things as I did it, and I had little hints about their stories through the nicknames I gave the kings. So Maegor the Cruel, Jaehaerys the Conciliator, and the Young Dragon, and so on. So the seeds of a lot of the history were planted when I drew up that list.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/5431/

Or perhaps you were referring another interview? 

[Therae]

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that they came up with the idea that Stannis would burn his own daughter is, quite frankly, very unlikely. And George is never going to go with the second best option. The best version is Stannis killing his only child, not Mel doing it behind his back (or after his death).

This is interesting and it never occurred to me at all. I actually could see this as a possibility (apologies if this was already discussed in the previous thread). Granted, it requires a lot of assumptions, like Stannis being dead, but sooner or later, one way or another, he probably will be, so there are a few options for what Mel might hope to gain by burning Shireen post Stannis mortem (Jon for her new Azor Ahai, only he's dead at the point we left off, so maybe just to bring him back, but if she thinks she can bring Jon back--or if he's already back by other means [my vote], then maybe she thinks she can bring Stannis back, for that matter...). If the idea is to resurrect Stannis himself, I could see it making a lot of sense (to Mel).

More importantly, in the absence of Stannis, I could totally see Selyse dragging Shireen to the fire herself if Mel mentioned the offhand possibility that her king's blood might fix something, especially if Davos is still off in Skagos where he can't talk sense into anyone (not to mention Selyse probably wouldn't listen to him, even if he had anything like the special relationship with Shireen that Show!Davos has). Selyse is such a fanatic I don't think she would even be moved by anything but religious ecstasy at the sight of her own daughter burning for the red god.

And, as far as D&D, they do have a tendency to one-up the pathos wherever possible, and making everyone a little (or a lot) worse than they already are, so I could see it not being enough that Shireen burns, but that Stannis burns her.

All that said, I'm more inclined to expect this to be a lot more of an Agamemnon and Iphigeneia at Aulis sort of situation, and it is Stannis after all.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Hmm... not quite...

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/5431/

Or perhaps you were referring another interview? 

I don't know. Ran has himself referred to that interview in some postings. He stated that George had told him the three-eyed crow was Bloodraven for a very long time, and that Bloodraven as a character came much later, only in TSS.

2 minutes ago, Therae said:

More importantly, in the absence of Stannis, I could totally see Selyse dragging Shireen to the fire herself if Mel mentioned the offhand possibility that her king's blood might fix something, especially if Davos is still off in Skagos where he can't talk sense into anyone (not to mention Selyse probably wouldn't listen to him, even if he had anything like the special relationship with Shireen that Show!Davos has). Selyse is such a fanatic I don't think she would even be moved by anything but religious ecstasy by the sight of her own daughter burning for the red god.

That makes no sense whatsoever. Selyse's one redeeming quality in the books is her love for her daughter. Stannis never interacts with her but Selyse clearly cares for her. She would never approve of the idea to kill her, especially not should she actually believe Stannis is dead. Because then Shireen would be queen, and she could now play a much larger role as the mother of the new queen.

And Mel is not as sick a character (as per her own POV) to push anybody to sacrifice his or her own daughter while there is yet another option. She won't contemplate such a thing unless they are in a very bad situation. But Ramsay claiming Stannis is dead and Jon Snow actually being dead isn't a desperate situation. That is still quite manageable. We are likely to expect something of that sort to happen when the Others are coming, preparing to break the Wall or when they have already broken it. Then this could seem a reasonable option in Mel's and Stannis' mind, but not while there is pretty much nothing at stake.

There is no reason to believe that anybody in the books is going to try to resurrect Jon Snow after his death. Why should they? That's not something people do in this series on a regular basis. If Mel ever thought Jon could be the savior (why should she?) she would most likely interpret his death as proof that he isn't not that she has now to do anything in her power to bring him back.

Not to mention that the Kiss of Fire works perfectly fine to resurrect Jon's body. His spirit will be (more or less) safe in Ghost in the meantime.

[Makk]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We know from D&D as well as George himself that Stannis will burn Shireen. And that this is going to be an event that's not going to happy early on in TWoW because George had not yet written the scene when he was commenting on it.

That makes it very unlikely that Stannis is going to die soon.

I don't know exactly what they said but I would be very cautious about making assumptions about it. You seem to be relying on them recalling exactly what George told them, George actually knowing for sure exactly what would happen when he told them and telling them correctly, them relaying the information exactly correctly and then however other many sets of hands the information went through doing the same. There is so much that can go wrong there it isn't funny.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Once the news about Dany's alleged death in Daznak's Pit and Quentyn's certain demise will reach Arianne and Dorne they will have to choose between doing nothing and joining Aegon. Aegon - true or false - will be their way to get their revenge and to get access to the Iron Throne again. They will go with Aegon.

Alleged stuff happens all the time and Doran pays little heed to it, he investigates. It's also quite possible that Arriane will make a decision before any of that news reaches them, as it stands her second Winds chapter occurs half a month before Daenerys flies off on Drogan. Doran is also quite clear that Arriane is to go there to see if he really is Aegon, Doran does not want to follow an impostor, that is considered important. It might turn out you are correct on this, it could go either way, but you haven't put forward valid reasoning.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Blackfish will be involved there as well but Edmure has changed, you can see that in AFfC, and he is likely going to be freed in the Prologue of TWoW. Even if he dies, there are still Catelyn and the Blackfish.

Why would he be freed? You are talking about him being rescued along the way? If he is freed at the end of the prologue winds chapter, it is probably a continuity error. There is more than enough time since Edmure departed for Casterlyrock to reach there before the epilogue where we get to hear Kevan's thoughts. He has concerns about the Riverlands but nothing about Edmure getting hijacked. I'm not sure what you are basing these things on. As for the Blackfish, yes he is a much more dynamic leader. But again he would follow Jon because of Robb's will. When Jaime spoke to him at Riverrun he was flying the Direwolf ffs. Why do you think he would he be doing that?

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That makes no sense whatsoever. She is thousands of leagues away from him and she never liked the boy, and has no reason to do so now. Catelyn has come back from the dead. She follows her own agenda now, and has no reason to care all that much about Robb's wishes.

It's probably about 100 days travel, which I admit is a lot, especially with the snow. A few years ago even though I liked the theory I thought it was too much of an obstacle. But as time has passed I have come around a lot. If GRRM wants it to happen he will get around the geographical issue. The last time we see LSH is more than 2 months before Jon's likely death. She could actually be much, much closer if she had another reason to go to the wall (like to crown him) in mind. As for her motivation, I reject your argument completely. You have little idea what she is thinking. Her handling of Robb's crown indicates that she very much still cares about Robb. The fact she has the complicated relationship with Jon, the fact she can raise the dead, and the fact that Jon is likely dead, just seems too coincidental, neat, tidy and poetic for me.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There are no good hints that Euron is determined to take Oldtown. He is planning to engage the Redwyne fleet. What he is going to do thereafter remains to be seen. What he wants is the Iron Throne, apparently. If he is a failed greenseer and was touched by the Others in some fashion he is going to help them by creating more chaos in Westeros, making things easier for them. But there are no hints that he is actively allies with them or able to bring down the Wall. He is as far away from the Wall as you can be.

 

“Count yourself blessed, Damphair,” said Stonehand. “We are going back to sea. The Redwyne fleet creeps toward us. The winds have been against them rounding Dorne, but they’re finally near enough to have emboldened the old women in Oldtown, so now Leyton Hightower’s sons move down the Whispering Sound in hopes of catching us in the rear.”

To me that sounds highly likely that Eurons main ploy has been Oldtown. He wants to lure out the defenders. After that I will leave it as I don't have any real idea what he wants. I believe he does want something in Oldtown and I don't think he cares about the Ironborn in the long term. I think he is tied to the more mystical elements of the story but bringing down the wall, using something from Oldtown, is simply a guess. He could easily get it and sail back up the Western coast of Westeros if he needed to be in close proximity, that isn't a barrier.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany participating in the final battle doesn't have to mean she is saving the day. But the foreshadowing in her case is about as strong as the hints pointing towards the Red or Purple Wedding so I'd say we can expect her to play a role in the fight against the Others. Considering that her dream made it be her Trident it might be that she will die there as Rhaegar did. But then, the Others don't have their own Robert Baratheon so she might live. Not to mention that she is no warrior and will thus only encounter the enemy on dragonback.

I actually think it is much, much stronger and much less subtle than the foreshadowing for either of the weddings in terms of prophecy. Trying to follow prophecy is very dangerous though. I can easily see George misleading the reader just as he likes to mislead his characters.

[kissdbyfire]

@Lord Varys, like I said, it was their phrasing of the whole thing that got me wondering.

Show spoilers from s 5.

Spoiler

And it's so easy to see why they'd go with their own ideas/"interpretations"! They do it all the time.  Or at least did when I still watched the show. And while there's incredible shock value in a child burning alive - a lovely and likeable child, no less! - if said d child is burned by her own dad a few mins after a beautiful and heartwarming scene, the shock value increases tenfold. 

But we shall see, sooner rather than later, I hope. 

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

@Lord Varys, like I said, it was their phrasing of the whole thing that got me wondering.

Show spoilers from s 5.

  Hide contents

And it's so easy to see why they'd go with their own ideas/"interpretations"! They do it all the time.  Or at least did when I still watched the show. And while there's incredible shock value in a child burning alive - a lovely and likeable child, no less! - if said d child is burned by her own dad a few mins after a beautiful and heartwarming scene, the shock value increases tenfold. 

But we shall see, sooner rather than later, I hope. 

Sure, but again - here they credit George for the whole thing. They don't do this with other stuff they have invented.

[Lost Melnibonean]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't know. Ran has himself referred to that interview in some postings. He stated that George had told him the three-eyed crow was Bloodraven for a very long time, and that Bloodraven as a character came much later, only in TSS.

If you could point me to the source for your head cannon, that would be great. If you can't I'm gonna go with what he actually said. Thanks. 

[Therae]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Selyse's one redeeming quality in the books is her love for her daughter. Stannis never interacts with her but Selyse clearly cares for her. She would never approve of the idea to kill her, especially not should she actually believe Stannis is dead. Because then Shireen would be queen, and she could now play a much larger role as the mother of the new queen.

Not trying to be contrary, I just really never got a sense of any motherlove from Selyse, just a whole lot of religious fervor with a healthy dose of royal entitlement. However, I have to agree with your point that Selyse would certainly support Shireen as queen.

And, as I said, I don't really expect it won't be Stannis' decision; I just found the idea of Shireen burning after his death intriguing and I was spitballing possibilities.